The data is based on responses from 404 senior executives at middle market firms in a survey conducted from April 3 to April 24.
Key takeaways
Overall business conditions remained solid as the top-line sentiment indicator eased to 131.3 from 134.0 in Q2.
Fifty-two percent of respondents expect an improvement in the general economy in the second half of the year.
Businesses’ willingness to invest in productivity-enhancing capital expenditures represents a continuing sign of strength in the MMBI survey.
The Middle Market Business Index is created in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Resilience, not recession, is the primary takeaway for the American economy from the most recent RSM US Middle Market Business survey.
Despite a variety of shocks to the real economy over the past two years, overall business conditions remained solid as the top-line sentiment indicator eased to 131.3 in the second quarter, down modestly from the 134.0 in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
RSM US Middle Market Business Index
To put that in perspective, the 131.3 reading was in line with the 2017−2020 period before the pandemic, when the middle market generally thrived following steep federal tax cuts, a large increase in federal spending and low interest rates.
While executives expressed optimism about the economy over the next six months with respect to revenues, earnings and capital expenditures, their current views were tempered by lingering inflation, higher wage costs and the recent disruption among small and regional banks that play a vital role in lending to middle market firms.
We anticipate that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increases will result in capital growing scarce just as credit is tightened in the wake of the recent banking disruption.
How much the real economy can absorb these shocks will almost surely be the difference between slow growth and a recession over the next year.
During the second quarter, evaluations of the economy soured a bit, with only 35% of survey participants indicating an improvement in the general economy, and 42% saying it had deteriorated.
It is important to note that this survey was put to field during a period of financial stress among small and midsize banks that serve many middle market companies. It is fair to state that some of the current evaluations of the general economy differ from the more optimistic views expressed in the survey.
Yet 52% of respondents expect an improvement in the general economy in the second half of the year, which we would attribute to sustained demand by U.S. households for goods and services.
There is approximately $500 billion in excess savings still in household accounts compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to a recent study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve, and that should support solid spending through the end of the year. As long as that spending prevails, middle market business conditions should remain solid.
On the pricing front, 79% of respondents said they had paid higher prices, which is up from 70% previously, while 79% expect to pay higher costs over the next six months.
For prices received, 57% of respondents indicated they had passed along higher prices to customers, with 70% expecting to do so in the second half of the year.
Expectations on revenues and net earnings remain strong amid a modest deterioration in the current quarter. We attribute this to a general compression in profit margins across the economy as lingering inflation continues to increase business costs and a rise in the cost of capital affects firms’ bottom lines.
In the current quarter, 42% of respondents said that gross revenues improved, down from 53% in the first quarter, while 44% indicated an improvement in net earnings, which is down from 49%.
Survey answers imply that 70% expect improvement in gross revenues over the next six months and 65% assume that net earnings will improve over the next six months.
One continuing sign of strength in the MMBI survey has been firms’ willingness to invest in productivity-enhancing capital expenditures. Almost half, or 46%, said that they increased business investment and 60% expect to do so through the end of the year.
Need help evaluating your capital expenditures on technology?
Learn more about implementing technological innovations to enhance your customer experience.
This is a bullish note within the current survey that we think bodes well for middle market firms, even if the economy falls into recession.
The most robust element of the American economy right now is the labor market. Labor demand and higher wages are bringing people off the sidelines and into the workforce.
Not surprisingly, hiring and hiring intentions remain stout, with 50% of respondents saying they increased hiring and 62% indicating they intend to do so over the next 180 days. Fifty-eight percent of survey participants said they increased compensation and 72% said they intend to do so in the near term.
Firms reduced their inventories as one would expect, and a strong majority are getting ready to expand inventory accumulation to get ready for the holiday shopping season. Borrowing conditions remained stable despite the disruption among local and regional banks.
Middle market firms’ optimism about revenue and earnings, as well as increased capital expenditures, reflects an underlying confidence in business conditions looking ahead. Maintaining a healthy credit supply to service this optimism is vitally important to protecting economic growth as companies face continued interest rate, inflation and workforce challenges.
Neil Bradley, executive vice president, chief policy officer and head of strategic advocacy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Midsize companies look for a way forward on digital transformation, MMBI finds
Middle market company executives understand that digital transformation is an important objective, but they are not always backing up their ambitions with action, according to data from the second-quarter MMBI survey.
Almost three-quarters (74%) of all respondents say digital transformation—the large-scale realignment of business operations to take advantage of technology—is either the most important area or among the most important areas of investment for their companies. But a majority (54%) of all respondents say they either are way off from achieving their digital transformation goals or believe it is not relevant to their businesses to even begin a digital transformation program.
Special report
2023 Middle Market Business Index Cybersecurity
Our latest report finds the middle market remaining a primary target for attacks as the threat environment has evolved over time.
And while artificial intelligence has been the subject of both bold predictions and dire warnings, that cultural buzz has not translated to major changes in the middle market. Just over a quarter (28%) of all respondents say they currently use AI in their businesses. This is less than the 34% of respondents who say they have not discussed using AI or have already decided against utilizing it. In addition, over half (56%) of all respondents have not used ChatGPT or other generative AI tools to support their business.
The survey results imply that in some areas of digital transformation, a gap exists between larger companies (annual revenues of $50 million to $1 billion) and smaller companies (annual revenues of $10 million to $50 million). For example, 56% of larger companies say they have substantially achieved their digital transformation goals, a percentage that is more than double the 27% of smaller companies who say the same thing. And two-thirds of bigger companies (66%) say they have a clear strategy that addresses their IT and digital transformation goals, noticeably more than the 41% of smaller companies who say they have a defined plan.
RSM contributors
We are struggling to stay ahead of the curve regarding technology, as it plays a crucial role in driving efficiency and productivity.
Retail trade executive
Understanding financial risk exposure, particularly regarding currency fluctuations, commodity prices and geopolitical instability.
Finance executive
Cash flow is a major issue in our industry, especially for long-term projects. It's critical for me to understand the project budget, timeline and payment milestones in order to ensure that the financial aspects of the project are properly managed.
Construction executive
One of our main obstacles involves locating new customers.
Finance executive
Having difficulty in recruiting and retaining quality faculty due to a lack of competitive salaries or benefits.
Education executive
As the management of technology is quickly transforming the health care sector, handling new technological advances is necessary to offer services successfully.
Health care executive
Managing inventory for our company is becoming more difficult.
Retail executive
Managing operational costs to ensure the company is competitive and profitable.
Manufacturing executive
SWIPE TO VIEW
General economy
General economy performance
Thirty-five percent of respondents said the economy had improved in the second quarter, down from 45% in the previous one.
Gross revenues
Gross revenues performance
Forty-two percent of companies saw revenue increase in the second quarter, down 11 points from the prior quarter; however, 70% anticipate an increase in the next six months.
Net earnings performance
Net earnings performance
Forty-four percent of midsize companies saw net earnings increases, down slightly from 49% in the previous quarter.
Investments performance
Aggregate capital expenditures/investments performance
Sixty percent of respondents said they would continue to boost capital outlays over the next six months; 46% did so in the second quarter.
Overall hiring
Overall hiring levels
Midsize organizations boosted payrolls in the second quarter, with 50% increasing hiring, up from 47% in the prior quarter.
Employee compensation
Employee compensation
Fifty-eight percent of midsize companies gave raises in the second quarter, holding steady with last quarter. ose expecting to boost wages over the next six months increased to 72% from 64%.
Access to credit
Access to credit
The ability to borrow dipped slightly in the second quarter, with 27% of respondents indicating an improvement in access to credit, down from 31% in the previous quarter.
Planned borrowing
Planned borrowing
Forty-three percent of companies expect to borrow money over the next six months, up slightly from 41% in the previous period.
Amount paid for goods
Amount paid for goods and services
Seventy-nine percent of middle market companies paid more for goods and services in Q2, up from 70% in Q1.
Amount received for goods
Amount received for goods and services
More than half (57%) of midsize firms polled were able to charge more for goods and services in the second quarter, up slightly from 56% in the previous quarter.
Inventory levels
Inventory levels
Forty-eight percent of firms with inventories saw their supplies increase in the second quarter, down from 52% in the prior period.
- General economy
- Gross revenues
- Net earnings performance
- Investments performance
- Overall hiring
- Employee compensation
- Access to credit
- Planned borrowing
- Amount paid for goods
- Amount received for goods
- Inventory levels
General economy performance
Thirty-five percent of respondents said the economy had improved in the second quarter, down from 45% in the previous one.
Gross revenues performance
Forty-two percent of companies saw revenue increase in the second quarter, down 11 points from the prior quarter; however, 70% anticipate an increase in the next six months.
Net earnings performance
Forty-four percent of midsize companies saw net earnings increases, down slightly from 49% in the previous quarter.
Aggregate capital expenditures/investments performance
Sixty percent of respondents said they would continue to boost capital outlays over the next six months; 46% did so in the second quarter.
Overall hiring levels
Midsize organizations boosted payrolls in the second quarter, with 50% increasing hiring, up from 47% in the prior quarter.
Employee compensation
Fifty-eight percent of midsize companies gave raises in the second quarter, holding steady with last quarter. ose expecting to boost wages over the next six months increased to 72% from 64%.
Access to credit
The ability to borrow dipped slightly in the second quarter, with 27% of respondents indicating an improvement in access to credit, down from 31% in the previous quarter.
Planned borrowing
Forty-three percent of companies expect to borrow money over the next six months, up slightly from 41% in the previous period.
Amount paid for goods and services
Seventy-nine percent of middle market companies paid more for goods and services in Q2, up from 70% in Q1.
Amount received for goods and services
More than half (57%) of midsize firms polled were able to charge more for goods and services in the second quarter, up slightly from 56% in the previous quarter.
Inventory levels
Forty-eight percent of firms with inventories saw their supplies increase in the second quarter, down from 52% in the prior period.
More special reports based on our proprietary MMBI research
Middle Market Business Index
Resilience, not recession, is the primary takeaway for the American economy from the most recent RSM US Middle Market Business survey.
Cybersecurity special report | MMBI
RSM’s annual cybersecurity report shows that reported breaches fell slightly in the middle market last year, but significant risks remain prevalent.
Infrastructure special report | MMBI
Executives at midsize companies agree that the state of the nation’s infrastructure is hampering economic growth, according to RSM’s special report.
ESG special report | MMBI
The MMBI special ESG report shows that companies are refocusing their policies to make more of an impact and achieve specific goals.
Workforce special report
Three years after the start of the pandemic, remote work is becoming a permanent fixture among American middle market businesses, according to our recent survey.
2022 supply chain report
RSM data shows how supply chain disruptions are affecting middle market companies.
SWIPE TO VIEW
ABOUT THE RSM US MIDDLE MARKET BUSINESS INDEX
In partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, we've collected data on middle market firms since 2015 through quarterly surveys conducted by The Harris Poll.
The RSM US Middle Market Business Index provides a leading measure on the performance of businesses that make up the heart and soul of our country's economy.
Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.
RSM US LLP and The Harris Poll have collected data on middle market firms from a quarterly survey that began in the first quarter of 2015. The survey is conducted four times a year in the first month of each quarter: January, April, July and October. The survey panel, the Middle Market Leadership Council, consists of 700 middle market executives, and is designed to accurately reflect conditions in the middle market. The data is weighted to ensure that they correspond to the U.S. Census Bureau data on the basis of industry representation.
A reading above 100 for the MMBI indicates that the middle market is generally expanding; below 100 indicates that it is generally contracting. The distance from 100 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or contraction.
The survey is conducted four times a year. The survey panel, the Middle Market Leadership Council, consists of 700 middle market executives, and is designed to accurately reflect conditions in the middle market.
The data for each quarter are weighted to ensure that they correspond to the U.S. Census Bureau data on the basis of industry representation.
The MMBI is borne out of the subset of questions in the survey that ask middle market executives to report the change in a variety of indicators.
The MMBI is a composite index computed as an equal weighted sum of the diffusion indexes for 10 survey questions plus 100 to keep the MMBI from becoming negative. The index is designed to capture both current and future conditions, with five questions on middle market executives' recent experience and five on their expectations for future activity.
The survey panel, the Middle Market Leadership Council, consists of 700 middle market executives, and is designed to accurately reflect conditions in the middle market.
The data for each quarter are weighted to ensure that they correspond to the U.S. Census Bureau data on the basis of industry representation.
RSM US LLP and The Harris Poll have collected data on middle market firms from quarterly surveys that began in the first quarter of 2015. The survey is conducted four times a year, in the first month of each quarter: January, April, July and October. The survey panel, the Middle Market Leadership Council, consists of 700 middle market executives, and is designed to accurately reflect conditions in the middle market.
- What are your expectations regarding the general economy?
- What are your expectations regarding your organization’s gross revenues?
- How would you describe the level of your organization’s most recent quarter net earnings results?
- What are your expectations regarding your organization’s aggregate capital expenditures or investments?
- What are your expectations regarding your organization’s overall hiring levels?
- How would you describe your organization’s current employee compensation level on average?
- How would you describe current access to credit?
- What are your expectations regarding your organization’s planned borrowing?
- How would you describe the current general level of prices received?
- What are your expectations regarding your organization’s planned inventory levels?
Now that enough observations exist, each question in the index will be seasonally adjusted using the Census X-13 method in order to remove periodic fluctuations associated with recurring calendar-related events. Seasonally adjusted values for questions will make it easier to observe underlying fundamental changes, particularly those associated with economic expansions and contractions.
For this adjustment, the "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of each index question will be tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component will be left unadjusted.
Make your voice heard
Join the RSM Market Insights Community, a network of leaders shaping the future of business.
