The U.S. economy is slowing, but a recession is unlikely
The American economy is slowing, but the chance of a recession over the next 12 months has declined as expansionary fiscal policies start to take effect, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US, and Neil Bradley, executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
The chance of a recession “is at about 30% over the next 12 months,” Brusuelas said during a wide-ranging discussion of the American economy on Sept. 23. That forecast, he said, is a reduction from 40% only recently, thanks in part to changes like full retroactive business expensing, which will help spur the economy.
But until growth kicks in, the economy, and the labor market, will be treading water.
“Companies aren’t firing, they aren’t laying off, but they are pretty slow to hire,” Bradley said, in a reflection of the uncertainty that businesses face in the economy.
For the full economic discussion, check out the accompanying video.
