The Real Economy

The Real Economy: December 2022

The year-ahead economic forecast: Girding for a recession

In this month’s Real Economy, RSM offers its annual economic forecast for the coming year and helps middle market businesses understand the changing economic landscape.

RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas says there is a 65% probability of a recession next year, most likely in the second half. But with businesses continuing to face a chronic shortage of labor, the unemployment rate will not reach as high as in past recessions, and that will help blunt the impact of the downturn.

How long will inflation last? The answer to that can be found in the housing market, where rising costs and prices are proving to be persistent, write Brusuelas and RSM U.S. economist Tuan Nguyen.

All of this is happening at a time of profound change in the global economy, Brusuelas writes. The hyper-globalization that has dominated the global economy over the past 30 years is giving way to an era of regionalization that is radically altering the flow of trade, investment and technology. For the middle market, that means a new era of higher costs and insufficient aggregate supply.

Finally, Brusuelas urges policymakers and middle market businesses not to lose sight of the importance of making productivity-enhancing investments that will pay off down the road. 

We look at these issues and more in the December issue of The Real Economy.

December features

RSM contributors

What inflation-related challenges is the U.S. economy facing? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Watch our Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley discuss insights on these topics and more in their most recent discussion: The Real Economy: Economic headwinds and the middle market.

Recorded webcast | Originally aired Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022

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The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

The voice of the middle market

Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.