The Real Economy: June 2024

Global central bank outlook: Reducing policy rates to bolster economic activity

With inflation moderating and growth stagnating around the world, conditions are ripe for central banks to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy and foster growth.

In the June issue of The Real Economy, RSM’s global team of economists is offering its forecast for the world's major central banks. From the Federal Reserve to the European Central Bank to the Reserve Bank of India, central banks are all on the verge of a regime change that will have a major impact on the global economy and middle market.

One of the outgrowths of elevated interest rates in the United States has been the surging value of the American dollar. The elevated level has put pressure on American exports, raising their prices, and prompted calls in some quarters for a currency intervention to bring it lower. Such a move, though, would be misguided, writes RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas. Not only would it put upward pressure on prices and weaken demand in the U.S., but it would be doomed to fail, he writes. 

We think the strong dollar policy—defined as a strong currency that is in the national interest of the United States—is in the interest of middle market firms and consumers: It puts downward pressure on prices, bolstering demand and employment.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist

Finally, Brusuelas offers his analysis of what the use of a modified Taylor Rule—a method used by central banks to set interest rates—would bring if central banks around the world adopted it.

We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.

Inside the June issue

Assessing central bank policy in the post-pandemic economy
Following two of the largest economic shocks of recent history, global central banks are approaching a critical juncture.

RSM contributors


Cybersecurity 2024 special report

Our annual insights into cybersecurity trends, strategies and concerns shaping the marketplace for midsize businesses in an increasingly complex risk environment.

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Timely economic analysis and trends to help middle market businesses succeed

Q2 2024 Middle Market Business Index (MMBI)

Sentiment improves as firms look to invest

Key findings:

  • The MMBI rose to 132.0 in the second quarter from 130.7 in the prior period.
  • Forty percent of senior executives indicated that the economy had improved.
  • A majority of executives intend to boost capital expenditures over the next six months.

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The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

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