The Real Economy

The Real Economy: December 2023

U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024

Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024.

In the December issue of The Real Economy, RSM economists Joe Brusuelas and Tuan Nguyen offer their outlook for the coming year. They expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for strong productivity and growth in the years ahead as inflation eases back to a much more tolerable 2.5% to 3% range.

Most important, Brusuelas and Nguyen are forecasting four 25 basis-point cuts in the federal funds policy rate starting in June, which would bring it into a range between 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year with risk of a lower rate.

For gross domestic product, their baseline forecast expects a modest easing in growth following the torrid 2.9% year-ago pace in the third quarter. Growth will then pick back up to at or above trend 1.8% in the second half of 2024 and possibly accelerate into 2025. 

We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for strong productivity and growth in the years ahead as inflation eases back to a much more tolerable range.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist

Also in this issue, RSM’s Mike Graziano offers his outlook for the holiday shopping season, which he forecasts will have lower, but still strong, growth.

We look at these issues and more in this issue of The Real Economy.

Inside the December issue

Industry spotlight: Consumer goods

RSM contributors

The Real Economy Livestream series

Middle market outlook: Gearing up for 2024

Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic outlook and what middle market companies should anticipate in the coming months.

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Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2023

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1:00 p.m. ET | Noon ET

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Livestream event

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Timely economic analysis and trends to help middle market businesses succeed

Special report

2023 RSM US Middle Market Business Index Special Report: Funding

Rising real interest rates are pushing up the cost of commercial and industrial loans, making it harder for
middle market firms to meet payroll and finance their expansion, according to findings in the third-quarter
RSM US Middle Market Business Index survey.

Find out how businesses are coping with the higher cost of capital in our special report.

Also from The Real Economy

Monthly economic analysis report for the US middle market

The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

The voice of the middle market

Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.