The Real Economy: December 2024

U.S. economic outlook for 2025

As the U.S. economy enters a new year, it faces a significant structural change driven by higher interest rates, persistent inflation and a more restrictive policy framework, particularly in trade relations.

RSM's Joe Brusuelas, in his baseline forecast, projects that the economy will grow at a 2.5% rate, unemployment will be 4.2% and inflation will ease to 2.2%. Additionally, he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower its policy rate to 3.5% and the 10-year Treasury yield will finish the year at 4.5%.

Brusuelas assigns a 55% probability to this baseline scenario, while also acknowledging the possibility of stronger economic performance (30% probability) or a recession (15% probability).

Given the expansionary fiscal policy—which includes tax cuts and increased spending, as well as less regulation—we think that the economy may continue to outperform.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

An important element of this evolving economic landscape is the shift in global trade dynamics. Brusuelas identifies an emerging coalition of nations—call it the dollar bloc—aligned with American economic and security interests. He examines what is driving these changes and their potential impact on middle market businesses and broader U.S. economic conditions.

We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.

Inside the December issue:

RSM contributors

The Real Economy Livestream series

Post-election economic outlook: Trends and insights for middle market businesses

Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the economic outlook in a post-election climate.

Wednesday, December 4, 2024

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Timely economic analysis and trends to help middle market businesses succeed

Special Report

The RSM Middle Market Sustainability Survey 2024: US and Canada

Numerous regulations are making sustainability a larger compliance issue.

Tax incentives are one part of companies’ broader decarbonization efforts.

Training is the most common action taken toward compliance, but also the top hurdle.

Also from The Real Economy

Monthly economic analysis report for the US middle market

The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

The voice of the middle market

Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.