The United States is facing a 40% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, according to the new RSM US Recession Monitor. Even with the reprieve from some of the highest tariffs on imports from China, the American economy will experience a significant slowdown, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the June issue of The Real Economy.

To explain what is happening in the economy, Brusuelas looks at the widening U.S. 30-year less 10-year Treasury spread in the bond market. Typically, a dynamic like this suggests faster growth and inflation. But this time around, Brusuelas notes, the widening spread reflects concerns over higher government deficits and trade taxes. 

Also in this issue, RSM senior analyst Marissa Schlagenhauf analyzes the volatility of capital markets in the second quarter. Finally, in our Market Minute series, Brusuelas and RSM senior analyst David Carter look at several key indicators of a global economy in transition, including the bond market, shifting fiscal policy, and the oil and currency markets.

We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.