The growing risk of a recession in the U.S. economy is becoming harder to ignore with the probability rising to 55% over the next 12 months primarily due to the cumulative impact of recent economic shocks, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the May issue of The Real Economy.
While there may still be time to mitigate the damage from the evolving tariff regime, it is too late to prevent the broader economy from slowing significantly. In addition, Brusuelas points to the declining value of the dollar and the fall in safe haven assets like U.S. Treasury notes. It's a result, he writes, of declining confidence in the American economy.
