The Real Economy: July-August 2025

Shifting trade policies lead global economy toward divergent rate paths

As uncertainty swirls around the global economy amid a shifting trade landscape, the world’s major central banks are taking divergent paths on interest rates, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the July-August issue of The Real Economy. Brusuelas, along with RSM's global team of economists, offers RSM’s forecast for global central banking in the second half of the year, including analysis from England, India and Australia.

Also in this issue, Brusuelas analyzes how the rising uncertainty is prompting investors to question the soundness of the American dollar and dollar-based assets, and examines the impact on global supply chains and energy markets.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve will have to determine whether tariffs will be a one-time price shock or turn into sustained inflation. But in Europe and elsewhere, central bankers will be dealing with the risks of slowing growth and disinflation caused by the tariffs, which will only add to the pressure to cut rates.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

Finally, in our Market Minute series, Brusuelas and RSM Canada’s Tu Nguyen look at indicators of a global economy in transition, from the price of a can of green beans to the value of the U.S. dollar to the impact of tariffs on Canada.

Read our global team’s analysis of these topics in the latest edition of The Real Economy.

Inside the July-August issue

RSM contributors

The Real Economy Livestream series

Trade wars and the cost of doing business

Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the latest economic trends affecting middle market businesses.

Wednesday, July 9, 2025 

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