The Real Economy: April 2025

The rising risk of an inventory correction

The trade and tariff uncertainties that continue to challenge domestic and global economies are significantly affecting middle market businesses.

In response, businesses have been stockpiling goods in advance, helping to drive the trade-in-goods deficit to record levels. In addition, this inventory buildup is setting up the risk of a modest inventory correction if demand slows, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the April issue of The Real Economy. 

The American economy is strong enough to absorb the volatility caused by the trade uncertainty. We expect GDP growth to decline to 1.5% in the current quarter, with a risk of a slower pace, below 1%.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

Also in this issue, Brusuelas continues his analysis of a global economy in transition with his “Market minute” series. Covering topics from trucking and oil production to foreign exchange and financial markets, Brusuelas captures the breadth of these economic changes, an industry at a time.

We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.

Inside the April issue

Perspective
The risk of an inventory correction is rising
Producers and wholesalers have prepared for higher tariffs by buying goods in advance, which is creating the conditions for a modest inventory correction should demand slow.
Perspective
Quantum of solace: Inflation cools ahead of tariff-induced price increases
Inflation cooled in February, but consumers aren’t buying it.
Perspective
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
A primary goal of the new administration is to narrow the United States’ trade and current account deficits, which have continued to grow.
Perspective
Market Minutes
Notes on a global economy in transition

RSM contributors

The Real Economy Livestream series

Tariffs, trade and other economic trends

Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the latest economic trends affecting middle market businesses.

Recorded March 14, 2025

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Timely economic analysis and trends to help middle market businesses succeed

Special Report

The RSM Middle Market Sustainability Survey 2024: U.S. and Canada

Numerous regulations are making sustainability a larger compliance issue.

Tax incentives are one part of companies’ broader decarbonization efforts.

Training is the most common action taken toward compliance, but also the top hurdle.

Also from The Real Economy

Monthly economic analysis report for the US middle market
Perspective
The risk of an inventory correction is rising
Producers and wholesalers have prepared for higher tariffs by buying goods in advance, which is creating the conditions for a modest inventory correction should demand slow.
Perspective
Quantum of solace: Inflation cools ahead of tariff-induced price increases
Inflation cooled in February, but consumers aren’t buying it.
Perspective
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
A primary goal of the new administration is to narrow the United States’ trade and current account deficits, which have continued to grow.
Perspective
Market Minutes
Notes on a global economy in transition
Perspective
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the United States, the new administration has set out to change this equation with nothing less than a rebalancing of the global economy.
Perspective
Rising rates and volatility signal a regime change in the global economy
The era of low inflation and low interest rates has given way to a new regime of scarce capital and higher inflation.

The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

The voice of the middle market

Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.

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