United States

The Real Economy: Volume 48

Economic growth outlook for 2019

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In 2019, the defining economic narratives for the middle market likely include continued trade tensions, more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, a further decline in the unemployment rate to 3.4 percent and wage growth of 4 percent.

Our forecast calls for a modest growth of 2.2 percent from our 2018 forecast of 3.1 percent. With 2019’s impending deceleration comes the risk of a much more pronounced slowdown in overall economic activity due to the intensification of the U.S.-China trade spat despite a 90-day cease-fire agreed upon by the two governments.

In this issue of The Real Economy, we take a closer look at key economic factors to watch in 2019 such as employment, financial conditions, domestic and international risks, fiscal policy and more. In addition, we provide deeper cuts on specific industry outlooks and explore the tariff exemption process. Download the full report.

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