Joe Brusuelas in the News
Recent interviews and contributions featuring RSM's chief economist
Joe Brusuelas is frequently asked to speak with reporters or provide commentary on the outlook for the middle market economy, including how proposed or recently enacted policy change will impact middle market businesses.
Read highlights from some of those recent conversations below. See our full media archives for more.
CNN Business, Who do you believe? The American consumer or the bond market?, Julia Horowitz, 08/16/2019: Talk about whiplash. Stocks ended in positive territory on Thursday — but for investors, it's clearly getting harder to separate the signal from the noise…RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas says industrial production served as a wakeup call "just as one got that warm fuzzy feeling from retail sales." He predicts the US manufacturing sector is either entering a recession — or it's already in one.
POLITICO, The big recession problem, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 08/16/2019: …THE TWO ECONOMIES — RSM Joe Brusuelas: “A robust consumer, driven by strong real compensation in the first quarter of the year, continued to prop up the American economy, even as the domestic manufacturing sector contracted by 0.5% on a year-ago basis. … [W]e are keeping our 1.5% forecast for current quarter GDP.”
Associated Press, Weak global growth likely to mean US slowdown, not recession, Christopher Rugaber, Josh Boak and Bani Sppra, 08/15/2019: How fragile is the global economy?…American manufacturers appear to be either in a recession or on the verge of a downturn, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the consultancy RSM. The best possible boost for U.S. factories would be if Trump pulled back on trade hostilities with China and achieved a trade deal, Brusuelas said. Also picked up U.S. News & World Report and ABC News, among others.
CNN Business, What is the yield curve -- and why it matters, Paul R. La Monica, 08/15/2019: The bond market is flashing a big neon caution sign. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds dipped below the yield on the US 2-year bond Wednesday…"The business cycle has entered its final stages and recession risks are elevated," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM, in a report Wednesday. "In our estimation, there would need to be a clear signal of a permanent cessation of trade hostilities between Washington and Beijing to turn around risk and business sentiment," he added. Similar articles also featured in The Washington Post, Benzinga, Yahoo! Finance and Politico.
Nightly Business Report, Seniors & Rising Debt Levels, 08/14/2019: A new report shows older Americans owe a lot more money now than just a decade ago. Could that make retirement a predicament? Joining us to discuss this topic is Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US.
NPR.org, Dow Tumbles 800 Points As Bond Markets Signal Recession, 08/14/2019: Stocks plunged Wednesday on deepening worries over a slowdown in the global economy…I spoke to Joe Brusuelas. He’s the chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, and he said a lot rides on the U.S. and China quickly dialing back these disputes on trade. “Essentially, if the trade war is not rolled back in the near term, I think we’re going to have a very difficult 2020.”
Washington Post, Trump finally acknowledges his tariffs could hit consumers, Heather Long, 08/13/2019: President Donald Trump has repeated the same mantra for months: The Chinese are paying the full price of his tariffs. It's a line that the overwhelming majority of economists and business owners say is false, but Trump kept saying it - until Aug. 13…"We are all just one tweet away from significant volatility," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in a note to clients. "The idea that this is a major source of relief to the economy is not tethered to empirical reality."
Associated Press, A heightened US-China financial war imperils global economy, 08/06/2019: Just what the fragile global economy didn’t need: An unpredictable escalation in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, one that spreads the conflict to currency markets, threatens to involve other countries and raises the risk of a global recession…“We haven’t been on this terrain since the 1930s,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM. Also picked up in New York Times, Yahoo! Finance and ABC News, among other others.
Axios, The U.S.-China trade war could get much worse, Dion Rabouin, 08/06/2019: Stocks continued their sell-off overnight as fears of further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war were realized after markets closed on Monday…What they're saying: "These types of beggar-thy-neighbor policies were a hallmark of the Great Depression and caused a much larger economic downturn in its aftermath," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in the Los Angeles Times, MSN, Seeking Alpha, and Forbes, among others.
POLITICO, How to crush a market rally, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 08/02/2019: July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 165K down from 224K in June…RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas: “The U.S. economy likely generated roughly 150,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The July employment report—due to be released by the government Friday—is traditionally impacted by seasonal adjustments that will likely include sharp slowing in education and government hiring.
Yahoo! Finance, What's next for markets as the fed cuts rates for the first time since 2008, 08/01/2019: Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Andy Serwer, and Brian Cheung join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Center for Economic & Policy Research Dean Baker. NOTE: Other video clips from the hour-long “On the Move” segment featuring Joe can be found here: clip 1 and clip 2. Related article also featured here.
POLITICO, Fed delivers a hawkish cut, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 08/01/2019: Fed does a hawkish cut — The Fed delivered exactly the quarter point rate cut markets expected but Chair Jerome Powell’s description of the move as a “mid-cycle adjustment" disappointed Wall Street and sent stocks sharply lower. As predicted, it was not enough for President Trump, who applauded the end of quantitative tightening but wants more aggressive cuts. Powell appeared to dampen those hopes suggesting hikes could still come rather than more cuts. He also did not have the yield curve impact he wanted…RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Reductions or increases in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate are often like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil; it may get the job done but the fallout is always widespread and sure to cause a commotion.”
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas Talks Fed Rate Cut Probabilities, 07/31/2019: Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Andy Serwer, and Brian Cheung join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Center for Economic & Policy Research Dean Baker.
CNBC, Brusuelas: we're setting ourselves up to win, 07/31/2019: Joe Brusuelas, RSM US Chief Economist, talks about what to expect from the Fed, anticipated market reaction, and more.
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe, RSM's Brusuelas: Global manufacturing sector has fallen into recession, 07/30/2019: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that the domestic economy is far from falling into a recession, but he noted that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is nearing a recession and manufacturing globally is already there. 'It seems silly to me,' Bruselas said, 'to think that what is happening in the global economy won't happen in the United States,' which is why expects extended Fed rate cuts to help stave off sowing global conditions through at least the end of next year.
Investing.com, Gold Stages 11th-Hour Rally Before Highly-Anticipated Rate Cut, Barani Krishnan, 07/30/2019: The gold rush ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut is ringing the tills at the 11th hour for bugs of the yellow metal…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, said in a morning note the Fed vote on rates could yield surprises. “Given the sharp differences of opinion among committee members on the efficacy of a rate cut now as opposed to reserving as much monetary firepower as possible for when the current business cycle ends, there will likely be at least one dissenting voice," Brusuelas said. Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Finance, Benzinga and Seeking Alpha.
POLITICO, The Fed’s real message: Save the economy from Trump, Ben White and Victoria Guida, 07/30/2019: In the case of Donald Trump vs. the U.S. Federal Reserve, the president of the United States is likely to secure a winning verdict this week…“Trump’s trade policies are starting to show up in corporate balance sheets,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “In the third quarter you’d expect to see profit-margin compression across a wider array of earnings reports and the consumer will feel it, which could cause a pullback in consumption. That’s where the problem is for the White House.”
Canadian Accountant, Economy slowing, digital rising, says accounting firm RSM Canada, 07/30/2019: The Canadian economy will slow in the remainder of 2019 and throughout 2020 as the economies of Canada’s global trading partners slows as well…“The numbers show that Canada’s relative openness to immigration is a clear benefit for many middle market businesses,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist, RSM US LLP. “As the digital economy grows, it brings in the right skillsets to help bridge the widening skills gap, but it will also support Canada’s plans for economic growth, where a broad spectrum of diversity and perspectives will develop the country into a major tech and industry player.” Similar article also featured in BOE Report and ABL Advisor.
Marketplace, Global slowdown could hold back U.S. economy, Mitchell Hartman, 07/29/2019: The U.S. economy has already been slowing down this year, without any help from the rest of the planet, thanks in part to the fading effects of the 2017 tax cuts. Now, says economist Joe Brusuelas at RSM consulting, the Trump administration’s escalating tariffs on imports, and other countries’ retaliatory tariffs on our exports, have exposed U.S. farmers and manufacturers to increased economic risk. “That uncertainty tax caused by trade policy and those tariffs caused business fixed investment to contract by 5.5 percent in the second quarter.”
The New York Times, U.S. Economy Grew at 2.1% Rate in 2nd Quarter, G.D.P. Report Says, Ben Casselman, 07/26/2019: Economic growth slowed last spring, but don’t panic: The decade-long expansion has lost some momentum, but there’s little reason to think it is about to stall out…“Obviously, the headwinds are increasing,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a financial consulting firm. Europe is close to a recession or perhaps already in one. A trade deal with China looks to be months away at best. A flare-up in the trade war could be enough to cause a recession, he said. Similar articles also featured in The Wall Street Journal, NBC News, POLITICO, CNBC.com, also here and here), Los Angeles Times, Axios, Reuters and Financial Post, among others.
Wealth Professional, Slowing global economy sets the stage for weaker investment climate – report, Duffie Osental, 07/25/2019: Apprehensions over “endless” trade negotiations and a slowing global economy are factors contributing to a less-accommodative investment climate, according to RSM’s “The Real Economy: Canada” report…“The numbers show that Canada’s relative openness to immigration is a clear benefit for many middle market businesses,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: The tech job slowdown, Steve LeVine, 07/24/2019: While U.S. companies continue to vigorously seek new workers, growth in openings for some hard-core digital jobs — projected to be among the most prominent work in the future economy — have sharply slowed, according to a new report…What's next: What no one disputes is that most people are going to have to undergo fundamental reskilling in order to keep up with the massive changes under way. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tells Axios that companies are rapidly forming in-house reskilling programs, creating "a whole cottage industry coming up to reskill workers."
Consultancy.uk, RSM argues No Deal Brexit a chance for tax cuts, 07/24/2019: With a dreaded No Deal Brexit once again accumulating headlines across the British press, the UK could be in line to endure a recession in or out of the EU. However, according to consultants from RSM, a No Deal would also present a major opportunity for Britain’s largest companies to lobby for tax cuts…As reported by Business Leader, the Beyond Brexit event saw RSM’s US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and the firm’s Brexit lead Partner Simon Hart set out the possible consequences of a No Deal hard Brexit, which could see GDP fall, inflation jump and wage growth slow, leading to a drop in overall living standards. When asked what policy response would be required in the event of a No Deal, Brusuelas said interest rates would need to “go down to zero”, while the Bank of England will have to “act boldly and aggressively” to maintain this for a sustained period.
Seeking Alpha, Global business sentiment tilts to pessimistic, Liz Kiesche, 07/24/2019: Global business sentiment slips to below 100 in OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) economies, implying a pessimistic view of growth, points out RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas. The measure is a leading indicator of U.S. manufacturing sales, he adds.
Zacks, American Consumers & Factories Strengthen Q2 View: 5 Gainers, Tirthankar Chakraborty, 07/17/2019: Retail Sales Pop in June. Consumer spending generally fuels more than two-thirds of economic output…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, pointed out that strong spending at restaurants and online shows consumers’ financial stability to tackle economic uncertainties from overseas. He added that “consumers have a fairly bright outlook at this point, just based on job gains and wage gains.” Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
The Wall Street Journal, Outlook for Second-Quarter Growth Firms as Americans Shop, Factories Perk Up, Sarah Chaney and Harriet Torry, 07/16/2019: American shoppers increased their spending in June and factories picked up production, adding to evidence the U.S. economy is wrapping up a solid second quarter despite challenges from abroad… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said strong spending at restaurants and online shows consumers should help buffer against economic uncertainty from overseas.
Bisnow, In The Corporate Relocation Hunger Games, Texas Is No Longer No. 1, Kerri Panchuk, 07/14/2019: Virginia edged out Texas as the nation's top state for business in CNBC's 2019 annual report… Rising property taxes, labor shortages, educational issues and infrastructure woes are hitting Texas, RSM U.S. LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said.
Axios, Millennials are relandscaping the housing market, Marisa Fernandez, 07/13/2019: Rising home prices, falling savings rates, record debt levels and strict lending practices have contributed to pushing homeownership farther out of reach for aspiring young buyers…What it means: Millennials have changed "the composition of housing starts and the housing market, resulting in the construction of more multifamily dwellings (apartments) than in past cyclical expansions," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, tells Axios.
CNBC, Countdown to Jobs, 07/05/2019: …Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist, discuss today's jobs numbers and other economic indicators.
The Wall Street Journal, What the June Jobs Report Tells Us About the U.S. Economy, Eric Morath and Sarah Chaney, 07/05/2019: Friday’s jobs report holds critical clues to the durability of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history…The three-month average annualized pace has been even slower at 2.73%, according to RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas. “It’s likely that wage growth has peaked in the current business cycle,” he wrote in a recent note to clients.
Investing.com, U.S. Jobs Report Lowers Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts, 07/05/2019: The U.S. employment report for June gave a mostly positive reading, reducing market conviction that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by a full half-point when it meets at the end of the month…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, said he still expected a 25 basis-point cut in July but argued that a half-point cut was "now off the table”.
POLITICO, Morning Money, BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER, 07/03/2019: JOBS DAY PREVIEW — We’re dark on Friday for the June jobs report so an early preview. RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect the labor market will reflect a slower pace of growth through the second quarter, resulting in a below-consensus estimate (165,000) net increase in total employment of 147,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%.
BBC, Good Morning Scotland, 06/26/2019: World leaders are heading to Japan for the 2019 G20 summit due to take place this weekend. The main focus is talks between the U.S. and China with the big question being whether this is just the start of a trade war or the beginning of the end of one… But first, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US…Joe agrees the current focus is on the U.S. and China. Listen to the full segment (starts at 1:48:48 mark).
Yahoo! Finance, Stocks extend gains after record trading season, 06/21/2019: Stocks rallied this week after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a rate cut for the future. The Dow posted its best start to June since 1940. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Brian Cheung, and Pras Subramanian to discuss. Similar article also featured here and here.
Associated Press, Q&A: Stocks soar while bonds are signaling gloom. What's up?, Christopher Rugaber and Stan Choe, 06/21/2019: Why is the stock market so happy and the bond market so gloomy?... “They’re getting the cuts,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, referring to stock market investors who bid up shares on anticipation of the Fed slicing rates. “The U.S. domestic economy is decelerating at an accelerating pace.” Also picked up in CBS News and ABC News, among others.
Bloomberg, Summer Driving Gets More Costly as East Coast Refinery Burns, David Marino and Barbara J Powell, 06/21/18: Gasoline futures jumped the most in more than three months after an explosion and fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery, the largest on the U.S. East Coast and a key supplier to the New York gasoline market…“Any shortage ahead of the peak of the summer driving season does not bode well for U.S. consumer pocketbooks,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said on Twitter.Also picked up in TIME.
CNBC, The Trump economy is starting to look more and more like the Obama economy, Jeff Cox, 06/20/2019: In some key ways, the Donald Trump economy, on fire last year but slowing this year, is starting to resemble the one he inherited from his predecessor…“What you’re seeing is a reassertion of secular stagnation following the one-time sugar-high associated with the tax cut,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, citing a term describing the current state of U.S. growth espoused by former Obama advisor Larry Summers and others.
The Wall Street Journal, Stocks Edge Up as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Jessica Menton, 06/19/2019: U.S. stocks ticked higher and bond yields slid after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted that it could cut interest rates in the months ahead…"Monetary policy is too tight, given the deceleration in the domestic economy, low inflation, contraction in global manufacturing in train and rising policy risks associated with the trade war that looks to spill over into financial markets," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a note Wednesday.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Trump is bullying Powell to lower interest rates. It might have the reverse effect, Tory Newmyer, 06/19/2019: As the Fed kicked off two days of meetings Tuesday to consider whether to cut interest rates, Bloomberg News reported that as recently as February, the White House explored the possibility of demoting Powell from his chairmanship…Those considerations could all be moot, if Trump’s threats amount to bluster — a likelihood, according to Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM. “The White House’s barometer on the economy is the stock market, and, increasingly, the bond market, which would have a negative reaction on even an approach to remove Powell,” he tells me. “So my sense is that’s over.”
CBS News, Fed wary of economic clouds, but leaves interest rates unchanged for now, Irina Ivanova, 06/19/18: The Federal Reserve is holding its benchmark interest rate steady, although policymakers indicate a willingness to loosen the monetary reins if U.S. economic growth sags… "It is clear that any notion of policy normalization has ended and the central bank is setting up to lower rates this year," Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM, said in a note.
POLITICO, Morning Money, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 06/17/18: …FED PREP — RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The Federal Reserve is on the precipice of a major shift in policy as the economy, hiring and wages slow amid a backdrop of muted inflation.”
Axios, Relying on the Fed posse, Steve LeVine, 06/08/2019: The long jobs boom, a pillar of confidence in the U.S. economy, has hit what economists say is a self-inflicted hiccup: President's Trump's multiple trade wars…"There is significant and growing risk a recession will start in the second half of 2020 just in time for the election," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "One should anticipate a new White House offensive against the Fed to be imminent."
Yahoo! Finance, What the weak jobs report says about the state of the economy, 06/07/2019: The unemployment rate remained the same at 3.6% while jobs report posted disappointing numbers…Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist: What the Fed has are economic fundamentals that are deteriorating hat complement the decline in financial conditions. (See link for full clip.)
The Wall Street Journal, Hiring Slowed Dramatically in May, 06/07/2019: Employers added just 75 thousand jobs last month, a lot fewer than expected. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSMUS LLP, says it's a reflection of the global economic slowdown taking place and talks about what it means for Fed policy.
Associated Press, Why Trump’s trade wars are pressuring both economy and Fed, Chris Rugaber, 06/07/2019: A sharp pullback in U.S. hiring for May intensified fears that the economy has weakened and that many employers have grown nervous, in part from President Donald Trump’s escalating trade wars…A rate cut “is a bit of insurance in case the economy deteriorates more quickly,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.
Marketplace, Slowdown in employment is broad-based, Mitchell Hartman, 06/07/2019: The May jobs report from the Labor Department was a disappointment across a number of measures: Employers added 75,000 jobs, about 100,000 below the consensus estimate…But it’s pretty clear from survey data and interviews with business leaders and private-sector economists that some of the pullback in employment over the past several months is due to fear and uncertainty about U.S. trade policy. And there has been measurable weakness in goods-producing business activity (i.e., orders) and employment. It’s what economist Joseph Brusuelas at RSM calls an “uncertainty tax” on businesses.
The Wall Street Journal, Analyst: June Rate Cut a Possibility, Amrith Ramkumar, 06/07/2019: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, says in a note that a rate cut at the Fed's meeting later this month could now be in play. "Once one lifts up the hood on this clunker of a jobs report, the data is even bleaker as the softness that has defined employment in manufacturing has spilled over into the service sector," Mr. Brusuelas writes.
The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics: Employers Tap the Brakes, Jeffrey Sparshott, 06/07/2019: The May employment report wasn't pretty. The U.S. added just 75,000 jobs and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 75,000…What Economists Are Saying: …"Once one lifts up the hood on this clunker of a jobs report, the data is even bleaker as the softness that has defined employment in manufacturing has spilled over into the service sector." —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US LLP.
Investing.com, U.S. Jobs Report Cements Conviction on Fed Rate Cuts, 06/07/2019: The U.S. employment report for May further strengthened markets' conviction that the Federal Reserve will pull an about face and begin easing monetary policy…“The Federal Reserve now has a domestic economic component to add to its decision matrix around the path of rate policy to what is a narrative around deteriorating global economic and financial conditions, an inverted yield curve and falling yields,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting agency RSM US LLP.
Business Insider, US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected in May, Gina Heeb, 06/07/2019: In the latest snapshot of the American economy, the official employment report out Friday showed that hiring slowed sharply in May…"In our estimation the trade wars the United States finds itself ensnared in are going to cause hiring to slow as business sentiment eases, productivity-enhancing capital expenditures fall off, and the damage eventually spills over into the consumer sector," said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM.
CNBC, WRAPUP 1-Strong U.S. jobs growth expected in May, trade tensions a threat, Lucia Mutikani, 06/07/2019: U.S. job growth likely increased solidly in May, with wage gains expected to pick up, showing strength in the labor market before an escalation in trade tensions that analysts have cautioned could pressure an already slowing economy…“The trade wars the United States finds itself ensnared in are going to cause hiring to slow as business sentiment eases, productivity-enhancing capital expenditures fall off, and the damage eventually spills over into the consumer sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US in New York.
Bankrate, The Trump administration’s trade wars are whipping Fed policy back and forth, 06/07/2019: President Donald Trump’s trade wars just might prompt the Federal Reserve rate cut he’s been clamoring for — but for the wrong reasons…“The Trump administration is testing the Fed’s patience, without a doubt,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “We’re not quite to the point where the Fed is ready to engage in a regime change in terms of how it formulates policy and communicates to the market and the public, but the Fed is really stuck between a rock and a hard place.”
Marketplace, Layoff announcements on the rise, report says, Mitchell Hartman, 06/06/2019: …Among U.S. economic sectors, manufacturing is suffering the most and slowing down the fastest as a result of escalating trade wars with multiple trading partners, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “What we’re beginning to see is a slowdown in productivity-enhancing capital investment, which has spilled over into hiring in the manufacturing sector,” Brusuelas said.
The Fiscal Times, Trump’s Latest Mexico Tariffs Could Cost US Consumers $93 Billion, 05/31/2019: President Trump abruptly announced on Thursday new tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, which he said were intended to pressure the country to stop the flow of immigrants across the U.S. southern border…Taking back the tax cuts: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tweeted, “Policy incoherence in action: Increasing taxes to 25% on all Mexican imports would yield $86.6 billion. That would offset more than half of the fading effects of the 2017 TCJA which was designed to boost productivity enhancing investment. Real economy will pay the price.”
Barron's, The Trade War Is Bad News for Small Business, Too, Al Root, 05/28/2019: Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial start of summer—and the start of U.S. driving season, when schools are out and families take some time off. We wanted to speak with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a small business accounting and consulting firm, about the impact gasoline prices have on U.S. consumer spending. But there was a bigger issue to discuss: trade. Brusuelas believed gasoline prices were headed higher after the U.S. yanked Iran import/export waivers at the end of April. But his thinking—about oil prices and economic growth—has changed because he believes the trade spat between the U.S. and China has morphed into a full blown trade war.
MarketWatch, 2-year, 10-year Treasury yields see steepest daily fall in nearly 5 months as trade-war fears spook, Sunny Oh, 05/23/2019: Treasury prices surged on Thursday, pushing yields sharply lower, as nervous investors face signs of global economic weakness and the possibility that U.S.-China trade tensions will last longer than anticipated…The 10-year Treasury yield’s slump on Thursday “reflects a shift in the baseline forecast of institutional investors and the real money crowd on global and domestic growth caused by what looks like an unavoidable escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. Investors are moving to not only reprice U.S. government securities, but values across asset classes based on expectations around margin compression and reduced multiplies,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM, in emailed comments.
Washington Post, China’s retaliation against new Trump tariffs will send U.S. hog farmers into a tailspin, Laura Reiley, 05/17/2019: Chinese buyers canceled a major order for American pork, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday, heightening fears that the U.S.-China trade dispute was set to inflict even more pain on American farmers who have taken a series of hits in Trump’s trade wars…Still, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, thinks pork is an important negotiating tool with China. “If the administration is serious about seeking a deal, that is clearly the path of least resistance,” he said. “Because of African swine fever and their own domestic situation, China doesn’t really have a choice and they will have to fulfill their needs by global supply.”
Associated Press, Escalating trade war causing anxiety in America’s heartland, Blake Nicholson, 05/14/2019: When President Donald Trump began talking about tariffs in 2017, Upper Midwest soybean farmer Jamie Beyer suspected that her crop could become a weapon. Two years later, she and her family are watching the commodity markets on an hourly basis as an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China creates turmoil in rural America…“The domestic stress caused by the administration’s trade policy is nowhere more evident than in the agricultural sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultant RSM. “Should the current policy pathway not be changed, the farm sector is going to experience the greatest downturn since the late 1980s, driven by widespread bankruptcies and consolidation.”
Axios, Soybean farmers dragged deeper into Trump’s trade war, Courtenay Brown, 05/14/2019: Soybean prices sunk to a 10-year low after the trade war escalated and left little hope that China — the world's biggest soybean importer —would resume buying U.S. soybeans…But Joe Brusuelas, an economist at consulting firm RSM U.S., warns "it may be difficult to repair damaged trade connections," causing prolonged pain beyond repair, as Brazil ups its soybean production thanks to more demand from China.
Bankrate, Here’s why low inflation has the Fed concerned right now, Sarah Foster, 05/07/2019: When the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision last week, it let you in on a vexing, unsolved mystery that’s been perplexing U.S. central bankers for the latter half of 10 years: With the best job market in decades, why isn’t there more inflation?... The Fed has historically modeled future inflation for policy using an economic model known as “the Phillips curve.” This theory suggests that the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth typically predicts inflation, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: The wages mystery, Steve LeVine, 05/03/2019: The U.S. economy is confounding: Three months from the longest expansion since such data began being tracked 170 years ago, the economy keeps pumping out strong job growth, and has now pushed down unemployment to a 50-year low…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM (whose numbers are behind the above chart), says that such low monthly jobless figures should deliver greater wage gains. "Nominal wage growth is modest at best compared to previous business cycles late in the expansion."
TD Ameritrade Network, What’s Next After Another Solid Jobs Report, 05/03/2019: ...Joe Brusuelas On The Impact Of The Jobs Report On The Fed's Current Course.
The Wall Street Journal, White House Escalates Feud With Fed, David Harrison and Michael C. Bender, 05/03/2019: Top White House and Federal Reserve officials squared off over interest rates Friday in a public clash over how to manage the economy at a time of strong growth and historically low unemployment…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said it was irresponsible for White House officials to lean on the Fed to cut rates. “Sentiments like that provide a clear and vivid illustration on how critical central bank independence is,” he said.
CBS News, Labor market still humming, as employers add 263,000 jobs, Irina Ivanova, 05/03/2019: Businesses hired 263,000 workers in April, again defying many economists' expectations that a tight labor market would slow job-creation. Economists were expecting about 190,000 jobs to be added for the month…"That does explain why, despite a very low unemployment rate and modest gains in overall growth, the American public remains dissatisfied with where the economy is and where the country is," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM. "That sluggish wage growth feeds into that."
MarketWatch, ‘Boom!’ Economists hail strong jobs report as jobless rate dips to Vietnam draft-era low, Robert Schroeder, 05/03/2019: Here’s what economists are saying about the April employment data, showing a stronger-than-expected 263,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.6%. U.S. stocks DJIA, +0.75% looked set for a stronger start…Joseph Brusuelas of RSM said there’s no case for the Federal Reserve to cut or increase interest rates following Friday’s report. He also called wages disappointing but began his tweets by saying “Boom!” and noting the strong headline number and drop in jobless rate.
Investing.com, Inflation-Free Jobs Surge in April Plays to Fed Narrative, 05/03/2019: The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in April while wage growth held steady, bolstering belief that the economy is still on an upward path without creating undue inflationary pressures…“Policy implications are that the market got out ahead of itself on pricing in a rate cut,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP.
Seeking Alpha, Fed: Economic growth stronger, inflation lower than was expected, 05/01/2019: "Economic growth and job creation have somewhat stronger than we expected," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says in his opening comments for the press conference. For March through December core inflation was at or close to 2%, and at March fell to about 1.6% inflation for the past 12 months…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, comments that his base case is for no policy move until 2021.
Business Insider, GDP growth smashed expectations at the beginning of 2019. But economists say the upswing probably won't last, Gina Heeb, 04/27/2019: Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced in the country, grew at a far faster pace than expected in the first quarter. But the broad reading may have masked pockets of weakness in the economy…"Put an asterisk next to it as the first quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary narrowing of the trade deficit and a one-time increase in government sponsored construction," said Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM, a financial-consulting company.
Associated Press, Outlook for the US economy and stock market brightens, Christopher Rugaber and Stan Choe, 04/26/2019: The worries that hung ominously over the U.S. economy early this year appear to have lifted. And that sunnier picture has helped bolster confidence in the stock market — driving the benchmark S&P 500 index to another record high Friday…“We know this is not going to be sustainable,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.
The Washington Post, U.S. economy feels like the 1990s, but with more inequality, less readiness for a downturn, Heather Long, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy expanded at a strong 3.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019, the government reported Friday, blowing past expectations and prompting celebration among President Trump and his advisers…“Today’s economy is not anywhere close to the late 1990s,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM. “We are not seeing the increases in productivity and wages that we saw in that period when everyone called Alan Greenspan the ‘maestro.’ ”
The New York Times, Overcoming Doubts, U.S. Economy Finds a Way Forward, Ben Casselman and Jim Tankersley, 04/26/2019: Reports of the economic expansion’s death appear to have been greatly exaggerated…Economists, however, say that expansions do not die of old age — there has to be a cause. And while they expect growth to slow this year, they see few risks on the horizon that are large enough to tip the economy over the edge. “We had a near miss on a recession, but we didn’t have one last year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a financial consulting firm. “We won’t have one this year. I think this is a good place for the economy to be.”
The New York Times, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.2% Rate in First Quarter, Ben Casselman, 04/26/2019: Rumors of the economic expansion’s death appear to have been greatly exaggerated. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Friday…“We had a near miss on a recession, but we didn’t have one last year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a financial consulting firm. “We won’t have one this year. I think this is a good place for the economy to be.”
Reuters, WRAPUP 1-Exports, inventories seen boosting U.S. first-quarter growth, Lucia Mutikani, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors…“The composition of the data will not look favorably on domestic economic activity, nor provide a positive forward look at current quarter activity,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Policymakers will likely look past this growth report when formulating rate policy."
CNN Business, US economy posts strong first quarter, but consumer spending slows, Lydia DePhillis, 04/26/2019: The US economy grew at a much better than expected rate in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday…One looming question: Will these surprising numbers change the Federal Reserve's stated plans to hold off on interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year? Not if they look at the underlying numbers, writes Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with the accounting firm RSM US.
MarketWatch, GDP ‘stomped’ estimates, but some factors appear unsustainable, economists say, Robert Schroeder, 04/26/2019: Here’s what economists are saying after the Commerce Department reported first-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2%...Joseph Brusuelas of RSM said Fed policymakers would “look right past” the top-line number, and predicted no interest-rate hikes or cuts until after the presidential election. He also said the increase in inventories was “non-sustainable.”
MarketWatch, Opinion: Behind that great GDP number, the real economy slumped, Rex Nutting, 04/26/2019: The economy isn’t doing nearly as well as that 3.2% annual growth rate for gross domestic product reported Friday by the Commerce Department…“Fed policy makers are going to look right past that 3.2% top-line number and focus on composition of growth, which will reaffirm its prudent pause,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Investing.com, Stocks - Wall Street Weighs Weak Dow Earnings Against Strong GDP Reading, 04/26/2019: U.S. stocks ticked lower in early trading Friday as disappointing earnings news from Dow components offset better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US, insisted that the numbers were not a game changer for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. “Fed policymakers are going to look right past that 3.2% top-line number and focus on composition of growth, which will reaffirm its prudent pause. No rate hikes or cuts until after the 2020 election,” he said.
Politico, Trump defies doubters with surging economy, Ben White and Victoria Guida, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy is defying dire predictions of a slowdown this year with growth strengthening, wages rising, unemployment falling and markets rocking to new highs. It should be an incumbent president’s dream and a nightmare for those trying to replace him…Should an economic fade happen, Trump’s best ticket to reelection could vanish. “If you are someone who works in politics, you are going to want to scream about the top line on first-quarter growth and privately worry that it may not look so good when the next quarter comes around,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Seeking Alpha, Look at 1.3% growth in Q1 real private demand, economists say, Liz Kiesche, 04/26/2019: Looking deeper into the stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP number, economists are seeing underlying growth somewhat less robust. Increased inventory accumulation of $128.4B and the narrowing trade deficit accounted for the drove the 3.2% top-line growth, says Joseph Brusuelas of RSM.
CFO.com, U.S. Economy Posts Surprise 3.2% GDP Gain, Matthew Heller, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy grew more than expected in the first quarter amid a sharp decline in imports and a buildup of inventories but economists said underlying trends are consistent with an economic slowdown…“Fed policymakers are going to look right past that 3.2% top-line number and focus on the composition of growth, which will reaffirm its prudent pause,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: Jobs of the future flatline, Steve LeVine, 04/23/2019: Job growth was flat for the third straight quarter in what have seemed to be some of the economy's least automatable occupations, such as AI, cybersecurity and environmental work. The trend suggests these occupations, too, are susceptible to economic cooling…Such jobs may be under the same pressure that have already beset other, besieged professions. "I’m not so sure that HR jobs and some software engineering are not subject to automation," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tells Axios.
BNN Bloomberg, Modestly slower growth in Canada compared to 2018: RSM's chief economist, 04/22/2019: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM joins BNN Bloomberg to provide his predictions for the Canadian economy.
Washington Post, A U.S. recession looks less likely in 2020, boosting Trump’s chances of reelection, Heather Long, 04/17/2019: A noticeable shift has taken place on Wall Street and among many economists and business leaders in recent weeks: Fears of an imminent recession have faded and been replaced with cautious optimism, especially about 2020, a trend that bodes well for President Trump as he seeks reelection…“All of the optimism about the economy assumes the U.S.-China trade conflict is rolled back and Mr. Trump doesn’t start imposing auto tariffs on the E.U. and Asia,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM.
Axios, The problem with automation, Steve LeVine, 04/10/2019: A drumbeat of studies has pushed back hard against concern over the accelerated automation of factories and other businesses, predicting that — just as industrial age advances have always done — robots will produce many more jobs than they destroy…"The important elements that I pulled out of the emerging work here is that there is going to need to be a policy response to technological unemployment in the near to medium term," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "During that time span there is likely to be more technological displaced workers than there are jobs created from the integration of artificial intelligence."
CNBC, Brusuelas: Less than zero chance the Fed raises rates this year, 04/09/2019: RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas and CNBC's Steve Liesman discuss the U.S. government's alternative econ data gathering, and whether the Fed will move at all the rest of this year.
Bloomberg Radio, Predictions for the U.S. Economy (Radio), 04/08/2019: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, joins Lisa and Paul to touch on RSM’s GDP forecast and his predictions for the U.S. economy. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
Associated Press, Hiring rebounds as US employers add a solid 196,000 jobs, Christopher Rugaber, 04/05/2019: Hiring in the United States rebounded in March as U.S. employers added a solid 196,000 jobs, up sharply from February’s scant gain and evidence that many businesses still want to hire despite signs that the economy is slowing…The jobs data “are not strong enough to dislodge the Fed from its current policy path,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm.
Associated Press, The Latest: Solid jobs report unlikely to change Fed plans, 04/05/2019: Economists say solid hiring and modest wage gains in Friday’s jobs report for March probably aren’t enough to change the Federal Reserve’s current plans to hold off on additional interest rate hikes…The data in Friday’s report “are not strong enough to dislodge the Fed from its current policy path,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm. Brusuelas expects the Fed will remain on hold “likely through 2020.”
CBS News, Employment bounces back in March with 196,000 jobs added, Irvina Ivanova, 04/05/2019: Business hiring bounced back in March after a disappointing February, with 196,000 jobs added, surpassing economists' expectations…The numbers show "that growth might be slowing but underlying fundamentals remain strong," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting consultancy RSM.
Investing.com, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Provide Sigh of Relief, Supports Fed Patience, 04/05/2019: The U.S. employment report for March provided a sigh of relief after recent signs of weakness in the labor market, while at the same time did not send a powerful enough signal to make markets fear a change in the Federal Reserve’s current “patient” approach to monetary policy…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, came to the same conclusion: “The March employment data and February revision is not strong enough to dislodge the Fed from its current policy path, which is in line with our model that implies that Fed is likely on hold through 2020.”
MarketWatch, Economists see a labor market that keeps on trucking as payrolls bounce back, Robert Schroeder, 04/05/2019: Economists said Friday’s jobs report for March showed a labor market that “keeps trucking along,” as payrolls bounced back from their low levels in February and the U.S. added 196,000 jobs…Joseph Brusuelas of RSM, meanwhile, found the report “meh.” “Its a meh March employment report. While the topline exceed expectations at 196K and the composition of hiring was mixed. Wage gains slowed on the month to a 3mo avg annualized pace of 3%. Real concerns about productivity due to solid hiring and slowing growth.”
Investing.com, U.S. Economy Posts Lowest Job Creation in 18 Months: ADP, 04/03/2019: The U.S. economy added the fewest private sector jobs since October 2017 last month, fueling concerns that the labor market is running out of steam. U.S. private employers added just 129,000 jobs in March, down from 197,000 in February, according to a report by payrolls processor ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) released on Wednesday. Economists had expected a gain of 184,000 jobs…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US LLP, said he was “sticking with” his previous forecast of 155,000 jobs in total employment for March. Even though Brusuelas’ own forecast was lower than consensus, he warned that “slowing economic activity during the first quarter places downside risk on our top-line employment growth forecast.”
Axios, 1 big thing: Kudlow and the Fed, Mike Allen, 03/29/2019: Here's how not normal things are: The White House economic adviser broke with tradition and waded into Federal Reserve rate setting today…"That is the first sign of panic out of the White House of the rapid deceleration in growth that lay ahead in Q1’19 & the year as a whole. This will not be looked at kindly by the Fed nor the fixed income market which will smell the fear in the air." - Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM tells Axios in an email.
Investing.com, U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Revised Down as Economy Loses Steam, 03/28/2019: The U.S. economy grew less than thought in the fourth quarter, according to data published on Thursday that underlined the ongoing slowdown that has extended into 2019. The third estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2%, downwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 2.6%, and a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% reported in the third quarter of last year.…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accountancy firm RSM US LLP, pointed to the softer dynamic in consumption and gross private investment, along with the downward revisions to real final sales and gross domestic income. “All reflect slowing in overall economic activity in December which spilled over into current quarter,” Brusuelas said.
CNBC, The Fed’s policy switch may be too late to save the economy from fading, Jeff Cox, 03/22/2019: The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot this week may be too late to save an economy that is suddenly struggling to avoid grinding to a halt…Likewise, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, figures it will be a “near-miss” on a recession, but said the Fed’s recent actions show it is “preparing for a change in framework.”
WGN Radio, Wintrust Business Lunch, 03/22/2019: …Joe Bruseulas shared the reason behind what will cause the slowdown to the economy (and the rest of the U.S.).
Yahoo! Finance, Fed Dims Economic Outlook, 03/21/2019: The Federal Reserve has dimmed the U.S. economic outlook, and stated it will leave interest rates unchanged. Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, and Brian Cheung join National Taxpayers Union Senior Fellow Mattie Duppler & RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas to discuss. NOTE: Other video clips from the hour-long “On the Move” segment featuring Joe can be found here: clip 1; clip 2; clip 3; clip 4, clip 5 and clip 6.
Washington Post, Federal Reserve cuts growth forecast, signals no more rate hikes in 2019, Heather Long, 03/20/2019: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday suggested it would not raise interest rates in 2019, a dramatic about-face that indicated the central bank’s worries about the economy are intensifying…“The [Fed] is attempting to engineer a soft landing for an economy that rapidly decelerated during the first quarter of 2019 amid global economic headwinds, volatility across asset space, and policy risks associated with U.S. trade policy,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in a blog post. Similar article in Financial Times.
Business Insider, The Fed was 'as dovish as they could be without spooking the market.' Here's what Wall Street is saying., 03/21/2019: With a flurry of ongoing strains, the Federal Reserve now sees the economy growing this year at a slower pace than previously thought…"The Fed is no longer truly concerned, if ever it truly was, about an overheating economy. With inflation risks off the table in the near term, the Fed will begin to turn its attention to using open mouth operations to support financial markets, as investors attempt to ascertain if the current slowdown is a growth head fake or a harbinger of things to come." -Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Yahoo! Finance, Why the Fed's next move could be a rate cut, Javier E. David, 03/20/2019: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes — something market observers and President Donald Trump once widely characterized as a policy error — may become the central bank’s saving grace in the face of a slowing global economy…Earlier this week, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote that weaker data and falling price pressures led him to the conclusion that the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates “should the clearly visible downturn in overall economic activity over the past four months not reverse course.”
Yahoo! Finance, How Fed Chair Powell could make or break the case for a rate cut, Brian Cheung, 03/19/2019: The Federal Reserve will wrap up its second policy-setting meeting of 2019 on Wednesday, where it is not expected to raise rates…RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote March 19 he sees a toned down picture in the data, pointing to drifting inflation expectations and “weakness” in the current pace of economic growth. Brusuelas predicted no rate hikes for 2019, adding that the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates “should the clearly visible downturn in overall economic activity over the past four months not reverse course.”
CNBC, Counting down to jobs, 03/08/2019: Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist, discusses the upcoming jobs report and which numbers matter to the market.
The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics: Bad Jobs Report? Don’t Sweat It., 03/08/2019: U.S. employers added a scant 20,000 jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and hourly wages posted their best annual gain in nearly a decade in February… The U.S. economy has slowed over the past three months and hiring eased along with it. —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US.
MarketWatch, ‘Don’t hit panic’ — economists find the jobs report wasn’t as bad as 20,000 headline suggests, Robert Schroeder, 03/08/2019: Just 20,000 jobs added in February, but unemployment rate falls to 3.8%...Joe Brusuelas of RSM called wage gains the “silver lining” in the report. “Strong monthly gain of 0.4% in wages which brings the 3 month average annualized pace to 3.3 percent. That is the silver lining in an otherwise cloudy report.”
Axios, 1 big thing: An end to the jobs party, Steve Levine, 03/08/2019: A plunge in U.S. jobs growth suggests that the party is nearing an end for American workers, who have enjoyed their best employment conditions in a half century…The big picture: What we are watching is jobs following the economy. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says economic growth is below 1% in the current quarter, and job expansion is slowing, too. "I think that the sizzle has gone out of the steak," he tells Axios.
Axios, Want to cure the trade deficit? Start a recession, Steve Levine, 03/07/2019: The U.S. trade deficit — how much the country buys from abroad, versus how much it sells — rose to a 10-year high last year. And economists surveyed by Axios say there's only one certain way that President Trump can achieve his cherished aim of slashing it: push the economy into recession…The bottom line: As of now, the relatively robust U.S. economy is staving off recession for the rest of the world. The widening trade deficit lowers 2018 GDP growth to 2.9%, 0.3% below previously reported, and that's likely to be the peak before the next economic downturn, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Politico, Signs of economic strain emerge in Trump’s home base, Ben White and Katy O’Donnell, 03/07/2019: The luxury real estate market in Manhattan is sagging. The GOP tax law is hitting real estate markets across the nation…“When you look at the New York metro area, we are moving from an extended period of stagnation to one of outright softening,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, U.S.
Nashville Business Journal, Addressing the No. 1 issue facing middle market businesses, 03/04/2019: What’s keeping middle market business leaders up at night? Lack of qualified labor. With less than one person willing and available to work for every job opening, it’s the tightest labor market in 50 years. How can business leaders think differently to close the labor gap? RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas says automation will be key in addressing labor shortages for middle market business leaders. Watch the video and learn what’s driving today’s labor shortage and ideas to address it.
Axios, 1 big thing: As good as it gets?, Dion Rabouin, 03/01/2019: What's happening: Thanks to the Q4 GDP report, we know how much businesses used their tax windfalls to invest in buildings, machinery or intellectual property since the lower corporate tax rate took effect…What to watch: "We would not be surprised to observe downward revisions in the estimate to business investment given the outright weakness in industrial production and durable goods data through the end of 2018," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm, wrote in a note to clients.
Bankrate, U.S. economy grew 2.6% in the fourth quarter, better than expected, Sarah Foster, 02/28/2019: The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2018 but performed well ahead of expectations, as consumers helped provide a boost and business investment picked up…he economy expanded by 2.9 percent in 2018, based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ calculations. But judging from the way economists measure growth, the economy grew by 3.1 percent last year, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Reuters, WRAPUP 1-Consumers, weak exports seen curbing U.S. fourth-quarter growth, Lucia Mutikani, 02/28/2019: The U.S. economy probably slowed in the fourth quarter, held back by softer consumer spending and weak exports, which could leave 2018 growth just shy of the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual target…“The tax cut was not a game changer, it did not result in a permanent lifting of the trajectory of growth, just a temporary increase,” said Brusuelas, who estimated the tax cut effect peaked in October.
POLITICO, Trump pushes back China deadline, Ben White, 02/25/2019: …RECIPE FOR RECESSION — Economists are mostly notching down their estimates for 2019 but almost none are predicting outright contraction before next year or 2021. But it’s not impossible. MM spoke to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM about how recession could come this year: “The only way we get a recession is if the White House doesn’t strike a deal with China and tariffs go to 25 percent on all $517 billion we import. Then throw 25 percent [auto] tariffs on Europe and Asia. That’s a recipe for near-term recession.”
MarketWatch, Stocks close higher in wake of Fed minutes; Nasdaq matches winning streak from August, Sue Chang and Chris Matthews, 02/20/2019: Stock indexes closed moderately higher Wednesday, with the Nasdaq up for an eighth session in a row, following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, which showed the policy-setting committee was split on the path for interest rates…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said the minutes suggest that the Fed may retreat to a Bernanke-like stance in terms of the inflation target where “2% does not always mean 2%.”
Middle Market Growth, RSM’s Joe Brusuelas on What to Watch in Uncertain Economic Times, 02/20/2019: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, spoke with MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan about what U.S. middle-market managers should be watching as the economy slows and risk factors mount, notably the trade dispute with China. Brusuelas doesn’t anticipate a recession this year—unless there is a significant hike in import taxes—but he described what he expects a downturn will look like when it occurs.
CNBC's Nightly Business Report, Rising National & Consumer Debt, 02/13/2019: Joining us now to talk about the implications of all of this for the economy Joe Brusuelas is back with us, he’s chief economist at RSM. Joe good to see you again. Do any of those numbers make your palms sweat? Well the fact that we’ve got people falling more than 90 days behind on their loans for auto loans does cause some concern. I’m not too worried about the national debt. Right now that’s not a problem nor should it be our concern.
Accounting Today, Podcast Risks to the economy in 2019, 02/11/2019: RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas lays out the national and international issues facing the economic landscape over the next 12 months.
Yahoo! Finance, January Jobs Report Stuns, Exceeding Expectations (starting at 4:00), 02/01/2019: The U.S. economy added 304,000 jobs despite last month's government shutdown. Yahoo Finance's Heidi Chung reports. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and King's College Professor Brian Brenberg join our panel to discuss.
Yahoo! Finance, Stocks for Amazon drop after earnings report, 02/01/2019: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and King's College Professor Brian Brenberg join Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro and Brian Cheung to discuss the latest in Amazon's fourth-quarter earnings report.
MarketWatch, Why wage gains may accelerate despite January pause, Jeffry Bartash, 02/01/2019: Worker pay barely rose in January despite a hefty 304,000 gain in new jobs and a slew of increases in minimum wages across the country…So there you have it. Wages are rising steadily, if slowly. That’s not a bad thing, either. It means the Federal Reserve doesn’t have to worry as much about the threat of inflation and can keep U.S. interest rates on the low side. As long as interest rates and inflation remain low, the economy is likely to keep growing and stave off its first recession in a decade. “This will no doubt provide substantial relief to policymakers at the central bank,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: The two-sided jobs picture, Steve LeVine, 02/01/2019: What's happening: In reports today, the government said the U.S. economy is roaring into 2019 — but not wages…But, but, but: Though wages grew by 3.2%, or 1.3% after accounting for inflation, that is about half what it should be, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM…"It was another month of anemic gains in hourly wages," Brusuelas said.
CNN Business, Manufacturing sector rebounded sharply in January, Paul R. La Monica, 02/01/2019: The jobs numbers for January were solid. But it was another report that showed a strong gain in manufacturing activity that ignited a rally on Wall Street Friday. Stocks rose after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its key index on manufacturing rose 2.3 percentage points from December…"ISM really turbocharged the market this morning. It wasn't the jobs report," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US.
Benzinga, Federal Reserve Unanimously Votes To Leave Rates Unchanged, Elizabeth Balboa, 01/30/2019: As Fed officials intimated and economists predicted, the Federal Open Markets Committee unanimously voted Wednesday to maintain interest rates between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. Its statement assured constant rates for some time…RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas anticipates two rate hikes in the back half of 2019.
Axios, 1 big thing: More Fed than ever before, 01/30/2019: A new era of more frequent press conferences begins today, and it will likely change the way investors look at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's words, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports…The big picture: As the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos points out, there have been a series of confusing comments from Powell that have spooked markets. Both investors and the chairman himself will now have to get used to a bigger and more regular dose of Powell. "We do not envy Chair Powell, who is clearly not a verbal stunt pilot, on how he plans to address the questions he will face from aggressive financial journalists following the release of the Fed statement," says RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas.
Dallas Business Journal, Economist: Shutdown’s impact on DFW and Texas economy will linger, Bill Hethcock, 01/25/2019: The partial government shutdown may have ended, at least for now, but the impact on the Dallas-Fort Worth and Texas economies will be lingering and substantial. That’s the view of Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for audit, tax and consulting firm RSM U.S. LLP. Brusuelas shared his thoughts in an interview with the Dallas Business Journal on Friday. “The impacts on the Texas economy of the government shutdown are going to be highly asymmetric,” Brusuelas said.
Chief Investment Officer, How the Government Shutdown Will Ding the Employment Report, 01/30/2019: The US has been riding a good-news tide of rising employment and dropping joblessness for some time. Thanks to the recent 35-day partial government shutdown, that’s about to be reversed, at least temporarily. That’s the projection of RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, who expects the national unemployment rate to rise to 4.1% from 3.9% in December. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its numbers on Friday, he wrote in a research report, that will mark the first net loss of jobs since September 2010, a full 99 months ago.
Houston Business Journal, TSA security checkpoint at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport to reopen, Olivia Pulsinelli, 01/28/2019: Terminal B at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport will return to normal operations this week now that the partial government shutdown has ended…The length of the partial shutdown is unprecedented, so many of the economic ramifications can’t yet be quantified, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for audit, tax and consulting firm RSM US LLP, told the Dallas Business Journal. “The impacts on the Texas economy of the government shutdown are going to be highly asymmetric,” he said.
San Antonio Express-News, San Antonio-area shutdown victims hope truce is lasting, Lynn Brezosky, 01/24/2019: After a month without a paycheck, federal prison worker Arthur Trevino was glad to hear news Friday that President Donald Trump had agreed to reopen the federal government. But he won’t forget the financial pain he and his family had lived through anytime soon…Joe Brusuelas, the Austin-based chief economist for RSM U.S., a tax consulting firm, said a continued shutdown would have inflicted even more pain on transportation hubs, such as Houston, with large numbers of unpaid Federal Aviation Administration, Customs and Border Protection, and TSA workers. Last week, a “sick-out” among unpaid TSA workers had forced the closing of a Bush International Airport terminal in Houston.
BankDirector.com, Will Banks Draw a Bust Card on the Economy?, Jack Milligan, 01/16/2019: Anyone who has ever played blackjack can appreciate the decision that bank chief executive officers and independent directors face today with the red-hot U.S. economy. There are two decidedly different views on how the economy will perform over the next 19 to 24 months…If Foster and Vitner give voice to the optimistic outlook, Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas at the consulting firm RSM takes a dimmer view of the economy’s likely performance over the next two years. Brusuelas forecasts the U.S. economy to grow between 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in 2019, and then drop to 1.8 percent in 2020. “My sense is that the [tax cut], which in part is responsible for the strong growth we’re having, has already peaked,” he says.
NBC News, The government shutdown's forgotten victims, Dareh Gregorian, 01/19/2019: The government shutdown has already cost federal contractors — and their employees — between $5 and $6 billion, experts say. And unlike the 800,000 furloughed federal employees who haven't been paid since the longest shutdown in U.S. history began on Dec. 22, the contractors aren't likely to get back pay when the impasse eventually ends…"We economists are likely severely underestimating the economic impact due to the loss of work from government contractors," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for international consulting RSM US. "We are in uncharted terrain with a shutdown of this breadth and depth."
NPR, Government Shutdown Causing Far Greater Damage To Economy Than Previously Estimated, Jim Zaroroli, 01/16/2019: …And that kind of pull back on spending can lead to slower growth as a whole, especially in places with a lot of federal employees. Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, says there are cities such as Ogden, Utah, site of a large IRS facility: “These are highly paid professionals with educations who aren’t receiving income. We’re going to see at least two paychecks missed by these individuals. That’s an entire month of pay.”
Marketplace, Small, medium business CEOs are losing a lot of confidence in the economy, Mitchell Hartman, 01/16/2019: Joseph Brusuelas at RSM consulting says economic and political problems are piling on now, “causing what we call a growing uncertainty tax on the economy.” He predicts businesses will hold back on investment and expansion plans while that uncertainty reigns.
NBC News, Long airport waits among the mounting problems as government shutdown drags on, Dareh Gregorian, Vaughn Hillyard and Maura Barrett, 01/14/2019: Long security lines plagued travelers at several airports across the country Monday due to the partial government shutdown…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US, told NBC News that increased airport woes might force both sides to find a way to end the shutdown because of the potential affects on businesses.
NBC News, The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on, 01/10/2019: The country would face an economic hellscape if the government shutdown lasts "months or even years," as the president has suggested it might, experts tell NBC News…By the end of February, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, run by the Department of Agriculture, would be out of funding — meaning almost 40 million low-income Americans could find themselves struggling to pay for food, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM US…"The near-term impact is people getting evicted, having their heat turned off and not having enough food," Brusuelas said.
MarketWatch, Voters blame Trump, Republicans for shutdown in poll | Democrats to probe family separation, detention, Robert Schroeder, 01/09/2019: Nearly half of American voters — 47% — say it’s President Donald Trump who is mostly to blame for the partial government shutdown, according to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll taken before the president’s Oval Office address Tuesday night…Economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM has estimated that if the shutdown extends to a year it could reduce gross domestic product by as much as 1%.
Huffington Post, How The Trump Administration Could Keep Food Assistance Going During The Shutdown, Arthur Delaney, 01/08/2019: There’s a way for the Trump administration to continue food assistance during the government shutdown ― at least according to one legal theory…Joe Brusuelas, an economist with the accounting firm RSM, estimated a full year without SNAP benefits would reduce gross domestic product by as much as 1 percent.
Axios, The economists who predicted a surge in gig jobs say they were wrong, Steve LeVine, 01/07/2019: n In 2016, two prominent U.S. economists turned heads with a paper stating that the country was going gig — Americans were throwing aside the traditional desire for full-time jobs and opting for the freedom and flexibility of freelance work. Now the pair — Princeton University's Alan Krueger and Harvard's Lawrence Katz — say they were fooled by economic noise and that workers are pretty much the same as they've always been…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tells Axios that the pair's new paper is par for the course. "If you're not getting it wrong 20% of the time, you are not doing your job," he says.
MarketWatch, Here’s what happens to the economy if food stamps are halted for a year due to the shutdown, Robert Shroeder, 01/07/2019: Here are two more ways a partial government shutdown could affect Americans if it continues: millions won’t get food stamps and the economy will grow at a slower pace. With the shutdown in its 17th day, economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM takes a look at those two issues as he says it’s increasingly likely that money to sufficiently fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps, will run out this month. In human terms, writes Brusuelas, 20 million low-income households and 40 million individuals would lose support.
NBC News, Jobs report is good news, but American workers still need skills training, Erik Sherman, 01/04/2019: With more and more Americans entering a booming labor market and unemployment hovering at 50-year lows, 2019 would seem to be the year of the worker…But the economy has been doing well under many measures and so education and training haven't been a first priority for governments. "This is when policymakers should think of broad retraining programs," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Washington Post, U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December and wage growth gained steam, marking a strong finish to 2018, Danielle Paquette and Andrew Van Dam, 01/04/2019: The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, smashing expectations for year-end growth, and wages rose 3.2 percent in the year since December 2017 after nearly a decade of tepid improvements, federal economists reported Friday…The unemployment rate crept up to 3.9 percent — the highest level since July, the Labor Department’s latest numbers showed. That shouldn’t ring alarm bells, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an international consulting firm. “You’re bringing people back into the labor force," he said. "That’s a good thing.”
Benzinga, Economists React To Blowout December Jobs Report, Wayne Duggan, 01/04/2019: For the second straight morning, U.S. investors concerned about an imminent recession received data suggesting the economy is stronger than expected…Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP, said the December report doesn't change his expectations for a six-month pause in Fed rate hikes. "Today’s data reinforces the policy risks that lie ahead in 2019 even as the exaggerated topline data points to an underlying trend of roughly 220,000 in a year when the economy generated 2.638 million. Our model of the Fed’s reaction function indicates the Fed should remain on pause for the first six months of 2019 and then lift rates by 25 basis points in June with an additional increase of 25 basis points in final quarter of the year," Brusuelas said.
Bankrate, Fed chair doesn’t plan to quit, despite criticism from President Trump, Amanda Dixon, 01/04/2019: The Federal Reserve chair’s latest comments are music to investors’ ears…Given that the economy last year was more “robust” than projected, the Fed ultimately decided to increase interest rates four times in 2018. The White House has made claims that the economy is growing at or above 3 percent, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM, a tax, audit and consulting services provider. “One would want rates to go up with an economy growing at that rate,” he added.
The Washington Post, Millions face delayed tax refunds, cuts to food stamps as White House scrambles to deal with shutdown’s consequences, Damian Paletta and Erica Werner, 01/04/2019: Food stamps for 38 million low-income Americans would face severe reductions and more than $140 billion in tax refunds are at risk of being frozen or delayed if the government shutdown stretches into February, widespread disruptions that threaten to hurt the economy…The cumulative impact of these changes could have a major impact on the economy. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., an accounting and consulting firm, said a prolonged shutdown would shave an entire percentage point off the U.S.’s economic growth, in part because of an “uncertainty tax” that would freeze spending by households and businesses.
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Factory Activity Decelerates Sharply Amid Global Slowdown, Sharon Nunn and Nick Timiraos, 01/03/2019: American manufacturing growth slowed sharply in December, adding to concerns about cooling economic expansions in the U.S. and abroad…In December, analysts cut earnings forecasts for this year on most of the companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet, for the first time in two years. But the broad decline in the manufacturing index suggests the weakness wasn’t confined to worries over trade and declines in oil prices that have idled production in the energy sector. “The U.S. is definitely in the late innings of the current business cycle,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM U.S.
Marketplace, Five things to watch out for in 2019 in the global economy, Sabri Ben-Achour, 01/01/2019: It’s not often that a year is riven with so many momentous economic changes… Here’s a look at what 2019 inherited from 2018, and the issues to watch for as we start the new year…On June 23, 2016, a majority of Britons voted to leave the European Union. Two and a half years later, there is still no agreement on how they'll actually do it. But whether there’s agreement or not, it will happen in March.“I think one of the underestimated risks to the global economic outlook in 2019 are those associated with a hard Brexit,” warns Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Nightly Business Report (segment available via YouTube at 7:00 mark), Market Vs the Economy,” 12/28/2018: Do you see slower growth in 2019 relative to what we’ve seen so far this year? Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist: I do, I’m expecting 2.2% growth next year as we move back to the long-term trend of 1.8 percent. That financial volatility you’ve seen over the past three months should be considered a proxy for slower cash flows linked to trade tensions around the world out of the White House.
CNN Business, Government shutdown threatens access to key economic data, Lydia DePillis, 12/26/2018: Among the many public services that Americans will miss if the partial government shutdown continues beyond this week, here's a big one: data…"Because we're already experiencing heightened volatility, this just adds another combustible element into the mix," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the consulting firm RSM US.
Associated Press, Trump assails Fed as the ‘only problem our economy has’, Josh Boak, 12/24/2018: President Donald Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve on Monday after administration officials spent the weekend trying to assure the public and financial markets that Jerome Powell’s job as Fed chairman was safe…“My sense is the Mnuchin tweets don’t tell us much about the economy, but they provide unusual insight into the chaos inside the White House,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM. “Rather than instilling confidence, it created confusion and raised more questions than it answered. Foremost among those is, how safe is the job of Jay Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve?”
Washington Post, As stocks drop, Trump fears he’s losing his best argument for reelection, Heather Long, Josh Dawsey and Thomas Heath, 12/20/2018:President Trump has kept an almost obsessive watch on the stock market as it has lurched lower in recent weeks, tuning in to Fox Business and checking in with Lou Dobbs, a host on the network…“The market has lost confidence in the narrative coming out of the White House on the economy and trade,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a multinational network of accounting firms.
Benzinga, The Federal Reserve Issues Fourth Rate Hike Of 2018, Wayne Duggan, 12/19/2018: On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve delivered the interest rate hike the markets were expecting. The Fed announced it will be upping the fed funds target rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 2.25-2.50 percent…RSM US LLP chief economist Joe Brusuelas said investors likely didn’t get what they were hoping for from the Fed. “The statement and the summary of economic projections were not as dovish as many market participants desired, which from our vantage point does suggest that the Fed will hike rates as many as twice in 2019,” Brusuelas said following the Fed’s decision. “Thus, investors or policymakers who are concluding that it’s one and done for the Fed are likely to be disappointed in the year ahead.” Similar article in Financial Times.
ABL Advisor, Middle Market Outlook Remains Strong Amid Concerns About Inflation, Labor Market, 12/19/2018: In the fourth quarter of 2018, the MMBI posted a composite score of 132.0, a slight 2.4-point decrease from last quarter's 134.4…"This quarter's MMBI performance conforms to our forecast for a moderating economy as we head into 2019, but business activity – particularly in the middle market – remains strong, and a recession is far from imminent," said Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP chief economist. "Even so, clouds are forming on the horizon related to declining fiscal outlays later in 2019, inflationary pressures and, perhaps most importantly, an uncertain outlook for tariffs and trade policy."
Marketplace, Holiday shopping forecasts are good, but not as good as 2017, Mitchell Hartman, 12/17/2018: Consumer confidence and spending have held up well against a backdrop of economic warning signs — from the volatile stock market to the faltering housing market. Economist Joe Brusuelas at RSM expects consumers to remain upbeat as the job market remains strong, with unemployment continuing to fall and wages rising in coming months.
The Wall Street Journal, Hiring Slows as Wages Grow, Unemployment Holds at Multidecade Low, Eric Morath, 12/07/2018: U.S. employers slowed their hiring in November, but wage growth matched the highest rate in nearly a decade and unemployment held at its lowest level in nearly half a century, signs of an economy that could be losing some momentum at the end of a strong year…“The economy is slowing and hiring is going to slow with it,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US. “Business activity remains stout, but we are seeing some cracks.” He pointed to supply-chain disruptions due to the trade dispute with China and a sluggish housing market.
Associated Press, US hiring slower but steady as employers add 155K jobs, Christopher Rugaber, 12/07/2018: U.S. businesses added a smaller but still-healthy number of jobs last month, while the unemployment rate remained at a five-decade low and wages rose at a solid clip…“The economy continues to churn out new jobs and reflects the strong underlying business conditions that point to steady, albeit slower job growth and economic activity in 2019,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “This report strongly implies that a recession is not looming just over the horizon."
Benzinga, Economists React To The November Jobs Report, Wayne Duggan, 12/07/2018: The S&P 500 rebounded Friday morning after the latest U.S. jobs report was slightly weaker than expected…Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP, said a minor jobs growth miss won't be enough to deter the Fed from sticking to its plan. “The 155,000 increase in total employment should allay that the Fed will push rates well above neutral in coming months putting at risk the nine-year-old economic expansion,” Brusuelas said.
Middle Market Growth, RSM’s Joe Brusuelas on the Middle Market’s Labor Dilemma, 11/20/2018: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, joined MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan to provide an economic update for the middle market, including how the tight labor market, trade tensions and monetary policy decisions will impact midsize companies. Brusuelas expects the labor shortage will lead to production bottlenecks next year, prompting companies to substitute robotics and automation for human labor, and he says middle-market leaders should plan to increase wages by as much as 4 percent over the next six months to attract qualified employees.
Washington Post, Trump’s trade war may have helped Democrats win the House, 11/9/2018: Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, which runs along the U.S.-Canada border, has one of the highest concentrations of iron miners in the country. Republicans took it from Democrats in Tuesday’s midterm election amid a surge in the industry propelled in part by President Trump’s tariffs on China… “It’s very clear, based on how they lost seats in the Upper Midwest, that declining agricultural markets likely led to the overturning of the GOP majority in the House,” said Joe Brusuelas, an economist with RSM, an international accounting firm. “It’s hard to imagine that these seats would have flipped anyway.”
Associated Press, With split Congress, prospect for economic deals looks dim, Josh Boak, 11/08/2018: President Donald Trump floated the idea Wednesday of partnering with the newly Democratic-led House on two ideas that could prove popular with voters: Increasing spending on America’s infrastructure and limiting drug prices…Still, Trump could be pressured to bargain with the Democrats on two major fiscal issues with consequences for the economy, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM.
Benzinga, Tariffs, Drug Prices, Legislative Gridlock: What Economists Are Watching Following The Midterm Election, Wayne Duggan, 11/07/2018: Democrats didn’t get the blue wave they hoped for Tuesday, but they picked up enough votes to take the majority in the House of Representatives, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate…The primary election takeaway for most investors can be boiled down to one word, said RSM US LLP chief economist Joseph Brusuelas. “Gridlock — that’s the primary economic and financial implication of the Democrats’ takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Republicans’ retention of power in the Senate,” Brusuelas said Wednesday.
MarketWatch, Evidence that U.S.-China trade talks are the biggest catalyst for the stock market, Mark Decambre, 11/04/2018: U.S. stocks bounced back this week after a nasty October. And while experts have cited a number of factors behind the resurgence in equities—including stocks being oversold and a strong economic backdrop—it would appear that one key narrative has helped to drive stocks toward a four-day rally: developments around the U.S.-China trade skirmish…That is reflected in the following tweet from Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM: Rumors of a US-China trade truce look more like an attempt to talk up the market ahead of the election rather than real progress on the trade spat. I'm still telling client to prepare for a full 25% tariff on $517 billion of Chinese imports by mid-2019.
The Washington Post, ‘That was shocking’: Strong job gains give GOP extra fuel heading into Election Day, Heather Long and Danielle Paquette, 11/02/2018: Hiring surged and wages grew more than they have in almost a decade, the government said Friday in a report seized on by Republicans just before the midterm elections as evidence their policies are delivering for American workers. In a key economic snapshot before Tuesday’s vote, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report showed that the typical worker’s earnings rose by 3.1 percent in the past year — the biggest such leap since 2009. “This is the best labor environment in over a decade,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., an international consulting firm.
Benzinga.com, October Unemployment Rate Unchanged; Economist Says Fed Will Likely Read Data As 'Modestly Inflationary', Hannah Genig, 11/02/2018: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report each month outlining the employment landscape. After a weather-induced slowdown last month due to Hurricane Michael, numbers are rising again…The October U.S. employment report demonstrated a strong rebound in hiring, with a 3.1-percent gain in average hourly earnings, said RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas.
MarketWatch, Economists ‘wowed’ by October jobs report as wage growth picks up, Robert Schroeder, 11/02/2018: Economists said October’s payrolls report showed all-around strength, highlighting wages climbing 3.1% in the past 12 months as they called the data consistent with further tightening by the Federal Reserve…RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said the data “just about guarantees” a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US Nov NFP Policy Implications: The employment data will reaffirm the growing hawkish outlook at the Fed. In my estimation this just about guarantees at December rate hike. I expect four 25bps hikes in 2019 in contrast with the current Fed forecast of three.
Investing.com, Jobs Report Adds More Support to Fed Rate Hikes, 11/02/2018: October’s solid jobs report provided more data for the Federal Reserve to move ahead with another interest rate hike in December…RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said the data will reaffirm the growing hawkish outlook at the Fed. “In my estimation this just about guarantees at December rate hike,” he said. “I expect four 25 basis point hikes in 2019 in contrast with the current Fed forecast of three.
Reuters, U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009, Lucia Mutikani, 11/02/2018: U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December…“The risk in 2019 is that the Fed will increase the pace of rate hikes,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Market participants will likely need to adjust their expectations going forward.”
Industry Week, Why Aren’t Tax Cuts Translating to Capital Spending?, Joseph Brusuelas, 10/26/2018: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was intended to spur productivity-enhancing investment. For many middle market firms, it represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to capitalize on a tax windfall. The money could bolster outlays on equipment, software and intellectual property during a time of profound technological disruption across all industrial ecosystems. However, RSM’s proprietary research shows an apparent reluctance on the part of midsize companies to invest in these areas, presenting one of the emerging economic policy puzzles in the current cyclical expansion…Joseph Brusuelas is chief economist for RSM, a global accounting firm for the middle market.
MarketWatch, GDP ‘impressive,’ but investment is a weak spot, economists say, Robert Schroeder, 10/26/2018: Here are some comments from economists on third-quarter gross domestic product, which the government said decelerated a bit to a still-solid 3.5% annual rate…Joseph Brusuelas said the report would reaffirm the Fed’s monetary policy path: Q4'18 GDP Policy Implications: Topline & internals will reaffirm monetary policy path at the Fed. Investors should anticipate 25bps rate hike in December & at least 3 more in 2019. Some real concern about path of capital expenditures given rising trade tensions.
Business Insider, The solid GDP report is raising red flags on one of Trump's signature promises about tax cuts, Akin Oyedele, 10/26/2018: The US economy is still in high gear, thanks to consumers who still have the means to empty their wallets…"While it is still too early to come to conclusions on the relative effectiveness of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, there has to be some concern over this development," said Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM.
BBC Scotland, Good Morning Scotland, Gary Robertson and Hayley Millar, 10/18/2018: It’s a big day for Brexit as we’ve been hearing. There’s increasing attention from the U.S. on what’s been happening. Joe Brusuelas is chief economist of one of the U.S. biggest financial services firm RSM… What is the U.S. making of these latest developments? U.S. has a very interesting outlook on this when it comes to Brexit. Listen to Joe’s interview starting at 1:42:15.
CNBC, The Fed is undergoing a major change, and the market is having a fit, Jeff Cox, 10/10/2018: The recent financial market volatility has been caused at least in part by the Federal Reserve, and central bank officials may not mind…"There is no Powell put," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "They are absolutely moving in the direction of normalization of monetary policy and withdrawal of what is essentially the stance of the Bernanke/Yellen Fed."
MarketWatch, Christmas sweaters will be in style this holiday season, Tonya Garcia, 10/09/2018: …Still, all of this doesn’t add up to spendthrifty consumers. “We expect the U.S. consumer to behave in an eminently rational manner in the face of the recent imposition of a 10% tax on 5,745 individual goods imported from China valued at $200 billion,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, which provides audit, tax and consulting services for the middle market. “Moreover, given a push by the current administration to boost that tax to 25% in January, as well as potentially impose an additional 25% tax on an unnamed number of goods valued at $267 billion, it is likely American consumers will pull a good bit of consumption and economic activity forward into the final quarter of 2018,” Brusuelas said.
Associated Press, As joblessness falls, skilled workers might be hard to find, Josh Boak, 10/07/2018: Are America’s employers at risk of running out of skilled people to hire?... When Joe Brusuelas scanned the September jobs report, he saw signs that a shortage of skilled workers could emerge in the near future. He’s the chief economist for RSM, a consulting firm that specializes in mid-size businesses. “Over the past 12 months, we should start to see the pace of hiring grind down,” he said.
Cheddar, Unemployment Hits 49-Year Low, 10/05/2018: Stocks fell following the release of mixed employment data. The U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs in September, missing estimates of 185,000. Employment, however, fell to its lowest level in 49 years. Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM U.S., explains what the numbers tell us about the health of the U.S. economy.
The New York Times, With 8 Years of Job Gains, Unemployment Is Lowest Since 1969, Ben Casselman, 10/05/2018: The Labor Department released its official hiring and unemployment figures for September on Friday, providing the latest snapshot of the American economy…Economists and business leaders have warned for months that Mr. Trump’s trade policies could threaten the recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector. There is little sign of that so far, however. Manufacturers added 18,000 jobs in September, and the revised figures erased what was initially reported as a small decline in August. Other measures of the industrial sector likewise show continued growth. “We really don’t have any negative impact from the tariffs yet,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for the consulting firm RSM.
Chief Investment Officer, Storm Impact May Mute September Job Report, but Not Trade War, Larry Light , 10/03/2018: The September jobs report should be a more muted gain of 168,000, according to forecasters polled by MarketWatch…Indeed, as Joseph Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, pointed out, initial predictions for September 2017 were for a 25,000 loss owing to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma—and the month ended up with a 14,000 gain.
Washington Post, Analysts say Trump may be overly optimistic on new North American trade deal, David J. Lynch and Heather Long, 10/01/2018: President Trump casts his new North American trade agreement as “the biggest trade deal in the United States’ history” — one that would return lost manufacturing jobs to American shores, discourage future outsourcing of factory work, and “send cash and jobs pouring into the United States.”… “We do not anticipate an increase in U.S. auto manufacturing employment. Rather, it will result in an advance in the use of robotics and automation in Mexico,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM.
Retail Dive, The holidays, in this economy?, Daphne Howland, 09/28/2018: After a few years of nail-biting holiday seasons that belied the post-Great Recession economic recovery, retailers this year appear to have the wind at their backs…"The economy and the consumer is on fire right now," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with global accountancy RSM, told Retail Dive in an email, adding that he also expects holiday spending to outpace last year's 5.5% increase.
Benzinga, The Federal Reserve, As Expected, Issues Third Rate Hike Of 2018, Wayne Duggan, 09/26/2018: The Federal Reserve delivered Wednesday the interest rate hike the markets were expecting…RSM US LLP chief economist Joe Brusuelas certainly wasn’t surprised by the decision…“This is in line with Fed rhetoric and the implied path of monetary policy embedded in the dot plots and the summary of economic productions,” Brusuelas said following the Fed’s decision.
Benzinga, What To Expect From This Week's Fed Meeting, Wayne Duggan, 09/25/2018: The Federal Reserve beginning Tuesday is holding a two-day meeting…RSM US LLP chief economist Joe Brusuelas says the Fed has done a fairly good job hinting at two more rate hikes this year, but its commentary this week could set the stage for a more hawkish 2019 as well.
Marketplace, Why employers are feeling more pressure to raise pay, Mitchell Hartman, 09/07/2018: Rising wages are a challenge to many employers’ bottom lines. Joe Brusuelas is chief economist at consulting firm RSM: “How small and medium sized enterprises are going to cope with that is it’s going to pull forward the point of automation. Sort of the lower entry wage workers are increasingly being crowded out due to increased technology so you can focus on paying a higher premium to those skilled workers.”
Retail Dive, August retail sales miss as gas prices rise, Daphne Howland, 09/17/2018: Retail sales rose 0.1% in August, according the latest monthly report from the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau. The figures (which excluded sales from auto dealers, gas stations, building materials and food services) were the weakest showing in several months and one that missed expectations…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with global accountancy RSM, agrees. "The major headwind at this point is a possible disruptiozn to prices linked to tariffs," he told Retail Dive in an email.
Fortune, 10 Years Since Lehman Brothers Collapse, Here's What's Still Hurting, Lucinda Shen, 09/14/2018: In many ways, the U.S. economy appears to have made a smooth recovery since the bankruptcy of Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers marked the start of the 2008 financial crisis…But the financial crisis of 2018 may have helped speed up the transition for some business owners, says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, pushing companies to layoff workers and invest in machinery in the hopes of surviving the crisis.
Axios, The coming financial contagion, Steve Levine, 09/14/2018: The party seems only to be roaring ahead — Japan's Nikkei index today closed at its highest level since February, and U.S. and European stock markets finished the week up as well…The current picture of trouble begins with the end of low, flat interest rates, which have fueled the global economy since the financial crash: the U.S., the EU and Japan have all begun to raise rates, with the Fed expected to increase them another notch later this month. The other main indicator
Axios, Workers are more confident but still mistrustful, Steve Levine, 09/11/2018: A decade after the financial crash helped to crater U.S. public faith in their leaders, American workers seem to be growing more confident, economists say, quitting their jobs at the highest rate in 17 years in search of better employment. What's going on: U.S. businesses had more than a half-million unfilled jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That calculates out to 0.91 available workers for every job, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Washington Post, A guide to the financial crisis — 10 years later, Rene Merle, 09/10/2018: A decade after the financial crisis, the casualties of the economic near-collapse are fading from memory. But that period of turmoil permanently altered the U.S. economy and the financial system…In all, the Great Recession led to a loss of more than $2 trillion in global economic growth, or a drop of nearly 4 percent, between the pre-recession peak in the second quarter of 2008 and the low hit in the first quarter of 2009, according to Moody’s Analytics. “It was such a shock to the economic system that it unleashed dynamics that we still don’t understand fully,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an audit and advisory firm.
Cheddar, U.S. Job Market is Booming and Wages Finally Increase, 09/07/2018: The U.S. economy is hitting its stride. In August employers added 201,000 jobs, beating analysts expectations and defying U.S. trade battles. Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist for RSM explains why the job market will remain strong.
Forbes, China Moves The Trade War To WTO, And That Doesn't Look Good For America, Panos Mourdoukoutas, 09/02/2018: In the trade war with America, China seems to be doing things by the book. Like filing a complaint against American tariffs with the World Trade Organization (WTO)… “Despite widespread acknowledgement of Chinese appropriation of intellectual property, the WTO will likely rule in China’s favor on its complaints around U.S. tariffs,” says Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US.
The Banker, Redefining GDP, Joy McKnight, 08/31/2018: Gross domestic product (GDP) is a standardised and widely used metric to assess the economic health of a nation…Many of the large international institutions and agencies are developing supplementary indices to address GDP’s shortfalls, without abandoning the metric altogether…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, an audit, tax and consulting services firm, agrees with Ms Coyle that, to date, there is no consensus around what should augment GDP. “There is no one method that currently is favoured, or gaining traction, in such a manner that there is a possible point of convergence to improve our conceptual understanding of economic growth, vitality and welfare,” he says.
TD Ameritrade Network, How Bearish Investors Interpret U.S. Economic Data, 08/20/2018: We have Joe Brusuelas joining us here in studio, the Chief Economist at RSM US… Joe: Jackson Hole does is it gives you a sense of what the Fed is thinking about, it allows you to project forward where rates are going to go and where Fed Policy is going to move. I think the fact that they’re talking about concentration of power signals that the economy is firing on all cylinders, but wages aren’t rising and they want to really begin to investigate what’s happening.
Cheddar, Trump Plans to Settle Trade Dispute with China by November, 08/17/2018: Are you optimistic that the US and China can mend their trade relationship? Joe Brusuelas: Yes, but the time table that’s being put forward is highly questionable. I just don’t see them getting it together this soon… I think what we’re going to get is another agreement to agree to talk about this a little bit more. Now that boosted the market today no doubt.
CNN Money, Macy's momentum may be starting to slow, Paul R. La Monica, 08/15/2018: The department store has been one of the hottest stocks on Wall Street lately. Its shares have more than doubled in the past 12 months... Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US, wrote in a report that the retail sales figures showed that the US economy "is firing on all cylinders."
The Washington Post, U.S. economy to grow at 3.1 percent in 2018, CBO says, Jeff Stein, 08/13/2018: The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 3.1 percent this year, as more government spending and tax cuts help propel an expansion, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday…“The wage models used to produce gains for workers are not working,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax and consulting firm. “The wage growth individuals want to see [is] just not going to happen.”
Forbes, Here's How Much This Trade War Might Cost Us, Kenneth Rapoza, 08/03/2018: Wars aren't free. That includes trade wars. The Trump Administration is currently fighting a trade war with China, but also has tariffs on goods coming from Russia and Brazil… "If the tariff policy is fully implemented, the costs will likely exceed $1.3 trillion with the risk of a much greater hit to the U.S. economy than many are currently anticipating, and a premature end to the business cycle," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Economy Added 157,000 Jobs in July, 08/03/2018: Here's what economists are saying about the jobs report...Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP: "In our estimation, the slowing in the pace of hiring has more to do with the traditional seasonal noise and is not a signal of a change in the underlying trend growth in hiring which is closer to 224,000. We expect healthy revisions to the July gains over the next two months. While, the job gains are stout, we are growing increasingly concerned that average hourly earnings are simply not keeping up the pace of inflation."
Benzinga, Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged: 'Labor Market Has Continued To Strengthen', Elizabeth Balboa, 08/01/2018: After effecting a rate hike in June, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve maintained rates between 1.75 percent and 2 percent at its Aug. 1 meeting... Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, anticipates a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate in September to bring the range between 2 percent and 2.25 percent. Accelerated economic growth and a drop in unemployment to 3.7 percent are expected to precede another hike in December that would bring the rate between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent.
CNBC Nightly Business Report – Nightly Business Report – July 27, 2018 (appearance: 2:17 – 5:34), 07/27/2018: Tonight on Nightly Business Report, the economy grows at its fastest pace in four years but can it continue?... Let’s turn now to Joe Brusuelas for more on the economy. He is the chief economist with RSM. Is this type of growth sustainable? Brusuelas: Well not at 4.1% it’s not. You’re going to see the economy continue to grow at just under 3% probably for at least the next quarter or two and will pick up in the last quarter of the year and finish just above 3% for the entire year of 2018.
CNBC.com – Why Trump's goal of 3 percent economic growth actually is achievable and sustainable, Jeff Cox, 07/27/2018: Getting one quarter of breakout economic growth is easy: Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush did so on multiple occasions, only to see things fall back into the same pattern soon after…"The economy is on much better footing. However, you can see the impact of the trade war beginning to creep into the data," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "The good stuff is the consumer is on really solid footing right now."
Benzinga – GDP Notches Strongest Growth Since 2014, Elizabeth Balboa, 07/27/2018: Gross domestic product posted the strongest quarter of growth since 2014, with the second quarter’s 4.1-percent annual rate accelerating from the first quarter’s 2.2 percent, according to the Commerce Department’s initial estimates…The strength is seen to justify a rise in Federal Reserve rates, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP.
Yahoo!Finance – This week in Trumponomics: The economy booms, Rick Newman, 07/27/2018: President Trump got the big number he was looking for this week, when the government announced the economy grew by 4.1% in the second quarter…That’s leading some analysts to warn that good times may soon be here and gone. “The economy is not likely to experience a sustained period of four percent growth, much less three percent,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for investing firm RSM, wrote to clients.
Investing.com – Best U.S. Growth in Almost 4 Years Leaves the Fed Facing Trade Uncertainty, 07/27/2018: The second-quarter expansion in GDP showed the solid state of the American economy on Friday, but left economists questioning the stability of the numbers at hand, while offering little to change the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy…“(There was a) 13.3% increase in exports which were clustered in agriculture exports,” RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said. “Soy is the word of the day.”
The New York Times – Economy Hits a High Note, and Trump Takes a Bow, Ben Casselman, 07/27/2018: Tax cuts and federal spending are adding fuel to the already strong economy, putting the United States on a pace for its best year of growth in well over a decade…“We don’t want to overexaggerate the strength of the economy given the real risks that are being put in place by the policy choices,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM U.S.
The New York Times – Why Friday’s G.D.P. Number May Be a Size Too Big, Ben Casselman, 07/26/2018: Prepare to be excited about a blockbuster economic report on Friday morning — but not too excited…“We have yet to see any meaningful evidence of an increase” in investment, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM U.S. “That’s something that you can’t make a judgment on in one or two quarters. That’s something that you make a judgment on in two or three years.”
POLITICO – Morning Money, Ben White, 07/25/2018: More GDP Hype: Via Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US: “U.S. growth in the second quarter of 2018 will expand at 5.1 percent with risk to the upside to due to a host of special one-time factors that will likely not be easily replicated in coming quarters. “The combination of strong inventory building ahead of the holidays and an unusually large increase in net exports linked to foreign demand for domestic agriculture will likely somewhat overshadow the strong rebound of 3.2 percent in household spending and another strong increase in fixed business investment.
Financial Advisor Magazine, Why This Is A Stealth Bull Market, Jeffrey Saut, 07/16/2018: On CNBC last Friday, we stated that we have been in a stealth bull market…Moving on to some of last week’s economic reports, our friend Joe Brusuelas (Chief Economist of RSM) had this to say: While, the labor market remains historically tight the pace of U.S. inflation is now outpacing wage gains late in the business cycle. Inflation on a year ago basis is up 2.9 percent compared with the 2.7 percent gain in average hourly earnings amidst no gain in real average hourly earnings over the past year.
Marketplace, Small business is on a roll, Mitchell Hartman, 07/10/2018: The National Federation of Independent Business reports that its small-business optimism index fell 0.6 points in June to 107.2. . Nonetheless, the index remains near historic highs…Chalk that up in part to the Trump administration’s tax cuts, said Joe Brusuelas at consulting firm RSM. “They’ve seen their effective tax rate drop significantly, and that’s bolstered both optimism and activity,” he said.
Reuters, U.S. job growth seen strong in June, wages picking up, Lucia Mutikani, 07/06/2018: U.S. employers likely maintained a brisk pace of hiring in June while increasing wages for workers, which would reinforce expectations of robust economic growth in the second quarter and allow the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates…Economists expect the manufacturing sector to bear the brunt of the tit-for-tat tariffs, through a slowdown in hiring and capital expenditure. "It's hard to fathom how the robust manufacturing conditions will be sustained," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York.
Illinois Manufacturers' Association, One Step Closer to a Global Trade War, Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP is an IMA Member, 06/19/2018: What a difference a month makes! Effective June 1, four weeks after declaring trade spats on hold, the Trump administration slapped tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 15 percent on aluminum for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom—key U.S. trading partners—and promised to slap an additional $50 billion worth of tariffs on China beginning June 15. In our estimation, if fully implemented, these tariffs, in aggregate, will shave 0.2 percent from potential growth and put more than 2 million jobs at risk. This estimate may actually understate the true nature of the tariff impact due to uncertainty around likely retaliation by China, Canada and other G-7 trading partners.
Benzinga, Economists Weigh In on Interest Rate Hike, Elizabeth Balboa, 06/13/2018: The rate hike came as no surprise. The Federal Reserve was widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point pop after its Wednesday meeting... RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said the language signals the Fed “intends to tolerate temporary deviation away from its inflation target in the near term.”… “The upgrade to the summary of economic projections implies that the Fed recognizes it will soon face a monumental decision,” Brusuelas said.
The Times, Scottish scene: Enough commissions, reports and strategies — let’s see some real action, Colin Donald, 06/03/2018: The Sustainable Growth Commission (SGC) has been praised for abandoning in its latest report, published a week ago, the more specious claims served up to the Scottish people in the 2013 white paper Scotland’s Future…An example of nimbler thinking is presented by Shanker Singham, the director of the international trade and competition unit at the Institute of Economic Affairs, a free-market think tank. Singham, an authority on trade policy and the EU, and technicalities of the Brexit negotiations, is in Glasgow next week, on a panel with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist in the US for audit consultancy RSM and Labour MEP Catherine Stihler.
Birmingham Post, Liam Fox to Speak at Birmingham Conference, Tamlyn Jones, 05/23/2018: Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox will be the keynote speaker at an international business conference in Birmingham next month…Joining him on the line up of speakers are America’s ambassador to the UK Robert Wood Johnson and chief economist for financial services firm RSM Joseph Brusuelas…Mr. Brusuelas is a specialist in analysing US monetary policy, labour markets, fiscal policy, economic indicators and American consumers.
Global Banking & Finance Review, Trade Friction: A Primer on the United States and China, 05/10/2018: Trade friction represents the natural state of international economic affairs. While the benefits of free trade are unassailable, from time to time, distributional impacts to distribution caused by comparative advantage and specialisation move to the forefront of economic diplomacy. The U.S.-China trade spat marks the opening salvo in a period of increasing friction within the global trade system. A bipartisan consensus in Washington contends that China should be confronted over its international trade practices. That said, some alternative strategies to those being deployed by the Trump administration can avoid upsetting global asset markets, disrupting the flow of goods and risking escalation to a trade war.
The Wall Street Journal, WSJ Wealth Adviser Briefing: Taxes, Mooch, Wine, Sharon Nunn, 05/07/2018: Curated news and analysis for wealth advisers and their clients from WSJ reporters and columnists…Market Talk: Labor Dept data show the labor force participation rate dropping to 62.8% in April from 62.9% in March and 63.0% in February… To be sure, the rate for prime-age workers, 25-54-year-olds, also declined, but the “employment to population ratio of prime aged workers between 25-54 held steady at 79.2 percent which is a cyclical high,” RSM’s Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas noted.
The New York Times, Warren Buffett Really Likes Apple’s Shares: DealBook Briefing, Andrew Ross Sorkin, 05/04/2018: Here’s a look at how Wall Street economists are reacting to April’s jobs report... Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM US: “The U.S. labor market has tightened to the point where firms are simply having tremendous difficulty finding qualified and available workers which is why the American unemployment rate has declined to 3.9 percent and likely on its way to 3.7 percent later this year. Once the late cycle fiscal boost that is in train into the economy in the second half of 2018, there is a significant risk that the unemployment rate will decline at a much faster pace which will present a problem for the Federal Reserve that will likely want to tighten rates a modestly quicker pace even as the US yield curve flattens.”
USA Today, First time since 2000: The pros and cons of US unemployment rate falling under 4%, Paul Davidson, 05/04/2018: The unemployment rate has slipped below 4% for the first time since 2000, and that sounds like good news for the economy…"The U.S. labor market has tightened to the point where firms are having tremendous difficulty finding qualified and available workers," says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas.
USA Today, Jobs: Unemployment rate falls to 3.9%, employers add 164,000 jobs in April, Paul Davidson, 05/04/2018: The labor market bounced back at least modestly in April as employers added 164,000 jobs and unemployment fell below 4% for the first time in 17 years, easing concerns that trade tensions and worker shortages may be crimping hiring…"The topline gain of 164,000 jobs is well within what we have thought would be a slower pace of job creation as the United States heads towards the late innings of the current business cycle," says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas.
The Washington Post, Unemployment rate falls to 3.9 percent as U.S. economy adds 164,000 jobs, Danielle Paquette, 05/04/2018: The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent — the lowest point since 2000, federal economists reported Friday…A demographic shift partly explains why employers are having trouble finding talent. Baby boomers, which today represent a third of the workforce, are retiring in droves, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an international consulting firm. Younger workers aren’t replacing them.
CEO Today, US Vs China Trade War: Who Does It Hurt?, 04/30/2018: While not in a trade war as of yet, both oppositions in the US vs China tariff tension have given warnings and escalated hostility. If a war of sorts were to pass, who would be afflicted, and what would it do for the economy?... Additionally, Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM International highlights the hidden victims of the US/China trade war.
Boston Business Journal, Prepare your company for blockchain business beyond bitcoin, Joe Brusuelas, 04/23/2018: Blockchain is best known as the platform supporting the cryptocurrency bitcoin, but the technology’s most far- reaching impact is developing quietly behind the scenes. Blockchain technology allows for the recording, execution and auditing of contracts in real time on distributed ledgers. It can be adopted to asset sales, payments, loans and contracts of all types. Bitcoin’s value could fall to zero and blockchain would still disrupt industry transactions. Here’s how. By eliminating the need for trusted third parties, blockchain continues the internet’s elimination of middlemen.
Marketplace, Moderate job growth in March: aberration, or sign of the future?, Mitchell Hartman, 04/06/18: The March jobs report shows there were 103,000 jobs added in the month, though many economists expected something closer to an additional 175,000…Economist Joseph Brusuelas at consulting firm RSM: The labor market has been tight – over the next 10 years, there’s going to be a shortage of around 8.5 million workers, primarily due to the demographic transition we’re going through as the baby boomer retires.” And what does that mean in terms of future job growth? “About 80,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate stable.
The Wall Street Journal, March Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – “ Reactions: Payback for Previous Strength and Weather Disruptions, Ben Eisen, 04/06/18: Economists appear to be largely looking past weakness in the March payrolls report, noting that strength in the previous months was unsustainable. Weather also appeared to play a role, economists said. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist, RSM US LLP: "For the past several months the labor market has been on fire, growing at a pace of 211,100 over the past six months, which given where the economy is in the business cycle amidst a tight labor market is simply not sustainable. In our estimation, seasonal issues aside, investors should get ready to observe more employment reports such as the tepid March estimate."
CNNMoney, US-China trade war fears: How bad could this get?, Patrick Gillespie, 04/04/18: The tariffs that China and the United States threatened this week could harm both sides. But they're not apocalyptic. Not yet…"What's next is we're going to see a tit-for-tat retaliation," says Joseph Brusuelas, chief US economist at RSM, a global accounting and consulting firm. "This is a classic lose-lose proposition, no one wins."
BNN, China's tariff retaliation against U.S. hitting Trump's base hardest: Economist, 04/03/2018: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, joins BNN for a look at U.S.-China trade tensions and the outlook for North America's small and mid-sized businesses. As the U.S.-China fight intensifies, Brusuelas says that U.S. steel tariffs, Chinese retaliation, and Trump's threat of more duties on China, all add up to significant economic drag for the U.S.
Privcap, The ‘Stunning’ North American Energy Network, 03/26/2018: Withdrawal from NAFTA and the impact on the global energy sector. Based on volume 38 of RSM’s The Real Economy report, available for download here. Participants: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.
The Guardian, Paper tigers? US and China in dispute over tariffs but trade war looks remote, Edward Helmore, 03/25/2018: Will two tribes go to war?... “China is reacting mildly to a set of tariffs that have largely been rolled back for almost everyone except China,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with the financial advisory company RSM. “Trade friction is a natural state of affairs in the international economy and we’re engaged in a spat.”
Middle Market Growth, Joseph Brusuelas of RSM on Trade, Tariffs and China, 03/23/2018: This episode of the Middle Market Growth Conversations podcast features Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM. He spoke with MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan by phone about the fast-moving developments with proposed tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, as well as on imports from China, and their impact on middle-market businesses.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Above the Fold, Tax Reform Boosts Middle Market Business Confidence to an All-Time High, Sean Hackbarth, 03/23/2018: It’s a bird, it’s a plane… No, it’s the ever-escalating RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI), which reached a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2018…“The U.S. economy is growing well above its long-term trend of 1.5% amid a tightening labor market that’s fueling wage growth,” said Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP chief economist.
The Washington Post, In a U.S.-China trade war, Trump voters likely get hurt the most, Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam, 03/22/2018: Politicians, economists and executives agree China isn't playing fair on trade… “A tariff is an extremely inelegant tax. It’s like trying to kill a tsetse fly on your desk with an anvil. You might kill the fly but you usually end up totaling the desk & damaging the floor,” tweeted Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM.
Inc., Middle Market Companies Are Doing Great...So Why Aren't They Investing?, Gene Marks, 03/21/2018: Middle market companies--those businesses loosely defined as having revenues of at least tens of millions of dollars per year, but less than a billion--are not only having a great year, they are looking forward to even better times to come. That's the conclusion from this quarter's U.S. Middle Market Business Index from accounting firm RSM US LLP and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The index, which is based on the responses of more than 700 middle market executives from earlier this year, has hit an all-time high…"This quarter's findings correspond nicely with the direction of fundamental hard data, soft data, and anecdotal evidence we're seeing nationwide," Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP's chief economist, said in a press release.
The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Shot: 21-Mar-18, Lev Borodovsky, 03/21/2018: The United States: The US could be running a $2 trillion annual budget deficit in less than a decade. That’s a lot of new debt for the market to absorb each year… The Middle Market Business Index also shows substantial improvements. Source: RSM, U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Privcap, The Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from NAFTA, 03/16/2018: An interview with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, on the impact of U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA.
Middle Market Growth, The Middle Market Reading List (page 12), 03/01/2018: MMG editors asked leading economists and business leaders featured on the Middle Market Growth Conversations podcast about what they’re reading…Joseph Brusuelas Chief Economist, RSM US LLP: “Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing our Digital Future” By Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson. Brusuelas’ take: It’s about the evolution of developed economics. From, say, 1875 to 2014, the economy was essentially organized around this idea of mind.
Middle Market Growth, Middle-Market Public Policy Roundup, Ben Marsico, 03/16/2018: This week’s roundup looks at the progress of a bipartisan regulatory relief bill that passed the Senate and is on its way to the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, a trade war sparked by President Trump’s tariffs looks increasingly unlikely…Interested in what causes a trade “spat” vs. a trade war? RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas wrote an article explaining the differences.
The New York Times, Will Goldman’s Blankfein Depart by the End of the Year?: Dealbook Briefing, 03/09/2018: Economists and analysts react to the jobs report…Joe Brusuelas, RSM US: “The job market continues to sizzle as the economy is in the early stages of absorbing a late cycle fiscal boost that will support a growth rate well above the long-term trend in 2018. The 313,000 job gain is more than triple that necessary to meet the demand of new entrants into the work force, which if it sustained will continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate. This will not be lost among an F.O.M.C. that leans hawkish in 2018 and points toward an increasing probability that the central bank will hike rates four times this year…”
The Washington Post, The economy added 313,000 jobs in February, beating expectations, Danielle Paquette, 03/09/2018: The U.S. economy added 313,000 jobs in February, smashing expectations, according to Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics…"The 313,000 job gain is more than triple that necessary to meet the demand of new entrants into the work force, which if it sustained will continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, an international consulting firm.
Axios, Hiring surge: U.S. economy adds 313,000 jobs in February, Alayna Treene, Steve LeVine, 03/09/2018: The U.S. added 313,000 jobs last month, the most since mid-2016 and far higher than the 200,000-235,000 consensus forecast, according to the Labor Department's latest figures…"This labor market is on fire and wage gains are in train," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.
The New York Times, A Trade Skirmish is Underway. That Doesn’t Mean a Trade War is Near., Neil Irwin, 03/08/2018: Many events of the last week have had the ominous undertones of a destructive global trade war…Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at the accounting firm RSM, sketched out what a true trade war would look like. “The first indicator that a trade war has begun would be the announced intention to withdraw from, or abrogate, current trade treaty arrangements,” Mr. Brusuelas wrote recently.
MarketWatch, Why a full-blown Trump trade war won’t happen, Jeffry Bartash, 03/07/2018: Donald Trump’s plan to impose big tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum has spawned lots of talk about a destabilizing global trade war that’s an echo of the Great Depression, but the White House move is better characterized, for now, as a mere skirmish…Economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM LLP said he figures the new tariffs on imported steel could force U.S. customers to fork over an additional $9 billion–plus. Even if 10,000 steel jobs were saved or created, the cost to the U.S. economy would be more than $900,000 per job.
U.S. News and World Report, World Bracing for Risk of Trump's Trade War, Josh Boak, 03/02/2018: President Donald Trump's plan to slap taxes on steel and aluminum imports was branded Friday as "absolutely unacceptable" by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, the United States' biggest foreign source of both metals…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultant RSM, sees three possible stages in any trade war.
CNBC's Nightly Business Report, Nightly Business Report – March 1, 2018, 03/01/2018: Tonight on Nightly Business Report, Washington rattled Wall Street. Stocks fall sharply after the White House promised steep tariffs on steel and aluminum…Let’s turn now to our two guests for more on the markets and the economy in light of this news today…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM.
Benzinga, Height Securities: Concrete Proposal Unlikely To Emerge From Trump's Tariff Meeting With Steel, Aluminum Execs, Elizabeth Balboa, 03/01/2018: President Donald Trump will meet with steel and aluminum executives Thursday, leading some to speculate an import tariff announcement is imminent, according to Reuters…RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said tariff talk should not be considered positive.
CNBC, Market awaits first Fed report after Yellen's hand-off to Powell, Jeff Cox, 02/20/2018: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell already has had his first stern test from the market. Soon, he'll face another one on Capitol Hill. "The market will be posed to move off any hints with respect to the future path of rates and upward revisions," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
The Washington Post, GOP senator suggests we need fewer immigrants because robots are coming, Heather Long, 02/20/2018: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) last week helped kill the bipartisan immigration deal in Congress...“Robots will create more jobs.” Brusuelas points out that many of the fastest-growing jobs today, such as “user design” and “cloud engineers,” weren't around a decade ago. We like to talk about how robots kill jobs, but we tend to talk a lot less about how many other jobs are being created in the economy.
Privcap, Michigan Will be Hit Hardest by a NAFTA Withdrawal, 02/20/2018: Privcap interviews Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM on how withdrawal from NAFTA will harm Michigan and other states hardest hit from the recession. Based on volume 38 of RSM’s The Real Economy report, available for download here.
Privcap, The Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from NAFTA, 02/16/2018: Privcap interviews Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM on the impact of U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA.Newsweek
Newsweek, What is a stock market correction? Here's what you need to know, Ryan Sit, 02/10/18: The stock market has been backsliding this week, erasing 2018's gains and recording the two largest single-day declines in points ever…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the investment firm RSM in New York, said investors see the Fed's plan as the "end of the era of easy money."
CNBC, You don't go from inflation being too low to it being a big problem..., 02/09/18: CNBC Senior Contributor Larry Kudlow; Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal; and Joe Brusuelas, RSM U.S. chief economist, discuss the potential impact of rising rates on the markets and overall economy.
Yahoo Finance Market Movers, Stocks continue to waver, Trump signs budget to keep gov't open, 02/09/18: Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous, Jared Blikre, Rick Newman and Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM discuss the big stories of the day. Alexis also talks with Brian O’Kelley, CEO at AppNexus, about advertisers and the Olympics.
Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Finance Answers: When did the stock market last act like this?, Rick Newman, 02/09/18: Amid the market turmoil that has suddenly reared up, investors have a lot of questions. One of the questions the Yahoo Finance audience recently put to us: When was the last time the stock market behaved like this?... “This isn’t over,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at financial firm RSM told Yahoo Finance on Feb. 9. “While the worst may be behind us, we should expect several days if not several weeks of more mind-bending volatility.”
Yahoo Finance, Government debt is exploding. Here’s the danger, Rick Newman, 02/09/18: The Trump administration is testing just how much government debt is too much… “Too much government debt crowds out private lending,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at investing firm RSM. “The private sector has to pay a lot more, it slows the pace of investment and hiring, and you get slower growth. The governing party just added $3 trillion to what the kids are going to have to pay back, and the kids have no idea what’s happening to them.”
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Stocks Dive as Investors Brace for More Volatility, Akane Otani and Jon Sindreu, 02/08/18: The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 600 points Thursday as government bond yields touched multiyear highs, and investors continued to grapple with a recent pickup in volatility…“I’m definitely in the camp that says this is a healthy correction,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, who remains optimistic and hasn’t changed any of his forecasts after the rout.
The Wall Street Journal, Strong Jobs Report Brings a New Problem: Labor Scarcity, Ben Eiser, 02/02/2018: Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM US LLP, points to a concern that hasn't gotten much airing recently: are there enough people to fill the open positions in the workforce? Here's what he says in a post-report client note: "With little to no slack left in the economy, the major challenge for both policymakers and firm managers is where will businesses find the workers to meet growing demand in a new economy increasingly organized around science, mathematics and technology in a tightening labor market.
The New York Times, Treasury Rout Hammers Stocks: DealBook Briefing: Wage growth picks up, 02/02/2018: The United States economy added 200,000 jobs last month, above the 180,000 Wall Street economists had expected…Economist reactions: Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US LLP: “Given that there is roughly one worker per job opening in the economy, the narrative inside the labor market is rapidly shifting from that of triumph to that of concern amongst firms of all sizes over how to fill positions among labor scarcity. Due to misaligned immigration policies during a time of economic acceleration and the lack of those that are willing and able to work, firms are about to enter a period of rapid integration of technology as a substitute for labor to avoid growing bottlenecks in production and the provision of services.”
The New York Times, Job and Wage Gains Deliver a Promising Start for the Year, Ben Casselman, 02/02/2018: As the unemployment rate has fallen in recent months and the economy has roared, one central question has bedeviled the American job market: Where is the wage growth?…“People who are marginally employable suddenly become highly employable in a period like this,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM, a financial consulting firm.
CNN Money, America gets a raise: Wage growth fastest since 2009, Patrick Gillespie, 02/02/2018: America finally got a raise. The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, and wages grew at the fastest pace in eight years. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000, the Labor Department said Friday.… Friday's numbers show 2018 "will be a year of rising wages and the tightest labor market in over a generation," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM, an accounting and consulting firm.
Washington Post, Two areas where Trump’s economy is better than Obama’s, Heather Long, 02/02/2018: The political spin on the economy right now goes like this: Republicans say the United States was in terrible shape until Donald Trump took office and then the economy went from blah to boom. Democrats say “Thanks, Obama.” They argue former president Barack Obama deserves all the credit for pulling the economy out of the Great Recession, and Trump is just riding his coattails… The reality is somewhere in between. “Trump was dealt a good hand by Obama, but Trump has also kept the momentum going,” says economist Joseph Brusuelas of accounting firm RSM. Brusuelas said he believes it is “juvenile” to have endless debates over who gets credit because “the Federal Reserve and the business cycle have also played large roles in the recovery.”
Off-Price Retailing Magazine (page 61), 2018 Off-Price Retail Predictions, 02/01/2018: How will the evolving buying habits affect the future of off-price retail? … “The way online retailers are set up, the direction and intensity in which artificial intelligence and machine learning is beginning to be integrated into online platforms provides an existential challenge for the off-price industry.” Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.
CNBC, Fed leaves rates unchanged but gives more aggressive inflation expectations, Jeff Cox, 01/31/2018: In Janet Yellen's final meeting as Fed chair, the central bank decided Wednesday against increasing its benchmark interest rate but indicated it expects inflation pressures to heat up as the year moves on…"We had a hawkish hold here," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "What that growth forecast implies is there are upward revisions coming to growth and likely a change in the balance of risks due to inflation moving toward the central bank's target."