Joe Brusuelas in the News
Recent interviews and contributions featuring RSM's chief economist
Joe Brusuelas is frequently asked to speak with reporters or provide commentary on the outlook for the middle market economy, including how proposed or recently enacted policy change will impact middle market businesses.
Read highlights from some of those recent conversations below. See our full media archives for more.
CNN Business, Why it pays to be a chain during a pandemic, Julia Horowitz, 07/10/20: Companies often talk about the benefits of scale. And during a pandemic, it appears bigger can be better…The numbers should bolster Congress' resolve to pass additional stimulus measures, which are currently locked in partisan negotiations, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. But he warned that "fiscal fatigue" appears to be taking hold. Also picked up in MSN Money.
CNN Business, Americans are rapidly shrinking their credit card debt during the pandemic, Matt Egan, 07/09/20: Americans' credit card debt is shrinking rapidly during the coronavirus recession. That's a sharp contrast with the last two economic downturns…At the same time, Americans are wisely paying down outstanding credit card balances and avoiding racking up new debt during this economically tumultuous period. "Americans are behaving in an eminently rational fashion," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International.
Benzinga, RSM Economist Sees 3 Fiscal Cliffs Ahead For Nation's Unemployed, Robert Schultz, 07/09/20: For the week ending July 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 1,314,000, representing a 99,000-claim week-over-week drop, according to the Labor Department…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said the estimated 32.9 million people receiving some kind of unemployment aid has major implications. Three cliffs are ahead, the economist said: the July 28 expiration of the federal moratorium on evictions, the July 31 fiscal cliff regarding the CARES Act and the Aug. 8 expiration of the Paycheck Protection Program. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Yahoo! Finance, Coronavirus surge has economists not believing ‘hype’ of June jobs blowout, Javier David, 07/02/20: First, the good news: June saw a second consecutive month of record-breaking job market gains, with nearly 5 million people getting back to work as coronavirus-related lockdowns were relaxed…“The major concern is that the headlines will lead some to conclude that it is time to close the door or pull back aid to those out of work, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “In our estimation that would be a serious policy error that would put in jeopardy a nascent recovery that we think is in play,” he said.
The Hill, Economy adds 4.8 million jobs in June, surpassing expectations as coronavirus lingers, Sylvan Lane, 07/02/20: The U.S. economy added 4.8 million jobs in June, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department, as the gradual easing of coronavirus-related restrictions helped more businesses reopen and bring back workers…“By the time the June jobs report comes out, we will have already started estimating the damage to the labor market wrought by pullbacks and shutdowns of business because of an intensification of the pandemic,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and audit firm RSM, earlier in the week in a preview of the jobs report.
Seeking Alpha, Another jobs blowout - June payrolls up 4.8M, unemployment rate falls to 11.1%, Liz Kiesche, 07/02/20: June nonfarm payrolls: +4.800M vs. +3.00M consensus and +2.699M previous (revised from +2.5M)…Says RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas: The bottom line is it's a "solid number of recalled workers." Still, with 31.49M people on some form of unemployment insurance, "Congress has to provide more policy support."
Yahoo! Finance, ‘We’re going to need to see sustained aid going forward’: RSM Chief Economist, 07/02/20: Joe Brusuelas, Chief economist at RSM, joins The First Trade to discuss the June Jobs Report and what it means for the economy moving forward.
Marketplace, Miscalculation of unemployment data not easy to fix, Andy Uhler, 07/01/20: We should know more about the national unemployment picture on Thursday, when the Labor Department releases its monthly jobs report…“What we have is a coding problem,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. But he added that the problem isn’t like the kind of coding that goes into software. “We have individuals interviewing people who say, ‘Well, I’m a stadium worker, but there’s no work.’ They were classified as employed when they should have been classified as unemployed,” he said.
Business Insider, Economists expect the US added 3 million jobs and that the unemployment rate declined in June. Here's what to watch in Thursday's report., Carmen Reinicke, 07/01/20: Businesses in June likely continued to hire as most states across the US went forward with reopening plans following coronavirus-pandemic lockdowns earlier in the year…"There's quite a bit of work yet here," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Business Insider. He added that on Thursday, he's "not giving a lot of emphasis to the top line." Also picked up in MSN Money.
Axios, Personal income is on a worrisome path, Dion Rabouin, 06/29/20: Americans' personal income fell 4.2% last month, which was better than expected, but remained supported by increased government spending on unemployment benefits, food stamps and other generalized welfare payments that are all at never-before-imagined highs…"It is clear that following the one-time bounce in spending observed this month, income and savings dynamics are moving in a direction that suggests that a general paradox of thrift has, for now, captured wealth households," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in a note to clients.
Washington Post, Another 1.48 million workers are newly unemployed, Eli Rosenberg, 06/25/20: Another 1.48 million people applied for unemployment for the first time last week, a slight decrease from the week before and the 14th straight week that more than 1 million people have filed for unemployment…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, likened the situation to a classic war film, “Tora! Tora! Tora!” which depicts a Navy captain refusing to act in defense of Pearl Harbor until he received confirmation of an attack was coming from, as ships exploded around him. “I think that’s a pretty good allegory for where we’re at right now,” he said.
CNN Business, Apple and Disney prove reopening isn't easy, Julia Horowitz, 06/25/20: Companies that were forced to shut down parts of their business due to Covid-19 have seen this summer as a chance to start getting back on track…Economists are referencing 1930s-era trade policy again as Trump ramps up trade fights with two of the nation's biggest trading partners — threatening to slap tariffs on goods from Europe like chocolate and butter, and reportedly pushing to reimpose tariffs on aluminum imports from Canada, my CNN Business colleague Matt Egan reports. "This is exactly the wrong move at the wrong time. We're inching toward the same mistakes we made during the Great Depression," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International.
Benzinga, Initial Jobless Claims Top 1M For 14th Week, Economist Sees 'Most Significant Fiscal Cliff' In US History Ahead, Robert Schultz, 06/25/20: Americans made 1.480 million initial jobless claims in the week ending June 20, a decrease of 60,000 from the prior week, the Department of Labor said Thursday…"If one was looking for confirmation on whether further aid for the unemployed and the economy is necessary, it’s there in plain sight," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said in a Thursday note. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
The Fiscal Times, More Job Losses Suggest Economy Will Need Another Boost, Michael Rainey, 06/25/20: Nearly 1.5 million people filed for state unemployment benefits last week, the Department of Labor announced Thursday, bringing the 14-week total for first-time claims to about 47 million…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, said Thursday that by his calculation, more than 2 million people have filed for unemployment aid of some kind every week for the past 10 weeks. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
CNBC, The Fed said it could supply the economy with $2.3 trillion. It hasn’t come close so far, Jeff Cox, 06/24/20: When the coronavirus pandemic locked up capital markets and pulled the economy into recession, the Federal Reserve took aim with a $2.3 trillion bazooka to try to help. Thus far, though, the central bank has only fired off surprisingly few rounds…“Should the uptake not be what the central bankers want, there is ample room for reform of the program’s basics,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a note. “The creation of the Main Street Lending Program represents the first modern attempt to create a market for firms that constitute the beating heart of the real economy.” Also picked up in MSN Money.
CNN Business, Trump's latest moves aren't exactly a winning economic -- or reelection – strategy, Matt Egan, 06/24/20: President Donald Trump's latest economic policies are the opposite of the emergency aid that Corporate America and Wall Street are clamoring for…"This is exactly the wrong move at the wrong time. We're inching toward the same mistakes we made during the Great Depression," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International.
CNN Politics, Emergency small business loans helped, but they won't be enough, Katie Lobosco, 06/23/20: Congress' $650 billion forgivable loan program helped small business owners keep millions of people on their payrolls as states imposed shutdowns, but some lawmakers and economists say more aid will be needed to make sure they recover in the long term…"The lift in recalled workers does not mean that the 20.9 million unemployed will not require sustained policy attention," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Reuters, U.S. weekly jobless claims remain high, second wave of layoffs blamed, Lucia Mutikani, 06/18/20: A second wave of layoffs amid weak demand and fractured supply chains is likely keeping new U.S. applications for unemployment benefits elevated, supporting views that the economy faces a long and difficult recovery from the COVID-19 recession…“There are continued layoffs across industrial sectors with some risk to white collar jobs as we move past this tranche of government aid,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “There are concerns of bankruptcies, which will force firms to reduce head count.” Also picked up in The New York Times, Business Insider and Fox Business, among others.
Benzinga, New Jobless Claims Continue To Fall, But Exceed Estimates: 'They Turned Down The Heat In Hell', Robert Schultz, 06/18/20: Americans made 1.5 million new jobless claims in the week ending June 13, down 58,000 from the prior week, the Department of Labor said Thursday…“While the pace of first time jobless claims has declined over the past few weeks, that is a little like saying they turned down the heat in hell,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in an email Thursday. “The pre-pandemic peak for continuing claims was 6.6 million for the week ending May 29, 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis,” Brusuelas said. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Bankrate, Second stimulus check and extended unemployment benefits? Here’s what aid could be on the way, Sarah Foster, 06/17/20: The U.S. economy is showing signs of healing, months after Congress pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system as a backstop against the harshest downturn in decades. But experts say a long road lies ahead for the economy on its path back to normal following the effects of the coronavirus crisis…“Stimulus fatigue is at the top of my economic risks at the current time,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “Deep recessions or depressions are not fate; they’re policy choices. And right now, an optimal policy choice would be putting forward another round of aid.”
CNN Business, Inequality in America was huge before the pandemic. The stock market is making it worse, Julia Horowitz, 06/17/20: The gap between the world's rich and poor is expected to grow due to the pandemic, and a stock market high on government and central bank cash bears much of the blame… "While there is nothing wrong with traders and investors profiting from timely and smart speculative activity, the growing disconnect between the economy and equity markets is going to cause increased social tensions," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the auditing firm RSM.
Marketplace, Retail sales were way up in May. But don’t pop the Champagne just yet., Sabri Ben-Achour, 06/16/20: The Commerce Department released retail sales numbers Tuesday, and they were eye-popping — up 17.7% in the month of May…They will not, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “My sense is that the public doesn’t quite understand — nor do policymakers, for that matter — the fiscal cliff that awaits the economy in just six weeks,” Brusuelas said.
Washington Post, Another 1.5 million workers filed for unemployment insurance, Eli Rosenberg, 06/11/20: Another 1.5 million people applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week, adding to the tens of millions who have applied for the benefits since the pandemic began and continuing a months-long downward trend in initial claims…“Some may have returned to work,” said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM, an accounting firm network. “But that’s a stunning number nonetheless.” Similar article featured in Insurance News Net.
Wall Street Journal, WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter, Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros, 06/11/20: The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said he is “not looking forward to an elongated and frustratingly slow recovery.”
CNN Business, Wall Street's party is over. Coronavirus fears are back, Matt Egan, 06/11/20: The runaway train on Wall Street has been derailed by a force nearly as powerful as easy money: a healthy dose of reality. The Dow plunged 1,862 points, or 6.9%, on Thursday in the biggest selloff since March 16. Even the previously red-hot Nasdaq tumbled 5.3% back below the 10,000 level…"Mass unemployment is going to be the primary condition that defines the economic narrative going forward," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International, wrote in a report Thursday. Also picked up in MSN Money.
Yahoo! Finance, Fed will not lift rates until 2023 at the earliest: Economist, 06/10/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance’s On The Move panel to discuss how the world economy is at risk over the coronavirus crisis.
Washington Post, Federal Reserve predicts slow recovery with unemployment at 9.3 percent by end of 2020, Heather Long, 06/10/20: Federal Reserve leaders predict a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, with unemployment falling to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, after tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the stunning recession caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus…“It is clear that the Fed does not anticipate a V-shaped economic recovery and is positioned to move forcefully to support the economy if there is an error in trade or fiscal policy,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a note to clients.
Associated Press, Fed to keep providing aid and sees no rate hike through 2022, Chris Rugaber, 06/10/20: Confronted with an economy gripped by recession and high unemployment, the Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it expects to keep its key short-term interest rate near zero through 2022…“It is clear that the Fed does not anticipate a V-shaped economic recovery and is positioned to move forcefully to support the economy,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, referring to an economy that snaps back as quickly as it shrank. Also picked up in The New York Times, ABC News and U.S. News & World Report, among others.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Republicans, Democrats split on economy, as the recession becomes official and stocks soar, Tory Newmyer, 06/09/20: Monday was the day that the recession became official, as the longest U.S. economic expansion in records dating back to 1854 received its death warrant…“Not only is there a significant risk of another market crash, but if equity markets continue to defy gravity without a meaningful recovery on Main Street, the legitimacy of the market and capitalism itself will come under further scrutiny,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for the consultancy RSM, argues. But as voters use partisan lenses to peer through the dust kicked up by the economic collapse, there is little evidence of that yet.
Axios, The Federal Reserve to take on more risk to aid small business loan program, Dion Rabouin, 06/09/20: The Fed expanded yet another of its special purpose vehicles Monday, increasing eligibility for its Main Street Lending Program and raising the percentage of the loans that it will take on to 95%..."The Fed simply views the risks that they are taking as commensurate with the true needs of Main Street," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios.
The Hill, Job gains show signs of widening racial divide, Sylvan Lane, 06/09/20: The rising tide of the U.S. labor market is failing to lift all boats. African Americans were largely left out of the surprising job gains in May, highlighting long-standing obstacles and new threats facing black workers amid the pandemic recession…“The economic fallout from the coronavirus and the recent civil unrest have placed an uneasy spotlight on the disparity in employment opportunities among ethnic groups in the United States,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and audit firm RSM, in a Friday research note.
Seeking Alpha, Caveat Emptor: The 3 Most Dangerous REIT Property Sectors, Brad Thomas, 06/09/20: In a recent edition of Barron's, Lawrence C. Strauss explained: Three sectors have borne the brunt of dividend cuts and suspensions this year in wake of the coronavirus pandemic: Energy, consumer discretionary, and industrials…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, explained to CNBC: "We will see people come back to work rapidly. It will take six to 12 months to unfold, but not everyone is going to get their job back because there are going to be bankruptcies. Depending on what industrial ecosystem one sits in, your relative recovery and expansion is going to look very different."
Associated Press, Fed acts to broaden appeal of ‘Main Street’ lending program, Chris Rugaber, 06/08/20: The Federal Reserve is expanding the range of companies that will qualify for its soon-to-begin Main Street Lending Program, in which the Fed will lend directly to individual companies for the first time since the Great Depression…The Fed’s move “should attract a wider range of participants,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax and advisory firm. It “bolsters the probability of a successful start to what we think is a sorely needed program.” Also picked up in The New York Times, ABC News and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
CNN Business, The recovery is underway. Does that mean it's time for more stimulus?, Julia Horowitz, 06/07/20: Record stimulus efforts are facilitating the global recovery from the steepest economic downturn since the Great Depression. That means it's time to spend even more, investors and economists say…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said it's a sign that stimulus programs such as the Paycheck Protection Program, which provides emergency loans to struggling small businesses, have been effective.
The Hill, White House gets jolt from strong jobs report, Morgan Chalfant and Brett Samuels, 06/06/20: White House hopes for a swift economic recovery from the miseries of the coronavirus pandemic received a major jolt on Friday with a surprise jobs report that found the unemployment rate fell in May and the country actually added 2.5 million jobs…Forgoing another stimulus package is “the biggest risk right now to the directional improvement of an economy that is still in recession,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and audit firm RSM. “If the unemployment benefits aren't renewed, what you'll see is what financial professionals call ‘up the escalator, down the mineshaft.’” Also picked up in MSN News.
Washington Post, Unemployment rate drops and 2.5 million jobs added, after states reopened, Eli Rosenberg and Heather Long, 06/06/20: The federal unemployment rate dropped in May for the first time since the coronavirus sent the economy into a tailspin, the strongest sign yet that the economic damage is bottoming out — although 21 million people remain out of work…In a note sent Friday, economist Joseph Brusuelas of RSM said that the labor-market numbers indicated that the government’s Paycheck Protection Program, meant to incentivize businesses to keep employees on, had worked.
Marketplace, Economists expected more job losses. The economy added 2.5 million instead., Mitchell Hartman, 06/05/20: No one saw this one coming. Many were expecting 7, maybe 10 million more jobs lost in the May jobs report. Instead, 2½ million jobs were added back, and the unemployment rate actually fell…Joe Brusuelas at RSM Consulting saw the turnaround in real-time consumer activity. “Stores opening, TSA data and road congestion — all of which clearly implied that the worst was behind us and a very modest recovery had started,” he said.
Wall Street Journal, The Bulls Have Taken Back the Stock Market, Paul Vigna, 06/05/20: The bulls are in the driver’s seat again. Stocks rose this week, with investors seizing on incrementally good economic news and ignoring the clashes in the streets, the odds of a long, drawn-out recovery and even the potential resumption of the U.S.-China trade war…If this continues, “there’s going to be calls on the legitimacy of these markets,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. “What happens when that occurs is it opens a door to overregulation.” Also picked up in Fidelity.
CNN Business, US billionaires have regained $565 billion in wealth since the pit of the crisis, Matt Egan, 06/05/20: The past three months have been financially painful for many Americans -- but not for billionaires. US billionaires have become $565 billion richer since March 18, according to a report published Thursday by the Institute for Policy Studies, a progressive think tank…"You've got a combustible concoction of lost income and inequality," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International.
CBS Moneywatch, Unemployment in the U.S. falls to 13.3%, confounding forecasters, Irina Ivanova, 06/05/20: Unemployment around the U.S. declined slightly in May, falling to 13.3% as the economy showed signs of recovering from the impact of nationwide shutdowns caused by the coronavirus… "I'm really concerned about workers who are well-paid public-sector employees because of the hole that has been blown in state and local budgets," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at global accountancy RSM, told CBS MoneyWatch this week. "It doesn't look like any fiscal rescue is coming, and you'll begin to see those 20% across-the-board reductions which hit teachers, police, firemen [and] administrators."
Business Insider, 'Greatest miss in forecasting history': 4 economists and strategists react to Friday's surprising May jobs report, Carmen Reinicke, 06/05/20: The May jobs report on Friday came as a surprise to many when it showed that the US economy added payrolls in the month and that the unemployment rate declined, signaling an earlier-than-expected rebound from the coronavirus pandemic…"The impressive number of recalled workers implies three takeaways from the May employment report," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a Friday note. Also picked up in MSN News and Markets Insider.
Benzinga, Rocket Ship? Experts React To Shocking May Jobs Report, Wayne Duggan, 06/05/20: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust gained 2.56% on Friday after the Labor Department reported one of the most surprising monthly jobs reports of all time…RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas said the jobs number demonstrates the Paycheck Protection Program was a success, furloughed workers were not discouraged to return to work by the extra $600 per week in unemployment payments and the Pandemic Assistance Unemployment program helped bridge the gap to normalization of the labor force. Similar articles featured in Yahoo! Finance, Seeking Alpha, FreightWaves and Benzinga, among others.
Axios, The stock market rally is ignoring cratering earnings per share estimates, Dion Rabouin, 06/04/20:In addition to largely ignoring economic data, the stock market's rally is defying cratering earnings per share estimates…"The market is broken," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International, said in an interview with CNN Business. "It no longer reflects a forward outlook that is truly aligned in the real economy," he said. "That's a problem because, at some point, the public will say these markets are rigged."
Politico, Some green shoots emerge, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 06/04/20: Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to dip to 1.8M from 2.1M. House Oversight committee holds a remote hearing at noon on racial health disparities in the coronavirus pandemic…RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect the U.S. economy to shed 7.8 million jobs and the unemployment to reach 21.5% when the May U.S. employment estimate is released on Friday.”
CNN Business, America is in turmoil and stocks are booming. Is the market broken?, Matt Egan, 06/03/20: The stock market is not the economy. But rarely has the gap between Wall Street and Main Street felt so wide…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International, said he can't recall a time when the disconnect between Wall Street and the real economy was this great. He blamed in part the sharp decline in the number of public companies in the United States. "The market is broken. It no longer reflects a forward outlook that is truly aligned in the real economy," he said. "That's a problem because at some point, the public will say these markets are rigged.
Washington Post, ‘I don’t even know how the dominoes fell’: Gripped by recession, some businesses evolve — but struggle to see a path to full recovery, Rachel Siegel, 06/03/20: In the weeks since the coronavirus pandemic emptied her calendar of weddings, fundraisers and corporate events, Anita Ellis still rises at 6 a.m. to make her customary triple espresso, then climbs back into bed and refreshes her email…“Reevaluating what you’re doing and how you operate [are] matters of survival,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “Supply chains that support that portion of the economy are going to be fundamentally altered.”
Business Insider, One stunning chart shows the success of federal aid in helping financially struggling households, Joseph Zeballos-Roig, 06/01/20: As lawmakers debate the extent of further government intervention for another federal spending package, the pandemic continues slamming people's livelihoods and throwing millions into a world of uncertainty…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, said government aid was a critical element in salvaging incomes. "Lost jobs and income thus far have been partially offset by the $1,200 aid check sent to most citizens and the extra $600 per week distributed to those put out of work due to the pandemic," he wrote in a Friday blog post. "In fact, that is the reason why personal disposable income inside the data has not completely collapsed."
Business Money, BoE projections unhelpful for businesses on the brink says RSM, 06/01/20: This week RSM voiced concern over what it called the Bank of England’s (BoE) overly optimistic economic outlook at a time when businesses need to be ‘hoping for the best yet planning for the worst’ to give themselves a fighting chance of survival… Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US comments: ‘Given that the Bank of England is openly considering the adoption of nominal negative interest rates, that strongly implies a lack of confidence in the central bank’s forecast of a V shaped recovery by its own members. Rather, one should expect a frustratingly slow and elongated recovery that will require a combination of fiscal and monetary firepower to manage the aftermath of the pandemic.’
CNBC, Cramer: ‘I get worried’ that without more coronavirus stimulus stock market could ‘sputter out,’ Kevin Stankiewicz, 05/29/20: CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Friday that he’s concerned the stock market’s rally from its March lows may run out of steam unless Congress approves additional coronavirus relief measures…But Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at middle market business consultancy RSM US, told CNBC’s Jeff Cox on Friday that there’s a “growing and significant disconnect” between economic data in the country and the stock market’s valuation.” Also picked up in MSN Money.
Associated Press, White House punts economic update as election draws near, Andrew Taylor, Josh Boak and Aamer Madhani, 05/29/20: The White House has taken the unusual step of deciding not to release an updated economic forecast as planned this year, a fresh sign of the administration’s anxiety about how the coronavirus has ravaged the nation just months before the election…“It’s a sign that the White House does not anticipate a major recovery in employment and growth prior to the election and that it has essentially punted economic policy over to the Fed and the Congress,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the consultant RSM. Also picked up in The New York Times, ABC News and Fortune, among others.
Reuters, New wave of U.S. layoffs feared as coronavirus pain deepens, Lucia Mutikani, 05/28/20: Job cuts by U.S. state and local governments whose budgets have been crushed fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and more second-wave layoffs in the private sector likely contributed last week to a 10th straight week of more than 2 million Americans seeking unemployment benefits… “Now is a good time to think how many of those people who lost their jobs are going to get them back, my sense is 25% will not and that’s what gives us the double digit unemployment rate well into 2021,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. Also picked up in The New York Times, Fox Business and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Benzinga, US GDP Contracts 5% In Q1 As Corporate, Consumer Spending Plunge: Coronavirus Triggers 'Rapid Changes In Demand,’ Elizabeth Balboa, 05/28/20: The U.S. GDP contracted 5% in the first quarter of 2020, the largest since the 2008 recession…“Now is a good time to think how many of those people who lost their jobs are going to get them back, my sense is 25% will not and that’s what gives us the double digit unemployment rate well into 2021,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, told Reuters. “The bankruptcies of small and medium enterprises will result in a much higher rate of permanent layoffs.” Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance and CFO.
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas Recaps Recent Jobless Claims Number, 05/22/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins TD Ameritrade’s “Morning Trade Live” to discuss the weekly jobless claims data.
The New York Times, A Wave of Small Business Closures Is on the Way. Can Washington Stop It?, Neil Irwin 05/21/20: One of the great threats to the post-pandemic economy is becoming clear: Vast numbers of small and midsize businesses will close permanently during the crisis, causing millions of jobs to be lost…“To be kind to both Republicans and Democrats who came up with this plan on the fly, the magnitude of the shock is so much larger than what anybody thought it was at the time,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an accounting firm that serves midsize companies. “It makes sense to revisit the program.” Also picked up in MSN Money.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Trump's economic approval ratings defy his polling slide amid coronavirus pandemic, Tory Newmyer, 05/21/20: The good news for President Trump’s reelection prospects is voters still give him positive marks on his economic leadership. The bad news is just about everything else…From RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas: There are 100 million or so Apple IPhones in the U.S which is not a bad sample. Here is a look at US Apple mobility trends (search directions for driving, walking & transit). It gives one a good sense about how the economic reopening is evolving.
Yahoo! Finance, “These programs aren’t holding back the economy, they’re actually supporting it”: RSM Chief Economist, 05/19/20: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testify before the Senate Banking Committee on CARES Act progress. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance’s “On The Move” to weigh in.
Forbes, Negative Interest Rates Explained: How Could They Affect You?, Kelly Anne Smith, 05/18/20: The U.S. economy is slipping into what could be a severe recession, and the Federal Reserve is taking unprecedented measures to help it survive the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, believes implementing negative interest rates wouldn’t be an easy task. Plus, he also doubts they would be the best way to help the economy now—although implementing them wouldn’t be an impossible undertaking for the Fed.
S&P Global, May retail market: Historic US sales drop in April; 9 companies go bankrupt, Tayyeba Irum and Chris Hudgins, 05/15/20: U.S. retail sales plunged by a record 16.4% in April from the prior month as the coronavirus pandemic kept consumers at home…"While April will most likely prove to be the nadir in U.S. retail sales, we are not expecting a meaningful near-term rebound in sales because of the significant dislocation in the American labor market and clearly diminished income horizons for the near future," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP said.
Axios, Americans don't realize that coronavirus recovery may take months, Dion Rabouin, 05/13/20: Economic experts including Fed chair Jerome Powell, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath and a multitude of top market analysts and economists have been saying for weeks that a quick economic recovery is a "fantasy" and likely at least a year away…"Consumer confidence is signaling a bit of cognitive dissonance right now," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios. "People want to believe that their portfolios will recover in one calendar year."
Yahoo! Finance, The next big economic trend — disinflation: Morning Brief, Myles Udland, 05/13/20: A novel virus creates novel economic concerns. As the U.S. economy continues to reel from shutdowns related to the coronavirus pandemic, the oldest worry in the economics world has begun to rear its head — should we be worried about inflation...But RSM’s chief economist Joe Brusuelas said Tuesday that, “risks to the economy and household consumption are going to be skewed toward deflation for the foreseeable future.”
CNN Business, New threat to the economy: Americans are saving like it's the 1980s, Matt Egan, 05/12/20: Americans are slashing their spending, hoarding cash and shrinking their credit card debt as they fear their jobs could disappear during the coronavirus pandemic…"The consumer that constitutes the beating heart of the real economy is preparing for a much longer slowdown than what policymakers are telling them," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy.
CNN Business, This is the most expensive time to buy stocks in 20 years, Matt Egan, 05/12/20: The US stock market stands 4% higher today compared to a year ago, despite the death and destruction unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic…"There's been a disconnect between the stock market and the real economy for years. In the wake of the pandemic, it's become much more profound," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Similar articles also featured in MSN Money and Seeking Alpha.
Wall Street Journal, Newsletter Special Report: Historic Job Losses, Jeffrey Sparshott, 05/08/20: The April unemployment rate rose to a record 14.7% and payrolls dropped by an unprecedented 20.5 million as the coronavirus pandemic hit the economy…"What we know is that this report almost certainly understates the tragedy has befallen the American labor force." —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US.
Marketplace, The unemployment rate spiked to 14.7% in April. It doesn’t fully capture COVID-19 job losses., Mitchell Hartman, 05/08/20: The Labor Department’s monthly employment report for April shows the jobless rate has soared to 14.7%, the highest level since the Great Depression…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy, has been tracking jobless claims. “Many of the initial claims were classified as furloughed, but are becoming permanently unemployed,” he said.
CNN Business, A historically grim US jobs report should be a reality check for investors, Julia Horowitz, 05/08/10: The economic devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic is about to come into plain view…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said he plans to scrutinize the data on hours worked. Analysts may need to justify the current valuation of the S&P 500, which has rallied nearly 29% from its low point on March 23, should we see hours notably decreasing, with a good portion of those still employed at "risk of falling back to working 30 hours per week," he said.
Benzinga, What To Make Of The Historically Bad Jobs Report: 'Great Depression Levels Of Stress', Elizabeth Balboa, 05/08/20: April brought the highest unemployment rate — and monthly rate increase — since the Great Depression…“What we know is that this report almost certainly understates the tragedy has befallen the American labor force,” RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas said in a statement, noting that the unemployment rate would have been nearly 5 percentage points higher if the full number of absent workers had been included in the count. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Benzinga, April 2020 Job Loss Is The Worst In US History; Unemployment Rate Hits 14.7%, Elizabeth Balboa, 05/08/20: In just two months, the coronavirus outbreak undid all the economic progress made since the 2008 financial crisis — including the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years…“Given the well-known problems in filing claims around the country, those workers classified as furloughed will face the permanent loss of a job, and the unique set of conditions around shelter-in-place orders and self-distancing will tend to produce an undercount of the unemployed,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a statement. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
American Enterprise Institute, The April jobs report was nightmare fuel. Well, mostly., 05/08/20, James Pethokoukis: So an absolutely hellacious, horrific jobs report. That we expected such devastating numbers helps not at all. Non-farm payrolls plunged by 20.5 million in April, while the official unemployment rate rocketed to 14.7 percent…Joe Brusuelas of RSM: “The abyss that policymakers are staring into is vast and dark.”
TD Ameritrade, Calvin Schnure And Joe Brusuelas On The Unemployment Situation, 05/08/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins TD Ameritrade Network’s “The Watch List” to discuss the April employment report.
PYMNTS, Saving Main Street: Advocacy Groups Propose New Government Relief Programs, 05/08/20: The crisis is hardly over, but post-pandemic reality is setting in for Main Street retail… Writing in Barrons, RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas is recommending a Main Street lending facility that would include a $250 billion Congressional backstop combined with $1.25 billion in liquidity guarantees by the Federal Reserve. Government agencies would lend at 1 percent, branding the program “One for America.”
Associated Press, Loan program is short-term fix, not cure-all, for business, Joyce M. Rosenberg, 05/07/20: The Trump administration has dispensed about $530 billion to millions of small businesses to cushion them from the sharp downturn induced by the coronavirus…“(Unemployment) claims and bankruptcies will give us a sense of whether the aid got there quick enough to prevent a catastrophe,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with the accounting and advisory firm RSM US. Also picked up in The New York Times, U.S. News & World Report, Business Insider and ABC News, among others.
CNN Business, The economic recovery may be shaped like the Nike swoosh, Paul La Monica, 05/06/20: The Covid-19 pandemic has likely sent the United States into a recession. America's economy contracted in the first quarter and the pain is expected to be even worse for the second quarter…"Our base case of a recovery that looks like a Nike swoosh depends upon robust and sustained fiscal and monetary policies put forward by the federal government and Congress," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US. Also picked up in MSN Money.
Middle Market Growth, Private Markets Respond to Coronavirus Disruption, Benjamin Glick, 05/06/20: Michael Butler had a front-row seat to the coronavirus outbreak. As chairman and CEO of Seattle-based investment bank Cascadia Capital, he witnessed the West Coast city grind to a halt as those testing positive for the coronavirus surpassed 1,000 in Washington on March 17…One alternative trajectory, described by RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas in an interview with CNBC on April 13, is that of a “Nike swoosh,” with a deep downturn and an elongated recovery. But as the situation evolves, that prediction could change, too.
CNN Business, Welcome to the most expensive US stock market in two decades, Matt Egan, 05/01/20: The coronavirus pandemic has exposed a gaping disconnect between unprecedented economic pain on Main Street and extreme optimism on Wall Street…"The worst of the unemployment crisis still lies ahead," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in a report. "The distance between promise and reality for the working class of the economy has never been starker or more painful."
CNBC, Florida has overtaken California as the US jobless claims capital, Thomas Franck and John Schoen, 04/30/20: Florida overtook California on Thursday as the U.S. state with the most weekly unemployment claims as Tallahassee began to process in earnest its sizable backlog of filings…“A look at unemployment claims around the country by state strongly implies that there will be a surge in unemployment claims in two states: Texas and Florida,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said in a note. Also picked up in MSN.
CNN Business, 30 million Americans have filed initial unemployment claims since mid-March, Anneken Tappe, 04/30/20: Millions more Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, as the coronavirus crisis continued to weigh on the US economy. First-time claims for unemployment benefits totaled 3.8 million in the week ending April 25, after factoring in seasonal adjustments, the US Department of Labor said…One big question now is whether initial claims will peak above or below 40 million in this crisis, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Seeking Alpha, American Badlands: Unemployment shatters Great Depression record, Stephen Alpher, 04/30/20: "Lights out tonight, trouble in the heartland" ... 30.2M Americans filing for first-time unemployment over last six weeks implies a real-time unemployment rate of 23.8%, writes RSM's Joe Brusuelas…Brusuelas expects Q2 GDP growth to contract 40%, and the unemployment crisis to get even worse. He notes the current extra $600 per week from D.C. runs out in July. It's pretty likely another similar multi-trillion dollar round will be necessary.
Axios, Fed expands coronavirus business loans, paving the way for oil relief, Orion Rummler, 04/30/20: Democratic and Republican lawmakers have lined up on opposing sides of the Federal Reserve's decision to expand its $600 billion Main Street Lending Program and give loans to a wider range of businesses suffering from the economic effects of the coronavirus…"This will change the perception of the government’s framework and approach to dealing with the crisis," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios. "Over time the Main Street program will overshadow the SBA and PPP, which have been an unmitigated disaster in terms of public optics."
Bloomberg Businessweek, When the Stock Market Goes Mad, Look for Real Value, Peter Coy, 04/30/20: This may be the least informative earnings season in history. Companies’ first-quarter financial results are scarcely relevant because they cover a period that mostly predated the pandemic…“My mantra is: depression-like shock, no depression,” says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM Global, an audit, tax, and consulting firm.
Yahoo! Finance, The coronavirus recession is a choice: Morning Brief, Myles Udland, 04/30/20: The U.S. economy is in recession. Take a look outside your window and this reality is plain to see…“As long as policymakers do not lose their nerves, or make a policy mistake such as not providing aid to reeling states and municipalities, there is no reason why the economy should suffer from a deep, extended downturn that meets the definition of a depression,” said RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas in a note published Wednesday. “It is a choice, not fate.”
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Goldman Sachs is launching a new lobbying group for small businesses, Tory Newmyer, 04/30/20: Main Street businesses are getting a new lobbying voice in Washington – underwritten by a Wall Street giant…From RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas: “US Q1’20: I like this data viz because it provides just a glimpse of the damage wrought by the Pandemic during the final weeks of the quarter by sector.”
Inc., Changes to Fed Loan Program Give Small Biz a New Shot at Funding, Diana Ransom, 04/30/20: Small-business owners frustrated by getting cut out of the stimulus program will soon get another chance at emergency funding…Of course, unlike the PPP, Main Street loans are not forgivable. So they really aren't ideal for businesses that were teetering on the edge before the crisis, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy focused on middle-market businesses in Chicago. "Those small firms need grants, not loans," he says.
Wall Street Journal, Stocks Rise as Fed Pledges Lasting Support for the Economy, Joe Wallace, Paul Vigna and Chong Koh Ping, 04/29/20: U.S. stocks rose Wednesday on hopes of progress for a coronavirus treatment and as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is in no hurry to end its economic stimulus…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM, noted that the Fed didn’t “point to an exit or end point on its accommodative policies.” “The Fed is prepared to engage in an open-ended period of policy innovation to support the years it’s going to take the economy to dig out,” he said.
Wall Street Journal, Newsletter Special Edition: The Expansion Is Over, Jeffrey Sparshott, 04/29/20: The longest U.S. economic expansion on record is over. GDP posted its sharpest drop since 2008 as governments and consumers responded to the new coronavirus…"This data, and those on the way, should finally lay to rest notions of a V-shaped recovery." —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US.
Reuters, Coronavirus likely hammered U.S. economy in first quarter, Lucia Mutikani, 04/29/20: The U.S. economy likely contracted in the first quarter at its sharpest pace since the Great Recession as stringent measures to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus almost shut down the country, ending the longest expansion in the nation’s history…“You are going to get close to 40% contraction in the second quarter,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “It’s important that when we talk of reopening, we are not talking about it in a binary fashion. It’s not going from zero to one or flipping the switch. Firms are opening, but still heavily constrained by public health policy.” Also picked up in Business Insider, The New York Times and Yahoo! News, among others.
Washington Post, Fed chair warns of ‘heartbreaking’ scenario as U.S. economy suffers worst first quarter since Great Recession, Heather Long, 04/29/20: The U.S. economy suffered its sharpest decline since the Great Recession — a 4.8 percent drop — from January through March, and the head of the Federal Reserve warned the second quarter would be even uglier as many Americans continued to stay home to stem the spread of the coronavirus…This is a “Depression-like shock,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM. “Policymakers should be prepared to support other rounds of aid and stimulus for an economy that is going to be reeling for some time.”
Politico, Why the unemployment rate might not skyrocket, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 04/24/20: We now have 26 million jobs vaporized by the Covid-19 virus and forced economic lock-downs…RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Roughly one in seven of the 162.9 million workers in the U.S. labor force is now out of work. The magnitude of the shock to the labor market is so large that it is difficult not to begin thinking about the wage picture for American workers going forward.”
Business Insider, Here's what 5 economists are saying about unemployment after 26 million Americans filed jobless claims in just 5 weeks, Carmen Reinicke, 04/23/20: In the last five weeks, 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment claims as layoffs persist amid the coronavirus pandemic… "American labor dynamics deteriorated further for the week," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in a Thursday note. In addition, the losses this week imply that the "near real-time unemployment rate has increased to 21.1% at a minimum," he said. Also picked up in Markets Insider.
Reuters, Record U.S. jobless claims wipe out post-Great Recession employment gains, Lucia Mutikani, 04/23/20: A record 26 million Americans likely sought unemployment benefits over the last five weeks, confirming that all the jobs created during the longest employment boom in U.S. history were wiped out in about a month as the novel coronavirus savages the economy…“It wipes out all the job gains during the long expansion,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Once the economy begins to reopen initial claims will slow, but we have to be honest, not everyone is going to get their jobs back.” Also picked up in Fox Business and Nasdaq, among others.
The Hill, 4.4 million more people filed for weekly unemployment claims, Sylvan Lane, 04/23/20: More than 4.4 million Americans filed their first claims for unemployment insurance last week as the U.S. economy bleeds jobs under a lockdown imposed to slow the coronavirus pandemic, the Labor Department reported Thursday…"The near real-time unemployment rate has increased to 21.1% at a minimum," wrote RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas in a Thursday research note.
Benzinga, Another 4.42M Weekly Jobless Claims Made As Economy Reels From Coronavirus, Tanzeel Akhtar, 04/23/20: New U.S. jobless claims for the week ending April 17 totaled a whopping 4.427 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday…The data implies a real-time unemployment rate of 21.1% at the minimum, RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said in a note. "The magnitude of the shock to the labor market is so large that is difficult to not begin thinking about the wage picture for American workers going forward," he said.
S&P Global, Fed pressured to expand access to Main Street loan program ahead of launch, Polo Racha, 04/23/20: The Federal Reserve may have to lower the price for businesses to access its Main Street Lending Program and tweak other details so that more firms can tap into the $600 billion emergency loan pool…The Fed may also need to lower the interest rate on those loans to ensure more businesses can participate, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US LLP, which focuses on middle-market firms.
CNBC, A ‘U,’ a ‘V’ or maybe a Nike swoosh? Economists try to predict what a recovery will look like, Jeff Cox, 04/22/20: As some states start to relax social distancing measures and some tentative signs point to coronavirus cases being on the decline, there’s still scant evidence of a turn in the U.S. economy…“We’re approaching the nadir in terms of the worst being passed. That likely will happen in May, and then we’ll slowly begin climbing out of this,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “We’re not going to have a depression. That’s a good start for what the recovery looks like.”
MarketWatch, Why the U.S. economy’s recovery from the coronavirus is likely to be long and painful, Jeffry Bartash, 04/22/20: Some U.S. states are already trying to reopen for business and President Trump has repeatedly predicted economic growth will take off like a “rocket ship” once the coronavirus pandemic ends, but economists increasingly believe a recovery will be a long and uneven one…Congress has rushed to pump more than $650 billion into a special relief fund for small businesses, but it’s unclear if it will be enough. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM, estimates the flood of demand for small-business loans could top $1 trillion “unless the crisis eases significantly.” Also picked up in Morningstar.
Canadian Accountant, Canadian post-pandemic economy to be tepid, says accounting firm RSM Canada, Colin Ellis, 04/21/20: Canada is on the verge of a financial crisis that could rival the global financial crisis of 2007-09, according to a new report released today by accounting and professional services firm RSM Canada…“Canada's financial system has experienced a series of devastating blows in the wake of the global equity market collapse that began in the last weeks of February, and which has us on the verge of a financial crisis that could rival the global financial crisis of 2008," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP. Similar articles also featured in Investment Executive, Consulting.ca and Wealth Professional, among others.
Cheddar, 'Testing, Testing, Testing' Required for Reopening, says Economist, 04/20/20: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP, the fifth-largest accounting firm in the country, joined Cheddar to discuss steps to reopening the American economy.
The New York Times, A Prescription for Reviving the Economy, 04/17/20: In less than two weeks, the U.S. government’s $349 billion small-business lending program has run out of money. Congress is in talks about adding more funds, but an agreement doesn’t seem imminent…Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist of RSM, says that the program will need $1 trillion to meet demand.
Bankrate, When will the U.S. economy get back on track following coronavirus shock? Watch for these 5 signs, Sarah Foster, 04/17/20: Not all recessions are created equally. Neither are the recoveries — and the biggest financial fear is that the current economic slump will last long after the coronavirus is contained…“What I’m seeing here is a depression-like shock without a depression,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “We’re not going to flip a switch and the economy is going to open back up at once. It will take some time to ascertain where the longer-lasting damage is.”
Washington Post, U.S. now has 22 million unemployed, wiping out a decade of job gains, Heather Long, 04/16/20: More than 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment aid since President Trump declared a national emergency four weeks ago, a staggering loss of jobs that has wiped out a decade of employment gains and pushed families to line up at food banks as they await government help… “Once one adds in those not captured by the data, we are almost certainly facing a 20 percent unemployment rate now,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM. “At this point in the pandemic, roughly one in every seven individuals in the workforce is unemployed.”
Benzinga, Experts React To Weekly Jobs Number: 'Unemployment Rate Will Break Through 20%', Wayne Duggan, 04/16/20: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) traded lower by 0.3% on Thursday after the Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims of 5.245 million, bringing the running total for the coronavirus downturn up to 22 million…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said the U.S. unemployment rate will likely hit 20% before all is said and done. “The U.S. unemployment rate will break through 20% this spring and likely test the 1933 Depression-era high of 24.9% this year,” Brusuelas said. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Seeking Alpha, Jobless claims imply 18% unemployment rate, Liz Kiesche, 04/16/20: The social distancing measures used to control COVID-19's spread continues to take its toll on unemployment as this week's initial jobless claims bring the total over the past four weeks to 22M. That points to a real-time unemployment rate of 18.1%, according to RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas. "Once one adds in those not captured by the data, we are almost certainly facing a 20% unemployment rate now," he writes. Similar article also featured in GoldPrice.
S&P Global, April retail market: March US sales post record decline; 4 retailers go bankrupt, Tayyeba Irum and Chris Hudgins, 04/15/20: U.S. retail sales suffered a historic decline in March and experts expect more dark days ahead as the coronavirus pandemic keeps American consumers at home…"The combination of soaring unemployment and shelter-in-place policies across the economy sent U.S. retail sales down," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said April 15. Similar article also featured in Morningstar.
Modern Healthcare, Feds' business loans for hospitals freeze top earners' pay, Rachel Cohrs, 04/13/20: Hospitals and other providers will likely be eligible for new loans for mid-size businesses hurt by COVID-19 that would require borrowers to limit pay for highly-compensated employees and executives, according to the Federal Reserve…"The Fed is clearly not out of ammunition, nor is it done exhausting its potential liquidity commitments based on the congressional backstop inside the CARES Act," RSM US chief economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in an analysis of the new loan program.
CNBC, Brusuelas: Key will be getting a virus treatment to the public that can help mitigate the effects of a start-and-stop economy, 04/13/20: RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas discusses the major impact the coronavirus pandemic has already had on the U.S. labor market, and what it will take to offset those job declines and ensure companies can stay in business.
Business Insider, More than 10% of American workers have filed for unemployment in just 3 weeks as coronavirus puts the economy in a deep freeze, Carmen Reinicke, 04/10/20: Less than one month of data shows just how deeply the coronavirus pandemic has rocked the US labor market – and many economists expect that pain will continue…“While we think that data for the period ending March 28 represents a peak in first-time claims during the current recession, large numbers of people will continue to report job losses for the next several weeks, which will send the overall unemployment level well above 20%,” wrote RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas in a note.
Los Angeles Times, Mounting jobless claims point to a 15% unemployment rate for April, Don Lee, 04/09/20: In the fastest surge of layoffs and economic decline in U.S. history, nearly 17 million Americans have applied for unemployment benefits in the last three weeks, the government reported Thursday…“The major takeaway from the labor market data is that Congress and the administration are going to have to provide more aid to a beleaguered domestic labor force that will face a period of mass unemployment,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US.
Associated Press, Record 16.8 million have sought US jobless aid since virus, Christopher Rugaber, 04/09/20: With a startling 6.6 million people seeking unemployment benefits last week, the United States has reached a grim landmark: More than one in 10 workers have lost their jobs in just the past three weeks to the coronavirus outbreak…“The carnage in the American labor market continued unabated,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a tax advisory firm. Also picked up in ABC News, Yahoo! Finance and The New York Times, among others.
Wall Street Journal, New U.S. Unemployment Claims Totaled 6.6 Million Last Week, Sarah Chaney and David Harrison, 04/09/20: The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits continued to surge at record levels, bringing the total number of applications to nearly 17 million since the coronavirus pandemic shut down swaths of the U.S. economy…“We clearly are still processing individuals who are having a hard time getting claims through at the state level in addition to the large numbers of layoffs that corporate America is now doing,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US LLP. “You should still expect to see staggeringly large numbers of individuals file for first-time claims.” Also picked up in Morningstar.
Fox Business, Coronavirus unemployment could hit post-depression record, economists say, Megan Henney, 04/10/20: Economists expect unemployment in the U.S. to surge to a post-Great Depression high as the coronavirus pandemic forces American life to come to a grinding halt…“The internal dynamics inside the report are a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929 to 1933 period of the Great Depression,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said after the release of the March jobs report last Friday. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Reuters, Fed rolls out $2.3 trillion to backstop 'Main Street,' local governments, Howard Schneider, 04/09/20: The U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday announced a broad, $2.3 trillion effort to bolster local governments and small and mid-sized businesses, the latest in an expanding suite of programs meant to keep the U.S. economy intact as the country battles the coronavirus pandemic…“The Fed made history today” by throwing its vault open to small and medium-sized businesses that are at the core of the U.S. economy, said Joe Brusuelas, an economist who focuses on mid-sized companies with consulting firm RSM. Also picked up in Business Insider, The New York Times and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Inc., What to Know About the Fed's New $2.3 Trillion Loan Programs, Diana Ransom, 04/09/20: While Congress may be in talks to pass another stimulus plan, its impact on businesses would be limited without a parallel effort from the Federal Reserve, announced Thursday…After news broke recently that the Federal Reserve was developing a stimulus package, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy focused on middle-market businesses in Chicago, said he expects the loans would come with "bargain basement" interest rates of 2 to 2.5 percent. He anticipates that the program eventually will result in as much as $1 trillion in new loans for midsize companies.
CNN Business, The Fed just unleashed another $2.3 trillion to support the economy, Paul La Monica, 04/09/20: The Federal Reserve is continuing its extraordinary efforts to prop up the US economy in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic…"The liquidity commitment put forward by the Fed strongly suggests that this is the latest in a series of policy steps to address the economic fallout of the pandemic and is not the final word," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US, in a report. "The Fed is clearly not out of ammunition, nor is it done exhausting its potential liquidity commitments," Brusuelas added.
Reuters, Coming next from the Fed: How much for Main Street?, Howard Schneider, 04/08/20: The U.S. Federal Reserve responded fast to the coronavirus crisis with open-ended programs to keep financial markets running and ensure major companies could raise cash as they usually do through large capital markets…Joseph Brusuelas, an economist with business consulting firm RSM who has followed the Fed’s crisis response closely, expects the Fed to receive an $85 billion capital contribution from Treasury and turn that into $1 trillion of lending power for businesses. Also picked up in The New York Times, U.S. News & World Report and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Associated Press, Federal Reserve to boost small business lending efforts, Christopher Rugaber,04/06/20: The Federal Reserve said Monday it will support the government’s $349 billion small business lending program, which had a rocky start Friday…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an advisory firm that works with medium-sized companies, said the Fed’s move is intended to encourage more banks to participate because many are reluctant to lend to small companies. “This should help ... reverse risk aversion among potential lenders to provide bridge financing for small firms that otherwise would likely not survive the first phase of the crisis,” Brusuelas said. Also picked up in The New York Times, ABC News and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Fortune, Are we headed for a depression? Economists weigh in, Erik Sherman, 04/04/20: Another day, another surprise for the economic forecasters: a record 6.6 million people filed for unemployment last week. Oxford Economics in an email called it an "incomprehensible jump" that may be "the new normal." Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for middle market audit and advisory firm RSM, wrote that such "tectonic shifts" imply a "real-time unemployment rate of 10.1% at a minimum."
CBS Moneywatch, Coronavirus slammed the job market in March, Irina Ivanova and Alain Sherter, 04/03/20: The U.S. government's latest employment report shows that hiring plunged in March as the coronavirus brought a sudden stop to a record 113 straight months of job growth — and that, unfortunately, is the good news…The March report is "a sober, clear-eyed precursor to what is going to be the largest bloodletting in the labor market since the 1929-1933 period of the Great Depression," RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said in a note.
The Hill, Economy sheds 701K jobs in March as coronavirus devastates businesses, Sylvan Lane, 04/03/20: The U.S. lost 701,000 jobs in March as the growing coronavirus pandemic devastated the American economy and ended more than a decade of uninterrupted employment growth, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM, said Thursday that the historic rise in jobless claims means the current unemployment rate is likely at least 10.1 percent.
Reuters, Instant View: Coronavirus slams U.S. jobs growth in March, 04/03/20: The U.S. economy abruptly ended a historic 113 straight months of employment growth in March, as stringent measures to control the novel coronavirus pandemic shuttered businesses and factories, all but confirming a recession is underway…Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM, in Austin, Texas: “The March jobs report foreshadows the earthquake and aftershocks that are rolling through the U.S. labor market. Policymakers and investors should expect several more months of such job losses. What we are watching in real time is the greatest bloodletting in the American labor market since the Great Depression.” Similar articles also featured in Reuters, The New York Times, Yahoo! Finance and Seeking Alpha, among others.
Reuters, New York mayor begs for more U.S. aid as jobs data confirms economic carnage, Maria Caspani and Lucia Mutikani, 04/03/20: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio pleaded with the U.S. government for more help in expectation of a surge in COVID-19 cases next week, as new statistics emerged confirming that hundreds of thousands of people across the country have lost their jobs…“What we are watching in real time is the greatest bloodletting in the American labor market since the Great Depression,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in Austin, Texas. Similar articles also featured in Reuters, The New York Times and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Business Insider, 'Grim, but only the start': Here's what 5 economists have to say about the dismal March jobs report, Carmen Reinicke, 04/03/20: On Friday, the March jobs report showed that the US economy lost more jobs than economists were expecting, a worrying sign about the damage to come amid the coronavirus pandemic…"Following 113 straight months of job gains, the U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March, providing a glimpse of things to come," Joe Brusuelas, RSM's chief economist, wrote in a Friday note.
Yahoo! Finance, 'We just partially captured what’s going to happen -- this was just a precursor': Economist on unemployment numbers, 04/03/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance’s “On The Move” to address the massive number of job cuts in March.
TD Ameritrade, Calvin Schnure And Joe Brusuelas Discuss The March Employment Situation, 04/03/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins TD Ameritrade Network’s “The Watch List” to discuss the March employment report.
Inc., More Help Is on the Way for Middle Market Companies, Diana Ransom, 04/03/20: As businesses race to apply for government-backed Covid-19-relief loans as part of the $2 trillion stimulus package, many business owners--those 200,000 or so who run midsize companies--are eagerly waiting for details on the lending program in the works specifically for them…"This will be probably the most popular program of all the crisis programs that are being put forward because it does involve Main Street," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consultancy focused on middle-market businesses in Chicago.
Washington Post, The past two weeks wiped out all the economy’s job gains since the 2016 election, Heather Long and Abha Bhattarai, 04/02/20: The coronavirus recession is shaping up to be the biggest blow to the U.S. economy since the Great Recession, and fears are rising that it could take years to reverse the damage, especially for millions of Americans who are losing their jobs and businesses…As the pandemic has spread to so many sectors, nearly one out of five small- and medium-sized businesses are at risk of bankruptcy, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM, which specializes in the midsized market. As businesses close, they won’t rehire workers. “Firms with less than 100 people are the ones that really need the help,” he said.
CNN Business, 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week — a record high as coronavirus takes its toll, Anneken Tappe, 04/02/20: The last three weeks have marked one of the most devastating periods in history for the American job market, as first-time claims for unemployment benefits have surged more than 3,000% since early March…This "tectonic shift" in the US labor market "implied a real-time unemployment rate of 10.1% at a minimum," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Similar article also featured in CFO Magazine.
Seeking Alpha, Two week jobless increase worse than first 6 months of Great Recession, Stephen Alpher, 04/02/20: Adding it all up, Joe Brusuelas says the 10M initial jobless claims over the past two weeks should send the unemployment rate over 10%. That two-week increase is a bigger number than the first six months of the Great Recession one decade ago. Policymakers, he says, should brace for total claims to soon approach 15M. Forget the V-shaped recovery, says Brusuelas, a larger fiscal aid package will be necessary, and recovery will take years.
Yahoo! Finance, More than 66 million U.S. jobs are at 'high risk' of layoffs amid coronavirus, St. Louis Fed finds, Aarthi Swaminathan, 04/01/20: As the coronavirus, or COVID-19, wreaks havoc on the U.S. economy, more than 66 million jobs across sales, production, and food preparation services are at “high risk” of layoffs, according to a St. Louis Federal Reserve economist…“Corporate America is engaged in giant experiment regarding what tasks can be done remotely,” RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “Firms are learning what can be done and who can do it. Once this is sorted out, then firms can reduce their expensive physical commercial real estate footprint.”
USA Today, How quickly can the economy bounce back from the coronavirus?, Paul Davidson, 03/31/20: Can the economy really come roaring back from the coronavirus recession as soon as this summer, as President Donald Trump has promised?...Some of the after-effects could lead to lasting changes that further crimp the economy over the longer term. Many companies could continue the work-at-home set-ups they’ve adopted during the outbreak, hammering office building construction, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of consulting firm RSM.
Cato Institute, When the Fed Tried to Save Main Street, George Selgin, 03/30/20: Any day now, the Federal Reserve will start making loans to small and medium-sized businesses, breaking new ground with its Section 13(3) lending authority…Thanks to Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US (a "middle market" tax and audit consulting firm), we know a little more than that about the Fed's plan. Using comments from Fed officials (particularly Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic), Brusuelas has come up with a compelling composite sketch of the Fed's planned arrangement, including its official name: the "Temporary Corporate and Small Business Liquidity Facility," or TCSLF.
Wall Street Journal, March Jobs Report Unlikely to Show Full Impact of the Coronavirus Crisis, Eric Morath and Paul Kiernan, 03/29/20: The March employment report will show a hit to the U.S. job market due to the novel coronavirus pandemic, but it is unlikely to show the depth of the crash because the data reflect the month’s first weeks…Friday’s report is “not going to really capture the significant damage out there that occurred,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “Investors and policy makers should just throw it out. It’s just a remembrance of things past.”
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Cash-strapped Americans will face excruciating wait for coronavirus relief money, Tory Newmyer, 03/27/20: The most financially vulnerable Americans can’t rest easy even as the $2 trillion coronavirus economic rescue package is expected to pass. The wait to collect their relief money threatens to outlast their meager savings…The pain will be concentrated in large metro areas, which are likely to see a surge in their homeless populations, says RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas. “The people who live on the edge of society are most at risk of becoming homeless if they aren’t on the receiving end of assistance for four months,” he says.
MarketWatch, Here’s how the Fed is funneling $4 trillion of funds to the real economy, Sunny Oh, 03/27/20: Small and medium businesses are set to become the next target of the Federal Reserve’s measures to open up the flow of credit throughout an economy that has threatened to freeze up over the coronavirus pandemic which has shutdown businesses across the country…“This is going to save Main Street,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM.
Washington Post, It was the worst week for the economy in decades. The pain is just beginning., Heather Long, 03/26/20: The record 3.3 million jobless claims reported Thursday mark the beginning of an economic crisis facing American workers and businesses — a slump, experts say, that will only end when the coronavirus pandemic is contained…“The smaller the firm, the more damage this is going to cause,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an audit firm that specializes in midsized companies. “What we’re hearing from smaller customers is for some of them it is too late.”
Politico, Welcome to the horror show, Ben White, 03/26/20: This morning at 8:30 a.m. we get the first real picture of the carnage via weekly jobless claims. The record is about 600K. Estimates for today’s number range from 1.5 million to 7 million…RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Essentially, for each increase of 1.5 million in first time claims it equals a 1% increase in the unemployment rate. Thus, the Bloomberg consensus at this time implies a 1.5 million increase in claims, which if true, indicates an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% to 4.5% … in the April employment report.” Similar articles also featured in Seeking Alpha and BBC.
Christian Science Monitor, As jobless numbers spike, a question rises: When can economy reopen?, Laurent Belsie and Henry Gass, 03/26/20: Some Americans are beginning to chafe under the coronavirus restrictions that authorities have put into place – not least of them President Donald Trump, who this week suggested lifting restrictions at least partially by Easter on April 12 to start revving up the economy…“We’re not anywhere near a flattening of the curve” of infection, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM US LLP, part of a global network of independent audit, tax, and consulting firms. “Should we move prematurely, it could risk the general spread of the disease that would require subsequent shutdowns.”
Politico, Trump's dangerous dance with Wall Street, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 03/25/20: CNBC reported that President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence held a conference call on Tuesday with big Wall Street investors to discuss re-starting the economy during the coronavirus crisis…RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Based on our economic analysis, the U.S. is better off taking a one-time hit to economic growth, as efforts to terminate the virus continue, rather than run the risk of multiple economic shutdowns.”
Wall Street Journal, Coronavirus Triggers Record Drops in U.S., European Business Activity, Harriet Torry, Paul Hannon and Megumi Fujikawa, 03/24/20: The U.S. and Europe saw record declines in business activity in March, as economic activity slowed around the world due to measures aimed at containing the new coronavirus…The March PMI numbers are “the foreshadowing of a much deeper and broader decline in manufacturing and service activity across the globe and in the U.S.,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. The scope of the economic hit “really is going to depend on the evolution of efforts to contain the disease,” he added. Also picked up in Yahoo! News, Market Screener and Morningstar, among others.
Reuters, Coronavirus pandemic battering global economy: surveys, Leigh Thomas and Lucia Mutikani, 03/24/20: Business activity collapsed from Australia, Japan and Western Europe to the United States at a record pace in March as measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic hammer the world economy, cementing economists’ views of a deep global recession…“Sending the public back to work at this time would be premature,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “The U.S. is better off taking a one-time hit to economic growth, as efforts to terminate the virus continue, rather than run the risk of multiple economic shutdowns.” Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance and The New York Times, among others.
Associated Press, Fed makes strongest bid yet to protect firms and governments, Christopher Rugaber, 03/24/20: The Federal Reserve is unleashing its boldest effort yet to protect the U.S. economy from the coronavirus by helping companies and governments pay their bills and survive a devastating crisis…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax and advisory firm, said that if Congress can pass the legislation and have it signed into law by Tuesday, banks could start making loans to small and medium-sized businesses, with the Fed’s support, by Friday. Also picked up in ABC News, among others.
MarketWatch, Fed is now effectively the ‘lender of last resort’ to Main Street not just Wall Street, Greg Robb, 03/23/20: During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve was stung by criticism that its lending programs to get credit flowing in the economy benefitted Wall Street not Main Street… “The Fed threw a lifeline to Main Street by announcing a significant intervention into the real economy and financial markets that intends to limit what will be a gut-wrenching increase in first-time jobless claims, unemployment, income losses and bankruptcies this year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Politico, Fears mount of a coronavirus-induced depression, Ben White, 03/23/20: Forecasts of doom for the American economy are quickly turning from gray to pitch black…“Disruption will take the form of a depression-like set of shocks that will require a significant intervention by the federal government into economic and social life for the foreseeable future,” RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote on Monday. The latest moves by the Fed and other government institutions “are just the latest in a series of actions that are likely to continue throughout this year and likely next in response to the global public health emergency caused by the Covid-19 virus.”
Associated Press, Q&A: What did the Fed do Monday and who will it help?, Christopher Rugaber, 03/23/20: The Federal Reserve took several aggressive steps Monday to support an economy ravaged by the effects of the coronavirus…Well, the Fed also announced Monday that it would soon set up the “Main Street Business Lending Program,” but it did not provide much information about the timing. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, predicts that it will offer a very low interest rate, such as 2.25%, over five years with quarterly payments. Also picked up in The New York Times, ABC News and U.S. News & World Report, among others.
Reuters, A Fed 'bailout' for Main Street? Speed, collateral stand in the way, Howard Schneider, 03/23/20: U.S. Federal Reserve and Trump administration officials over the last week have greased corporate and bank financial markets, freed up half a trillion dollars for central banks in other countries, and pledged to keep major industries such as the airlines afloat…“We are heading to an effective partial shutdown of the U.S. economy over the period of four to six weeks,” that may require as much as $1.5 trillion to help small and medium sized businesses survive, more than four times what’s in the Senate bill for small business loans, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Also picked up in The New York Times, Yahoo! Finance and U.S. News & World Report, among others.
CBS Moneywatch, Millions of workers already filing for unemployment benefits, Wall Street says, Irina Ivanova, 03/20/20: Workers are losing their jobs at an unprecedented pace as the coronavirus shutters businesses and brings the economy to a sudden stop…It can take anywhere from two to four weeks for a laid-off worker to show up in the official unemployment statistics, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the global accountancy RSM. "This is going to be a rolling exercise in estimating the damage to the labor market due to the crisis."
Axios, U.S. jobless filings jump to 2-year high ahead of coronavirus impact, Dion Rabouin, 03/19/20: U.S. unemployment filings surged to 281,000 in the week ended March 14 — a two-year high and an increase of 70,000 from the week prior — according to Labor Department data released Thursday… "Given the job destruction that we are witnessing, policymakers and investors should anticipate first-time claims to soar toward the five-year moving average of 242,300 in the next few weeks," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, says in a note to clients.
CBS Moneywatch, Unemployment claims soar 33% as coronavirus hits home, Irina Ivanova, 03/19/20: The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits surged to their highest level in over two years, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. It takes anywhere from two to four weeks for a laid-off worker to show up in federal unemployment claims data, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at global accounting firm RSM told CBS MoneyWatch. During the current economic expansion, workers file an average of 243,000 jobless claims per week, he said.
Marketplace, Weekly unemployment claims start to give a snapshot of COVID-19 layoffs, Mitchell Hartman, 03/19/20: We got an important economic report from the Labor Department Thursday morning — first-time claims for state unemployment benefits. When the number starts going up sharply, it’s often a warning sign that the economy’s in trouble…Joseph Brusuelas at RSM Consulting said states are now being flooded with requests for unemployment benefits, and we should expect more. “Over the next two to four weeks, a massive increase in first-time initial jobless claims,” Brusuelas said.
Seeking Alpha, White House reconsiders new 50-, 25-year bonds to fund stimulus – Bloomberg, Liz Kiesche, 03/19/20: The Trump administration is revisiting the idea of issuing ultra-long bonds as it considers how to finance a $1.3T fiscal stimulus plan, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter…"With the risk of negative rates out along the curve, the issuance of 50 year debt is a good idea," RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas says.
The Week, The best way to avoid a coronavirus depression, James Pethokoukis, 03/19/20: On the eve of World War One, British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey famously remarked, "The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time." …Forget about a V-shaped recession and recovery. It would look more like a Nike swoosh, as economist Joseph Brusuelas has described it.
Cheddar, RSM Chief Economist: $1 Trillion Fiscal Bailout Not Enough For US, 03/18/20: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist of RSM US LLP, joins Cheddar to discuss how the government plans to help Americans amid the coronavirus outbreak.
CBS Moneywatch, So many people are filing for unemployment, it's crashing government websites, Irina Ivanova, 03/18/20: As the coronavirus pandemic shuts down business across the county, a surge in newly laid off workers is crashing states' unemployment websites…The number of workers filing for unemployment could exceed the 660,000 a week reached during the Great Recession and even the 695,000 hit during the recession of 1982, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a global accounting consultancy. "Given the three shocks—supply, demand, and financial—that are cascading in the real economy as we speak, we are likely to exceed the all-time high sometime in next two months," Brusuelas said.
CNBC, The story on the Street: ‘People sell what they can sell, not what they want to sell’, Jeff Cox, 03/18/20: The easiest thing is to blame the computers and the algorithms that keep them going, propelling the market ever lower in a death spiral that doesn’t seem like it will end. But that’s only part of the story that has churned out the most violent bear market in Wall Street history…“You’ve got a combination of panic, margin calls and fear,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “They’re selling what they can sell and heading for the doors as quickly as they can.”
Forbes, NYSE To Close Trading Floor After Trader Reportedly Tests Positive For Coronavirus, Sarah Hansen, 03/18/20: The New York Stock Exchange will temporarily close its trading floor and move to fully electronic trading, the exchange announced on Wednesday, in response to the coronavirus outbreak; the move comes as investor fears and business disruptions caused by the virus continue to take an immense toll on markets…“Can’t help but think it’s the end of an era,” tweeted RSM U.S. LLP chief economist Joseph Brusuelas.
Wall Street Journal, Canada Rolls Out Fiscal Boost and Tax Deferrals for Coronavirus Relief, Paul Viera, 03/18/20: Canada announced a fiscal-stimulus and tax-deferral package amounting to nearly 4% of its gross domestic product, marking an aggressive effort to contain economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic and lower oil prices…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and financial advisory firm RSM US LLP, said Canada’s financial system is exhibiting “disturbing conditions,” with stress reaching levels similar to the 2008 financial crisis. “The current shock to the financial system could be catastrophic,” he added. Also picked up in Morningstar and MarketScreener, among others.
S&P Global Intelligence, March retail market: US sales slip in February as coronavirus fears intensify, Tayyeba Irum and Chris Hudgins, 03/18/20: Experts predict rough months ahead for U.S. consumer spending as fears over the coronavirus outbreak contributed to a drop in retail sales in February over the previous month…"Consumers pulled back across the board on spending in February as the onset of the coronavirus began to shape household expectations about the economy and society," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP said March 17.
MarketWatch, Costs of Fed’s new funding facility for big businesses draws complaints, Sunny Oh, 03/17/20: Investors gave a sigh of relief on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve took aggressive action to backstop the more than $1 trillion commercial paper market amid signs that it was freezing up in the last few days…“Those levels set by the Fed are entirely appropriate, given the prevailing economic and financial conditions,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Associated Press, Fed launches 2 emergency programs last seen in 2008 crisis, Christopher Rugaber, 03/17/2020: In its latest emergency action, the Federal Reserve is establishing a lending facility to try to ease the flow of short-term credit to banks and businesses as the economy grinds to a halt from the viral outbreak…“The goal is to prevent a larger catastrophe that includes soaring bankruptcies, unemployment and underemployment,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM. “While we are encouraged by this policy step, the Treasury will need to step up with other funds and bridge loans” that can help companies with lower credit ratings. Also picked up in The New York Times, U.S. News & World Report and Los Angeles Times, among others.
Washington Post, Federal Reserve launches special fund to keep credit flowing in U.S. economy during coronavirus scare, Heather Long, 03/17/20: The Federal Reserve is launching a special fund to keep credit flowing in the U.S. economy, yet another emergency measure as the world spirals toward a recession…“The [Fed’s] goal is to prevent a larger catastrophe that includes soaring bankruptcies, unemployment and underemployment,” wrote Joseph Brusuelas, an economist at audit firm RSM, in a note to clients.
Politico, Fed wages furious battle to unclog financial markets, Victoria Guida, 03/17/20: The Federal Reserve is aggressively moving to keep money flowing through financial markets battered by the coronavirus pandemic, making hundreds of billions of dollars available to ensure that cash is available to investors, companies and consumers…But Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said the Fed is ultimately constrained in how much it can do, in part because its emergency lending powers for firms other than banks were reined in after the 2008 financial crisis.
WWD, Retail Sales Decline a Sign of Pain to Come, Evan Clark, 03/17/20: There are still more questions than answers about how hard the coronavirus will hit the economy, but one thing can be said for the impact — it’s started…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at middle-market consulting firm RSM, said the retail sales report was “foreshadowing the Great Reset.” “This data, which will be one of many reports going forward that show the slowdown in the economy, is why the federal government needs to engage in bold and persistent action to put a floor under the American economy in general and for small and medium businesses in particular,” Brusuelas said. Similar article also featured in Luxury Daily.
Politico, How ugly could it get? Trump faces echoes of 1929 in coronavirus crisis., Ben White, 03/16/20: The early signals from the coronavirus crisis point to a scale of damage unseen in the modern U.S. economy: the potential for millions of jobs lost in a single month, a historic and sudden plunge in economic activity across the nation and a pace of sharp market swings not seen since the Great Depression… “With new measures being put in place by the hour, the federal government at some point will have to consider a modern version of the bank holiday imposed by the Roosevelt administration back in 1933,” RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a client note.
Wall Street Journal, Stocks Open Sharply Lower After Fed Slashes Rates, Amrith Ramkumar, Chong Koh Ping and Anna Hirtenstein, 03/16/20: U.S. stocks plunged Monday even after the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark interest rate to near zero as investors remained concerned that the emergency measures won’t suffice to ward off a recession caused by the coronavirus pandemic…The reaction in U.S. markets showed investors were already looking past the Fed and waiting for the federal government to act with bigger stimulus measures, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S. “Until they signal that they understand the magnitude of the coming demand shock, markets will continue to sell off and be subject to significant volatility,” Mr. Brusuelas said. Similar articles also featured in MarketScreener and Morningstar.
Benzinga, 'Dusting Off The Financial Crisis Playbook:' Dow Futures Point To Drop After Fed Announces Emergency Rate Cut, Jason Shubnell, 03/15/20: The U.S. stock futures market fell at the open Sunday evening, not long after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to zero to 0.25%, the first time interest rates have been that low since the 2008-2009 financial crisis…"Restoring market functioning will not be easy and it is possible that despite the significant intervention back into capital markets today that it will not change the minds of risk averse market participants," said Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Yahoo! Finance, This week in Trumponomics: How to fail, Rick Newman, 03/13/20: An invisible bug is killing the Trump presidency. With stock markets plunging and coronavirus anxiety spreading, President Trump is following his usual game plan: Blame others. Attack enemies. Deny trouble. Change the subject…Economists think a recession is increasingly likely. “The exogenous shock of coronavirus … has now spilled over into the real economy,” economist Joe Brusuelas of financial firm RSM wrote on March 13.
Washington Post, Keeping your distance is good for public health but tough for small businesses, Jeanne Whalen, 03/13/20: As daily routines shut down in D.C. and beyond over the novel coronavirus, customers are disappearing for the small businesses that make up 44 percent of the U.S. economy…“We’re about to conduct a grand experiment in the United States. We’re going to figure out exactly every task that’s part of work that can be done remotely,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an auditing and consulting firm. “Small and medium-sized firms, these are the firms that are most likely going to need temporary bridge financing … to survive a sharp, albeit transitory, decline in economic activity.”
Axios, Brace for coronavirus supply shocks, Dion Rabouin, Joann Muller, Bob Herman and Courtenay Brown, 03/12/20: Products from major American companies including Apple, GM, Coca-Cola and even Facebook may soon become unavailable, as the fallout from the COVID-19 outbreak backs up and shuts down global supply chains…The supply shortage will likely expand significantly, experts say. "As East Asia starts to recover, the focus turns to Europe and then to North America," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios.
Tax Notes, Economists Split on Merits of Payroll Tax Cut to Bolster Economy, Jonathan Curry, 03/10/20: A pair of economists are pressing policymakers to quickly act on a payroll tax cut to help deliver relief to American households from the economic effects of the coronavirus, but others in the profession are less enthusiastic. “We know what to do to address a series of supply, demand, and financial shocks that are currently cascading through the economy,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US LLP, said on a March 9 National Association for Business Economics webinar. “What’s really called for here is a set of policies that will inject cash into household balance sheets, whether that’s through direct payments or a temporary payroll tax holiday.”
Commercial Property Executive, Policy Remedies for Coronavirus Appear Imminent, Paul Fiorilla, 03/10/20: Determining how to react to the coronavirus in policy terms has been held back by the uncertainty about its effect on public health. The speed and depth of the market reaction in recent days has changed that calculus: Policymakers are likely to be forced to act even though it remains unclear exactly how bad the health implications will be…Speaking at a webinar on Monday sponsored by the National Association for Business Economics, RSM U.S. Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas identified several types of economic shocks that could be caused by the coronavirus.
MarketWatch, Here’s how investors say policy makers could help businesses survive a coronavirus cash crunch, Sunny Oh, 03/10/20: The unique economic risk presented by the viral illness COVID-19 is roiling Wall Street as market participants wonder what measures that policy makers could take to ameliorate pressure on corporations facing a potential cash and credit crunch…Some economists, like Joseph Brusuelas at RSM, suggest the central bank’s supervisors could push banks to become more lax toward borrowers, so that viable companies are not pushed into bankruptcy when they skip a debt payment.
Seeking Alpha, Alpha Trader Talks Virus Fallout With Ryan Detrick And Joe Brusuelas, 03/10/20: This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking about the market fallout from the coronavirus with LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick and the economic fallout with RSM's Joe Brusuelas…It's a highly unusual three-way shock facing the U.S. economy, says Joe Brusuelas - that's a supply shock, a demand shock, and a market shock. Even with all that, he's not expecting a recession, but instead an H1 slowdown to less than 1% growth (mostly to be seen in Q2 data).
The Hill, Coronavirus, oil prices drive market meltdown, Sylvan Lane and Rachel Frazin, 03/09/20: The twin threat of an expanding coronavirus outbreak and an oil price war hammered markets on Monday, raising the stakes of a global economic slowdown…“What I’m looking at here is the market preparing for a much larger shock to the economy and uncertainty for the rebound that will follow,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in The Hill (1) and The Hill (2).
Marketplace, February jobs numbers don’t reveal much about economic impact of COVID-19, Mitchell Hartman, 03/06/20: Up to the week of Feb. 10 — when the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveyed employers and households to put together the monthly jobs report released Friday — things were still going pretty swimmingly. At least, in the U.S., which hadn’t been hit by a lot of the new coronavirus infections, related economic disruptions and financial market turmoil…The latest job report shows 273,000 new jobs in February and unemployment falling to 3.5%. For Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM Consulting, it’s “really the ‘last waltz’ of strong and robust monthly hiring.”
CNN Business, The US job market is strong -- but coronavirus could wreck it, Anneken Tappe, 03/06/20: America's labor market remained buoyant in February, Friday's jobs report showed. But economists are worried about whether the positive trend can hold up amid coronavirus concerns…Even though the US economy appears in good shape to absorb the shock the coronavirus outbreak is dealing to economies around the world, the jobs report -- like most economic data -- is backward-looking and doesn't allow a real-time assessment of the economy. So it might be time to pay more attention to shorter term employment data like weekly initial jobless claims going forward, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Similar coverage appeared in Seeking Alpha.
Wall Street Journal, Newsletter Special Edition: Labor-Market Momentum, 03/06/20: Employers added 273,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell back to a half-century low in February, signs of labor-market strength before the novel coronavirus started to spread in the U.S…"Policymakers and investors should take one last good look at the February U.S. employment data because it effectively represents the end of the multi-year string of strong monthly jobs reports." —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US.
Reuters, U.S. employment report expected to show strength before coronavirus spread, Lucia Mutikani, 03/05/20: U.S. job growth likely slowed in February, but the pace probably remained consistent with a healthy labor market despite the coronavirus outbreak, which stoked financial market fears of a recession and prompted an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve…“Recession fears are a bit premature, a good portion of the economy is strong enough to absorb the first wave of hits,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US in New York. Also picked up in The New York Times, Yahoo! Finance and Business Insider, among others.
CNN Business, The Fed might have to cut interest rates all the way to zero Matt Egan, 03/04/20: The Federal Reserve's quest to avoid a coronavirus-fueled recession may just be getting started…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in the event of a "large economic downturn," the federal government should create a special lending facility that would provide financing directly to small and medium-sized businesses. The goal would be to minimize layoffs and bankruptcies. "We're going to have to rely on the big guns: the fiscal bazooka," Brusuelas said.
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas Discusses The Market's Reaction To Fed Emergency Cut, 03/03/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas appeared on TD Ameritrade’s “The Watch List” to discuss the market’s reaction to the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut.
Wall Street Journal, Stocks Drop Despite Surprise Fed Rate Cut, Akane Otani and Anna Isaac, 03/03/20: U.S. stocks and government bond yields slid Tuesday after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, but failed to assuage the anxieties of money managers monitoring the economic fallout from the coronavirus epidemic…“Fiscal authorities need to be the one that lead the way,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, which has lowered its forecast for U.S. gross domestic product growth to 1% for the first quarter. “Monetary policy is not well positioned to address supply shocks.” Similar article in ETF Trends and Morningstar.
Washington Post, Here’s what economists say the U.S. and other nations should do to avoid a coronavirus recession, Heather Long, 03/03/20: Economists and Wall Street investors had high hopes for a big global stimulus Tuesday as top economic leaders from the world’s major economies held a call to discuss how to address the coronavirus, which many say poses the biggest threat to the global economy since the Great Recession. But a statement released after the call did not include any new action, a major disappointment to many…“Fed policy can’t develop a vaccine, but it can quell a panic and bolster financial conditions,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the audit firm RSM.
Los Angeles Times, Fed makes emergency rate cut amid fears coronavirus will wallop the economy, Don Lee, 03/03/20: The Federal Reserve, reacting swiftly to the coronavirus’ damaging blows to the economy, announced a sizable interest rate cut Tuesday — the first such emergency rate action since the Great Recession more than a decade ago…Those steps are likely to include regulatory relief and a special lending facility to help offset potential increases in unemployment and bankruptcies, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. “It will soon be time for the federal government to bring out its biggest gun: fiscal firepower,” he said. Similar article in Xinhua.
Yahoo! Finance, Fed looks to 'stabilize financial markets' with rate cut: Economist, 03/03/20: The Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points today, which RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas says is their attempt to "stabilize financial markets". He joins the On the Move panel to discuss.
The New York Times, Why a Coronavirus Recession Would Be So Hard to Contain, Neil Irwin, 02/29/20: It looks more and more likely that the novel form of coronavirus will do meaningful economic damage to the United States…If a potential coronavirus downturn were a fire, the recession-fighters would be like a fire brigade low on supplies, fighting among themselves, and probably lacking the right chemicals to quench the flames anyway. “I’m looking at the combination of fiscal and monetary policy as potential triage,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM. “All they can do is really mitigate the shock of supply chains and reduce the second-order effects.”
The Hill, Fed chief hints toward rate cut amid Wall Street coronavirus rout, Sylvan Lane, 02/28/20: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the central bank will likely take action to boost the U.S. economy amid a steep stock market selloff triggered by the coronavirus outbreak…"Fed action is warranted and will bolster financial conditions. However, it’s a necessary but not sufficient condition to address the crisis," said Joe Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at audit and tax firm RSM. "The fiscal authority will need to act robustly to address the needs of the real economy sooner rather than later."
NPR, News Brief: Coronavirus Effects, Democratic Nominating Contest, David Greene and Steve Inskeep, 02/28/20: Stocks continue their free-fall amid fears of the coronavirus…Up until now, investors sort of thought this would be a hit to the economy in the first three months of the year and then a quick recovery. Now, chief economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM says it looks like the damage is going to continue at least into the summer. “Effectively, at this point, I think the first half of the year, economically, we're being close to it being lost at this point, Brusuelas said.”
USA Today, Fed chief signals likely rate cut next month in response to coronavirus, market meltdown, Paul Davidson, 02/28/20: The head of the Federal Reserve on Friday signaled the central bank's apparent willingness to cut interest rates as soon as next month amid a stock market that’s in crisis mode in response to growing coronavirus fears…Powell "utilized well-directed and needed open mouth operations on Friday in an attempt to begin taking back control of the narrative," RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said in a note to clients. The only question, he said, is whether the Fed will reduce its key short-term rate by a quarter or half a point.
Yahoo! Finance, Stocks plunge as coronavirus fears escalate, 02/27/20: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins the On The Move panel to discuss the impact of coronavirus on the markets and where investors should look to in the long term.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Coronavirus is already disrupting the economy. Look at West Coast ports., Tory Newmyer, 02/27/20: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the consultancy RSM, was landing in Seattle about noon last Thursday when he noticed something odd from his plane window: There was only one ship in the city’s normally bustling port, and only one other ship actively offloading containers at a dock. Conversations with local business owners after he landed confirmed his suspicions, later backed up by data reflecting activity at West Coast ports: Fallout from the spread of the coronavirus in Asia is compounding a lingering hangover from the U.S.-China trade war, crimping the flow of goods from across the Pacific.
Axios, Market overwhelmingly expects rate cut next month, Dion Rabouin, 02/27/20: In one week, futures traders have gone from seeing virtually no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting to a more than three-quarters likelihood…"With Fed rate cut probabilities for the March meeting now at 70% either Powell, [vice chair Richard Clarida or N.Y. Fed president John Williams] need to address the shift in market expectations," RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas tells Axios in an email.
The Hill, Coronavirus complicates Fed decision on rates, Sylvan Lane, 02/26/20: The spread of the coronavirus is posing a dire challenge to the Federal Reserve as it seeks to keep the economy stable and defend its independence from President Trump’s attacks…“A Fed rate cut will bolster financial conditions but it will take months to filter through to the real economy,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at U.S. tax and audit firm RSM, in a Tuesday email. Brusuelas warned that if the coronavirus outbreak slumps the U.S. economy, it could take a special lending facility from the Fed and fiscal action from Congress to counter the damage.
Associated Press, Coronavirus poses tough challenge for economic policymakers, Paul Wiseman and Chris Rugaber, 02/25/20: The fast-moving coronavirus isn’t just confounding health officials. It’s also bedeviling policymakers and central bankers who are struggling to assess the economic damage from an outbreak that's reached 37 countries and territories, infected 80,000 people and killed 2,700 worldwide…So revving up demand is something policymakers are used to. But this time, they don’t have a go-to remedy for the kind of supply shock that the coronavirus is causing -- the lockdown of factories in China and elsewhere that is cutting off the flow of raw materials and finished products to customers around the globe. “Fed policy can’t fix that,’’ said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax advisory firm RSM. Also picked up in Washington Post, ABC News and The New York Times, among others.
USA Today, 'An economic pandemic': The coronavirus is becoming a bigger threat to the U.S., economists say, Paul Davidson, 02/25/20: As the coronavirus spreads and raises the risk of recession, some analysts are further downgrading their forecasts for the U.S. economy…Other economists have a more measured view. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas and Nationwide chief economist David Berson say the virus’s advance has not yet led them to further lower their forecasts. Both estimate the outbreak will trim first-quarter growth by a relatively modest two-tenths of a percentage point.
MarketWatch, The 10-year Treasury yield sets a new all-time low — here’s why, Sunny Oh, 02/25/20: A day after U.S. stock benchmarks recorded their biggest one-day selloff in two years, investors are taking shelter in the deepest, most liquid haven asset in the world — U.S. Treasurys…“The market is now pricing in a much slower pace of global growth that is consistent with around 2.5%, which is the widely accepted definition of a global recession,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in an interview.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Economic uncertainty from coronavirus, 2020 election is spooking investors, Tory Newmyer, 02/24/20: Nobody knows what’s going to happen next. That’s as true in financial markets as it is for the 2020 election. And the proof, in part, is in the divergence between a surging stock market and sinking yields for long-term Treasury bonds… From RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas: S&P futures point towards a decline of 91.50 on the open. That data viz is an apt illustration of the risk aversion across global markets this morning.
POLITICO, Morning Money, Victoria Guida, 02/21/2020: … Yield curve inversion, again — Over the past few days, rates on the 10-year Treasury have dropped below those on the three-month Treasury, a so-called yield curve inversion that has previously been a harbinger of a recession. This part of the Treasury rate curve inverted last year but normalized after the Federal Reserve carried out a series of interest rate cuts. RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas: “The policy sensitive curve … has inverted again. It is clearly reflecting expectations of a much greater slowdown in global economic growth than anticipated at the outset of the year. The big question is, will it cause global central banks to step in?”
POLITICO, Welcome to budget day!, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 02/10/2020: …RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The economy began the year with a strong pace of growth … but uncertainties point to modest activity ahead. That activity will be affected by the ability of the U.S. consumer to offset weak domestic manufacturing and the potential ripple effects of the coronavirus outbreak in China.”
Yahoo! Finance, Wage growth slows in January, 02/07/2020: LinkedIn Chief Economist Guy Berger joins Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro, Pras Subramanian, and RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas to talk about LinkedIn's latest job data as well as the new figures from the U.S. Department of Labor. NOTE: Additional video clip from the “On the Move” segment featuring Joe can be found here: Clip 1.
Associated Press, January US jobs report may provide clarity amid disruptions, 02/07/2020: With China’s viral outbreak disrupting trade and Boeing’s troubles weighing on American factories, the January U.S. jobs report on Friday may provide timely evidence of the U.S. economy’s enduring health… “It takes a little bloom off the rose,” said Joe Brusuelas, an economist at RSM, a tax advisory and consulting firm. Also picked up in the Washington Post and ABC News, among others.
Seeking Alpha, January jobs report isn't a 'breakout to the upside', economists say, Liz Kiesche, 02/07/2020: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, doesn't see the stronger-than-expected January job gains as "breakout to the upside." He points out that 44K increase in construction jobs and 72K new jobs in education and health aren't going to be repeated in February.
TD Ameritrade Network, Joe Brusuelas On What To Watch In The Jobs Report, 02/06/2020: Big week, we have ADP, we have jobless claims and tomorrow is the monthly report. What are you thinking?...We’re probably going to see a really healthy gain in the topline, about 155,000. The unemployment rate is going to hold steady around 3.5 percent. Wages are going to continue to be a bit sluggish.
Cheddar, China Slashes Tariffs on U.S. Imports by 50 Percent, 02/06/2020: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, discusses the impact of China cutting tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. products, and other market-moving events.
Bisnow, Sherwin-Williams HQ Is Not Coming To DFW, Kerri Panchuk, 02/06/2020: Paint giant Sherwin-Williams is not moving its corporate headquarters to Dallas-Fort Worth…RSM U.S. LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said at the time that all of the above would continue to create hurdles for relocating companies. “I think some of the internal issues in the state, especially around property taxes and a lack of labor, which drives up wages, suggest that things have slowed somewhat and at least for this year, it has fallen from the top perch in the CNBC study," Brusuelas said last year, when discussing Texas' fall from first place in CNBC's best places to do business survey.
Benzinga, What To Make Of The Wild Chinese Stock Market Swing And Its Impact On The US, Wayne Duggan, 02/05/2020: Despite a rising death toll and more than 20,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus infections in China, U.S. stocks came roaring back on Tuesday, seemingly shrugging off concerns that the virus could weigh on the Chinese economy and potentially negatively impact the entire global financial system…Wall Street analysts have estimated the virus will negatively impact China’s 2020 GDP growth by between 0.2% and 1.0% depending on the ultimate severity of the outbreak. On Monday, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said those estimates appear to be optimistic at this point.
Axios, The global economic threat of the coronavirus, Dion Rabouin, Joann Muller, 02/03/2020: The coronavirus has the potential to be as damaging to the global economy as the U.S.-China trade war, economists tell Axios, and if not contained could wreak havoc on businesses across the globe, with great uncertainty over how bad things could get... Between the lines: Fed chair Jerome Powell demurred action from the U.S. central bank at last week's January policy meeting, but his hand (and that of other central bankers) may be forced, Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios.
The Wall Street Journal, Boeing’s Woes Create Headwinds for U.S. Economy, Josh Mitchell and Doug Cameron, 02/02/2020: The U.S. economy just hit an air pocket…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says economists and investors may be underestimating the potential of a bigger hit as U.S. aerospace supply chains are disrupted. “Once those supply chains are shut down and labor begins to disperse into other jobs and other areas of the country, restarting those supply chains is much more difficult than commonly acknowledged,” he said. Also picked up in Morningstar.
Yahoo! Finance, WHO declares public health emergency for coronavirus, 01/30/2020: RSM LLP U.S. Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance’s Seana Smith to discuss the World Health Organization declaring the coronavirus a public health emergency.
The Wall Street Journal, Newsletter Special Report: GDP Steady, Outlook Stable, Jeffrey Sparshott, 01/30/2020: The U.S. economy headed into 2020 on solid footing, with growth settling back to the roughly 2% pace that has prevailed during the decade-old economic expansion…"Underlying fundamental estimates of growth showed an economy that continues to chug along at a slow and steady pace." —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US. Similar article also featured in China.org.
POLITICO, Morning Money, Ben White, 01/30/20: …RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “In his press conference following the statement publication Fed Chair Jay Powell, choose to pre-empt the financial media on risks around the coronavirus. Powell noted uncertainties around the outlook remain, including those posed by the new coronavirus.”
Axios, U.S. GDP growth slows to 2.3% in 2019, Courtenay Brown, 01/30/20: U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the final quarter of last year, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. For all of 2019, economic growth came in at 2.3% — less than the 2.9% in 2018…What they're saying: Heading into an election year, economic growth is "on unsteady footing," thanks to the indefinite production halt of Boeing's 737 Max and "global growth headwinds that may pick up linked to the coronavirus crisis across the globe," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, wrote in a note to clients.
POLITICO, Morning Money, Ben White, 01/29/20: There’s slightly more drama in today’s Fed announcement given investor concern over the coronavirus…Will Powell mention the virus? — RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “While we do not expect the Fed to acknowledge the Chinese-based outbreak in its policy statement due out on Wednesday — the news conference will be another matter.”
Forbes, Negative Rates: Economists Explain What Happens If The Fed Gives Trump What He Wants, Sergei Klebnikov, 01/28/20: Topline: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 1.50% to 1.75% range when it concludes its committee meeting on Wednesday, despite President Trump’s plethora of recent calls for the U.S. to adopt negative interest rates…“The evidence is lacking with respect to negative interest rates and economic growth,” says RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas. If we follow the pattern in Japan, we would likely see benefits to autos and housing, but because the U.S. economy is so highly “financialized”(reliant on big banks to provide liquidity for different sectors), negative rates wouldn’t yield a good outcome in the long-term, he argues.
BNN Bloomberg, Bank of Canada needs to start cutting rates: Economist, 01/21/2020: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss what to expect from the Bank of Canada's rate decision and why a cut could benefit the country's economy.
The Wall Street Journal, Consumer Spending Solid at End of Holiday Shopping Season, Harriet Torrey, 01/16/2020: Consumers headed into 2020 on a solid footing, driving up retail sales in the final month of the holiday season…Still, updated numbers from Commerce showed retail sales outside of motor vehicles and gasoline declined in the prior three months. After a recent high in that category in July, “we’ve been on a smooth descent ever since,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. Also picked up in Morningstar.
Business Insider, A quick guide to what Trump's 94-page trade deal with China included — and left out, 01/16/2020: The Trump administration released the text of an interim trade agreement with China on Wednesday, offering for the first time the details of what will be expected in a new chapter of relations between the two largest economies…“Interesting how an objective of the trade deal is to end state directed commerce and trade," said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM. "Yet, the very premise of the agreement is predicated on state to state directed transactions. This almost surely sets up future rounds of tension and tariffs." Similar articles also featured in Politico and Yahoo! Finance.
The Wall Street Journal, Newsletter: The Trade Deal No One Wanted, Jeffrey Sparshott, 01/14/2020: The U.S. labor market is still going strong. But there are signs weakness in the factory sector is bleeding into the rest of the economy…"The decline in aggregate hours worked is a function of the lagged impact of the trade war, the phase-one deal notwithstanding, and forward looking investors should anticipate a noticeable slowing in consumer spending in the first quarter of the year in addition to the traditional holiday hangover in overall consumption," said RSM US economist Joseph Brusuelas.
The Wall Street Journal, Women Overtake Men as Majority of U.S. Workforce, Amara Omeokwe, 01/10/2020: …Women held more jobs than men in December for the first time in nearly a decade. There were 109,000 more women than men on U.S. payrolls. The figures don't include farm labor or self-employment, where men tend to outnumber women. "However, a look at cyclical dynamics implies that the women have the initiative in traditional employment," said RSM US economist Joseph Brusuelas. “We all often look for tangible evidence of change. It is now here in the data and can be used as a benchmark to measure equality and inequality in the labor force and the economy.”
The Wall Street Journal, Newsletter Special Edition: Ten Straight Years of Job Growth, Jeffrey Sparshott, 01/10/2020: Women held more U.S. jobs than men in December for the first time in nearly a decade, a development that likely reflects the future of the American workforce…“The [jobs] report strongly suggests that the labor market dynamics are tilting in the direction of women,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said in a note to clients. “We all often look for tangible evidence of change. It is now here in the data and can be used as a benchmark to measure equality and inequality in the labor force and the economy.”
Marketplace, Women are working more jobs than men. It’s probably not a blip., Amy Scott, 01/10/2020: For the first time in almost a decade, women are working more jobs than men…But as women take over more workplaces, and rise in the ranks, employers will respond, according to Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “The whole notion of employment that’s largely been organized around the needs of men since the second World War is likely to change very quickly,” Brusuelas said. Expect to see more flexibility, better benefits and a smaller wage gap between men and women.
The Hill, Women now make up the majority of US workforce, Alexandra Kelley, 01/10/2020: Women held more U.S. jobs than men last December, the first time this has happened in nearly a decade. This is according to the Labor Department’s December payroll as reported in The Wall Street Journal. Women surpassed men by 109,000 jobs, holding 50.04 percent of jobs last month. The last time this happened was in mid-2010. In total, the U.S. saw an addition of 145,000 jobs in December 2019. Speaking to the Journal, Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at audit and consulting firm RSM, stated that the “the [jobs] report strongly suggests that the labor market dynamics are tilting in the direction of women.”
Yahoo! Finance, The best ways to increase household savings, 01/10/2020: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins the On The Move panel to discuss the best ways to increase household savings and where its best to invest for long-term benefits.
Yahoo! Finance, Money-losing companies on the rise despite bull market, 01/10/2020: A high proportion of public companies have been losing money despite this long bull market. Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, and Brian Cheung are joined by RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas to discuss.
Reuters, WRAPUP 1-U.S. job growth seen slowing in December after robust gains, Lucia Mutikani, 01/10/2020: U.S. job growth likely slowed in December, but the pace of hiring probably remains more than enough to keep the longest economic expansion in history on track despite a deepening downturn in a manufacturing sector stung by trade disputes…“We are bringing individuals back into the workforce who have been out for quite some time, they need significant training, in some cases retraining,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “We are not seeing higher wages because firms have to take all those costs.” Also picked up in New York Times.
Yahoo! Finance, US Adds 145K Jobs In December, Wage And Labor Market Gains Consistent With Fed's Outlook, 01/10/2020: The Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for the month of December, and the jobs report came in below economists expectations…RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said the December numbers are well within the range of the Fed's current economic outlook. "Modest wage and labor market gains are consistent with the Fed’s forward look on policy barring a significant exogenous shock to the economy," Brusuelas said. Similar article also featured in Benzinga.
NBC News, Hold steady and don't let the U.S.-Iran conflict derail your retirement funds, say investors, Martha C. White, 01/06/2020: The ripple effects from the death of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani continued to make geopolitical as well as economic waves around the world in the first full week of 2020…“American shale oil production has changed significantly,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, wrote on Friday, noting that U.S. output has risen by roughly 40 percent since 2014. “Given the changing oil supply dynamics, this is the primary reason why energy and commodity markets have been well behaved in the early hours following the airstrike,” he said.
Associated Press, Federal Reserve last month saw a declining risk of recession, Christopher Rugaber, 01/03/2020: The Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee saw much less risk of recession at its meeting last month, when it kept interest rates steady after three straight cuts and signaled that it expected to keep low rates unchanged through this year…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax advisory firm RSM, suggested that the risks to the U.S. economy “are, for now, contained.” “As a result, we do not expect any action by the Federal Reserve,” Brusuelas said. “There would need to be a much greater disruption to oil supply from the Persian Gulf to warrant a rate cut by the Fed in the near term.” Also picked up in The New York Times, ABC News and U.S. News & World Report, among others.
NPR.org, Oil Prices Reflect Concern, Not Panic, After Airstrike On Iranian General, Camila Domonoske, 01/03/2020: Oil is up and stocks are down: It's a predictable response to the dramatic U.S. attack on Iran's powerful military commander as tensions mount in the oil-rich Middle East…"Higher oil prices tend to cause outlays on capital expenditures in the oil, energy and extraction business, which sometimes will actually more than offset the drag caused by higher gasoline prices," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Compared to ten or twenty years ago, he says, "we're now in a very different spot."
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Manufacturing Shrinks for Fifth Month, Signaling Weak Start to 2020, Harriet Torry, 01/03/2020: The U.S. factory sector headed into 2020 on a weak footing, contracting in December for a fifth consecutive month as trade tensions continued to pressure manufacturers…“The ISM is the precursor of what’s likely to be a more noticeable decline in manufacturing sentiment in early 2020,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Benzinga, Why Oil And Gas Stocks Respond To Political Unrest, Wayne Duggan, 01/03/2020: News of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East sent stock prices tumbling nearly across the board on Friday morning. Every market sector traded lower, with the lone exception of the energy sector…The good news for U.S. investors is that the nation is not nearly as vulnerable to Middle East oil production disruptions as it was just a decade or two ago. “U.S. shale oil production has changed significantly in just the past four years. increasing to 9.2 million barrels per day at present from 5.2 at the end of 2016,” RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said Friday. Similar article in Yahoo! Finance.
BNN Bloomberg, Look for modest, unspectacular growth for Canada in 2020: RSM, 12/30/2019: Canadian economic growth was muted to cap off 2019 after a hot start to the year. For perspective on this, and why he sees modest, unspectacular growth in 2020, BNN Bloomberg spoke with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Cheddar, Holiday Cheer for Amazon and Apple at End of 2019, 12/27/2019: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, discusses big wins for Amazon and Apple ahead of the new year.
Xinhua, Yearender: U.S. Fed's sharp policy U-turn in 2019, 12/26/2019: After four rate hikes in 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2019, making a remarkable and sharp U-turn in its monetary policy…"This reinforces our view that with the 2020 elections approaching, the Fed will keep interest rates on hold," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, an audit, tax and consulting firm.
POLITICO, 3 factors that could make or break Trump in 2020, Ben White, 12/23/2019: The president’s big economic achievements were wrapped up in 2019. Now Trump needs momentum in the economy and markets to stretch out for more than 10 months through Election Day…The halt to Boeing 737 Max production next month will likely shave half a percentage point off first-quarter economic growth, RSM economist Joe Brusuelas said in a note to clients. “The economic damage will likely be noted via the inventory channel, factory orders, industrial production and likely headcount among aircraft suppliers.”
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas Discusses The Effects Of The Boeing 737 Grounding, 12/19/2019: RSM does a survey about what people expect from a sentiment standpoint. Walk me through what you guys are seeing…What we create is a Middle Market Business Index. This is an index of main street businesses. Things are looking very, very solid.
Associated Press, Halting 737 Max production will hit suppliers, airlines, Tom Krisher, 12/17/2019: RSM Joseph Brusuelas: As Boeing prepares to shutter much of a huge factory near Seattle that builds the grounded 737 Max jet, the economic hit is reverberating across the United States in places such as Wichita, Kansas, Stamford, Connecticut, and Cincinnati…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a tax advisory and consulting firm, predicted layoffs by suppliers and wrote in a note that some may have trouble staying in business. Similar articles in CNN Business, Politico, Washington Post and Manufacturing.net, among others.
CNBC, 'Decade of the central bank' ends with the Fed and its global cohorts in need of some new tricks, Jeff Cox, 12/17/2019: On Nov. 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve launched the shot heard around the financial world. The central bank announced it would start using digitally created money to buy mortgage debt in an effort to drive down interest rates and resuscitate a dead housing market… "We're going into a very different period of Federal Reserve policy than we've experienced since 2012. I think what they are going to be putting into play is a more aggressive form of forward guidance," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Middle Market Growth, November Retail Sales Not Full of Holiday Cheer, Joseph Brusuelas, 12/16/2019: The traditional holiday sales did not get off a robust start in November, which was most likely because of a late Thanksgiving holiday that pushed some spending into December. After peaking in mid-2019, overall retail sales will need to pick up in December to support growth anywhere near 2% in the current quarter…Brusuelas is chief economist for RSM US LLP.
Axios, Economists shrug off downbeat retail sales, 12/16/2019: What's happening: Rather than interpret the data as a sign that the all-important consumer is losing steam, some are blaming November's figures on a calendar quirk — and keeping faith shoppers will continue to open up their wallets…"We expect a modest rebound to spending in December," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., wrote in a research note.
Forbes, U.S., China Reach Initial Trade Deal, But Is It As ‘Amazing’ As Trump Claims?, Sergei Klebnikov, 12/13/2019: The U.S. and China have finally agreed upon an initial trade deal in the 19-month-long trade war, resulting in a rollback of both existing and scheduled tariffs, officials from both sides said on Friday…“We don’t even have the agricultural numbers yet,” points out Joseph Brusuelas, RSM chief economist. “If we don’t get them by Monday, this deal could seem like an agreement just to agree, and the market will go down.”
USA Today, That 2020 recession you kept hearing about? Could we dodge it?, Paul Davidson, 12/13/2019: The threat of a recession in 2020 has hovered like a dark cloud most of this year. While the cloud still lingers, it has less become less ominous and may be receding further into the future…The presidential race is also generating a lack of clarity on tax and other policies that will dampen business spending, says RSM economist Joe Brusuelas.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Trade truce with China caps good week in Washington for Trump's economy, Tory Newmyer, 12/13/2019: President Trump declared a trade truce with the Chinese, just days before the hammer blow of new tariffs on consumer goods is set to fall — and two months after he first trumpeted a major breakthrough with Beijing…And RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas:
So what kind of trade deal? Is it a cease fire with Chinese ag purchases. If so how much? Are both sides rolling back tariffs and by how much? Is IP protection involved?
Xinhuanet, Spotlight: U.S. Fed holds rates steady, signals no changes through 2020, 12/12/2019: The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged and signaled that it would keep rates on hold through 2020…"This reinforces our view that with the 2020 elections approaching, the Fed will keep interest rates on hold," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, an audit, tax and consulting firm. "In short, the Fed thinks it can err on the side of caution and has room to maneuver should the trade war intensify or if there is an exogenous shock to the economy," Brusuelas said, believing the Fed is unlikely to raise rates anytime soon.
CNN Business, Why the Fed is about to become a 'sideshow', Julia Horowitz, 12/11/2019: President Donald Trump wants the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates. That looks unlikely — at least for now…"This will essentially make the Fed a sideshow for the next few months as attention turns to policy risks around the trade conflict and the upcoming presidential election," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory and consulting firm RSM.
Associated Press, US jobs data to give clues to economy amid trade uncertainty, Christopher Rugaber, 12/06/2019: Friday’s November jobs report will provide insight into whether steady hiring remains a source of strength for the U.S. economy even as the Trump administration’s trade conflicts have heightened uncertainties for employers…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax advisory and consulting firm, notes that services companies have added 1.4 million jobs this year, compared with just 2,000 for manufacturing. Also picked up in The New York Times, Business Insider and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Yahoo! Finance, China says it will waive tariff hikes on U.S. soybeans, pork, 12/06/2019: China says it is willing to waive import tariffs for some soybeans and pork shipments from the U.S. as the two countries work to reach a phase one deal to end a trade war that has rattled global markets. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro and Brian Cheung as well as RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas discuss. NOTE: Additional video clips from the “On the Move” segment featuring Joe can be found here: Clip 1, Clip 2, Clip 3.
The Hill, Economy adds 266K jobs in November, blowing past expectations, Sylvan Lane, 12/06/2019: The U.S. added 266,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported Friday, blowing past expectations as the American economy continues to push through a global slump…"This is an excellent jobs report late in the business cycle and something of an early holiday gift for the economy and investors," wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, in a Friday research note.
The Wall Street Journal, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz to Step Down at End of Term, Kim Mackrael, 12/06/2019: Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said Friday he will step down from his position when his term expires next June, after overseeing an economy sideswiped by a commodity-price downturn and weakened by trade uncertainty fueled by the Trump administration…“Mr. Poloz really outperformed expectations during his tenure,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM LLP.
TD Ameritrade Network, Joe Brusuelas’ Jobs Report Preview, 12/05/2019: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM…We got in some nice jobless claims today. We’re eager for tomorrow’s numbers. ADP a little weaker. What do you make of the whole picture so far? What you’re going to see is a reflection of sort of the unbalanced economy here in the United States.
MarketWatch, Friday’s jobs report may reveal a snapback in job creation in November — but there are a few worrying signs, Jeffry Bartash, 12/05/2019: Hiring in the U.S. has undoubtedly slowed, but it hasn’t slowed to a crawl…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM, points out that the service sector has generated 1.39 million new jobs this year, compared with only 2,000 for manufacturing.
Axios, 1 big thing: The end of Trump's manufacturing renaissance, 12/04/2019: The manufacturing industry got a huge boost from President Trump's election, seeing a groundswell of job gains during his first year in office. But the trade war with China has undone that progress: Jobs in the sector have stalled out and turned negative in 2019…What's next: Things will likely get worse before they get better, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and consulting firm RSM, tells Axios. More companies are starting to face higher costs from tariffs, and those that have already been affected are starting to cut back hours and lay off workers to compensate for their losses.
Benzinga, UCLA Anderson Forecast Upgrades Outlook for the Nation as Financial Conditions Improve, 12/04/2019: Citing "improved financial conditions, a better housing and employment outlook, some relaxation of trade tensions and a modest improvement in business fixed investment," the UCLA Anderson Forecast has upgraded its national economic forecast through 2020…In addition to presentations of the U.S. and California forecasts, the December 2019 Forecast Conference, sponsored by RSM US LLP, features several panels and a keynote address by Vijan Srinivasan ('01), chief investment officer of Scarsdale Capital LLC. The panel, moderated by David Shulman, will look at the volatility of financial markets and features: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US LLP.
Bankrate, Survey: Recession odds diminishing for U.S. economy, but watch for a slowdown, Sarah Foster, 12/04/2019: The nation’s top economists say a recession within the next year isn’t probable, but that doesn’t mean the U.S. economy will be worth bragging about. Experts polled for Bankrate’s Fourth-Quarter Economic Indicator survey estimate a 35 percent chance that the U.S. economy will enter a downturn between now and the November 2020 elections. That’s down from 41 percent during the prior quarter’s survey, showing that experts are more optimistic about the future…Responding were:… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist, RSM.
Trade Only Today, Steady as She Goes, Jack Atzinger, 11/30/2019: A key measure of American consumer confidence fell slightly in October, but the economy created 128,000 jobs during the month, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year in an effort to keep the economy growing…“For now, we can take solace that there are sufficient job and wage gains to support the economy and keep it miles away from any recession,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM, told The Washington Post.
Middle Market Growth, Looking to 2020: Consumer Is King Amid Slowing Growth, Joseph Brusuelas, 11/27/2019: The American economy will continue to slow toward a growth rate of 1.5% in 2020, below its long-term average of 1.8%, as sturdy consumer spending compensates for financial volatility and erratic trade policy. That consumption, though, increasingly depends on rising asset prices that help boost confidence, and solid job growth. As long as consumers, particularly those with higher incomes, stay confident, the domestic economy should continue to show modest, if unspectacular, growth in 2020.
POLITICO, Impeachment react in markets?, Ben White, 11/21/2019: The Dow Jones took a bit of a dip as President Donald Trump’s top Europe envoy Gordon Sondland told House impeachment investigators that there was clearly a quid pro quo between Ukraine aid and an investigation into Joe Biden and his family. Some traders and money managers lit up MM’s email box to suggest this was the first significant market reaction to impeachment. RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas: “Are you watching the inter day movement? Bond yields holding up but equity market turned over at 12:47 PM. Looks like first signs of impeachment impacting financial markets.
Cheddar, Home Depot, Kohl's Earnings Cast Doubt Into Health of Consumer, 11/19/2019: With us now, Joe Brusuelas who is the RSM Chief Economist…Is policy the biggest threat to GDP growth right now? Yes, specifically trade policy. If there’s an escalation of the trade-war with China and we enter a second front with Europeans, specifically on imports of European autos, should the trade war open that second front, you and I are going to have a very different discussion about the direction of GDP and risks around the outlook, specifically regarding recession.
AIRA Journal, Is the business cycle nearing an end?, Joseph Brusuelas – RSM US LLP, 11/15/2019: The U.S. economy is signaling that the decade-long business cycle upswing following the global financial crisis and the Great Recession is nearing – or might have already reached – its apogee. This should be recognized as neither unexpected, given the length of the recovery, nor a surprising development, given the proliferation of risks to the outlook. Even so, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to have shifted the focus of policy from responding to a growing economy (and the effects of unconstrained fiscal policy) to responding to spillovers from a global economic slowdown that is largely related to trade policy.
Bloomberg, OSC Media Advisory - Dialogue 2019: Regulation for Confidence and Growth, 11/13/2019: The Ontario Securities Commission's (OSC) annual conference, OSC Dialogue takes place on Thursday, November 21, 2019, at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre (South Building). The registration desk will open at 7:45 a.m…9:30 a.m. Uncovering opportunity amid uncertainty Panel… Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.
Benzinga, OSC Media Advisory - Dialogue 2019: Regulation for Confidence and Growth, 11/13/2019: The Ontario Securities Commission's (OSC) annual conference, OSC Dialogue takes place on Thursday, November 21, 2019, at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre (South Building). The registration desk will open at 7:45 a.m…Uncovering opportunity amid uncertainty Panel: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.
Marketplace, The big problem for small business? Finding qualified people to hire, Sabri Ben-Achour, 11/12/2019: The NFIB says small businesses are paying for higher compensation with higher sales and savings. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with consulting firm RSM, isn’t sure this is sustainable. “They’re willing to offer more compensation, but at the end of the day, they’re likely not to because of a slowing economy, and a contraction in positive earnings trends.”
Yahoo! Finance, The unemployment rate for recent college graduates is getting even worse, Aarthi Swaminathan, 11/10/2019: New data from the New York Fed highlights how the job situation for recent graduates is worsening. While the rest of the labor market trends favorably, fresh graduates are more likely to be unemployed than the base U.S. working population…The reason for the red line “migrating upwards,” was due to a mismatch of skills, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “We’re late in the business cycle, so it's caught everyone's attention,” he explained.
Business Insider, We just got the latest sign of a downturn in US manufacturing — the opposite of what Trump’s trade wars were supposed to accomplish, Gina Heeb, 11/04/2019: New orders for American-made products and equipment investment slumped more than expected in September, offering the latest signs that trade tensions have added to troubles in the manufacturing sector…“The trade war and the uncertainty tax have caused a significant and large downward drag on overall domestic industrial activity,” said Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM.
The Hill, Resilient job market shields Trump from trade blowback, Sylvan Lane, 11/02/2019: …The October jobs report and the government’s third-quarter GDP estimate, both released this week, were far better than economists had forecast…“Right now, the economy is just slowing to its long-term trend,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an audit and consulting firm. “From a financial and economic point of view, that's fine. We have low unemployment, low inflation, and growth in line with trends.”
Nightly Business Report, U.S. Economic Forecast, 11/01/2019: Joining us on the show is Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM U.S., who brings us his analysis on the latest economic reports and what we can foresee with America’s economy.
Washington Post, U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October, despite the GM strike. The jobless rate ticked up to 3.6 percent, Eli Rosenberg, 11/01/2019: The United States added 128,000 jobs in October as the jobless rate ticked up to 3.6 percent, outperforming analyst forecasts during a month in which one of the largest private employer strikes in recent years weighed on the economy…“For now we can take solace that there are sufficient job and wage gains to support the economy and keep it miles away from any recession,” Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at the tax and consulting form RSM, said in an interview. Similar article also featured in Seeking Alpha, MarketWatch and Barron’s.
CNBC's Nightly Business Report, Nightly Business Report – October 31, 2019 (appearance begins ~7:50 mark), 10/31/2019: Inflation was muted last month as consumer prices measured by the personal consumption expenditures index or PCE were unchanged. The PCE is the Federal Reserve`s preferred measure of inflation. But the weight on stocks, manufacturing, as the Chicago PMI which measures manufacturing activity in the Midwest dropped to its lowest level since December of 2015. So let`s turn now to Joe Brusuelas to talk more about what all this means for the overall economy. He is the chief economist at RSM US.
Marketplace, Jobs report preview: Behold, the GM effect, Mitchell Hartman, 10/31/2019: …We’ve been adding about 150,000 jobs a month since July, but for October, says Joseph Brusuelas at RSM, “We’re going to have a pretty bad number.”…Brusuelas predicts by early 2020 employers will be adding about 100,000 jobs a month. “That’s what you call the breakeven number. The minimum necessary to meet new people entering the workforce and to keep the unemployment rate stable.”
POLITICO, Spooky numbers inside GDP, Ben White, 10/31/2019: The first read on third quarter growth came in better than expected at 1.9% but that number is still well short of White House predictions for the year…The consumer and residential spending drove the gains, perhaps suggesting the Fed’s cuts are having some positive impact. But beyond that, things look pretty grim. Per RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Gross private investment declined by 1.5%, the second straight quarter of contraction. Fixed investment declined 1.3%, and outlays on nonresidential investment fell 3%. Inside the residential category, outlays on structures dropped a whopping 15.3%”.
The Wall Street Journal, Newsletter: GDP Grows but Slows, Jeffrey Sparshott, 10/30/2019: The Federal Reserve gets one final sweeping view of the economy before its interest-rate decision this afternoon. U.S. economic growth settled in at a lower gear in the third quarter, with growth in consumer spending and housing investment offsetting a drop in business investment…“Any way one slices this data set one thing is clear: The U.S consumer is keeping the economy from sliding towards stall speed,” says RSM US chief economist Joseph Brusuelas.
CNN Business, The Fed's long game is anyone's guess, Julia Horowitz, 10/30/2019: Markets think it's a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will announce a quarter point interest rate cut on Wednesday. The big question for traders, then, is what comes after…"This may prove a disappointment for investors looking for the all-clear signal," Joe Brusuelas, chief RSM economist, said in a recent note to clients.
Washington Post, U.S. slowdown deepens as economic growth slips to 1.9 percent pace in third quarter, Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam, 10/30/2019: The U.S. economy cooled over the summer, growing at a 1.9 percent annualized pace from July through September, the latest sign that the slowdown is deepening…“An economy growing at 1.9 percent is in line with the long-term trend growth of the United States. If you’re an economist or Wall Streeter, you are fine with that. However, if you are a politician that promised sustained growth over 3 percent, this level of growth is a political recession," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM.
POLITICO, Morning Money, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 10/29/2019: …And the jobs report out Friday is expected to be weak, albeit impact by a one-time hit from the GM strike. Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM, in a client note: “We expect the U.S. employment report to show a net increase of 75,000 in total employment, well below the three-month average of 157,000, with the risk of a much slower change in total employment for the month.”
BNN Bloomberg, Canada's next government poised to face slowing global growth, 10/15/2019: We're less than a week from the federal election, but whoever forms government will be staring down some potentially daunting economic headwinds as global growth concerns mount. For perspective on this, BNN Bloomberg spoke with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Yahoo! Finance, U.S. blacklists more Chinese companies, 10/08/2019: The U.S. adds 28 Chinese entities to an export blacklist. Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro, Rick Newman, Joe Brusuelas - RSM Chief Economist and Robert Delaney South China Morning Post U.S. Bureau Chief discuss.
CNBC, How it's becoming harder to make the bull case long-term for the markets and economy, 10/07/2019: ...And Joe Brusuelas of RSM weigh in on estimates for corporate earnings being cut due to concerns over trade, and the supply shocks impacting the US labor market.
TD Ameritrade Network, What Today’s Job Number Means for the Economy, 10/04/2019: …And Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, who’s on with us often…The trade tensions have clearly spilled over in the real economy. We’ve seen a multi-month slowing and hiring.
The Wall Street Journal, Hiring Growth Expected to Continue Slowing—Analyst, Amrith Ramkumar, 10/04/2019: Some analysts still expect the pace of hiring to continue slowing, setting the stage for more interest-rate cuts in the weeks ahead. "Given the recent readings of the manufacturing sector, which is in recession, and a service sector that has slowed noticeably, forward-looking investors, firm managers and policymakers should anticipate a march down towards 100,000 per month by the end of the year, which is what is necessary to stabilize the unemployment rate," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, says in a note.
Benzinga, US Unemployment Rate Hits Lowest Level In 50 Years Amid Mixed September Jobs Report, Wayne Duggan, 10/04/2019: The Bureau of Labor Statistics released employment data for the month of September, and the jobs report came in below expectations. Here’s a rundown of everything you need to know…Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP, said the September jobs report is yet another indication that the U.S. economy is slowing.
The Washington Post, The U.S. economy is cooling, but it’s not collapsing, Heather Long, 10/04/2019: By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is slowing down, but it isn’t collapsing…“A 2 percent economy is fine for economists, but that is a presidential recession,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM.
Business Insider, US adds fewer jobs than expected in September, unemployment hits 50-year low, Gina Heeb, 10/04/2019: Government data out Friday showed that hiring cooled but held up at a solid pace in September, offering a snapshot of the American economy during a period marked by heightened uncertainty and concerns about a potential slowdown…"The uncertainty linked to the direction of trade policy may exact a larger price on hiring across goods producing and manufacturing jobs," said Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM, a financial-consulting firm.
Middle Market Growth, Economic Growth is Running Out of Steam, RSM Data Shows, Joseph Brusuelas, 09/27/2019: The U.S. economy likely grew at a 2.0% yearly rate in July and August, a drop from the 2.3% yearly rate of U.S. real GDP growth in the first quarter, according to the RSM US Real GDP Index (see chart below). (The index is based on a subset of indicators used by the National Bureau of Economic Research.) So far the domestic economy has absorbed two policy-induced shocks—a trade war with China and the slowing of immigration—and one exogenous oil supply shock, all contributing to the story of slower growth. Once the economy slows to near 1% next year, recession risks will become elevated.
Axios, The divided Fed is losing investors' faith, Dion Rabouin, 09/19/2019: The Fed is doing its best to prop up the U.S. economy in the face of possible economic turbulence, but it's beginning to look like a rudderless ship and it's fast losing the confidence of investors. The Fed's rate-setting committee cut U.S. interest rates 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but did so with 3 dissenting votes for the first time since 2016…"[T]he internal inconsistency ... is a reflection of the current divisions within the Fed," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
CBS News, Wall Street sees profits in a heating planet, Irina Ivanova, 09/19/2019: Ahead of the United Nations climate summit starting Monday, many companies are touting their own contributions to confronting global warming and emphasizing the investment benefits of clean energy. But climate-change investing doesn't only mean investing in technologies to avoid warming…"Essentially, when you're talking climate change, you're talking everything. It's going to disrupt where we live and where we produce and how we eat," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the corporate auditing and accounting firm RSM.
Financial Times, Federal Reserve rate cut lifts stocks — as it happened, Peter Wells and Matthew Rocco, 09/18/2019: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, as expected, for the second time this year but policymakers disagreed about the pace of economic growth…President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve in the wake of the recent attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities, once again calling on the central bank to cut rates. The attack, which caused prices to spike as much as 20 per cent Monday, along with soft manufacturing data “will present Chairman Jerome Powell the opportunity to instill some discipline through the statement and the summary of economic projections to his divided committee”, according to Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Politico, Economic risks rise, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 09/17/2019: President Trump heads to California for fundraisers … Fed begins its two-day policy meeting … Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. expected to rise 0.2 percent. Fed on deck —RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The fissures within the Fed will be vividly on display inside its policy statement due to the expected hawkish dissents … Those fissures are the major reason we do not expect to see any material change in the summary of economic projections on growth or inflation, and no indication of further rate cuts this year.”
NPR, Tepid U.S. Jobs Report Adds To Economic Jitters, Scott Horsley, 09/06/2019: U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in August, according to a monthly snapshot from the Labor Department, signaling a slowdown in the pace of job growth…"Household consumption right now is propping up the U.S. economy," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the audit and consulting firm RSM. "We'll see if the uncertainty tax that's been placed on the economy by trade policy begins to adversely influence consumer attitudes."
Yahoo! Finance, UPS to hire 100,000 workers this holiday season and pay $14 to $30 an hour, 09/06/2019: …Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, says “It’s encouraging that we are going to see a boost in temporary hiring around transportation sector which has slowed noticeably in the past six months.”
Yahoo! Finance, WH Economic Adviser: There is a lot to celebrate in the jobs report, 09/06/2019: The acting chairman of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Tomas Philipson joins Yahoo Finance's Julie Hyman, Adam Shapiro, Sibile Marcellus and RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas to talk about the August jobs report.
The Wall Street Journal, Newsletter Special Edition: A Mixed Jobs Report, Jeffrey Sparshott, 09/06/2019: U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs and unemployment showed signs of stabilizing at historically low levels in August…The sum of all hours worked by all employees across the economy is rising but at a decelerating pace. Aggregate hours are a key gauge of the overall labor market and hint at the future consumer behavior. "If investors observe a reduction in hours worked over a sustained period, alarm bells should go off with respect to the direction of hiring and household spending," RSM US's Joseph Brusuelas says. Similar articles also featured in Business Insider, The Hill, Bankrate and ABC News.
CNBC, Brusuelas: Trade-war effects are now spilling over into the US economy, 09/05/2019: Joe Brusuelas of RSM discusses the impact major global risks, such as the U.S.-China trade war and Brexit, are having on the U.S. and other world economies. Also picked up in U.S. News & World Report.
TD Ameritrade Network, Jim Cahn And Joe Brusuelas On Expectations Ahead Of Friday's Jobs Report, 09/05/2019: Let’s start off with you Joe. How are you feeling about what you saw with today’s ADP 195,000? Well it’s encouraging but when you get late in the business cycle, late in the year, you sort of take ADP’s first estimate with a grain of salt. They’re much better on the final estimate.
USA Today, Workers are putting in fewer hours. Is that a sign a recession is coming?, Paul Davidson, 09/05/2019: Americans are working fewer hours, and that could be a worrisome sign for hiring and the economy…“I would make a case that a decline in hours worked is a precursor to a much broader slowdown in overall hiring,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist of consulting firm RSM.
Seeking Alpha, August ISM indicates manufacturing recession, but not U.S. PMI, Liz Kiesche, 09/03/2019: The August ISM manufacturing index, at 49.1, unexpectedly shrank for the first time in three years. The consensus estimate was 51.3. "It's important to note that a reading below 50 constitutes a manufacturing recession," writes RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Bruseulas on Twitter. "A national recession requires a reading at or below 43.1."
Yahoo! Finance, Fresh college graduates face a 'concerning' labor trend, Aarthi Swaminathan, 08/28/2019: New data from the New York Fed reveals that the unemployment rate for recent graduates actually rose in the second quarter of 2019…Noting that the data is not seasonally adjusted, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said that “hiring has slowed noticeably over the past year, and through the end of July… [and] in terms of recent graduates, there’s a slower pace of hiring out of the gate.” Also picked up in the Huffington Post.
The Hill, Fed chairman takes swipe at Trump's trade war, Sylvan Lane, 08/23/2019: President Trump’s feud with Jerome Powell reached new heights Friday as the Federal Reserve chairman delivered his most explicit rebuttal to the president after sustaining more than a year's worth of public attacks…“The Federal Reserve is not equipped to fight President Trump’s trade war,” said Joe Brusuelas.
The Wall Street Journal, Stumbling Global Economies Fan Recession Fears, Josh Mitchell and Jason Douglas, 08/22/2019: Manufacturing activity is falling in most of the world’s advanced economies, another sign that a deepening global slowdown is weighing on the U.S. expansion…“It’s a reflection of growing global pessimism among purchasing managers,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US, a consulting firm. He said their darkening mood “is clearly associated” with the trade dispute between U.S. and China. “Further escalation of the trade war risks spillover in the service and household sectors, which could signal a much larger risk of recession in 2020,” he added.
TD Ameritrade, Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts in 2019, 08/20/2019: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP. Joe Brusuelas Discusses Impact Of Lower Rates On The Housing Sector.
CNN Business, Who do you believe? The American consumer or the bond market?, Julia Horowitz, 08/16/2019: Talk about whiplash. Stocks ended in positive territory on Thursday — but for investors, it's clearly getting harder to separate the signal from the noise…RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas says industrial production served as a wakeup call "just as one got that warm fuzzy feeling from retail sales." He predicts the US manufacturing sector is either entering a recession — or it's already in one.
POLITICO, The big recession problem, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 08/16/2019: …THE TWO ECONOMIES — RSM Joe Brusuelas: “A robust consumer, driven by strong real compensation in the first quarter of the year, continued to prop up the American economy, even as the domestic manufacturing sector contracted by 0.5% on a year-ago basis. … [W]e are keeping our 1.5% forecast for current quarter GDP.”
Associated Press, Weak global growth likely to mean US slowdown, not recession, Christopher Rugaber, Josh Boak and Bani Sppra, 08/15/2019: How fragile is the global economy?…American manufacturers appear to be either in a recession or on the verge of a downturn, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the consultancy RSM. The best possible boost for U.S. factories would be if Trump pulled back on trade hostilities with China and achieved a trade deal, Brusuelas said. Also picked up U.S. News & World Report and ABC News, among others.
CNN Business, What is the yield curve -- and why it matters, Paul R. La Monica, 08/15/2019: The bond market is flashing a big neon caution sign. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds dipped below the yield on the US 2-year bond Wednesday…"The business cycle has entered its final stages and recession risks are elevated," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM, in a report Wednesday. "In our estimation, there would need to be a clear signal of a permanent cessation of trade hostilities between Washington and Beijing to turn around risk and business sentiment," he added. Similar articles also featured in The Washington Post, Benzinga, Yahoo! Finance and Politico.
Nightly Business Report, Seniors & Rising Debt Levels, 08/14/2019: A new report shows older Americans owe a lot more money now than just a decade ago. Could that make retirement a predicament? Joining us to discuss this topic is Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US.
NPR.org, Dow Tumbles 800 Points As Bond Markets Signal Recession, 08/14/2019: Stocks plunged Wednesday on deepening worries over a slowdown in the global economy…I spoke to Joe Brusuelas. He’s the chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, and he said a lot rides on the U.S. and China quickly dialing back these disputes on trade. “Essentially, if the trade war is not rolled back in the near term, I think we’re going to have a very difficult 2020.”
Washington Post, Trump finally acknowledges his tariffs could hit consumers, Heather Long, 08/13/2019: President Donald Trump has repeated the same mantra for months: The Chinese are paying the full price of his tariffs. It's a line that the overwhelming majority of economists and business owners say is false, but Trump kept saying it - until Aug. 13…"We are all just one tweet away from significant volatility," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in a note to clients. "The idea that this is a major source of relief to the economy is not tethered to empirical reality."
Associated Press, A heightened US-China financial war imperils global economy, 08/06/2019: Just what the fragile global economy didn’t need: An unpredictable escalation in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, one that spreads the conflict to currency markets, threatens to involve other countries and raises the risk of a global recession…“We haven’t been on this terrain since the 1930s,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM. Also picked up in New York Times, Yahoo! Finance and ABC News, among other others.
Axios, The U.S.-China trade war could get much worse, Dion Rabouin, 08/06/2019: Stocks continued their sell-off overnight as fears of further escalation in the U.S.-China trade war were realized after markets closed on Monday…What they're saying: "These types of beggar-thy-neighbor policies were a hallmark of the Great Depression and caused a much larger economic downturn in its aftermath," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in the Los Angeles Times, MSN, Seeking Alpha, and Forbes, among others.
POLITICO, How to crush a market rally, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 08/02/2019: July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 165K down from 224K in June…RSM’s Joseph Brusuelas: “The U.S. economy likely generated roughly 150,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The July employment report—due to be released by the government Friday—is traditionally impacted by seasonal adjustments that will likely include sharp slowing in education and government hiring.
Yahoo! Finance, What's next for markets as the fed cuts rates for the first time since 2008, 08/01/2019: Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Andy Serwer, and Brian Cheung join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Center for Economic & Policy Research Dean Baker. NOTE: Other video clips from the hour-long “On the Move” segment featuring Joe can be found here: clip 1 and clip 2. Related article also featured here.
POLITICO, Fed delivers a hawkish cut, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 08/01/2019: Fed does a hawkish cut — The Fed delivered exactly the quarter point rate cut markets expected but Chair Jerome Powell’s description of the move as a “mid-cycle adjustment" disappointed Wall Street and sent stocks sharply lower. As predicted, it was not enough for President Trump, who applauded the end of quantitative tightening but wants more aggressive cuts. Powell appeared to dampen those hopes suggesting hikes could still come rather than more cuts. He also did not have the yield curve impact he wanted…RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Reductions or increases in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate are often like trying to kill a mosquito with an anvil; it may get the job done but the fallout is always widespread and sure to cause a commotion.”
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas Talks Fed Rate Cut Probabilities, 07/31/2019: Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Andy Serwer, and Brian Cheung join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Center for Economic & Policy Research Dean Baker.
CNBC, Brusuelas: we're setting ourselves up to win, 07/31/2019: Joe Brusuelas, RSM US Chief Economist, talks about what to expect from the Fed, anticipated market reaction, and more.
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe, RSM's Brusuelas: Global manufacturing sector has fallen into recession, 07/30/2019: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said that the domestic economy is far from falling into a recession, but he noted that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is nearing a recession and manufacturing globally is already there. 'It seems silly to me,' Bruselas said, 'to think that what is happening in the global economy won't happen in the United States,' which is why expects extended Fed rate cuts to help stave off sowing global conditions through at least the end of next year.
Investing.com, Gold Stages 11th-Hour Rally Before Highly-Anticipated Rate Cut, Barani Krishnan, 07/30/2019: The gold rush ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut is ringing the tills at the 11th hour for bugs of the yellow metal…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, said in a morning note the Fed vote on rates could yield surprises. “Given the sharp differences of opinion among committee members on the efficacy of a rate cut now as opposed to reserving as much monetary firepower as possible for when the current business cycle ends, there will likely be at least one dissenting voice," Brusuelas said. Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Finance, Benzinga and Seeking Alpha.
POLITICO, The Fed’s real message: Save the economy from Trump, Ben White and Victoria Guida, 07/30/2019: In the case of Donald Trump vs. the U.S. Federal Reserve, the president of the United States is likely to secure a winning verdict this week…“Trump’s trade policies are starting to show up in corporate balance sheets,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “In the third quarter you’d expect to see profit-margin compression across a wider array of earnings reports and the consumer will feel it, which could cause a pullback in consumption. That’s where the problem is for the White House.”
Canadian Accountant, Economy slowing, digital rising, says accounting firm RSM Canada, 07/30/2019: The Canadian economy will slow in the remainder of 2019 and throughout 2020 as the economies of Canada’s global trading partners slows as well…“The numbers show that Canada’s relative openness to immigration is a clear benefit for many middle market businesses,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist, RSM US LLP. “As the digital economy grows, it brings in the right skillsets to help bridge the widening skills gap, but it will also support Canada’s plans for economic growth, where a broad spectrum of diversity and perspectives will develop the country into a major tech and industry player.” Similar article also featured in BOE Report and ABL Advisor.
Marketplace, Global slowdown could hold back U.S. economy, Mitchell Hartman, 07/29/2019: The U.S. economy has already been slowing down this year, without any help from the rest of the planet, thanks in part to the fading effects of the 2017 tax cuts. Now, says economist Joe Brusuelas at RSM consulting, the Trump administration’s escalating tariffs on imports, and other countries’ retaliatory tariffs on our exports, have exposed U.S. farmers and manufacturers to increased economic risk. “That uncertainty tax caused by trade policy and those tariffs caused business fixed investment to contract by 5.5 percent in the second quarter.”
The New York Times, U.S. Economy Grew at 2.1% Rate in 2nd Quarter, G.D.P. Report Says, Ben Casselman, 07/26/2019: Economic growth slowed last spring, but don’t panic: The decade-long expansion has lost some momentum, but there’s little reason to think it is about to stall out…“Obviously, the headwinds are increasing,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a financial consulting firm. Europe is close to a recession or perhaps already in one. A trade deal with China looks to be months away at best. A flare-up in the trade war could be enough to cause a recession, he said. Similar articles also featured in The Wall Street Journal, NBC News, POLITICO, CNBC.com, also here and here), Los Angeles Times, Axios, Reuters and Financial Post, among others.
Wealth Professional, Slowing global economy sets the stage for weaker investment climate – report, Duffie Osental, 07/25/2019: Apprehensions over “endless” trade negotiations and a slowing global economy are factors contributing to a less-accommodative investment climate, according to RSM’s “The Real Economy: Canada” report…“The numbers show that Canada’s relative openness to immigration is a clear benefit for many middle market businesses,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: The tech job slowdown, Steve LeVine, 07/24/2019: While U.S. companies continue to vigorously seek new workers, growth in openings for some hard-core digital jobs — projected to be among the most prominent work in the future economy — have sharply slowed, according to a new report…What's next: What no one disputes is that most people are going to have to undergo fundamental reskilling in order to keep up with the massive changes under way. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tells Axios that companies are rapidly forming in-house reskilling programs, creating "a whole cottage industry coming up to reskill workers."
Consultancy.uk, RSM argues No Deal Brexit a chance for tax cuts, 07/24/2019: With a dreaded No Deal Brexit once again accumulating headlines across the British press, the UK could be in line to endure a recession in or out of the EU. However, according to consultants from RSM, a No Deal would also present a major opportunity for Britain’s largest companies to lobby for tax cuts…As reported by Business Leader, the Beyond Brexit event saw RSM’s US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and the firm’s Brexit lead Partner Simon Hart set out the possible consequences of a No Deal hard Brexit, which could see GDP fall, inflation jump and wage growth slow, leading to a drop in overall living standards. When asked what policy response would be required in the event of a No Deal, Brusuelas said interest rates would need to “go down to zero”, while the Bank of England will have to “act boldly and aggressively” to maintain this for a sustained period.
Seeking Alpha, Global business sentiment tilts to pessimistic, Liz Kiesche, 07/24/2019: Global business sentiment slips to below 100 in OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) economies, implying a pessimistic view of growth, points out RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas. The measure is a leading indicator of U.S. manufacturing sales, he adds.
Zacks, American Consumers & Factories Strengthen Q2 View: 5 Gainers, Tirthankar Chakraborty, 07/17/2019: Retail Sales Pop in June. Consumer spending generally fuels more than two-thirds of economic output…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, pointed out that strong spending at restaurants and online shows consumers’ financial stability to tackle economic uncertainties from overseas. He added that “consumers have a fairly bright outlook at this point, just based on job gains and wage gains.” Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
The Wall Street Journal, Outlook for Second-Quarter Growth Firms as Americans Shop, Factories Perk Up, Sarah Chaney and Harriet Torry, 07/16/2019: American shoppers increased their spending in June and factories picked up production, adding to evidence the U.S. economy is wrapping up a solid second quarter despite challenges from abroad… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said strong spending at restaurants and online shows consumers should help buffer against economic uncertainty from overseas.
Bisnow, In The Corporate Relocation Hunger Games, Texas Is No Longer No. 1, Kerri Panchuk, 07/14/2019: Virginia edged out Texas as the nation's top state for business in CNBC's 2019 annual report… Rising property taxes, labor shortages, educational issues and infrastructure woes are hitting Texas, RSM U.S. LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said.
Axios, Millennials are relandscaping the housing market, Marisa Fernandez, 07/13/2019: Rising home prices, falling savings rates, record debt levels and strict lending practices have contributed to pushing homeownership farther out of reach for aspiring young buyers…What it means: Millennials have changed "the composition of housing starts and the housing market, resulting in the construction of more multifamily dwellings (apartments) than in past cyclical expansions," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, tells Axios.
CNBC, Countdown to Jobs, 07/05/2019: …Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist, discuss today's jobs numbers and other economic indicators.
The Wall Street Journal, What the June Jobs Report Tells Us About the U.S. Economy, Eric Morath and Sarah Chaney, 07/05/2019: Friday’s jobs report holds critical clues to the durability of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history…The three-month average annualized pace has been even slower at 2.73%, according to RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas. “It’s likely that wage growth has peaked in the current business cycle,” he wrote in a recent note to clients.
Investing.com, U.S. Jobs Report Lowers Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts, 07/05/2019: The U.S. employment report for June gave a mostly positive reading, reducing market conviction that the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates by a full half-point when it meets at the end of the month…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, said he still expected a 25 basis-point cut in July but argued that a half-point cut was "now off the table”.
POLITICO, Morning Money, BEN WHITE and AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER, 07/03/2019: JOBS DAY PREVIEW — We’re dark on Friday for the June jobs report so an early preview. RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect the labor market will reflect a slower pace of growth through the second quarter, resulting in a below-consensus estimate (165,000) net increase in total employment of 147,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.7%.
BBC, Good Morning Scotland, 06/26/2019: World leaders are heading to Japan for the 2019 G20 summit due to take place this weekend. The main focus is talks between the U.S. and China with the big question being whether this is just the start of a trade war or the beginning of the end of one… But first, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US…Joe agrees the current focus is on the U.S. and China. Listen to the full segment (starts at 1:48:48 mark).
Yahoo! Finance, Stocks extend gains after record trading season, 06/21/2019: Stocks rallied this week after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a rate cut for the future. The Dow posted its best start to June since 1940. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Brian Cheung, and Pras Subramanian to discuss. Similar article also featured here and here.
Associated Press, Q&A: Stocks soar while bonds are signaling gloom. What's up?, Christopher Rugaber and Stan Choe, 06/21/2019: Why is the stock market so happy and the bond market so gloomy?... “They’re getting the cuts,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, referring to stock market investors who bid up shares on anticipation of the Fed slicing rates. “The U.S. domestic economy is decelerating at an accelerating pace.” Also picked up in CBS News and ABC News, among others.
Bloomberg, Summer Driving Gets More Costly as East Coast Refinery Burns, David Marino and Barbara J Powell, 06/21/18: Gasoline futures jumped the most in more than three months after an explosion and fire at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions oil refinery, the largest on the U.S. East Coast and a key supplier to the New York gasoline market…“Any shortage ahead of the peak of the summer driving season does not bode well for U.S. consumer pocketbooks,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said on Twitter.Also picked up in TIME.
CNBC, The Trump economy is starting to look more and more like the Obama economy, Jeff Cox, 06/20/2019: In some key ways, the Donald Trump economy, on fire last year but slowing this year, is starting to resemble the one he inherited from his predecessor…“What you’re seeing is a reassertion of secular stagnation following the one-time sugar-high associated with the tax cut,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, citing a term describing the current state of U.S. growth espoused by former Obama advisor Larry Summers and others.
The Wall Street Journal, Stocks Edge Up as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Jessica Menton, 06/19/2019: U.S. stocks ticked higher and bond yields slid after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but hinted that it could cut interest rates in the months ahead…"Monetary policy is too tight, given the deceleration in the domestic economy, low inflation, contraction in global manufacturing in train and rising policy risks associated with the trade war that looks to spill over into financial markets," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a note Wednesday.
Washington Post, The Finance 202: Trump is bullying Powell to lower interest rates. It might have the reverse effect, Tory Newmyer, 06/19/2019: As the Fed kicked off two days of meetings Tuesday to consider whether to cut interest rates, Bloomberg News reported that as recently as February, the White House explored the possibility of demoting Powell from his chairmanship…Those considerations could all be moot, if Trump’s threats amount to bluster — a likelihood, according to Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM. “The White House’s barometer on the economy is the stock market, and, increasingly, the bond market, which would have a negative reaction on even an approach to remove Powell,” he tells me. “So my sense is that’s over.”
CBS News, Fed wary of economic clouds, but leaves interest rates unchanged for now, Irina Ivanova, 06/19/18: The Federal Reserve is holding its benchmark interest rate steady, although policymakers indicate a willingness to loosen the monetary reins if U.S. economic growth sags… "It is clear that any notion of policy normalization has ended and the central bank is setting up to lower rates this year," Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM, said in a note.
POLITICO, Morning Money, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 06/17/18: …FED PREP — RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The Federal Reserve is on the precipice of a major shift in policy as the economy, hiring and wages slow amid a backdrop of muted inflation.”
Axios, Relying on the Fed posse, Steve LeVine, 06/08/2019: The long jobs boom, a pillar of confidence in the U.S. economy, has hit what economists say is a self-inflicted hiccup: President's Trump's multiple trade wars…"There is significant and growing risk a recession will start in the second half of 2020 just in time for the election," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "One should anticipate a new White House offensive against the Fed to be imminent."
Yahoo! Finance, What the weak jobs report says about the state of the economy, 06/07/2019: The unemployment rate remained the same at 3.6% while jobs report posted disappointing numbers…Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist: What the Fed has are economic fundamentals that are deteriorating hat complement the decline in financial conditions. (See link for full clip.)
The Wall Street Journal, Hiring Slowed Dramatically in May, 06/07/2019: Employers added just 75 thousand jobs last month, a lot fewer than expected. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSMUS LLP, says it's a reflection of the global economic slowdown taking place and talks about what it means for Fed policy.
Associated Press, Why Trump’s trade wars are pressuring both economy and Fed, Chris Rugaber, 06/07/2019: A sharp pullback in U.S. hiring for May intensified fears that the economy has weakened and that many employers have grown nervous, in part from President Donald Trump’s escalating trade wars…A rate cut “is a bit of insurance in case the economy deteriorates more quickly,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.
Marketplace, Slowdown in employment is broad-based, Mitchell Hartman, 06/07/2019: The May jobs report from the Labor Department was a disappointment across a number of measures: Employers added 75,000 jobs, about 100,000 below the consensus estimate…But it’s pretty clear from survey data and interviews with business leaders and private-sector economists that some of the pullback in employment over the past several months is due to fear and uncertainty about U.S. trade policy. And there has been measurable weakness in goods-producing business activity (i.e., orders) and employment. It’s what economist Joseph Brusuelas at RSM calls an “uncertainty tax” on businesses.
The Wall Street Journal, Analyst: June Rate Cut a Possibility, Amrith Ramkumar, 06/07/2019: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, says in a note that a rate cut at the Fed's meeting later this month could now be in play. "Once one lifts up the hood on this clunker of a jobs report, the data is even bleaker as the softness that has defined employment in manufacturing has spilled over into the service sector," Mr. Brusuelas writes.
The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics: Employers Tap the Brakes, Jeffrey Sparshott, 06/07/2019: The May employment report wasn't pretty. The U.S. added just 75,000 jobs and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 75,000…What Economists Are Saying: …"Once one lifts up the hood on this clunker of a jobs report, the data is even bleaker as the softness that has defined employment in manufacturing has spilled over into the service sector." —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US LLP.
Investing.com, U.S. Jobs Report Cements Conviction on Fed Rate Cuts, 06/07/2019: The U.S. employment report for May further strengthened markets' conviction that the Federal Reserve will pull an about face and begin easing monetary policy…“The Federal Reserve now has a domestic economic component to add to its decision matrix around the path of rate policy to what is a narrative around deteriorating global economic and financial conditions, an inverted yield curve and falling yields,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting agency RSM US LLP.
Business Insider, US economy adds far fewer jobs than expected in May, Gina Heeb, 06/07/2019: In the latest snapshot of the American economy, the official employment report out Friday showed that hiring slowed sharply in May…"In our estimation the trade wars the United States finds itself ensnared in are going to cause hiring to slow as business sentiment eases, productivity-enhancing capital expenditures fall off, and the damage eventually spills over into the consumer sector," said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM.
CNBC, WRAPUP 1-Strong U.S. jobs growth expected in May, trade tensions a threat, Lucia Mutikani, 06/07/2019: U.S. job growth likely increased solidly in May, with wage gains expected to pick up, showing strength in the labor market before an escalation in trade tensions that analysts have cautioned could pressure an already slowing economy…“The trade wars the United States finds itself ensnared in are going to cause hiring to slow as business sentiment eases, productivity-enhancing capital expenditures fall off, and the damage eventually spills over into the consumer sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US in New York.
Bankrate, The Trump administration’s trade wars are whipping Fed policy back and forth, 06/07/2019: President Donald Trump’s trade wars just might prompt the Federal Reserve rate cut he’s been clamoring for — but for the wrong reasons…“The Trump administration is testing the Fed’s patience, without a doubt,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “We’re not quite to the point where the Fed is ready to engage in a regime change in terms of how it formulates policy and communicates to the market and the public, but the Fed is really stuck between a rock and a hard place.”
Marketplace, Layoff announcements on the rise, report says, Mitchell Hartman, 06/06/2019: …Among U.S. economic sectors, manufacturing is suffering the most and slowing down the fastest as a result of escalating trade wars with multiple trading partners, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “What we’re beginning to see is a slowdown in productivity-enhancing capital investment, which has spilled over into hiring in the manufacturing sector,” Brusuelas said.
The Fiscal Times, Trump’s Latest Mexico Tariffs Could Cost US Consumers $93 Billion, 05/31/2019: President Trump abruptly announced on Thursday new tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, which he said were intended to pressure the country to stop the flow of immigrants across the U.S. southern border…Taking back the tax cuts: Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tweeted, “Policy incoherence in action: Increasing taxes to 25% on all Mexican imports would yield $86.6 billion. That would offset more than half of the fading effects of the 2017 TCJA which was designed to boost productivity enhancing investment. Real economy will pay the price.”
Barron's, The Trade War Is Bad News for Small Business, Too, Al Root, 05/28/2019: Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial start of summer—and the start of U.S. driving season, when schools are out and families take some time off. We wanted to speak with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a small business accounting and consulting firm, about the impact gasoline prices have on U.S. consumer spending. But there was a bigger issue to discuss: trade. Brusuelas believed gasoline prices were headed higher after the U.S. yanked Iran import/export waivers at the end of April. But his thinking—about oil prices and economic growth—has changed because he believes the trade spat between the U.S. and China has morphed into a full blown trade war.
MarketWatch, 2-year, 10-year Treasury yields see steepest daily fall in nearly 5 months as trade-war fears spook, Sunny Oh, 05/23/2019: Treasury prices surged on Thursday, pushing yields sharply lower, as nervous investors face signs of global economic weakness and the possibility that U.S.-China trade tensions will last longer than anticipated…The 10-year Treasury yield’s slump on Thursday “reflects a shift in the baseline forecast of institutional investors and the real money crowd on global and domestic growth caused by what looks like an unavoidable escalation in the U.S.-China trade war. Investors are moving to not only reprice U.S. government securities, but values across asset classes based on expectations around margin compression and reduced multiplies,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM, in emailed comments.
Washington Post, China’s retaliation against new Trump tariffs will send U.S. hog farmers into a tailspin, Laura Reiley, 05/17/2019: Chinese buyers canceled a major order for American pork, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday, heightening fears that the U.S.-China trade dispute was set to inflict even more pain on American farmers who have taken a series of hits in Trump’s trade wars…Still, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, thinks pork is an important negotiating tool with China. “If the administration is serious about seeking a deal, that is clearly the path of least resistance,” he said. “Because of African swine fever and their own domestic situation, China doesn’t really have a choice and they will have to fulfill their needs by global supply.”
Associated Press, Escalating trade war causing anxiety in America’s heartland, Blake Nicholson, 05/14/2019: When President Donald Trump began talking about tariffs in 2017, Upper Midwest soybean farmer Jamie Beyer suspected that her crop could become a weapon. Two years later, she and her family are watching the commodity markets on an hourly basis as an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China creates turmoil in rural America…“The domestic stress caused by the administration’s trade policy is nowhere more evident than in the agricultural sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultant RSM. “Should the current policy pathway not be changed, the farm sector is going to experience the greatest downturn since the late 1980s, driven by widespread bankruptcies and consolidation.”
Axios, Soybean farmers dragged deeper into Trump’s trade war, Courtenay Brown, 05/14/2019: Soybean prices sunk to a 10-year low after the trade war escalated and left little hope that China — the world's biggest soybean importer —would resume buying U.S. soybeans…But Joe Brusuelas, an economist at consulting firm RSM U.S., warns "it may be difficult to repair damaged trade connections," causing prolonged pain beyond repair, as Brazil ups its soybean production thanks to more demand from China.
Bankrate, Here’s why low inflation has the Fed concerned right now, Sarah Foster, 05/07/2019: When the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision last week, it let you in on a vexing, unsolved mystery that’s been perplexing U.S. central bankers for the latter half of 10 years: With the best job market in decades, why isn’t there more inflation?... The Fed has historically modeled future inflation for policy using an economic model known as “the Phillips curve.” This theory suggests that the relationship between the unemployment rate and wage growth typically predicts inflation, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: The wages mystery, Steve LeVine, 05/03/2019: The U.S. economy is confounding: Three months from the longest expansion since such data began being tracked 170 years ago, the economy keeps pumping out strong job growth, and has now pushed down unemployment to a 50-year low…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM (whose numbers are behind the above chart), says that such low monthly jobless figures should deliver greater wage gains. "Nominal wage growth is modest at best compared to previous business cycles late in the expansion."
TD Ameritrade Network, What’s Next After Another Solid Jobs Report, 05/03/2019: ...Joe Brusuelas On The Impact Of The Jobs Report On The Fed's Current Course.
The Wall Street Journal, White House Escalates Feud With Fed, David Harrison and Michael C. Bender, 05/03/2019: Top White House and Federal Reserve officials squared off over interest rates Friday in a public clash over how to manage the economy at a time of strong growth and historically low unemployment…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said it was irresponsible for White House officials to lean on the Fed to cut rates. “Sentiments like that provide a clear and vivid illustration on how critical central bank independence is,” he said.
CBS News, Labor market still humming, as employers add 263,000 jobs, Irina Ivanova, 05/03/2019: Businesses hired 263,000 workers in April, again defying many economists' expectations that a tight labor market would slow job-creation. Economists were expecting about 190,000 jobs to be added for the month…"That does explain why, despite a very low unemployment rate and modest gains in overall growth, the American public remains dissatisfied with where the economy is and where the country is," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM. "That sluggish wage growth feeds into that."
MarketWatch, ‘Boom!’ Economists hail strong jobs report as jobless rate dips to Vietnam draft-era low, Robert Schroeder, 05/03/2019: Here’s what economists are saying about the April employment data, showing a stronger-than-expected 263,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.6%. U.S. stocks DJIA, +0.75% looked set for a stronger start…Joseph Brusuelas of RSM said there’s no case for the Federal Reserve to cut or increase interest rates following Friday’s report. He also called wages disappointing but began his tweets by saying “Boom!” and noting the strong headline number and drop in jobless rate.
Investing.com, Inflation-Free Jobs Surge in April Plays to Fed Narrative, 05/03/2019: The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in April while wage growth held steady, bolstering belief that the economy is still on an upward path without creating undue inflationary pressures…“Policy implications are that the market got out ahead of itself on pricing in a rate cut,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP.
Seeking Alpha, Fed: Economic growth stronger, inflation lower than was expected, 05/01/2019: "Economic growth and job creation have somewhat stronger than we expected," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says in his opening comments for the press conference. For March through December core inflation was at or close to 2%, and at March fell to about 1.6% inflation for the past 12 months…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, comments that his base case is for no policy move until 2021.
Business Insider, GDP growth smashed expectations at the beginning of 2019. But economists say the upswing probably won't last, Gina Heeb, 04/27/2019: Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced in the country, grew at a far faster pace than expected in the first quarter. But the broad reading may have masked pockets of weakness in the economy…"Put an asterisk next to it as the first quarter expansion was driven by unsustainable inventory accumulation, a temporary narrowing of the trade deficit and a one-time increase in government sponsored construction," said Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM, a financial-consulting company.
Associated Press, Outlook for the US economy and stock market brightens, Christopher Rugaber and Stan Choe, 04/26/2019: The worries that hung ominously over the U.S. economy early this year appear to have lifted. And that sunnier picture has helped bolster confidence in the stock market — driving the benchmark S&P 500 index to another record high Friday…“We know this is not going to be sustainable,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.
The Washington Post, U.S. economy feels like the 1990s, but with more inequality, less readiness for a downturn, Heather Long, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy expanded at a strong 3.2 percent annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019, the government reported Friday, blowing past expectations and prompting celebration among President Trump and his advisers…“Today’s economy is not anywhere close to the late 1990s,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM. “We are not seeing the increases in productivity and wages that we saw in that period when everyone called Alan Greenspan the ‘maestro.’ ”
The New York Times, Overcoming Doubts, U.S. Economy Finds a Way Forward, Ben Casselman and Jim Tankersley, 04/26/2019: Reports of the economic expansion’s death appear to have been greatly exaggerated…Economists, however, say that expansions do not die of old age — there has to be a cause. And while they expect growth to slow this year, they see few risks on the horizon that are large enough to tip the economy over the edge. “We had a near miss on a recession, but we didn’t have one last year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a financial consulting firm. “We won’t have one this year. I think this is a good place for the economy to be.”
The New York Times, U.S. Economy Grew at 3.2% Rate in First Quarter, Ben Casselman, 04/26/2019: Rumors of the economic expansion’s death appear to have been greatly exaggerated. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy, rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Friday…“We had a near miss on a recession, but we didn’t have one last year,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a financial consulting firm. “We won’t have one this year. I think this is a good place for the economy to be.”
Reuters, WRAPUP 1-Exports, inventories seen boosting U.S. first-quarter growth, Lucia Mutikani, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy likely maintained a moderate pace of growth in the first quarter, which could further dispel earlier fears of a recession even though activity was driven by temporary factors…“The composition of the data will not look favorably on domestic economic activity, nor provide a positive forward look at current quarter activity,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Policymakers will likely look past this growth report when formulating rate policy."
CNN Business, US economy posts strong first quarter, but consumer spending slows, Lydia DePhillis, 04/26/2019: The US economy grew at a much better than expected rate in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday…One looming question: Will these surprising numbers change the Federal Reserve's stated plans to hold off on interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year? Not if they look at the underlying numbers, writes Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with the accounting firm RSM US.
MarketWatch, GDP ‘stomped’ estimates, but some factors appear unsustainable, economists say, Robert Schroeder, 04/26/2019: Here’s what economists are saying after the Commerce Department reported first-quarter gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 3.2%...Joseph Brusuelas of RSM said Fed policymakers would “look right past” the top-line number, and predicted no interest-rate hikes or cuts until after the presidential election. He also said the increase in inventories was “non-sustainable.”
MarketWatch, Opinion: Behind that great GDP number, the real economy slumped, Rex Nutting, 04/26/2019: The economy isn’t doing nearly as well as that 3.2% annual growth rate for gross domestic product reported Friday by the Commerce Department…“Fed policy makers are going to look right past that 3.2% top-line number and focus on composition of growth, which will reaffirm its prudent pause,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Investing.com, Stocks - Wall Street Weighs Weak Dow Earnings Against Strong GDP Reading, 04/26/2019: U.S. stocks ticked lower in early trading Friday as disappointing earnings news from Dow components offset better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US, insisted that the numbers were not a game changer for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. “Fed policymakers are going to look right past that 3.2% top-line number and focus on composition of growth, which will reaffirm its prudent pause. No rate hikes or cuts until after the 2020 election,” he said.
Politico, Trump defies doubters with surging economy, Ben White and Victoria Guida, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy is defying dire predictions of a slowdown this year with growth strengthening, wages rising, unemployment falling and markets rocking to new highs. It should be an incumbent president’s dream and a nightmare for those trying to replace him…Should an economic fade happen, Trump’s best ticket to reelection could vanish. “If you are someone who works in politics, you are going to want to scream about the top line on first-quarter growth and privately worry that it may not look so good when the next quarter comes around,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Seeking Alpha, Look at 1.3% growth in Q1 real private demand, economists say, Liz Kiesche, 04/26/2019: Looking deeper into the stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP number, economists are seeing underlying growth somewhat less robust. Increased inventory accumulation of $128.4B and the narrowing trade deficit accounted for the drove the 3.2% top-line growth, says Joseph Brusuelas of RSM.
CFO.com, U.S. Economy Posts Surprise 3.2% GDP Gain, Matthew Heller, 04/26/2019: The U.S. economy grew more than expected in the first quarter amid a sharp decline in imports and a buildup of inventories but economists said underlying trends are consistent with an economic slowdown…“Fed policymakers are going to look right past that 3.2% top-line number and focus on the composition of growth, which will reaffirm its prudent pause,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: Jobs of the future flatline, Steve LeVine, 04/23/2019: Job growth was flat for the third straight quarter in what have seemed to be some of the economy's least automatable occupations, such as AI, cybersecurity and environmental work. The trend suggests these occupations, too, are susceptible to economic cooling…Such jobs may be under the same pressure that have already beset other, besieged professions. "I’m not so sure that HR jobs and some software engineering are not subject to automation," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tells Axios.
BNN Bloomberg, Modestly slower growth in Canada compared to 2018: RSM's chief economist, 04/22/2019: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM joins BNN Bloomberg to provide his predictions for the Canadian economy.
Washington Post, A U.S. recession looks less likely in 2020, boosting Trump’s chances of reelection, Heather Long, 04/17/2019: A noticeable shift has taken place on Wall Street and among many economists and business leaders in recent weeks: Fears of an imminent recession have faded and been replaced with cautious optimism, especially about 2020, a trend that bodes well for President Trump as he seeks reelection…“All of the optimism about the economy assumes the U.S.-China trade conflict is rolled back and Mr. Trump doesn’t start imposing auto tariffs on the E.U. and Asia,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM.
Axios, The problem with automation, Steve LeVine, 04/10/2019: A drumbeat of studies has pushed back hard against concern over the accelerated automation of factories and other businesses, predicting that — just as industrial age advances have always done — robots will produce many more jobs than they destroy…"The important elements that I pulled out of the emerging work here is that there is going to need to be a policy response to technological unemployment in the near to medium term," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "During that time span there is likely to be more technological displaced workers than there are jobs created from the integration of artificial intelligence."
CNBC, Brusuelas: Less than zero chance the Fed raises rates this year, 04/09/2019: RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas and CNBC's Steve Liesman discuss the U.S. government's alternative econ data gathering, and whether the Fed will move at all the rest of this year.
Bloomberg Radio, Predictions for the U.S. Economy (Radio), 04/08/2019: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, joins Lisa and Paul to touch on RSM’s GDP forecast and his predictions for the U.S. economy. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.
Associated Press, Hiring rebounds as US employers add a solid 196,000 jobs, Christopher Rugaber, 04/05/2019: Hiring in the United States rebounded in March as U.S. employers added a solid 196,000 jobs, up sharply from February’s scant gain and evidence that many businesses still want to hire despite signs that the economy is slowing…The jobs data “are not strong enough to dislodge the Fed from its current policy path,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm.
Associated Press, The Latest: Solid jobs report unlikely to change Fed plans, 04/05/2019: Economists say solid hiring and modest wage gains in Friday’s jobs report for March probably aren’t enough to change the Federal Reserve’s current plans to hold off on additional interest rate hikes…The data in Friday’s report “are not strong enough to dislodge the Fed from its current policy path,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm. Brusuelas expects the Fed will remain on hold “likely through 2020.”
CBS News, Employment bounces back in March with 196,000 jobs added, Irvina Ivanova, 04/05/2019: Business hiring bounced back in March after a disappointing February, with 196,000 jobs added, surpassing economists' expectations…The numbers show "that growth might be slowing but underlying fundamentals remain strong," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting consultancy RSM.
Investing.com, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Provide Sigh of Relief, Supports Fed Patience, 04/05/2019: The U.S. employment report for March provided a sigh of relief after recent signs of weakness in the labor market, while at the same time did not send a powerful enough signal to make markets fear a change in the Federal Reserve’s current “patient” approach to monetary policy…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM US LLP, came to the same conclusion: “The March employment data and February revision is not strong enough to dislodge the Fed from its current policy path, which is in line with our model that implies that Fed is likely on hold through 2020.”
MarketWatch, Economists see a labor market that keeps on trucking as payrolls bounce back, Robert Schroeder, 04/05/2019: Economists said Friday’s jobs report for March showed a labor market that “keeps trucking along,” as payrolls bounced back from their low levels in February and the U.S. added 196,000 jobs…Joseph Brusuelas of RSM, meanwhile, found the report “meh.” “Its a meh March employment report. While the topline exceed expectations at 196K and the composition of hiring was mixed. Wage gains slowed on the month to a 3mo avg annualized pace of 3%. Real concerns about productivity due to solid hiring and slowing growth.”
Investing.com, U.S. Economy Posts Lowest Job Creation in 18 Months: ADP, 04/03/2019: The U.S. economy added the fewest private sector jobs since October 2017 last month, fueling concerns that the labor market is running out of steam. U.S. private employers added just 129,000 jobs in March, down from 197,000 in February, according to a report by payrolls processor ADP (NASDAQ:ADP) released on Wednesday. Economists had expected a gain of 184,000 jobs…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US LLP, said he was “sticking with” his previous forecast of 155,000 jobs in total employment for March. Even though Brusuelas’ own forecast was lower than consensus, he warned that “slowing economic activity during the first quarter places downside risk on our top-line employment growth forecast.”
Axios, 1 big thing: Kudlow and the Fed, Mike Allen, 03/29/2019: Here's how not normal things are: The White House economic adviser broke with tradition and waded into Federal Reserve rate setting today…"That is the first sign of panic out of the White House of the rapid deceleration in growth that lay ahead in Q1’19 & the year as a whole. This will not be looked at kindly by the Fed nor the fixed income market which will smell the fear in the air." - Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM tells Axios in an email.
Investing.com, U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Revised Down as Economy Loses Steam, 03/28/2019: The U.S. economy grew less than thought in the fourth quarter, according to data published on Thursday that underlined the ongoing slowdown that has extended into 2019. The third estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.2%, downwardly revised from a preliminary estimate of 2.6%, and a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% reported in the third quarter of last year.…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accountancy firm RSM US LLP, pointed to the softer dynamic in consumption and gross private investment, along with the downward revisions to real final sales and gross domestic income. “All reflect slowing in overall economic activity in December which spilled over into current quarter,” Brusuelas said.
CNBC, The Fed’s policy switch may be too late to save the economy from fading, Jeff Cox, 03/22/2019: The Federal Reserve’s policy pivot this week may be too late to save an economy that is suddenly struggling to avoid grinding to a halt…Likewise, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, figures it will be a “near-miss” on a recession, but said the Fed’s recent actions show it is “preparing for a change in framework.”
WGN Radio, Wintrust Business Lunch, 03/22/2019: …Joe Bruseulas shared the reason behind what will cause the slowdown to the economy (and the rest of the U.S.).
Yahoo! Finance, Fed Dims Economic Outlook, 03/21/2019: The Federal Reserve has dimmed the U.S. economic outlook, and stated it will leave interest rates unchanged. Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, and Brian Cheung join National Taxpayers Union Senior Fellow Mattie Duppler & RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas to discuss. NOTE: Other video clips from the hour-long “On the Move” segment featuring Joe can be found here: clip 1; clip 2; clip 3; clip 4, clip 5 and clip 6.
Washington Post, Federal Reserve cuts growth forecast, signals no more rate hikes in 2019, Heather Long, 03/20/2019: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday suggested it would not raise interest rates in 2019, a dramatic about-face that indicated the central bank’s worries about the economy are intensifying…“The [Fed] is attempting to engineer a soft landing for an economy that rapidly decelerated during the first quarter of 2019 amid global economic headwinds, volatility across asset space, and policy risks associated with U.S. trade policy,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, wrote in a blog post. Similar article in Financial Times.
Business Insider, The Fed was 'as dovish as they could be without spooking the market.' Here's what Wall Street is saying., 03/21/2019: With a flurry of ongoing strains, the Federal Reserve now sees the economy growing this year at a slower pace than previously thought…"The Fed is no longer truly concerned, if ever it truly was, about an overheating economy. With inflation risks off the table in the near term, the Fed will begin to turn its attention to using open mouth operations to support financial markets, as investors attempt to ascertain if the current slowdown is a growth head fake or a harbinger of things to come." -Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Yahoo! Finance, Why the Fed's next move could be a rate cut, Javier E. David, 03/20/2019: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes — something market observers and President Donald Trump once widely characterized as a policy error — may become the central bank’s saving grace in the face of a slowing global economy…Earlier this week, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote that weaker data and falling price pressures led him to the conclusion that the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates “should the clearly visible downturn in overall economic activity over the past four months not reverse course.”
Yahoo! Finance, How Fed Chair Powell could make or break the case for a rate cut, Brian Cheung, 03/19/2019: The Federal Reserve will wrap up its second policy-setting meeting of 2019 on Wednesday, where it is not expected to raise rates…RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas wrote March 19 he sees a toned down picture in the data, pointing to drifting inflation expectations and “weakness” in the current pace of economic growth. Brusuelas predicted no rate hikes for 2019, adding that the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates “should the clearly visible downturn in overall economic activity over the past four months not reverse course.”
CNBC, Counting down to jobs, 03/08/2019: Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist, discusses the upcoming jobs report and which numbers matter to the market.
The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics: Bad Jobs Report? Don’t Sweat It., 03/08/2019: U.S. employers added a scant 20,000 jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and hourly wages posted their best annual gain in nearly a decade in February… The U.S. economy has slowed over the past three months and hiring eased along with it. —Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US.
MarketWatch, ‘Don’t hit panic’ — economists find the jobs report wasn’t as bad as 20,000 headline suggests, Robert Schroeder, 03/08/2019: Just 20,000 jobs added in February, but unemployment rate falls to 3.8%...Joe Brusuelas of RSM called wage gains the “silver lining” in the report. “Strong monthly gain of 0.4% in wages which brings the 3 month average annualized pace to 3.3 percent. That is the silver lining in an otherwise cloudy report.”
Axios, 1 big thing: An end to the jobs party, Steve Levine, 03/08/2019: A plunge in U.S. jobs growth suggests that the party is nearing an end for American workers, who have enjoyed their best employment conditions in a half century…The big picture: What we are watching is jobs following the economy. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says economic growth is below 1% in the current quarter, and job expansion is slowing, too. "I think that the sizzle has gone out of the steak," he tells Axios.
Axios, Want to cure the trade deficit? Start a recession, Steve Levine, 03/07/2019: The U.S. trade deficit — how much the country buys from abroad, versus how much it sells — rose to a 10-year high last year. And economists surveyed by Axios say there's only one certain way that President Trump can achieve his cherished aim of slashing it: push the economy into recession…The bottom line: As of now, the relatively robust U.S. economy is staving off recession for the rest of the world. The widening trade deficit lowers 2018 GDP growth to 2.9%, 0.3% below previously reported, and that's likely to be the peak before the next economic downturn, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Politico, Signs of economic strain emerge in Trump’s home base, Ben White and Katy O’Donnell, 03/07/2019: The luxury real estate market in Manhattan is sagging. The GOP tax law is hitting real estate markets across the nation…“When you look at the New York metro area, we are moving from an extended period of stagnation to one of outright softening,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, U.S.
Nashville Business Journal, Addressing the No. 1 issue facing middle market businesses, 03/04/2019: What’s keeping middle market business leaders up at night? Lack of qualified labor. With less than one person willing and available to work for every job opening, it’s the tightest labor market in 50 years. How can business leaders think differently to close the labor gap? RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas says automation will be key in addressing labor shortages for middle market business leaders. Watch the video and learn what’s driving today’s labor shortage and ideas to address it.
Axios, 1 big thing: As good as it gets?, Dion Rabouin, 03/01/2019: What's happening: Thanks to the Q4 GDP report, we know how much businesses used their tax windfalls to invest in buildings, machinery or intellectual property since the lower corporate tax rate took effect…What to watch: "We would not be surprised to observe downward revisions in the estimate to business investment given the outright weakness in industrial production and durable goods data through the end of 2018," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm, wrote in a note to clients.
Bankrate, U.S. economy grew 2.6% in the fourth quarter, better than expected, Sarah Foster, 02/28/2019: The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2018 but performed well ahead of expectations, as consumers helped provide a boost and business investment picked up…he economy expanded by 2.9 percent in 2018, based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ calculations. But judging from the way economists measure growth, the economy grew by 3.1 percent last year, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Reuters, WRAPUP 1-Consumers, weak exports seen curbing U.S. fourth-quarter growth, Lucia Mutikani, 02/28/2019: The U.S. economy probably slowed in the fourth quarter, held back by softer consumer spending and weak exports, which could leave 2018 growth just shy of the Trump administration’s 3 percent annual target…“The tax cut was not a game changer, it did not result in a permanent lifting of the trajectory of growth, just a temporary increase,” said Brusuelas, who estimated the tax cut effect peaked in October.
POLITICO, Trump pushes back China deadline, Ben White, 02/25/2019: …RECIPE FOR RECESSION — Economists are mostly notching down their estimates for 2019 but almost none are predicting outright contraction before next year or 2021. But it’s not impossible. MM spoke to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM about how recession could come this year: “The only way we get a recession is if the White House doesn’t strike a deal with China and tariffs go to 25 percent on all $517 billion we import. Then throw 25 percent [auto] tariffs on Europe and Asia. That’s a recipe for near-term recession.”
MarketWatch, Stocks close higher in wake of Fed minutes; Nasdaq matches winning streak from August, Sue Chang and Chris Matthews, 02/20/2019: Stock indexes closed moderately higher Wednesday, with the Nasdaq up for an eighth session in a row, following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, which showed the policy-setting committee was split on the path for interest rates…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said the minutes suggest that the Fed may retreat to a Bernanke-like stance in terms of the inflation target where “2% does not always mean 2%.”
Middle Market Growth, RSM’s Joe Brusuelas on What to Watch in Uncertain Economic Times, 02/20/2019: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, spoke with MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan about what U.S. middle-market managers should be watching as the economy slows and risk factors mount, notably the trade dispute with China. Brusuelas doesn’t anticipate a recession this year—unless there is a significant hike in import taxes—but he described what he expects a downturn will look like when it occurs.
CNBC's Nightly Business Report, Rising National & Consumer Debt, 02/13/2019: Joining us now to talk about the implications of all of this for the economy Joe Brusuelas is back with us, he’s chief economist at RSM. Joe good to see you again. Do any of those numbers make your palms sweat? Well the fact that we’ve got people falling more than 90 days behind on their loans for auto loans does cause some concern. I’m not too worried about the national debt. Right now that’s not a problem nor should it be our concern.
Accounting Today, Podcast Risks to the economy in 2019, 02/11/2019: RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas lays out the national and international issues facing the economic landscape over the next 12 months.
Yahoo! Finance, January Jobs Report Stuns, Exceeding Expectations (starting at 4:00), 02/01/2019: The U.S. economy added 304,000 jobs despite last month's government shutdown. Yahoo Finance's Heidi Chung reports. RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and King's College Professor Brian Brenberg join our panel to discuss.
Yahoo! Finance, Stocks for Amazon drop after earnings report, 02/01/2019: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and King's College Professor Brian Brenberg join Yahoo Finance's Adam Shapiro and Brian Cheung to discuss the latest in Amazon's fourth-quarter earnings report.
MarketWatch, Why wage gains may accelerate despite January pause, Jeffry Bartash, 02/01/2019: Worker pay barely rose in January despite a hefty 304,000 gain in new jobs and a slew of increases in minimum wages across the country…So there you have it. Wages are rising steadily, if slowly. That’s not a bad thing, either. It means the Federal Reserve doesn’t have to worry as much about the threat of inflation and can keep U.S. interest rates on the low side. As long as interest rates and inflation remain low, the economy is likely to keep growing and stave off its first recession in a decade. “This will no doubt provide substantial relief to policymakers at the central bank,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Axios, 1 big thing: The two-sided jobs picture, Steve LeVine, 02/01/2019: What's happening: In reports today, the government said the U.S. economy is roaring into 2019 — but not wages…But, but, but: Though wages grew by 3.2%, or 1.3% after accounting for inflation, that is about half what it should be, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM…"It was another month of anemic gains in hourly wages," Brusuelas said.
CNN Business, Manufacturing sector rebounded sharply in January, Paul R. La Monica, 02/01/2019: The jobs numbers for January were solid. But it was another report that showed a strong gain in manufacturing activity that ignited a rally on Wall Street Friday. Stocks rose after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its key index on manufacturing rose 2.3 percentage points from December…"ISM really turbocharged the market this morning. It wasn't the jobs report," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US.
Benzinga, Federal Reserve Unanimously Votes To Leave Rates Unchanged, Elizabeth Balboa, 01/30/2019: As Fed officials intimated and economists predicted, the Federal Open Markets Committee unanimously voted Wednesday to maintain interest rates between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent. Its statement assured constant rates for some time…RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas anticipates two rate hikes in the back half of 2019.
Axios, 1 big thing: More Fed than ever before, 01/30/2019: A new era of more frequent press conferences begins today, and it will likely change the way investors look at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's words, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports…The big picture: As the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos points out, there have been a series of confusing comments from Powell that have spooked markets. Both investors and the chairman himself will now have to get used to a bigger and more regular dose of Powell. "We do not envy Chair Powell, who is clearly not a verbal stunt pilot, on how he plans to address the questions he will face from aggressive financial journalists following the release of the Fed statement," says RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas.
Dallas Business Journal, Economist: Shutdown’s impact on DFW and Texas economy will linger, Bill Hethcock, 01/25/2019: The partial government shutdown may have ended, at least for now, but the impact on the Dallas-Fort Worth and Texas economies will be lingering and substantial. That’s the view of Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for audit, tax and consulting firm RSM U.S. LLP. Brusuelas shared his thoughts in an interview with the Dallas Business Journal on Friday. “The impacts on the Texas economy of the government shutdown are going to be highly asymmetric,” Brusuelas said."
Chief Investment Officer, How the Government Shutdown Will Ding the Employment Report, 01/30/2019: The US has been riding a good-news tide of rising employment and dropping joblessness for some time. Thanks to the recent 35-day partial government shutdown, that’s about to be reversed, at least temporarily. That’s the projection of RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, who expects the national unemployment rate to rise to 4.1% from 3.9% in December. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues its numbers on Friday, he wrote in a research report, that will mark the first net loss of jobs since September 2010, a full 99 months ago.
Houston Business Journal, TSA security checkpoint at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport to reopen, Olivia Pulsinelli, 01/28/2019: Terminal B at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport will return to normal operations this week now that the partial government shutdown has ended…The length of the partial shutdown is unprecedented, so many of the economic ramifications can’t yet be quantified, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for audit, tax and consulting firm RSM US LLP, told the Dallas Business Journal. “The impacts on the Texas economy of the government shutdown are going to be highly asymmetric,” he said.
San Antonio Express-News, San Antonio-area shutdown victims hope truce is lasting, Lynn Brezosky, 01/24/2019: After a month without a paycheck, federal prison worker Arthur Trevino was glad to hear news Friday that President Donald Trump had agreed to reopen the federal government. But he won’t forget the financial pain he and his family had lived through anytime soon…Joe Brusuelas, the Austin-based chief economist for RSM U.S., a tax consulting firm, said a continued shutdown would have inflicted even more pain on transportation hubs, such as Houston, with large numbers of unpaid Federal Aviation Administration, Customs and Border Protection, and TSA workers. Last week, a “sick-out” among unpaid TSA workers had forced the closing of a Bush International Airport terminal in Houston.
BankDirector.com, Will Banks Draw a Bust Card on the Economy?, Jack Milligan, 01/16/2019: Anyone who has ever played blackjack can appreciate the decision that bank chief executive officers and independent directors face today with the red-hot U.S. economy. There are two decidedly different views on how the economy will perform over the next 19 to 24 months…If Foster and Vitner give voice to the optimistic outlook, Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas at the consulting firm RSM takes a dimmer view of the economy’s likely performance over the next two years. Brusuelas forecasts the U.S. economy to grow between 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent in 2019, and then drop to 1.8 percent in 2020. “My sense is that the [tax cut], which in part is responsible for the strong growth we’re having, has already peaked,” he says.
NBC News, The government shutdown's forgotten victims, Dareh Gregorian, 01/19/2019: The government shutdown has already cost federal contractors — and their employees — between $5 and $6 billion, experts say. And unlike the 800,000 furloughed federal employees who haven't been paid since the longest shutdown in U.S. history began on Dec. 22, the contractors aren't likely to get back pay when the impasse eventually ends…"We economists are likely severely underestimating the economic impact due to the loss of work from government contractors," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for international consulting RSM US. "We are in uncharted terrain with a shutdown of this breadth and depth."
NPR, Government Shutdown Causing Far Greater Damage To Economy Than Previously Estimated, Jim Zaroroli, 01/16/2019: …And that kind of pull back on spending can lead to slower growth as a whole, especially in places with a lot of federal employees. Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, says there are cities such as Ogden, Utah, site of a large IRS facility: “These are highly paid professionals with educations who aren’t receiving income. We’re going to see at least two paychecks missed by these individuals. That’s an entire month of pay.”
Marketplace, Small, medium business CEOs are losing a lot of confidence in the economy, Mitchell Hartman, 01/16/2019: Joseph Brusuelas at RSM consulting says economic and political problems are piling on now, “causing what we call a growing uncertainty tax on the economy.” He predicts businesses will hold back on investment and expansion plans while that uncertainty reigns.
NBC News, Long airport waits among the mounting problems as government shutdown drags on, Dareh Gregorian, Vaughn Hillyard and Maura Barrett, 01/14/2019: Long security lines plagued travelers at several airports across the country Monday due to the partial government shutdown…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US, told NBC News that increased airport woes might force both sides to find a way to end the shutdown because of the potential affects on businesses.
NBC News, The 'doomsday' scenario: Here's what happens if the shutdown drags on, 01/10/2019: The country would face an economic hellscape if the government shutdown lasts "months or even years," as the president has suggested it might, experts tell NBC News…By the end of February, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, run by the Department of Agriculture, would be out of funding — meaning almost 40 million low-income Americans could find themselves struggling to pay for food, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM US…"The near-term impact is people getting evicted, having their heat turned off and not having enough food," Brusuelas said.
MarketWatch, Voters blame Trump, Republicans for shutdown in poll | Democrats to probe family separation, detention, Robert Schroeder, 01/09/2019: Nearly half of American voters — 47% — say it’s President Donald Trump who is mostly to blame for the partial government shutdown, according to a new Politico/Morning Consult poll taken before the president’s Oval Office address Tuesday night…Economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM has estimated that if the shutdown extends to a year it could reduce gross domestic product by as much as 1%.
Huffington Post, How The Trump Administration Could Keep Food Assistance Going During The Shutdown, Arthur Delaney, 01/08/2019: There’s a way for the Trump administration to continue food assistance during the government shutdown ― at least according to one legal theory…Joe Brusuelas, an economist with the accounting firm RSM, estimated a full year without SNAP benefits would reduce gross domestic product by as much as 1 percent.
Axios, The economists who predicted a surge in gig jobs say they were wrong, Steve LeVine, 01/07/2019: n In 2016, two prominent U.S. economists turned heads with a paper stating that the country was going gig — Americans were throwing aside the traditional desire for full-time jobs and opting for the freedom and flexibility of freelance work. Now the pair — Princeton University's Alan Krueger and Harvard's Lawrence Katz — say they were fooled by economic noise and that workers are pretty much the same as they've always been…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, tells Axios that the pair's new paper is par for the course. "If you're not getting it wrong 20% of the time, you are not doing your job," he says.
MarketWatch, Here’s what happens to the economy if food stamps are halted for a year due to the shutdown, Robert Shroeder, 01/07/2019: Here are two more ways a partial government shutdown could affect Americans if it continues: millions won’t get food stamps and the economy will grow at a slower pace. With the shutdown in its 17th day, economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM takes a look at those two issues as he says it’s increasingly likely that money to sufficiently fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps, will run out this month. In human terms, writes Brusuelas, 20 million low-income households and 40 million individuals would lose support.
NBC News, Jobs report is good news, but American workers still need skills training, Erik Sherman, 01/04/2019: With more and more Americans entering a booming labor market and unemployment hovering at 50-year lows, 2019 would seem to be the year of the worker…But the economy has been doing well under many measures and so education and training haven't been a first priority for governments. "This is when policymakers should think of broad retraining programs," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Washington Post, U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December and wage growth gained steam, marking a strong finish to 2018, Danielle Paquette and Andrew Van Dam, 01/04/2019: The U.S. economy added 312,000 jobs in December, smashing expectations for year-end growth, and wages rose 3.2 percent in the year since December 2017 after nearly a decade of tepid improvements, federal economists reported Friday…The unemployment rate crept up to 3.9 percent — the highest level since July, the Labor Department’s latest numbers showed. That shouldn’t ring alarm bells, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an international consulting firm. “You’re bringing people back into the labor force," he said. "That’s a good thing.”
Benzinga, Economists React To Blowout December Jobs Report, Wayne Duggan, 01/04/2019: For the second straight morning, U.S. investors concerned about an imminent recession received data suggesting the economy is stronger than expected…Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP, said the December report doesn't change his expectations for a six-month pause in Fed rate hikes. "Today’s data reinforces the policy risks that lie ahead in 2019 even as the exaggerated topline data points to an underlying trend of roughly 220,000 in a year when the economy generated 2.638 million. Our model of the Fed’s reaction function indicates the Fed should remain on pause for the first six months of 2019 and then lift rates by 25 basis points in June with an additional increase of 25 basis points in final quarter of the year," Brusuelas said.
Bankrate, Fed chair doesn’t plan to quit, despite criticism from President Trump, Amanda Dixon, 01/04/2019: The Federal Reserve chair’s latest comments are music to investors’ ears…Given that the economy last year was more “robust” than projected, the Fed ultimately decided to increase interest rates four times in 2018. The White House has made claims that the economy is growing at or above 3 percent, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM, a tax, audit and consulting services provider. “One would want rates to go up with an economy growing at that rate,” he added.
The Washington Post, Millions face delayed tax refunds, cuts to food stamps as White House scrambles to deal with shutdown’s consequences, Damian Paletta and Erica Werner, 01/04/2019: Food stamps for 38 million low-income Americans would face severe reductions and more than $140 billion in tax refunds are at risk of being frozen or delayed if the government shutdown stretches into February, widespread disruptions that threaten to hurt the economy…The cumulative impact of these changes could have a major impact on the economy. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., an accounting and consulting firm, said a prolonged shutdown would shave an entire percentage point off the U.S.’s economic growth, in part because of an “uncertainty tax” that would freeze spending by households and businesses.
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Factory Activity Decelerates Sharply Amid Global Slowdown, Sharon Nunn and Nick Timiraos, 01/03/2019: American manufacturing growth slowed sharply in December, adding to concerns about cooling economic expansions in the U.S. and abroad…In December, analysts cut earnings forecasts for this year on most of the companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet, for the first time in two years. But the broad decline in the manufacturing index suggests the weakness wasn’t confined to worries over trade and declines in oil prices that have idled production in the energy sector. “The U.S. is definitely in the late innings of the current business cycle,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM U.S.
Marketplace, Five things to watch out for in 2019 in the global economy, Sabri Ben-Achour, 01/01/2019: It’s not often that a year is riven with so many momentous economic changes… Here’s a look at what 2019 inherited from 2018, and the issues to watch for as we start the new year…On June 23, 2016, a majority of Britons voted to leave the European Union. Two and a half years later, there is still no agreement on how they'll actually do it. But whether there’s agreement or not, it will happen in March.“I think one of the underestimated risks to the global economic outlook in 2019 are those associated with a hard Brexit,” warns Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Nightly Business Report (segment available via YouTube at 7:00 mark), Market Vs the Economy,” 12/28/2018: Do you see slower growth in 2019 relative to what we’ve seen so far this year? Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist: I do, I’m expecting 2.2% growth next year as we move back to the long-term trend of 1.8 percent. That financial volatility you’ve seen over the past three months should be considered a proxy for slower cash flows linked to trade tensions around the world out of the White House.
CNN Business, Government shutdown threatens access to key economic data, Lydia DePillis, 12/26/2018: Among the many public services that Americans will miss if the partial government shutdown continues beyond this week, here's a big one: data…"Because we're already experiencing heightened volatility, this just adds another combustible element into the mix," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the consulting firm RSM US.
Associated Press, Trump assails Fed as the ‘only problem our economy has’, Josh Boak, 12/24/2018: President Donald Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve on Monday after administration officials spent the weekend trying to assure the public and financial markets that Jerome Powell’s job as Fed chairman was safe…“My sense is the Mnuchin tweets don’t tell us much about the economy, but they provide unusual insight into the chaos inside the White House,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM. “Rather than instilling confidence, it created confusion and raised more questions than it answered. Foremost among those is, how safe is the job of Jay Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve?”
Washington Post, As stocks drop, Trump fears he’s losing his best argument for reelection, Heather Long, Josh Dawsey and Thomas Heath, 12/20/2018:President Trump has kept an almost obsessive watch on the stock market as it has lurched lower in recent weeks, tuning in to Fox Business and checking in with Lou Dobbs, a host on the network…“The market has lost confidence in the narrative coming out of the White House on the economy and trade,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a multinational network of accounting firms.
Benzinga, The Federal Reserve Issues Fourth Rate Hike Of 2018, Wayne Duggan, 12/19/2018: On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve delivered the interest rate hike the markets were expecting. The Fed announced it will be upping the fed funds target rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 2.25-2.50 percent…RSM US LLP chief economist Joe Brusuelas said investors likely didn’t get what they were hoping for from the Fed. “The statement and the summary of economic projections were not as dovish as many market participants desired, which from our vantage point does suggest that the Fed will hike rates as many as twice in 2019,” Brusuelas said following the Fed’s decision. “Thus, investors or policymakers who are concluding that it’s one and done for the Fed are likely to be disappointed in the year ahead.” Similar article in Financial Times.
ABL Advisor, Middle Market Outlook Remains Strong Amid Concerns About Inflation, Labor Market, 12/19/2018: In the fourth quarter of 2018, the MMBI posted a composite score of 132.0, a slight 2.4-point decrease from last quarter's 134.4…"This quarter's MMBI performance conforms to our forecast for a moderating economy as we head into 2019, but business activity – particularly in the middle market – remains strong, and a recession is far from imminent," said Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP chief economist. "Even so, clouds are forming on the horizon related to declining fiscal outlays later in 2019, inflationary pressures and, perhaps most importantly, an uncertain outlook for tariffs and trade policy."
Marketplace, Holiday shopping forecasts are good, but not as good as 2017, Mitchell Hartman, 12/17/2018: Consumer confidence and spending have held up well against a backdrop of economic warning signs — from the volatile stock market to the faltering housing market. Economist Joe Brusuelas at RSM expects consumers to remain upbeat as the job market remains strong, with unemployment continuing to fall and wages rising in coming months.
The Wall Street Journal, Hiring Slows as Wages Grow, Unemployment Holds at Multidecade Low, Eric Morath, 12/07/2018: U.S. employers slowed their hiring in November, but wage growth matched the highest rate in nearly a decade and unemployment held at its lowest level in nearly half a century, signs of an economy that could be losing some momentum at the end of a strong year…“The economy is slowing and hiring is going to slow with it,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US. “Business activity remains stout, but we are seeing some cracks.” He pointed to supply-chain disruptions due to the trade dispute with China and a sluggish housing market.
Associated Press, US hiring slower but steady as employers add 155K jobs, Christopher Rugaber, 12/07/2018: U.S. businesses added a smaller but still-healthy number of jobs last month, while the unemployment rate remained at a five-decade low and wages rose at a solid clip…“The economy continues to churn out new jobs and reflects the strong underlying business conditions that point to steady, albeit slower job growth and economic activity in 2019,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “This report strongly implies that a recession is not looming just over the horizon."
Benzinga, Economists React To The November Jobs Report, Wayne Duggan, 12/07/2018: The S&P 500 rebounded Friday morning after the latest U.S. jobs report was slightly weaker than expected…Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US LLP, said a minor jobs growth miss won't be enough to deter the Fed from sticking to its plan. “The 155,000 increase in total employment should allay that the Fed will push rates well above neutral in coming months putting at risk the nine-year-old economic expansion,” Brusuelas said.
Middle Market Growth, RSM’s Joe Brusuelas on the Middle Market’s Labor Dilemma, 11/20/2018: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, joined MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan to provide an economic update for the middle market, including how the tight labor market, trade tensions and monetary policy decisions will impact midsize companies. Brusuelas expects the labor shortage will lead to production bottlenecks next year, prompting companies to substitute robotics and automation for human labor, and he says middle-market leaders should plan to increase wages by as much as 4 percent over the next six months to attract qualified employees.
Washington Post, Trump’s trade war may have helped Democrats win the House, 11/9/2018: Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, which runs along the U.S.-Canada border, has one of the highest concentrations of iron miners in the country. Republicans took it from Democrats in Tuesday’s midterm election amid a surge in the industry propelled in part by President Trump’s tariffs on China… “It’s very clear, based on how they lost seats in the Upper Midwest, that declining agricultural markets likely led to the overturning of the GOP majority in the House,” said Joe Brusuelas, an economist with RSM, an international accounting firm. “It’s hard to imagine that these seats would have flipped anyway.”
Associated Press, With split Congress, prospect for economic deals looks dim, Josh Boak, 11/08/2018: President Donald Trump floated the idea Wednesday of partnering with the newly Democratic-led House on two ideas that could prove popular with voters: Increasing spending on America’s infrastructure and limiting drug prices…Still, Trump could be pressured to bargain with the Democrats on two major fiscal issues with consequences for the economy, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM.
Benzinga, Tariffs, Drug Prices, Legislative Gridlock: What Economists Are Watching Following The Midterm Election, Wayne Duggan, 11/07/2018: Democrats didn’t get the blue wave they hoped for Tuesday, but they picked up enough votes to take the majority in the House of Representatives, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate…The primary election takeaway for most investors can be boiled down to one word, said RSM US LLP chief economist Joseph Brusuelas. “Gridlock — that’s the primary economic and financial implication of the Democrats’ takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Republicans’ retention of power in the Senate,” Brusuelas said Wednesday.
MarketWatch, Evidence that U.S.-China trade talks are the biggest catalyst for the stock market, Mark Decambre, 11/04/2018: U.S. stocks bounced back this week after a nasty October. And while experts have cited a number of factors behind the resurgence in equities—including stocks being oversold and a strong economic backdrop—it would appear that one key narrative has helped to drive stocks toward a four-day rally: developments around the U.S.-China trade skirmish…That is reflected in the following tweet from Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM: Rumors of a US-China trade truce look more like an attempt to talk up the market ahead of the election rather than real progress on the trade spat. I'm still telling client to prepare for a full 25% tariff on $517 billion of Chinese imports by mid-2019.
The Washington Post, ‘That was shocking’: Strong job gains give GOP extra fuel heading into Election Day, Heather Long and Danielle Paquette, 11/02/2018: Hiring surged and wages grew more than they have in almost a decade, the government said Friday in a report seized on by Republicans just before the midterm elections as evidence their policies are delivering for American workers. In a key economic snapshot before Tuesday’s vote, the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report showed that the typical worker’s earnings rose by 3.1 percent in the past year — the biggest such leap since 2009. “This is the best labor environment in over a decade,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., an international consulting firm.
Benzinga.com, October Unemployment Rate Unchanged; Economist Says Fed Will Likely Read Data As 'Modestly Inflationary', Hannah Genig, 11/02/2018: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report each month outlining the employment landscape. After a weather-induced slowdown last month due to Hurricane Michael, numbers are rising again…The October U.S. employment report demonstrated a strong rebound in hiring, with a 3.1-percent gain in average hourly earnings, said RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas.
MarketWatch, Economists ‘wowed’ by October jobs report as wage growth picks up, Robert Schroeder, 11/02/2018: Economists said October’s payrolls report showed all-around strength, highlighting wages climbing 3.1% in the past 12 months as they called the data consistent with further tightening by the Federal Reserve…RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said the data “just about guarantees” a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US Nov NFP Policy Implications: The employment data will reaffirm the growing hawkish outlook at the Fed. In my estimation this just about guarantees at December rate hike. I expect four 25bps hikes in 2019 in contrast with the current Fed forecast of three.
Investing.com, Jobs Report Adds More Support to Fed Rate Hikes, 11/02/2018: October’s solid jobs report provided more data for the Federal Reserve to move ahead with another interest rate hike in December…RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said the data will reaffirm the growing hawkish outlook at the Fed. “In my estimation this just about guarantees at December rate hike,” he said. “I expect four 25 basis point hikes in 2019 in contrast with the current Fed forecast of three.
Reuters, U.S. job growth soars; annual wage gain largest since 2009, Lucia Mutikani, 11/02/2018: U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in October and wages recorded their largest annual gain in 9-1/2 years, pointing to further labor market tightening that could encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in December…“The risk in 2019 is that the Fed will increase the pace of rate hikes,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. “Market participants will likely need to adjust their expectations going forward.”
Industry Week, Why Aren’t Tax Cuts Translating to Capital Spending?, Joseph Brusuelas, 10/26/2018: The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was intended to spur productivity-enhancing investment. For many middle market firms, it represents a once-in-a-generation opportunity to capitalize on a tax windfall. The money could bolster outlays on equipment, software and intellectual property during a time of profound technological disruption across all industrial ecosystems. However, RSM’s proprietary research shows an apparent reluctance on the part of midsize companies to invest in these areas, presenting one of the emerging economic policy puzzles in the current cyclical expansion…Joseph Brusuelas is chief economist for RSM, a global accounting firm for the middle market.
MarketWatch, GDP ‘impressive,’ but investment is a weak spot, economists say, Robert Schroeder, 10/26/2018: Here are some comments from economists on third-quarter gross domestic product, which the government said decelerated a bit to a still-solid 3.5% annual rate…Joseph Brusuelas said the report would reaffirm the Fed’s monetary policy path: Q4'18 GDP Policy Implications: Topline & internals will reaffirm monetary policy path at the Fed. Investors should anticipate 25bps rate hike in December & at least 3 more in 2019. Some real concern about path of capital expenditures given rising trade tensions.
Business Insider, The solid GDP report is raising red flags on one of Trump's signature promises about tax cuts, Akin Oyedele, 10/26/2018: The US economy is still in high gear, thanks to consumers who still have the means to empty their wallets…"While it is still too early to come to conclusions on the relative effectiveness of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, there has to be some concern over this development," said Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM.
BBC Scotland, Good Morning Scotland, Gary Robertson and Hayley Millar, 10/18/2018: It’s a big day for Brexit as we’ve been hearing. There’s increasing attention from the U.S. on what’s been happening. Joe Brusuelas is chief economist of one of the U.S. biggest financial services firm RSM… What is the U.S. making of these latest developments? U.S. has a very interesting outlook on this when it comes to Brexit. Listen to Joe’s interview starting at 1:42:15.
CNBC, The Fed is undergoing a major change, and the market is having a fit, Jeff Cox, 10/10/2018: The recent financial market volatility has been caused at least in part by the Federal Reserve, and central bank officials may not mind…"There is no Powell put," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "They are absolutely moving in the direction of normalization of monetary policy and withdrawal of what is essentially the stance of the Bernanke/Yellen Fed."
MarketWatch, Christmas sweaters will be in style this holiday season, Tonya Garcia, 10/09/2018: …Still, all of this doesn’t add up to spendthrifty consumers. “We expect the U.S. consumer to behave in an eminently rational manner in the face of the recent imposition of a 10% tax on 5,745 individual goods imported from China valued at $200 billion,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, which provides audit, tax and consulting services for the middle market. “Moreover, given a push by the current administration to boost that tax to 25% in January, as well as potentially impose an additional 25% tax on an unnamed number of goods valued at $267 billion, it is likely American consumers will pull a good bit of consumption and economic activity forward into the final quarter of 2018,” Brusuelas said.
Associated Press, As joblessness falls, skilled workers might be hard to find, Josh Boak, 10/07/2018: Are America’s employers at risk of running out of skilled people to hire?... When Joe Brusuelas scanned the September jobs report, he saw signs that a shortage of skilled workers could emerge in the near future. He’s the chief economist for RSM, a consulting firm that specializes in mid-size businesses. “Over the past 12 months, we should start to see the pace of hiring grind down,” he said.
Cheddar, Unemployment Hits 49-Year Low, 10/05/2018: Stocks fell following the release of mixed employment data. The U.S. economy added 134,000 jobs in September, missing estimates of 185,000. Employment, however, fell to its lowest level in 49 years. Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM U.S., explains what the numbers tell us about the health of the U.S. economy.
The New York Times, With 8 Years of Job Gains, Unemployment Is Lowest Since 1969, Ben Casselman, 10/05/2018: The Labor Department released its official hiring and unemployment figures for September on Friday, providing the latest snapshot of the American economy…Economists and business leaders have warned for months that Mr. Trump’s trade policies could threaten the recovery, particularly in the manufacturing sector. There is little sign of that so far, however. Manufacturers added 18,000 jobs in September, and the revised figures erased what was initially reported as a small decline in August. Other measures of the industrial sector likewise show continued growth. “We really don’t have any negative impact from the tariffs yet,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for the consulting firm RSM.
Chief Investment Officer, Storm Impact May Mute September Job Report, but Not Trade War, Larry Light , 10/03/2018: The September jobs report should be a more muted gain of 168,000, according to forecasters polled by MarketWatch…Indeed, as Joseph Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, pointed out, initial predictions for September 2017 were for a 25,000 loss owing to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma—and the month ended up with a 14,000 gain.
Washington Post, Analysts say Trump may be overly optimistic on new North American trade deal, David J. Lynch and Heather Long, 10/01/2018: President Trump casts his new North American trade agreement as “the biggest trade deal in the United States’ history” — one that would return lost manufacturing jobs to American shores, discourage future outsourcing of factory work, and “send cash and jobs pouring into the United States.”… “We do not anticipate an increase in U.S. auto manufacturing employment. Rather, it will result in an advance in the use of robotics and automation in Mexico,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM.
Retail Dive, The holidays, in this economy?, Daphne Howland, 09/28/2018: After a few years of nail-biting holiday seasons that belied the post-Great Recession economic recovery, retailers this year appear to have the wind at their backs…"The economy and the consumer is on fire right now," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with global accountancy RSM, told Retail Dive in an email, adding that he also expects holiday spending to outpace last year's 5.5% increase.
Benzinga, The Federal Reserve, As Expected, Issues Third Rate Hike Of 2018, Wayne Duggan, 09/26/2018: The Federal Reserve delivered Wednesday the interest rate hike the markets were expecting…RSM US LLP chief economist Joe Brusuelas certainly wasn’t surprised by the decision…“This is in line with Fed rhetoric and the implied path of monetary policy embedded in the dot plots and the summary of economic productions,” Brusuelas said following the Fed’s decision.
Benzinga, What To Expect From This Week's Fed Meeting, Wayne Duggan, 09/25/2018: The Federal Reserve beginning Tuesday is holding a two-day meeting…RSM US LLP chief economist Joe Brusuelas says the Fed has done a fairly good job hinting at two more rate hikes this year, but its commentary this week could set the stage for a more hawkish 2019 as well.
Marketplace, Why employers are feeling more pressure to raise pay, Mitchell Hartman, 09/07/2018: Rising wages are a challenge to many employers’ bottom lines. Joe Brusuelas is chief economist at consulting firm RSM: “How small and medium sized enterprises are going to cope with that is it’s going to pull forward the point of automation. Sort of the lower entry wage workers are increasingly being crowded out due to increased technology so you can focus on paying a higher premium to those skilled workers.”
Retail Dive, August retail sales miss as gas prices rise, Daphne Howland, 09/17/2018: Retail sales rose 0.1% in August, according the latest monthly report from the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau. The figures (which excluded sales from auto dealers, gas stations, building materials and food services) were the weakest showing in several months and one that missed expectations…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with global accountancy RSM, agrees. "The major headwind at this point is a possible disruptiozn to prices linked to tariffs," he told Retail Dive in an email.
Fortune, 10 Years Since Lehman Brothers Collapse, Here's What's Still Hurting, Lucinda Shen, 09/14/2018: In many ways, the U.S. economy appears to have made a smooth recovery since the bankruptcy of Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers marked the start of the 2008 financial crisis…But the financial crisis of 2018 may have helped speed up the transition for some business owners, says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, pushing companies to layoff workers and invest in machinery in the hopes of surviving the crisis.
Axios, The coming financial contagion, Steve Levine, 09/14/2018: The party seems only to be roaring ahead — Japan's Nikkei index today closed at its highest level since February, and U.S. and European stock markets finished the week up as well…The current picture of trouble begins with the end of low, flat interest rates, which have fueled the global economy since the financial crash: the U.S., the EU and Japan have all begun to raise rates, with the Fed expected to increase them another notch later this month. The other main indicator
Axios, Workers are more confident but still mistrustful, Steve Levine, 09/11/2018: A decade after the financial crash helped to crater U.S. public faith in their leaders, American workers seem to be growing more confident, economists say, quitting their jobs at the highest rate in 17 years in search of better employment. What's going on: U.S. businesses had more than a half-million unfilled jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That calculates out to 0.91 available workers for every job, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Washington Post, A guide to the financial crisis — 10 years later, Rene Merle, 09/10/2018: A decade after the financial crisis, the casualties of the economic near-collapse are fading from memory. But that period of turmoil permanently altered the U.S. economy and the financial system…In all, the Great Recession led to a loss of more than $2 trillion in global economic growth, or a drop of nearly 4 percent, between the pre-recession peak in the second quarter of 2008 and the low hit in the first quarter of 2009, according to Moody’s Analytics. “It was such a shock to the economic system that it unleashed dynamics that we still don’t understand fully,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an audit and advisory firm.
Cheddar, U.S. Job Market is Booming and Wages Finally Increase, 09/07/2018: The U.S. economy is hitting its stride. In August employers added 201,000 jobs, beating analysts expectations and defying U.S. trade battles. Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist for RSM explains why the job market will remain strong.
Forbes, China Moves The Trade War To WTO, And That Doesn't Look Good For America, Panos Mourdoukoutas, 09/02/2018: In the trade war with America, China seems to be doing things by the book. Like filing a complaint against American tariffs with the World Trade Organization (WTO)… “Despite widespread acknowledgement of Chinese appropriation of intellectual property, the WTO will likely rule in China’s favor on its complaints around U.S. tariffs,” says Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US.
The Banker, Redefining GDP, Joy McKnight, 08/31/2018: Gross domestic product (GDP) is a standardised and widely used metric to assess the economic health of a nation…Many of the large international institutions and agencies are developing supplementary indices to address GDP’s shortfalls, without abandoning the metric altogether…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, an audit, tax and consulting services firm, agrees with Ms Coyle that, to date, there is no consensus around what should augment GDP. “There is no one method that currently is favoured, or gaining traction, in such a manner that there is a possible point of convergence to improve our conceptual understanding of economic growth, vitality and welfare,” he says.
TD Ameritrade Network, How Bearish Investors Interpret U.S. Economic Data, 08/20/2018: We have Joe Brusuelas joining us here in studio, the Chief Economist at RSM US… Joe: Jackson Hole does is it gives you a sense of what the Fed is thinking about, it allows you to project forward where rates are going to go and where Fed Policy is going to move. I think the fact that they’re talking about concentration of power signals that the economy is firing on all cylinders, but wages aren’t rising and they want to really begin to investigate what’s happening.
Cheddar, Trump Plans to Settle Trade Dispute with China by November, 08/17/2018: Are you optimistic that the US and China can mend their trade relationship? Joe Brusuelas: Yes, but the time table that’s being put forward is highly questionable. I just don’t see them getting it together this soon… I think what we’re going to get is another agreement to agree to talk about this a little bit more. Now that boosted the market today no doubt.
CNN Money, Macy's momentum may be starting to slow, Paul R. La Monica, 08/15/2018: The department store has been one of the hottest stocks on Wall Street lately. Its shares have more than doubled in the past 12 months... Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US, wrote in a report that the retail sales figures showed that the US economy "is firing on all cylinders."
The Washington Post, U.S. economy to grow at 3.1 percent in 2018, CBO says, Jeff Stein, 08/13/2018: The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 3.1 percent this year, as more government spending and tax cuts help propel an expansion, the Congressional Budget Office said Monday…“The wage models used to produce gains for workers are not working,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax and consulting firm. “The wage growth individuals want to see [is] just not going to happen.”
Forbes, Here's How Much This Trade War Might Cost Us, Kenneth Rapoza, 08/03/2018: Wars aren't free. That includes trade wars. The Trump Administration is currently fighting a trade war with China, but also has tariffs on goods coming from Russia and Brazil… "If the tariff policy is fully implemented, the costs will likely exceed $1.3 trillion with the risk of a much greater hit to the U.S. economy than many are currently anticipating, and a premature end to the business cycle," says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Economy Added 157,000 Jobs in July, 08/03/2018: Here's what economists are saying about the jobs report...Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP: "In our estimation, the slowing in the pace of hiring has more to do with the traditional seasonal noise and is not a signal of a change in the underlying trend growth in hiring which is closer to 224,000. We expect healthy revisions to the July gains over the next two months. While, the job gains are stout, we are growing increasingly concerned that average hourly earnings are simply not keeping up the pace of inflation."
Benzinga, Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged: 'Labor Market Has Continued To Strengthen', Elizabeth Balboa, 08/01/2018: After effecting a rate hike in June, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve maintained rates between 1.75 percent and 2 percent at its Aug. 1 meeting... Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, anticipates a 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate in September to bring the range between 2 percent and 2.25 percent. Accelerated economic growth and a drop in unemployment to 3.7 percent are expected to precede another hike in December that would bring the rate between 2.5 percent and 2.75 percent.
CNBC Nightly Business Report – Nightly Business Report – July 27, 2018 (appearance: 2:17 – 5:34), 07/27/2018: Tonight on Nightly Business Report, the economy grows at its fastest pace in four years but can it continue?... Let’s turn now to Joe Brusuelas for more on the economy. He is the chief economist with RSM. Is this type of growth sustainable? Brusuelas: Well not at 4.1% it’s not. You’re going to see the economy continue to grow at just under 3% probably for at least the next quarter or two and will pick up in the last quarter of the year and finish just above 3% for the entire year of 2018.
CNBC.com – Why Trump's goal of 3 percent economic growth actually is achievable and sustainable, Jeff Cox, 07/27/2018: Getting one quarter of breakout economic growth is easy: Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush did so on multiple occasions, only to see things fall back into the same pattern soon after…"The economy is on much better footing. However, you can see the impact of the trade war beginning to creep into the data," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "The good stuff is the consumer is on really solid footing right now."
Benzinga – GDP Notches Strongest Growth Since 2014, Elizabeth Balboa, 07/27/2018: Gross domestic product posted the strongest quarter of growth since 2014, with the second quarter’s 4.1-percent annual rate accelerating from the first quarter’s 2.2 percent, according to the Commerce Department’s initial estimates…The strength is seen to justify a rise in Federal Reserve rates, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP.
Yahoo!Finance – This week in Trumponomics: The economy booms, Rick Newman, 07/27/2018: President Trump got the big number he was looking for this week, when the government announced the economy grew by 4.1% in the second quarter…That’s leading some analysts to warn that good times may soon be here and gone. “The economy is not likely to experience a sustained period of four percent growth, much less three percent,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for investing firm RSM, wrote to clients.
Investing.com – Best U.S. Growth in Almost 4 Years Leaves the Fed Facing Trade Uncertainty, 07/27/2018: The second-quarter expansion in GDP showed the solid state of the American economy on Friday, but left economists questioning the stability of the numbers at hand, while offering little to change the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy…“(There was a) 13.3% increase in exports which were clustered in agriculture exports,” RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said. “Soy is the word of the day.”
The New York Times – Economy Hits a High Note, and Trump Takes a Bow, Ben Casselman, 07/27/2018: Tax cuts and federal spending are adding fuel to the already strong economy, putting the United States on a pace for its best year of growth in well over a decade…“We don’t want to overexaggerate the strength of the economy given the real risks that are being put in place by the policy choices,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM U.S.
The New York Times – Why Friday’s G.D.P. Number May Be a Size Too Big, Ben Casselman, 07/26/2018: Prepare to be excited about a blockbuster economic report on Friday morning — but not too excited…“We have yet to see any meaningful evidence of an increase” in investment, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM U.S. “That’s something that you can’t make a judgment on in one or two quarters. That’s something that you make a judgment on in two or three years.”
POLITICO – Morning Money, Ben White, 07/25/2018: More GDP Hype: Via Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US: “U.S. growth in the second quarter of 2018 will expand at 5.1 percent with risk to the upside to due to a host of special one-time factors that will likely not be easily replicated in coming quarters. “The combination of strong inventory building ahead of the holidays and an unusually large increase in net exports linked to foreign demand for domestic agriculture will likely somewhat overshadow the strong rebound of 3.2 percent in household spending and another strong increase in fixed business investment.
Financial Advisor Magazine, Why This Is A Stealth Bull Market, Jeffrey Saut, 07/16/2018: On CNBC last Friday, we stated that we have been in a stealth bull market…Moving on to some of last week’s economic reports, our friend Joe Brusuelas (Chief Economist of RSM) had this to say: While, the labor market remains historically tight the pace of U.S. inflation is now outpacing wage gains late in the business cycle. Inflation on a year ago basis is up 2.9 percent compared with the 2.7 percent gain in average hourly earnings amidst no gain in real average hourly earnings over the past year.
Marketplace, Small business is on a roll, Mitchell Hartman, 07/10/2018: The National Federation of Independent Business reports that its small-business optimism index fell 0.6 points in June to 107.2. . Nonetheless, the index remains near historic highs…Chalk that up in part to the Trump administration’s tax cuts, said Joe Brusuelas at consulting firm RSM. “They’ve seen their effective tax rate drop significantly, and that’s bolstered both optimism and activity,” he said.
Reuters, U.S. job growth seen strong in June, wages picking up, Lucia Mutikani, 07/06/2018: U.S. employers likely maintained a brisk pace of hiring in June while increasing wages for workers, which would reinforce expectations of robust economic growth in the second quarter and allow the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates…Economists expect the manufacturing sector to bear the brunt of the tit-for-tat tariffs, through a slowdown in hiring and capital expenditure. "It's hard to fathom how the robust manufacturing conditions will be sustained," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York.
Illinois Manufacturers' Association, One Step Closer to a Global Trade War, Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP is an IMA Member, 06/19/2018: What a difference a month makes! Effective June 1, four weeks after declaring trade spats on hold, the Trump administration slapped tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 15 percent on aluminum for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom—key U.S. trading partners—and promised to slap an additional $50 billion worth of tariffs on China beginning June 15. In our estimation, if fully implemented, these tariffs, in aggregate, will shave 0.2 percent from potential growth and put more than 2 million jobs at risk. This estimate may actually understate the true nature of the tariff impact due to uncertainty around likely retaliation by China, Canada and other G-7 trading partners.
Benzinga, Economists Weigh In on Interest Rate Hike, Elizabeth Balboa, 06/13/2018: The rate hike came as no surprise. The Federal Reserve was widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point pop after its Wednesday meeting... RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said the language signals the Fed “intends to tolerate temporary deviation away from its inflation target in the near term.”… “The upgrade to the summary of economic projections implies that the Fed recognizes it will soon face a monumental decision,” Brusuelas said.
The Times, Scottish scene: Enough commissions, reports and strategies — let’s see some real action, Colin Donald, 06/03/2018: The Sustainable Growth Commission (SGC) has been praised for abandoning in its latest report, published a week ago, the more specious claims served up to the Scottish people in the 2013 white paper Scotland’s Future…An example of nimbler thinking is presented by Shanker Singham, the director of the international trade and competition unit at the Institute of Economic Affairs, a free-market think tank. Singham, an authority on trade policy and the EU, and technicalities of the Brexit negotiations, is in Glasgow next week, on a panel with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist in the US for audit consultancy RSM and Labour MEP Catherine Stihler.
Birmingham Post, Liam Fox to Speak at Birmingham Conference, Tamlyn Jones, 05/23/2018: Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox will be the keynote speaker at an international business conference in Birmingham next month…Joining him on the line up of speakers are America’s ambassador to the UK Robert Wood Johnson and chief economist for financial services firm RSM Joseph Brusuelas…Mr. Brusuelas is a specialist in analysing US monetary policy, labour markets, fiscal policy, economic indicators and American consumers.
Global Banking & Finance Review, Trade Friction: A Primer on the United States and China, 05/10/2018: Trade friction represents the natural state of international economic affairs. While the benefits of free trade are unassailable, from time to time, distributional impacts to distribution caused by comparative advantage and specialisation move to the forefront of economic diplomacy. The U.S.-China trade spat marks the opening salvo in a period of increasing friction within the global trade system. A bipartisan consensus in Washington contends that China should be confronted over its international trade practices. That said, some alternative strategies to those being deployed by the Trump administration can avoid upsetting global asset markets, disrupting the flow of goods and risking escalation to a trade war.
The Wall Street Journal, WSJ Wealth Adviser Briefing: Taxes, Mooch, Wine, Sharon Nunn, 05/07/2018: Curated news and analysis for wealth advisers and their clients from WSJ reporters and columnists…Market Talk: Labor Dept data show the labor force participation rate dropping to 62.8% in April from 62.9% in March and 63.0% in February… To be sure, the rate for prime-age workers, 25-54-year-olds, also declined, but the “employment to population ratio of prime aged workers between 25-54 held steady at 79.2 percent which is a cyclical high,” RSM’s Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas noted.
The New York Times, Warren Buffett Really Likes Apple’s Shares: DealBook Briefing, Andrew Ross Sorkin, 05/04/2018: Here’s a look at how Wall Street economists are reacting to April’s jobs report... Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM US: “The U.S. labor market has tightened to the point where firms are simply having tremendous difficulty finding qualified and available workers which is why the American unemployment rate has declined to 3.9 percent and likely on its way to 3.7 percent later this year. Once the late cycle fiscal boost that is in train into the economy in the second half of 2018, there is a significant risk that the unemployment rate will decline at a much faster pace which will present a problem for the Federal Reserve that will likely want to tighten rates a modestly quicker pace even as the US yield curve flattens.”
USA Today, First time since 2000: The pros and cons of US unemployment rate falling under 4%, Paul Davidson, 05/04/2018: The unemployment rate has slipped below 4% for the first time since 2000, and that sounds like good news for the economy…"The U.S. labor market has tightened to the point where firms are having tremendous difficulty finding qualified and available workers," says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas.
USA Today, Jobs: Unemployment rate falls to 3.9%, employers add 164,000 jobs in April, Paul Davidson, 05/04/2018: The labor market bounced back at least modestly in April as employers added 164,000 jobs and unemployment fell below 4% for the first time in 17 years, easing concerns that trade tensions and worker shortages may be crimping hiring…"The topline gain of 164,000 jobs is well within what we have thought would be a slower pace of job creation as the United States heads towards the late innings of the current business cycle," says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas.
The Washington Post, Unemployment rate falls to 3.9 percent as U.S. economy adds 164,000 jobs, Danielle Paquette, 05/04/2018: The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent — the lowest point since 2000, federal economists reported Friday…A demographic shift partly explains why employers are having trouble finding talent. Baby boomers, which today represent a third of the workforce, are retiring in droves, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an international consulting firm. Younger workers aren’t replacing them.
CEO Today, US Vs China Trade War: Who Does It Hurt?, 04/30/2018: While not in a trade war as of yet, both oppositions in the US vs China tariff tension have given warnings and escalated hostility. If a war of sorts were to pass, who would be afflicted, and what would it do for the economy?... Additionally, Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM International highlights the hidden victims of the US/China trade war.
Boston Business Journal, Prepare your company for blockchain business beyond bitcoin, Joe Brusuelas, 04/23/2018: Blockchain is best known as the platform supporting the cryptocurrency bitcoin, but the technology’s most far- reaching impact is developing quietly behind the scenes. Blockchain technology allows for the recording, execution and auditing of contracts in real time on distributed ledgers. It can be adopted to asset sales, payments, loans and contracts of all types. Bitcoin’s value could fall to zero and blockchain would still disrupt industry transactions. Here’s how. By eliminating the need for trusted third parties, blockchain continues the internet’s elimination of middlemen.
Marketplace, Moderate job growth in March: aberration, or sign of the future?, Mitchell Hartman, 04/06/18: The March jobs report shows there were 103,000 jobs added in the month, though many economists expected something closer to an additional 175,000…Economist Joseph Brusuelas at consulting firm RSM: The labor market has been tight – over the next 10 years, there’s going to be a shortage of around 8.5 million workers, primarily due to the demographic transition we’re going through as the baby boomer retires.” And what does that mean in terms of future job growth? “About 80,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate stable.
The Wall Street Journal, March Jobs Report: Everything You Need to Know – “ Reactions: Payback for Previous Strength and Weather Disruptions, Ben Eisen, 04/06/18: Economists appear to be largely looking past weakness in the March payrolls report, noting that strength in the previous months was unsustainable. Weather also appeared to play a role, economists said. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist, RSM US LLP: "For the past several months the labor market has been on fire, growing at a pace of 211,100 over the past six months, which given where the economy is in the business cycle amidst a tight labor market is simply not sustainable. In our estimation, seasonal issues aside, investors should get ready to observe more employment reports such as the tepid March estimate."
CNNMoney, US-China trade war fears: How bad could this get?, Patrick Gillespie, 04/04/18: The tariffs that China and the United States threatened this week could harm both sides. But they're not apocalyptic. Not yet…"What's next is we're going to see a tit-for-tat retaliation," says Joseph Brusuelas, chief US economist at RSM, a global accounting and consulting firm. "This is a classic lose-lose proposition, no one wins."
BNN, China's tariff retaliation against U.S. hitting Trump's base hardest: Economist, 04/03/2018: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, joins BNN for a look at U.S.-China trade tensions and the outlook for North America's small and mid-sized businesses. As the U.S.-China fight intensifies, Brusuelas says that U.S. steel tariffs, Chinese retaliation, and Trump's threat of more duties on China, all add up to significant economic drag for the U.S.
Privcap, The ‘Stunning’ North American Energy Network, 03/26/2018: Withdrawal from NAFTA and the impact on the global energy sector. Based on volume 38 of RSM’s The Real Economy report, available for download here. Participants: Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.
The Guardian, Paper tigers? US and China in dispute over tariffs but trade war looks remote, Edward Helmore, 03/25/2018: Will two tribes go to war?... “China is reacting mildly to a set of tariffs that have largely been rolled back for almost everyone except China,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with the financial advisory company RSM. “Trade friction is a natural state of affairs in the international economy and we’re engaged in a spat.”
Middle Market Growth, Joseph Brusuelas of RSM on Trade, Tariffs and China, 03/23/2018: This episode of the Middle Market Growth Conversations podcast features Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM. He spoke with MMG Editor Kathryn Mulligan by phone about the fast-moving developments with proposed tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, as well as on imports from China, and their impact on middle-market businesses.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce's Above the Fold, Tax Reform Boosts Middle Market Business Confidence to an All-Time High, Sean Hackbarth, 03/23/2018: It’s a bird, it’s a plane… No, it’s the ever-escalating RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI), which reached a new all-time high in the first quarter of 2018…“The U.S. economy is growing well above its long-term trend of 1.5% amid a tightening labor market that’s fueling wage growth,” said Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP chief economist.
The Washington Post, In a U.S.-China trade war, Trump voters likely get hurt the most, Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam, 03/22/2018: Politicians, economists and executives agree China isn't playing fair on trade… “A tariff is an extremely inelegant tax. It’s like trying to kill a tsetse fly on your desk with an anvil. You might kill the fly but you usually end up totaling the desk & damaging the floor,” tweeted Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM.
Inc., Middle Market Companies Are Doing Great...So Why Aren't They Investing?, Gene Marks, 03/21/2018: Middle market companies--those businesses loosely defined as having revenues of at least tens of millions of dollars per year, but less than a billion--are not only having a great year, they are looking forward to even better times to come. That's the conclusion from this quarter's U.S. Middle Market Business Index from accounting firm RSM US LLP and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The index, which is based on the responses of more than 700 middle market executives from earlier this year, has hit an all-time high…"This quarter's findings correspond nicely with the direction of fundamental hard data, soft data, and anecdotal evidence we're seeing nationwide," Joe Brusuelas, RSM US LLP's chief economist, said in a press release.
The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Shot: 21-Mar-18, Lev Borodovsky, 03/21/2018: The United States: The US could be running a $2 trillion annual budget deficit in less than a decade. That’s a lot of new debt for the market to absorb each year… The Middle Market Business Index also shows substantial improvements. Source: RSM, U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Privcap, The Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from NAFTA, 03/16/2018: An interview with Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, on the impact of U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA.
Middle Market Growth, The Middle Market Reading List (page 12), 03/01/2018: MMG editors asked leading economists and business leaders featured on the Middle Market Growth Conversations podcast about what they’re reading…Joseph Brusuelas Chief Economist, RSM US LLP: “Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing our Digital Future” By Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson. Brusuelas’ take: It’s about the evolution of developed economics. From, say, 1875 to 2014, the economy was essentially organized around this idea of mind.
Middle Market Growth, Middle-Market Public Policy Roundup, Ben Marsico, 03/16/2018: This week’s roundup looks at the progress of a bipartisan regulatory relief bill that passed the Senate and is on its way to the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, a trade war sparked by President Trump’s tariffs looks increasingly unlikely…Interested in what causes a trade “spat” vs. a trade war? RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas wrote an article explaining the differences.
The New York Times, Will Goldman’s Blankfein Depart by the End of the Year?: Dealbook Briefing, 03/09/2018: Economists and analysts react to the jobs report…Joe Brusuelas, RSM US: “The job market continues to sizzle as the economy is in the early stages of absorbing a late cycle fiscal boost that will support a growth rate well above the long-term trend in 2018. The 313,000 job gain is more than triple that necessary to meet the demand of new entrants into the work force, which if it sustained will continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate. This will not be lost among an F.O.M.C. that leans hawkish in 2018 and points toward an increasing probability that the central bank will hike rates four times this year…”
The Washington Post, The economy added 313,000 jobs in February, beating expectations, Danielle Paquette, 03/09/2018: The U.S. economy added 313,000 jobs in February, smashing expectations, according to Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics…"The 313,000 job gain is more than triple that necessary to meet the demand of new entrants into the work force, which if it sustained will continue to put downward pressure on the unemployment rate," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, an international consulting firm.
Axios, Hiring surge: U.S. economy adds 313,000 jobs in February, Alayna Treene, Steve LeVine, 03/09/2018: The U.S. added 313,000 jobs last month, the most since mid-2016 and far higher than the 200,000-235,000 consensus forecast, according to the Labor Department's latest figures…"This labor market is on fire and wage gains are in train," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax consulting firm.
The New York Times, A Trade Skirmish is Underway. That Doesn’t Mean a Trade War is Near., Neil Irwin, 03/08/2018: Many events of the last week have had the ominous undertones of a destructive global trade war…Joe Brusuelas, the chief economist at the accounting firm RSM, sketched out what a true trade war would look like. “The first indicator that a trade war has begun would be the announced intention to withdraw from, or abrogate, current trade treaty arrangements,” Mr. Brusuelas wrote recently.
MarketWatch, Why a full-blown Trump trade war won’t happen, Jeffry Bartash, 03/07/2018: Donald Trump’s plan to impose big tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum has spawned lots of talk about a destabilizing global trade war that’s an echo of the Great Depression, but the White House move is better characterized, for now, as a mere skirmish…Economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM LLP said he figures the new tariffs on imported steel could force U.S. customers to fork over an additional $9 billion–plus. Even if 10,000 steel jobs were saved or created, the cost to the U.S. economy would be more than $900,000 per job.
U.S. News and World Report, World Bracing for Risk of Trump's Trade War, Josh Boak, 03/02/2018: President Donald Trump's plan to slap taxes on steel and aluminum imports was branded Friday as "absolutely unacceptable" by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, the United States' biggest foreign source of both metals…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultant RSM, sees three possible stages in any trade war.
CNBC's Nightly Business Report, Nightly Business Report – March 1, 2018, 03/01/2018: Tonight on Nightly Business Report, Washington rattled Wall Street. Stocks fall sharply after the White House promised steep tariffs on steel and aluminum…Let’s turn now to our two guests for more on the markets and the economy in light of this news today…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM.
Benzinga, Height Securities: Concrete Proposal Unlikely To Emerge From Trump's Tariff Meeting With Steel, Aluminum Execs, Elizabeth Balboa, 03/01/2018: President Donald Trump will meet with steel and aluminum executives Thursday, leading some to speculate an import tariff announcement is imminent, according to Reuters…RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said tariff talk should not be considered positive.
CNBC, Market awaits first Fed report after Yellen's hand-off to Powell, Jeff Cox, 02/20/2018: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell already has had his first stern test from the market. Soon, he'll face another one on Capitol Hill. "The market will be posed to move off any hints with respect to the future path of rates and upward revisions," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
The Washington Post, GOP senator suggests we need fewer immigrants because robots are coming, Heather Long, 02/20/2018: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) last week helped kill the bipartisan immigration deal in Congress...“Robots will create more jobs.” Brusuelas points out that many of the fastest-growing jobs today, such as “user design” and “cloud engineers,” weren't around a decade ago. We like to talk about how robots kill jobs, but we tend to talk a lot less about how many other jobs are being created in the economy.
Privcap, Michigan Will be Hit Hardest by a NAFTA Withdrawal, 02/20/2018: Privcap interviews Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM on how withdrawal from NAFTA will harm Michigan and other states hardest hit from the recession. Based on volume 38 of RSM’s The Real Economy report, available for download here.
Privcap, The Impact of U.S. Withdrawal from NAFTA, 02/16/2018: Privcap interviews Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM on the impact of U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA.Newsweek
Newsweek, What is a stock market correction? Here's what you need to know, Ryan Sit, 02/10/18: The stock market has been backsliding this week, erasing 2018's gains and recording the two largest single-day declines in points ever…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the investment firm RSM in New York, said investors see the Fed's plan as the "end of the era of easy money."
CNBC, You don't go from inflation being too low to it being a big problem..., 02/09/18: CNBC Senior Contributor Larry Kudlow; Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal; and Joe Brusuelas, RSM U.S. chief economist, discuss the potential impact of rising rates on the markets and overall economy.
Yahoo Finance Market Movers, Stocks continue to waver, Trump signs budget to keep gov't open, 02/09/18: Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous, Jared Blikre, Rick Newman and Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM discuss the big stories of the day. Alexis also talks with Brian O’Kelley, CEO at AppNexus, about advertisers and the Olympics.
Yahoo Finance, Yahoo Finance Answers: When did the stock market last act like this?, Rick Newman, 02/09/18: Amid the market turmoil that has suddenly reared up, investors have a lot of questions. One of the questions the Yahoo Finance audience recently put to us: When was the last time the stock market behaved like this?... “This isn’t over,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at financial firm RSM told Yahoo Finance on Feb. 9. “While the worst may be behind us, we should expect several days if not several weeks of more mind-bending volatility.”
Yahoo Finance, Government debt is exploding. Here’s the danger, Rick Newman, 02/09/18: The Trump administration is testing just how much government debt is too much… “Too much government debt crowds out private lending,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at investing firm RSM. “The private sector has to pay a lot more, it slows the pace of investment and hiring, and you get slower growth. The governing party just added $3 trillion to what the kids are going to have to pay back, and the kids have no idea what’s happening to them.”
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Stocks Dive as Investors Brace for More Volatility, Akane Otani and Jon Sindreu, 02/08/18: The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 600 points Thursday as government bond yields touched multiyear highs, and investors continued to grapple with a recent pickup in volatility…“I’m definitely in the camp that says this is a healthy correction,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, who remains optimistic and hasn’t changed any of his forecasts after the rout.
The Wall Street Journal, Strong Jobs Report Brings a New Problem: Labor Scarcity, Ben Eiser, 02/02/2018: Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM US LLP, points to a concern that hasn't gotten much airing recently: are there enough people to fill the open positions in the workforce? Here's what he says in a post-report client note: "With little to no slack left in the economy, the major challenge for both policymakers and firm managers is where will businesses find the workers to meet growing demand in a new economy increasingly organized around science, mathematics and technology in a tightening labor market.
The New York Times, Treasury Rout Hammers Stocks: DealBook Briefing: Wage growth picks up, 02/02/2018: The United States economy added 200,000 jobs last month, above the 180,000 Wall Street economists had expected…Economist reactions: Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US LLP: “Given that there is roughly one worker per job opening in the economy, the narrative inside the labor market is rapidly shifting from that of triumph to that of concern amongst firms of all sizes over how to fill positions among labor scarcity. Due to misaligned immigration policies during a time of economic acceleration and the lack of those that are willing and able to work, firms are about to enter a period of rapid integration of technology as a substitute for labor to avoid growing bottlenecks in production and the provision of services.”
The New York Times, Job and Wage Gains Deliver a Promising Start for the Year, Ben Casselman, 02/02/2018: As the unemployment rate has fallen in recent months and the economy has roared, one central question has bedeviled the American job market: Where is the wage growth?…“People who are marginally employable suddenly become highly employable in a period like this,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM, a financial consulting firm.
CNN Money, America gets a raise: Wage growth fastest since 2009, Patrick Gillespie, 02/02/2018: America finally got a raise. The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, and wages grew at the fastest pace in eight years. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000, the Labor Department said Friday.… Friday's numbers show 2018 "will be a year of rising wages and the tightest labor market in over a generation," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at RSM, an accounting and consulting firm.
Washington Post, Two areas where Trump’s economy is better than Obama’s, Heather Long, 02/02/2018: The political spin on the economy right now goes like this: Republicans say the United States was in terrible shape until Donald Trump took office and then the economy went from blah to boom. Democrats say “Thanks, Obama.” They argue former president Barack Obama deserves all the credit for pulling the economy out of the Great Recession, and Trump is just riding his coattails… The reality is somewhere in between. “Trump was dealt a good hand by Obama, but Trump has also kept the momentum going,” says economist Joseph Brusuelas of accounting firm RSM. Brusuelas said he believes it is “juvenile” to have endless debates over who gets credit because “the Federal Reserve and the business cycle have also played large roles in the recovery.”
Off-Price Retailing Magazine (page 61), 2018 Off-Price Retail Predictions, 02/01/2018: How will the evolving buying habits affect the future of off-price retail? … “The way online retailers are set up, the direction and intensity in which artificial intelligence and machine learning is beginning to be integrated into online platforms provides an existential challenge for the off-price industry.” Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.
CNBC, Fed leaves rates unchanged but gives more aggressive inflation expectations, Jeff Cox, 01/31/2018: In Janet Yellen's final meeting as Fed chair, the central bank decided Wednesday against increasing its benchmark interest rate but indicated it expects inflation pressures to heat up as the year moves on…"We had a hawkish hold here," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "What that growth forecast implies is there are upward revisions coming to growth and likely a change in the balance of risks due to inflation moving toward the central bank's target."