Joe Brusuelas in the News
Recent interviews and contributions featuring RSM's chief economist
Joe Brusuelas is frequently asked to speak with reporters or provide commentary on the outlook for the middle market economy, including how proposed or recently enacted policy change will impact middle market businesses.
Read highlights from some of those recent conversations below. See our full media archives for more.
Seeking Alpha, June PCE data isn't likely to change Jerome Powell's stance on 'transitory' inflation, Liz Kiesche, 07/30/2021: The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, an inflation gauge that Federal Reserve officials keep a close eye on, increased 3.5% Y/Y in June, its fastest rate since 1991. But don't expect the central bank to take any action soon…. RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas doesn't expect any imminent actions from the Fed. "In the absence of persistent inflation, we expect the FOMC to maintain the federal funds rate at the zero bound until full employment is reached for all stratifications of society," he wrote in a recent note.
CNN Business, US economy just posted the largest jump in growth since 2020, Anneken Tappe, 07/29/2021: The US economy in the second quarter expanded at a slower rate than expected but still at its fastest pace since last fall, growing at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 6.5%. In terms of real gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — the economy has now recovered in that has grown bigger than its pre-pandemic size…This should be soothing for anyone worried the economy might overheat amid unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy support, noted RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas. Also picked up in MSN, Action News Now and The World News, among others.
The Washington Post, U.S. economy grew annual 6.5 percent between April and June, marking full recovery from the pandemic, Rachel Siegel, Andrew Van Dam, 07/29/2021: The U.S. economy was officially back and fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic as of June, although a recent surge in cases could bring new uncertainty….The drag caused by low inventory in the second quarter could leave “quite the tail wind to growth going forward,” especially as supply chains have time to clear, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. For example, Brusuelas said he ordered a German car in mid-March, knowing there would be a wait, given a shortage of microchips and other parts in the auto supply chain. His car didn’t ship until this week in the third quarter. “That in a nutshell is a good description of the first half of 2021,” he said. “It’s lumber. It’s drywall. It’s chips. As the supply-chain constraints ease, those bottlenecks clear, and you’ll get a surge in industrial production and residential investment.” Similar articles in GOBankingRates and Yahoo! Finance.
The Hill, Economic growth rose to 6.5 percent annual rate in second quarter, Sylvan Lane, 07/29/2021: U.S. economic growth stayed strong in the second quarter as rising vaccinations and a return to pre-pandemic activities unleashed a wave of pent-up demand, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.5 percent from April to June, the Commerce Department said, slightly higher than the 6.3 percent grate from the first quarter…. The long-awaited pivot to services demand began in the second quarter of 2021," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM.
Benzinga, Q2 Growth 'Nothing Short Of Virtuous': Economist, Sam Corey, 07/29/2021: The coronavirus pandemic that began in 2020 and is persisting today has led many investors to hold poor market expectations. But maybe they shouldn’t be so pessimistic. What Happened: That’s according to a new RSM report stating the U.S. economy grew by over 6% in the second quarter of 2021, making the start of a business cycle as good as things were prior to the pandemic’s onset. In fact, this last quarter’s growth is the best second-quarter growth recorded since 1983. “The composition of growth in the second quarter of the year was nothing short of virtuous,” RSM economist Joe Brusuelas wrote in the report.
Politico, Biden’s economic gains come with newer worries about the future, Ben White, 07/29/2021: The economy expanded by 6.5 percent in the second quarter of the year, a weaker-than-expected performance that underscores the forces dragging on growth as the U.S. struggles to recover from the crippling Covid-19 pandemic…. “Rising risks around the Delta variant are likely to push full reopening of the economy into 2022,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM, which advises middle-market companies. “We as economists prematurely declared victory over the pandemic and we are not there yet. And it’s likely to be sometime into next year when we possibly reach that point."
City A.M., Weaker economic backdrop presents fresh headaches for Fed, Jack Barnett, 07/28/2021: Today’s Federal Open Market Committee announcements come amid mounting concerns that the rapid rise in Covid cases could dampen the global economic recovery. This backdrop presents a different set of problems for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to when he last spoke in June. Recovery prospects are still good, but have tempered…. “It is essential that the Fed, once it decides to announce its tapering operations, provides clear and concise forward guidance,” warns Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist.
Seeking Alpha, Nasdaq rallies, S&P 500 flat with little new from Fed; Dow Jones slips, Kim Khan, 07/28/2021: The stock market took today's Fed decision in stride and returned its attention back to earnings. But the bond market continued its stop-and-start moves as traders debated the finer points of the FOMC statement and Fed chief Jerome Powell's answers at the press conference…."Powell notes that Treasury & MBS purchases affect financial conditions in very similar ways implying that the Fed likely to taper them simultaneously," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S. tweeted. "Expect this to be a persistent debate through the end of the year."
Cheddar News, Powell Bought the Fed More Time to Learn About Delta Variant, Says Economist, 07/28/2021: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his latest remarks regarding the state of the economy. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., joined Cheddar’s Closing Bell to break down Powell’s remarks, noting that it was largely a status quo statement except for what he noted as a possible longer time frame before tapering asset purchases. "The major takeaway I think today is, both from the statement and the presser, the Fed bought time to learn more information about the evolution of the delta variant and its risk to the economy," he said.
Yahoo! Finance, The ‘zoom economy’ is now part of corporate America: economist, 07/26/2021: RSM Chief Economist, Joe Brusuelas, joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and how the meeting will hit important topics that could affect the market like the delta variant, inflation, and the pace of reopening.
Yahoo! Finance, FOMC preview: Fed to keep cards close to the chest on taper, 07/26/2021: The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will slow its asset purchases as the U.S. economy continues to recover. But the Fed has not offered any clues as to when it will begin “tapering” its so-called quantitative easing program, which is currently absorbing about $80 billion in U.S Treasuries and about $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities each month… “We might get a little bit of talk around taper,” RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance Monday. “But my sense is that the rising risks around the Delta variant, which is going to push down growth forecasts, provides the Fed with a little bit more room to delay the inevitable.”
Politico, Here comes the Fed, Ben White, Aubree Eliza Weaver, 07/26/2021: Here comes the Fed — All of Wall Street’s eyes and ears will be on the Federal Reserve and Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. for the latest statement on interest rates and discussion of the eventual wind down of asset purchases as the economy continues to recover and inflation hits fairly uncomfortable levels. Nothing is going to change on rates….RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “Should the Fed mention the Delta variant in the statement or should … Powell go out of his way to identify it as a material risk to the economic outlook, we could see the market re-test recent lows in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield.”
CNBC, The rapid growth the U.S. economy has seen is about to hit a wall, Jeff Cox, 07/23/2021: The U.S. economy is expected to post another roaring growth spurt in the second quarter, before a slow and steady dose of reality starts to sink in. Keeping up such a rapid pace of growth will be difficult in an economy that has long been held back by an aging population and lackluster productivity… .“What we see is an economy growing robustly above trend albeit at a slower pace through 2023,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “Absent any productivity-enhancing policy support, we eventually will move back to trend because there’s not much we can do about the demographic headwinds, which will eventually drag growth back to the long-term trend.” Also picked up in MSN Money.
Benzinga, Rise In Jobless Claims Reflects 'Seasonal Distortion': Economist, Sam Corey, 07/22/2021: The week of July 17 wasn’t as sweet as July 10 for workers. The new weekly unemployment insurance claims were at 419,000 — an increase of 51,000 from the week prior, according to the Department of Labor. This was the first-time jobless claims were above 400,000 in four weeks. What Happened: Although the rise was not pleasant, RSM Economist Joseph Brusuelas is not terribly concerned with the rise in claims. Because the labor market is tight, it should be expected the increase is “just seasonal distortion around the traditional July 4 holiday,” he wrote on his blog. He anticipates the rise will abate as the summer fades into fall.
CNN Business, Drama over the debt ceiling is the last thing America's economy needs, Matt Egan, 07/22/2021: America's road to economic recovery is littered with obstacles, beginning with soaring inflation and the rapidly spreading Covid-19 Delta variant. Now political bickering in Washington is looming as yet another hurdle. If Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling, the federal government will likely run out of cash by October or November, according to the Congressional Budget Office… "The last thing the economy needs is an artificial crisis," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Also picked up in The World News and CNN International, among others.
CNBC, The Exchange, 07/19/2021: We have growing uncertainty around the health of the economy as the delta variant soaks investor fears you combine with the inflation head winds, what does it mean for the recovery our GDP expectations? Steve Liesmann is here with the details on the latest update…. Joe Brusuelas from RSM says, “we expect American households flush with cash and rising wages to steam through rising prices on the back of supply that will soon begin to ease." Also picked up in CNBC’s Squawk on the Street.
The Wall Street Journal, Red-Hot U.S. Economy Expected to Cool From Here, Sarah Chaney Cambon, David Harrison, 07/18/2021: The U.S. economy’s 2021 growth surge likely peaked in the spring, but a strong expansion is expected to continue into next year, says economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Widespread business reopenings, rising vaccination rates and a big infusion of government pandemic aid this spring helped propel rapid gains in consumer spending—the economy’s main driver. But that burst of economic growth is starting to slow, economists say… After rising steadily since the fall, yields on 10-year Treasury notes have dipped slightly over the past three months as investors factor in the potential for weaker growth, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Benzinga, June Food And Retail Sales Rise Less Than 1%: What You Need To Know, Sam Corey, 07/16/2021: Despite some caution around inflation, headlines on the economy remain optimistic. Monthly sales for retail and food transactions in June were up $621.3 billion or 0.6%, according to recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. Total sales for the period between April and June 2021 were up 31.5% from the same period a year ago. The Good News: RSM Economist Joe Brusuelas said the overall economy is running hot, as employment is steadily increasing, wages are rising and savings accounts are growing more robust. “The one thing that stands out inside the June retail sales is not so much the topline growth of 0.6% but the decline of 2% in motor vehicles and parts did not drag down overall demand, he wrote in an email to Benzinga.
Benzinga, Why More Government Spending On Science, Technology Research Could Be Ahead, Sam Corey, 07/14/2021: In the last four decades, the prevailing economic wisdom has emphasized tax cuts and low government spending, allowing the free market to solve most economic problems. But the Biden administration is looking to change that… In a paper titled, “The Rebirth of Industrial Policy in the United States,” RSM economists Joe Brusuelas and Ethan Schmidt note a number of spaces where government investment could be used wisely, including the public health sector, in supply chains, research and development and in creating new growth models.
Washington Post, Prices rise 5.4 percent in June over last year, largest spike since 2008, as questions mount over whether inflation will be here to stay, Rachel Siegel, 07/13/2021: Prices rose 5.4 percent in June compared to a year ago, marking the large spike since 2008 as the pandemic-battered economy regains its footing and questions build over how long this steady climb in inflation will last. Inflation has been on a steep rise for about four months as the recovery gains steam, President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package revs up the economy and consumer demand rebounds much faster than supply chains can catch up….“Chair Powell is going to have to further clarify and provide a definition of what transitory is to a public who is not sensitive to the ebb and flow of data,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “He needs to talk to them about where they live.”
TD Ameritrade, Outcomes Of The FOMC Minutes, 07/08/2021: Tapering is now in play, but we are uncertain about the timing and the magnitude, says Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM. He discusses his takeaways from the FOMC minutes. He talks about treasury yields from the FVX, TNX, and TYX as well as key economic data points to follow. He also mentions the housing and job markets.
CoStar, Hotel Occupancy Slips, Biden Looks at Shipping Prices, New Jobless Claims Tick Up, Richard Lawson, 07/08/2021: Many travelers hit the road and the air leading up to the Fourth of July, but it didn’t push U.S. hotel occupancy higher. Instead, occupancy fell back, suggesting that a hotel stay wasn’t in the plan for many… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist for accounting consulting firm RSM US, however, took a different view of the latest data, writing in a blog post that the Labor Department’s report “continues to imply that this policy shift has not been decisive in sending people back to work.” Brusuelas wrote that the data “shows that ending the benefits was almost surely not part of June’s gain of 850,000 jobs, and we do not think it will play a meaningful role in the robust employment gains we expect this summer.”
The New York Times, Rising Oil and Gas Prices Add to U.S. Economic Challenges, Ben Casselman, Clifford Krauss, 07/06/2021: As the U.S. economy struggles to emerge from its pandemic-induced hibernation, consumers and businesses have encountered product shortages, hiring difficulties and often conflicting public health guidance, among other challenges…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM, said oil prices of $80 or even $100 a barrel didn’t concern him. Not until prices top $120 a barrel would he start to worry seriously about the economic impact, he said. “The world has changed,” Mr. Brusuelas said. “The risks aren’t what they once were." Also picked up in The Seattle Times.
The Hill, Five takeaways from the June jobs report, Sylvan Lane, 07/02/2021: The employment report for June showed the labor market heating up as the summer began with employers adding 850,000 jobs. While it wasn’t a pre-Fourth of July fireworks show, Friday’s numbers from the Labor Department showed the U.S. economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic accelerating with a long road still ahead… “This combination of job generation and workers returning is a good thing and illustrates that the growing confidence of those looking for work at higher wages is well-placed,” said RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, adding that the leisure and hospitality gain “should ease fears that government policy is inhibiting the return of workers to the labor force.”
Associated Press, US adds a solid 850,000 jobs as economy extends its gains, Christopher Rugaber, 07/02/2021: In an encouraging burst of hiring, America’s employers added 850,000 jobs in June, well above the average of the previous three months and a sign that companies may be having an easier time finding enough workers to fill open jobs… “That underscores the growing bargaining power of labor,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a tax advisory firm. “There’s increasing confidence that they’re going to get better jobs at better wages as the U.S. economy expands." Also picked up in U.S. News & World Report and ABC News.
Benzinga, What To Make Of The Latest Jobs Report: 'It's A Mixed Picture', Sam Corey, 07/02/2021: Total payroll employment rose by 850,000 in June, according to Friday's jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The most notable gains occurred in the leisure, hospitality, education, professional and retail industries… What The Jobs Numbers Mean: While some people are still hesitant to return to work because of the pandemic, individuals are still coming back — and at a relatively fast clip — compared with the previous recession, according to RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas.
Politico, Beware a big (or small) ADP private payrolls report, Ben White, 06/30/2021: Beware a big ADP number — ADP private payrolls today at 8:15 a.m. are expected to come in around 515K. But ADP has overshot the official number by a lot in each of the last two months. So it could come in huge again but NOT necessarily mean that Friday’s official number will be a blockbuster… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect a total change in employment of 750,000 and a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6% in the U.S. June employment report. “The major economic narrative to emerge from the summer hiring reports will likely be that consumers are flush with cash and pivoting to demand services, which will bolster overall hiring during the summer months. Thus, the June employment report will likely reflect a surge in hiring to prepare for what will be a monumental release of pent-up demand for services over the next three months.”
CNN Business, Stocks surge after Biden announces infrastructure agreement, Anneken Tappe, 06/24/2021: Stocks rallied Thursday after President Joe Biden announced a bipartisan agreement on an infrastructure deal. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) hit new record highs and the Dow (INDU) climbed more than 320 points… "In my estimation this agreement represents a rare opportunity to lift the long term growth path of the economy, productivity and the living standards of individual Americans," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. Similar articles also picked up in Politico and Erie News Now.
Reuters, U.S. labor market healing; businesses boost spending as profits rebound, Lucia Mutikani, 06/24/2021: Fewer Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week as the labor market steadily recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic amid a reopening economy, but a dearth of willing workers could hinder faster job growth in the near term… “The fits and starts in the labor market should be expected and imply that a premature withdrawal of support for the unemployed would be a policy error that will reduce overall economic activity,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance, MarketScreener and Investing.com.
The Wall Street Journal, Downward U.S. Jobless Claims Trend Stalls Out, Amara Omeokwe, 06/24/2021: Worker filings for jobless benefits last week held nearly steady at 411,000, stalling at a level reached in recent weeks as the labor market gradually recovers. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial unemployment claims, a proxy for layoffs, moved lower last week to 411,000 from an upwardly revised 418,000 the prior week, when claims rose… Competition among employers for new hires is shifting bargaining power to workers, also likely affecting the rate of job creation, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “That may be resulting in a slower-than-expected pace in the improvement because workers can now be a little more picky, a little more choosy about where they want to work.”
Marketplace, The economy seems great for some people, dire for others. What’s going on?, Mitchell Hartman, 06/24/2021: Care for some economic whiplash, anyone? Here’s what we mean: Thursday we got the final reading on first-quarter gross domestic product — up 6.4%. That’s a good chunk of economic growth, with personal consumption up by double digits… “It’s understandable that those without work are somewhat confused,” said Joe Brusuelas, at the RSM consulting firm. “They’re hearing reports of perhaps the economy expanding by 10% this quarter. Yet jobless claims appear to have stalled out.” Stalled out with 11 million people still on federal emergency pandemic unemployment aid. “We’re learning a lot more about the depth and breadth of the American labor market, how many people are out of work, and that’s because we expanded those unemployment benefits to nontraditional workers or gig workers,” Brusuelas said.
NextAdvisor, With Rates Still Under 3%, the Refinance Window Is Still Open. Ask These Two Questions Before You Act, Jason Stauffer, 06/21/2021: Mortgage rates dropped slightly this week—and have only touched 3% once in the past nine weeks. Last week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticked down to 2.93%, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey. While today’s mortgage interest rates are higher than recent all-time lows, they are still exceptionally low… “It’s a good time to be an American consumer, perhaps the best in recent memory,” says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, an audit, tax, and consulting firm. “One should not get lost in a haze of ‘I didn’t do this last year.’”
Benzinga, Economist Reacts To Flattening Yield Curve, Wayne Duggan, 06/18/2021: The Federal Reserve shifted market expectations in a significant way on Wednesday with its updated dot plot projections and commentary related to inflation. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) is down 2% since Tuesday’s close, and the yield curve in U.S. Treasuries has flattened significantly… Market Fallout: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said Fed credibility is at the heart of the market action in recent days. Similar articles also featured in Markets Insider and Fintech Zoom.
MarketWatch, U.S. jobless claims hit a speed bump in latest week, Greg Robb, 06/17/2021: U.S. initial jobless claims rose 37,000 to 412,000 in the week ended June 12. This is the highest level in a month. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast new claims to fall to a seasonally adjusted 365,000… “The top-line increase remains well below the 529,200 13-week moving average within the series, implying that conditions for further improvement remain intact. That being said, the recent six consecutive weeks of declines in the top line number are likely more of an anomaly than reality. The move back to full employment is not going to be a one-way street and will be full of twists and turns as the time series moves back toward the 200,000-230,000 range that prevailed prior to the pandemic,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit firm RSM. Also picked up in Morningstar.
TD Ameritrade, Inflation Expectations Ahead Of FOMC Announcement, 06/16/2021: Joe Brusuelas and Marcus Moore discuss expectations ahead of the June Fed meeting. Brusuelas said formal talk on tapering will not happen until the Kansas City Fed's symposium in late August. Moore notes that we're likely to hear from the Fed that inflation is transitory, with a new average inflation mandate to allow inflation to run hotter longer.
Cyprus Mail, US Fed mulls interest rate rise in near term; ‘taper tantrum’ could follow, 06/15/2021: US Federal Reserve officials are expected to begin debate on tapering the Fed’s monthly asset purchases as soon as this week’s policy meeting, but the central bank is unlikely to publicly reveal that plan until August or September, economists and analysts said… “While the Fed will surely discuss the ideas around tapering at the meeting, it will not appear as a formal policy objective until the September statement,” echoed Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP.
Yahoo! Finance, Expert: There's a 'great wage revolt' among restaurant workers, Denitsa Tsekova, 06/14/2021: As the economy reopens and workers return to their jobs or find new ones, low-wage restaurant workers are coming back with more bargaining power, according to one expert… “Down the income ladder, it does appear that there's a great wage revolt occurring amongst people who previously worked in food and beverage and perhaps some areas of leisure and hospitality,” chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm, recently told Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “I'm not quite sure they want to go back to work in those industries. And if they do, they're going to require more than $2.39 an hour plus tips.” “We have over 9 million jobs available and we only have one person looking for each job,” Brusuelas said. “That confers a slight shift from the dynamic towards bargaining power on the part of labor. It's been decades since that's been the case.”
Yahoo! Finance, US annual consumer price inflation jumps 5.0% in May: govt, 06/10/2021: US consumer prices spiked last month, with the inflation rate accelerating to five percent for the 12 months ending May as energy and used car prices rose, the government said Thursday. That continues the trend seen since January as the world's largest economy rebounds and prices recover from the sharp declines in the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic… Joseph Brusuelas of consulting firm RSM US downplayed the fears, noting the modest 2.2 percent rise in the cost of housing. "Ok people, this is not exactly the stuff of 1970s style inflation," he said on Twitter. "If rents are at 2 percent game over on inflation trade." Similar articles also featured in The Washington Post, Barron’s, Seeking Alpha and The World News, among others.
CNN Business, Exclusive: US businesses warn crumbling infrastructure is hurting the economy, Matt Egan, 06/09/2021: As infrastructure negotiations between the White House and a GOP Senate group broke down this week, business executives are warning that aging infrastructure is holding America back… "The antiquated nature of America's infrastructure is holding back the national economy, the local economy and the firms that comprise the beating heart and soul of the real economy," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in an interview. Similar article also picked up in MSN News.
Yahoo! Finance, ‘The balance of power has shifted towards workers’: Economist, 06/09/2021: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the outlook for the economy as U.S. job openings reach record levels.
Yahoo! Finance, The U.S. economy is 'entering boomtown': economist, Seana Smith, 06/04/2021: As economic activity bounces back and the labor market continues to improve, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance Live the U.S. economy is “entering boomtown.”
CBS MoneyWatch, Unemployment rate falls to 5.8% — lowest rate since pandemic erupted, Irina Ivanova, 06/04/2021: U.S. employers added a solid 559,000 jobs in May, a sign the economy continues to expand as consumers and businesses resume their normal activity amid a nationwide decline in COVID-19 infections… "That blows a gigantic hole in arguments that unemployment insurance is serving as a disincentive" for jobless Americans to return to work, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for international accountancy RSM, told CBS MoneyWatch.
The Hill, Key takeaways from May jobs report, Sylvan Lane, 06/04/21: Politicians, economists and lawmakers are all pouring over the May jobs report that showed the U.S. added jobs as the unemployment rate fell. Specifically, the economy gained 559,000 new workers and the jobless rate dropped to a pandemic-low of 5.8 percent… Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM, argued Friday that the strong rebound in the relatively low-paying leisure and hospitality sector proved that expanded unemployment benefits were not keeping workers from taking open jobs. “If that assertion was true, one would not be observing such jobs gains in the sectors with the lowest pay,” he wrote. Similar article also featured in The World News.
CNN Business, Here's why this summer's jobs reports might seem underwhelming, Anneken Tappe, 06/03/2021: The jobs recovery has slowed since last year's buoyant rebound. And now a summer lull may be upon us before the return to in-person schooling in September allows more people to return to work… "We anticipate that June will mark the point at which the economy moves beyond recovering lost ground and enters a period of expansion," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. Americans' incomes and spending jumped in March, on the back of stimulus checks, while savings shrunk. This revitalization of the consumer sector is a good sign for more employment gains in the summer, Brusuelas said.
Politico, Beware the very weird jobs report ahead, Ben White and Aubree Weaver, 06/03/2021: Friday’s May jobs report is something of a wild card given the crazy low April number. But it should come in somewhere around 600K to 700K. The problem is you could use this number — strong but not what we need post-Covid — to make arguments both for and against President Joe Biden’s big $4 trillion spending plans on infrastructure and family issues… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect total employment to increase by 615,000 jobs when the employment report for May is released on Friday, with the possibility of a strong month of growth because of diminished seasonal effects linked to the echo of the pandemic-induced collapse in employment last year.
CNN Business, Why Republicans' main attack on Biden's infrastructure plan doesn't work, Matt Egan, 06/03/2021: Since Covid-19 erupted last spring, Washington came to the rescue with more than $5 trillion of fiscal stimulus. That unprecedented rescue effort helped prevent the economy from plunging into a depression… Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said the inflationary impact of the Biden agenda will be limited by the long-term nature of the investment, low borrowing costs and America's aging demographics. "I do not expect Build Back Better to cause a return to 1970s-style inflation," Brusuelas said. "And the modernization of aging infrastructure will likely increase productivity, which will tend to offset inflationary impulses." Similar article also featured in The Fiscal Times.
CNN Business, Gold is glittering as the dollar weakens, Paul R. La Monica, 05/26/2021: Gold is back above $1,900 an ounce for the first time since early January. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index has given up all its gains for the year and has fallen nearly 4% from its 2021 peak in late March and is now hovering near a 52-week low… "We are anticipating the highest rates of growth in gross domestic product since the 1980s," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, in a report, adding that US Treasury yields are likely to rise too, further pressuring the dollar. Similar articles also featured in The World News.
Marketplace, The Dow at 125: Why it endures, Sabri Ben-Achour, 05/26/2021: The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned 125 on Wednesday. It is one of the world’s oldest stock market indexes, and it is unlike many others. In 1896, railroads ruled the U.S. economy. Industry was ascendant, and farmers upset by mortgage rates and rail freight costs were powering a wave of populist unrest across the country. Charles Dow sensed the upheaval in the economy sparked by the move toward industrialization… Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM, said the index is also just plain popular.
TD Ameritrade, Market Bubble Watch, Gas Prices, & Jobless Claims, Nicole Petallides, 05/25/2021: Why are gasoline prices falling when the summer driving season is approaching? Joe Brusuelas examines wholesale Gas Futures versus the daily average retail gas price. He also discusses the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report and its impact on the markets.
Accounting Today, RSM US announces fourth Industry Eminence class, Sean McCabe, 05/21/2021: RSM US announced that the fourth class of its Industry Eminence Program has begun. Launched in 2018 by RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas and deputy chief economist and national Industry Eminence Program leader Kevin Depew, the Eminence Program looks to educate candidates on a range of economic, business and technology trends impacting the firm's clients.
Yahoo! Finance, Stock market news live updates: Wall Street rallies after jobless claims; Oatly jumps in debut, Emily McCormick and Javier E. David, 05/20/2021: Wall Street benchmarks advanced on Thursday, with investors reacting to jobless claims falling to a new COVID-19 era low, but wary of rising inflation may force the Federal Reserve to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later… "We strongly suggest that firm managers, investors and policymakers should anticipate more robust monthly job gains for the remainder of the year and a steady march downward on the overall unemployment rate to 4.1% by the holiday season," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a research note.
Marketplace, Small business pessimism abounds, Mitchell Hartman, 05/11/2021: According to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover report, or JOLTS, there were 8.1 million positions available in March, a record high for job openings. Consumer spending is also pretty strong and confidence is edging up toward pre-pandemic levels… Many small businesses are likely to be outbid for scarce workers by larger competitors, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “Mid-sized companies tend to pay the median average wage around $60,000 dollars, right? Small companies don’t do that,” he said.
The Washington Post, U.S. picked up just 266,000 jobs in April, well below expectations as economy struggles to rebound, Eli Rosenberg, 05/07/2021: The U.S. economy added just 266,000 jobs in April, a disappointing month of growth that fell well below economists’ estimates despite declining virus caseloads and increased vaccine distribution around the country. The April unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged at 6.1 percent, although economists caution that the number is misleadingly low, given how many people have dropped out of the labor force in the past year… "Given the robust expectations of over a million jobs gained, it's hard to label this anything but a disappointment," Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at Chicago-based consulting firm RSM. Similar article also featured in Salon.
Yahoo! Finance, April unemployment rate: 6.1% vs. 5.8% expected, 05/07/2021: Yahoo Finance’s Myles Udland, Julie Hyman, and Brian Sozzi react to the April Jobs Report with Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist, and Emily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist. NOTE: An additional video clip from the segment featuring Joe can be found here: Yahoo! Finance.
The Hill, How demand is outstripping supply and hampering recovery, Sylvan Lane, 05/04/2021: The recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has thrown off the balance between supply and demand, creating political challenges for both the White House and Federal Reserve… “The change in behavior around the public health crisis should not be equated with a downturn caused by an inventory correction or a policy error by the central bank,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and audit firm RSM. Similar article also featured in MSN News.
CNN Business, US economy soared in the first quarter, growing at a 6.4% rate, Anneken Tappe, 04/29/2021: America is on the path to recovery and economic growth is rampant. But the pandemic recession has been severe and we're still not done growing our way out of it. US gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic activity — grew at an annualized pace of 6.4% in the first three months of the year, adjusted for seasonal swings, the Commerce Department reported Thursday… "The primary policy takeaway from this report is stay the course," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US. "It is essential that the fiscal and monetary authorities follow through on current policy paths for the economy to return to full employment which we expect to be reached in the second half of 2022." Similar articles also featured in MSN Money,
Los Angeles Times, U.S. economic growth surges in 1st quarter, foreshadowing booming recovery from pandemic, Don Lee, 04/29/2021: Just a year after a new coronavirus blew a crater-size hole in the U.S. economy, the recovery gained momentum in the first quarter as growth surged at a strong 6.4% annual rate, government data released Thursday show… “It’s off the charts,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US.
Global Times, US Fed keeps interest rates near zero as recovery picks up, 04/29/2021: The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at the record-low level of near zero, as economic recovery gathers momentum on COVID-19 vaccination progress and strong fiscal support… "Fed sticks to the script and makes case that the increase in inflation is transitory. Fed implies coming changes to its summary of economic projections by stating economic activity and employment has strengthened," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP. Similar articles also featured in The World News and Big News Network.
Yahoo! Money, ‘By the end of this year we won’t be talking about semiconductor chips anymore’: RSM Chief Economist, 04/28/2021: Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist and Sarah House, Wells Fargo Senior Economist, joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss inflation concerns and economic outlook amid FOMC decisions.
Global Times, U.S. Fed to maintain ultra-loose policy as economic recovery far from complete, Xinhua, 04/28/2021: The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy as the economic recovery remains far from complete, analysts said… "We expect the Fed to maintain its policy rate between a range of zero and 0.25%, with no changes to the central bank's forward guidance with respect to asset purchases," following a two-day policy meeting that will end on Wednesday, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP.
The Guardian, UK ‘rebounding sharply’; supply bottlenecks hit German firms; travel shares rally – as it happened, Graeme Wearden, 04/26/2021: Hopes are building that the UK economy will grow rapidly this year… First published on Mon 26 Apr 2021 02.30 EDT Here’s some early reaction to the US durable goods orders, from Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US.
Yahoo! Sports, Super League Collapse Won’t Mean the End of Globalized Sports, John Wall Street, 04/26/2021: The collapse of the European Soccer League, less than 50 hours after it was announced, should serve as a warning sign to global policymakers, investors and chief executives who support the movement of ideas, capital and people across borders to expand opportunity and prosperity. “The time of extreme globalization is in the rearview mirror,” RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas said.
Associated Press, Businesses scramble for help as job openings go unfilled, Joyce Rosenberg, 04/21/2021: It looks like something to celebrate: small businesses posting “Help Wanted” signs as the economy edges toward normalcy. Instead, businesses are having trouble filling the jobs, which in turn hurts their ability to keep up with demand for their products or services… Economist Joe Brusuelas says child care is another issue that may extend owners’ struggles to find workers. “Until the schools are reopened and avenues of child care normalized, small firms in general, as well as food, beverage, leisure and hospitality, in particular, are going to face staffing challenges until later this fall at the earliest,” says Brusuelas, chief economist with the consulting firm RSM.
Benzinga, Pandemic Savings + Government Stimulus: What It All Means For The Stock Market And Economy, Wayne Duggan, 04/19/2021: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up more than 86% since the S&P hit its pandemic low in March 2020. While some investors are growing skeptical of the market’s expanding valuation, others argue the unprecedented conditions in the global economy have created a perfect storm for the stock market that may last for quite a while… RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas said on Monday that more than $6 trillion in U.S. government stimulus spending has certainly helped support the economy and boost stock prices. However, elevated pandemic savings rates may end up being a longer-term tailwind for the economy. Brusuelas said U.S. savings rates spiked 400% last April during the early weeks of the U.S. pandemic. Even 12 months later, U.S. savings rates are still 74% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Similar articles also featured in The Fiscal Times and Markets Insider.
The Wall Street Journal, U.S. Economy Ramps Up on Spending Surge, Hiring Gains, Amara Omeokwe, 04/15/2021: The U.S. economic recovery is accelerating as stimulus money, Covid-19 vaccinations and business re-openings spur a spring surge in consumer spending, a sharp pullback in layoffs and a bounceback in factory output. Retail sales—a measure of purchases at stores, at restaurants and online—jumped 9.8% in March, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The gain in consumer spending—the biggest driver of economic activity—came as the government began distributing hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus funds to households… The economic readings taken together reflect “people going back to work, people seeing more income, people spending. This is a good story about the American economy’s resilience,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Similar article also featured in Fidelity.
Sky News, The ‘time of artificial intelligence’ has been hastened by the pandemic, 04/14/2021: RSM US LLP Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas says the time of artificial intelligence and machine learning is “now upon us” and has been hastened by the changes which have come about during the coronavirus pandemic. “The pre pandemic status quo is just not going to return,” he said. “For the first time those middle market clients … they’re going to pull forward a decade’s worth of investment in productivity enhancing intellectual property software and equipment.
CNN Business, Practically everything is getting more expensive in America, Anneken Tappe, 04/14/2021: Wall Street has been a bundle of nerves about potential spikes in inflation since Democrats passed $1.9 trillion in economic stimulus last month. And on Tuesday, some of the first signs of inflation came to pass. Consumer prices for March rose 2.6% compared to the same month last year… "In our estimation it would be a mistake for policymakers, investors and firm managers to conclude that there is about to be a sustained and significant breakout higher in the overall level of prices that results in diminished consumer purchasing power and thinner profit margins over the medium to long term," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, in a note to clients. Similar articles also featured in International Business Times, Washington News Post and The World News, among others.
TD Ameritrade Network, Joe Brusuelas Discusses The Importance Of Following Leading Indicators, 04/12/2021: Joe Brusuelas weighs in on macro takeaways, leading indicators in construction and industrial production, as well as the Economic Surprise Index.
Axios, The mismatched economy, Dion Rabouin, 04/12/2021: As job growth finally starts to take off thanks to improving vaccine numbers and increasing optimism, the economy is confronting an unusual quandary: a mismatch of expectations between workers and employers that's becoming a standoff… Hiring is breaking down along the lines of the K-shaped recovery, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax policy firm RSM. "While [lower-wage] workers are plentiful, firms are going to find it difficult to recruit workers unless they are willing to pay higher wages," he tells Axios, something large companies especially have shown they are unwilling to do. "Thus firms then must choose: Hold down wage costs or substitute technology for labor. Either way, it results in historically low labor force participation rates and employment to population ratio." Similar article also featured in Yahoo! News.
Sportico, March Madness Ads Spur Huge One-Day Inflow to NCAA’s Invesco ETF, John Wall Street, 04/05/2021: On Monday, March 22, Invesco’s $155 billion QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF—the official exchange traded fund of the NCAA—realized its largest one-day inflow since 2000 ($4.9 billion)… While it seems unlikely that the March Madness commercial campaign was solely responsible for the inflow (particularly considering that Friday, March 19—effectively the first day of the tournament—was a significant day for the expiration of options and futures on indexes and equities, which may have triggered creation activity the following Monday), RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas said it was certainly a contributing factor in investments made at that time. “I watch the games. I watch the commercials,” he said. “And being a market professional, you can’t help but notice this very intelligent [campaign marketing to a new class of investor].” Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Sports.
CNN Business, The US recovery is speeding up but the global economy isn't out of danger, Julia Horowitz, 04/05/2021: The economic recovery in the United States and China is gaining steam, triggering a wave of upgraded forecasts and optimistic commentary. Meanwhile, economists watching other parts of the world are getting worried… "An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said in a note to clients.
Politico, Biden’s latest stimulus plan: Reducing inequality, Victoria Guida, 04/04/2021: Biden wants to not just invest in the regions that already have the most potential but also direct capital into underserved areas where people suffer the most… “Especially around rural broadband and 5G broadband connectivity, once the infrastructure is laid, you really are creating the conditions for a productivity renaissance,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, who estimates the Biden plan could add 0.4 percentage point to GDP every year for 10 years. “You are creating the conditions for a significant step up among disadvantaged communities in the overall economy.” Similar article also featured in MSN News.
Yahoo! Finance, March jobs report was 'awesome,' says this strategist, Brian Sozzi, 04/02/2021: One adjective may sum up the March jobs report. "This report is awesome," John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist Emily Roland said on Yahoo Finance Live… "This is going to be the best growth we have seen since the 1980s and the best job creation we have seen in terms of composition since the 1980s," RSM U.S. chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said on Yahoo Finance Live.
Yahoo! Finance, March jobs report shows ‘the best is yet to come’: economist, 04/02/2021: Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist and Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the latest jobs report and market outlook.
CNBC, Jobs report blows past expectations as payrolls boom by 916,000 in March, Jeff Cox, 04/02/2021: Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer, as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort contributed to a surge in hospitality and construction jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday… “While the gaudy hiring numbers for March won’t lead to an immediate policy shift, if the economy puts together a string of months like what we’ve seen in March, it will only be a matter of time before expectations on the start of Fed tapering will move up to late 2021, also pulling forward market expectations for the first interest-rate hike into the latter part of 2023,” wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Similar article also featured in Reuters.
Reuters, Robust U.S. employment growth expected in March, jobs deficit remains large, Lucia Mutikani, 04/01/2021: The U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March as more Americans got vaccinated and the government doled out additional pandemic relief money, marking the start of what could be the strongest economic performance this year in nearly four decades… "The result is a scarring in the labor force that will be hard to overcome," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. "Studies have shown that the length of time that a person is out of work affects the probability of that person regaining employment." Similar articles also featured in Yahoo! Finance, U.S. News & World Report and Business Insider, among others.
Associated Press, US jobless claims rise to 719K as virus still forces layoffs, Paul Wiseman, 04/01/2021: The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose by 61,000 last week to 719,000, signaling that many employers are still cutting jobs even as more businesses reopen, vaccines are increasingly administered and federal aid spreads through the economy… Some economists are even more optimistic: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax advisory firm RSM, is predicting 1 million added jobs for March. Similar articles also featured in USA Today, Yahoo! Finance, PBS News Hour, Chron.com, and Politico, among others.
Axios, Rebounding confidence suggests big March jobs number, Dion Rabouin, 03/31/2021: Confidence is returning to U.S. consumers as the government ramps up big spending programs that are putting money directly in Americans' bank accounts and COVID-19 vaccinations increase… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, is predicting the U.S. will see 1 million jobs added in March, "with a risk to the upside, as the economic recovery begins to take shape." Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Finance.
Politico, Covid strikes back, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 03/30/2021: Pardon this interruption to the “everything is awesome” narrative. Because Covid-19 is surging again, leaving the CDC director with a sense of “impending doom” regarding a fourth wave in the pandemic… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas, “If one looks at the alternative data on say restaurant reservations or TSA activity one gets the idea that the train has left the station. The only difference is how fast will the train travel amidst a fourth wave that’s unavoidable. … Given the pace of vaccinations around the economy I’d say the risks of derailing the recovery have diminished despite a resumption in infections in some states.”
The Wall Street Journal, Coronavirus Was Supposed to Drive Bankruptcies Higher. The Opposite Happened., Soma Biswas and Harriet Torry, 03/29/2021: The number of people seeking bankruptcy fell sharply during the pandemic as government aid propped up income and staved off housing and student-loan obligations… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, said financial firepower provided by government stimulus—the latest aid package was $1.9 trillion—and the bridge provided by moratoria could limit future financial stress in households and its impact on the overall economy. “We’re really talking about a forbearance issue,” Mr. Brusuelas said. “It’s in no one’s interest to foreclose on homes and autos after a public health crisis.”
CNN Politics, Fact-checking Biden's first news conference as president, Daniel Dale, Holmes Lybrand, Tara Subramaniam and Katie Lobosco, 03/25/2021: President Joe Biden held the first formal news conference of his presidency on Thursday, taking questions in the East Room of the White House on immigration, foreign policy, the Senate filibuster, his political future and other subjects… Once the passage of a big Covid relief bill became more likely, several economists upgraded their forecasts of 2021 US GDP growth. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said the legislation would boost GDP by an additional 3 percentage points and is now predicting 7.2% growth in 2021. Similar articles also featured in MSN News, The World News and Erie News Now, among others.
Yahoo! Finance Live, Inflation will 'ease significantly' after it increases to around 3% in 2021: Economist, 03/23/2021: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joined Yahoo Finance Live to break down what investors can expect from inflation rates in 2021 and what this means for the American economy.
Benzinga, Pre-Pandemic Job Levels Not Happening Until 2023, Economists Survey Says, Phil Hall, 03/22/2021: The U.S. job market is unlikely to return to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels until 2023 or later, according to a new survey released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE)… The wariness by the NABE experts on continued weakness in job creation was mirrored in a note published last week by Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “Top line claims increased to 770,000 versus an expected decline to 700,000 for the week ending March 13,” Brusuelas wrote. “There were 282,394 new pandemic unemployment assistance claims and 4.12 million continuing claims. The total number of people filing for unemployment benefits declined to 18.2 million for the week ending February 27 from 20.1 million previously." Similar article also featured in CFO.
Axios, A full year of staggering and unprecedented job losses, Dion Rabouin, 03/19/2021: This week's initial jobless claims report marked a sobering milestone — it was the 52nd straight week that more than 1 million Americans filed for unemployment assistance… "This is evidence of the long-term scarring in the labor sector that, despite what is going to be a booming economy over the next two to three years, will not be repaired anytime soon and requires sustained policy attention," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, said in a note to clients. Similar articles also featured in Yahoo! Finance and The Frontier Post.
Associated Press, New challenge for the Powell Fed: A strengthening economy, Christopher Rugaber, 03/15/2021: For the past year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has expressed a wish for more rescue spending from Congress, better control of the viral pandemic and clear evidence of an improving economy. He’s finally getting all three. Yet all of that hardly makes Powell’s job easier… “Financial markets are looking for action here, not words,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and advisory firm RSM. “Powell’s in a difficult situation.” Brusuelas suggested that Powell might be able to allay any concerns just by mentioning the Fed’s additional tools, without having to implement them. Similar articles also featured in U.S. News & World Report, ABC News and Chron, among others.
CNN Business, Jerome Powell can't take his eyes off the job market, Julia Horowitz, 03/14/2021: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has made it very clear that unlike some investors, he's not stressed out about a potential rise in inflation later this year. And there's good reason for that: he's busy worrying about jobs. That gives the Fed a lot more leeway to keep interest rates lower for longer — and that's what many economists expect it to do… "They've said they're willing to be patient," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told me. Similar articles also featured in MSN Money, The World News and Erie News Now, among others.
The Hill, Biden gets boost with sunny COVID-19 outlook, Sylvan Lane and Niv Elis, 03/13/2021: The Biden administration is riding a wave of rising optimism about the recovery from the COVID-19 recession, with the president and top surrogates hitting the road to sell their relief plan… “The White House and Democrats on the Hill did an outstanding job in ensuring that the combination between immediate aid and additional aid...will combine with plentiful household savings to bolster the economy over the next three years at a minimum,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in MSN News and The World News, among others.
The Seattle Times, Relive the market’s worst days from 2020 before they come back, Chuck Jaffe, 03/13/2021: Most people can remember exactly where they were when the stock market suffered its biggest one-day point decline ever. That’s not because the day was particularly memorable but more because it happened about a year ago, on March 16, 2020, early in the coronavirus pandemic when almost everything shut down, leaving many of us stuck at home… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a recent interview on “Money Life with Chuck Jaffe” that the economy will see “generational growth” — unlike anything seen since the Reagan Administration — for the next two years, but he also expects “permanent economic scarring” from the pandemic.
CNN Business, After Biden stimulus, US economic growth could rival China's for the first time in decades, Matt Egan, 03/12/2021: For decades, China's economy has grown much faster than America's. That trend is likely to be broken in 2021 as the US recovery from the pandemic gains momentum… "We're going to be in the ballpark — and I think the US will most likely be the leader," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Also picked up in The Philadelphia Tribune, Erie News Now and The World News, among others.
Marketplace, A year of pandemic unemployment, by the numbers, Mitchell Hartman, 03/11/2021: Seven hundred twelve thousand — that’s how many Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment last week. That’s about 6% fewer than the week before, and a big improvement over the worst weeks of the early pandemic, just about a year ago, when the number went into the millions for a couple of months… Joe Brusuelas at RSM Consulting keeps coming back to 40%. “Revenue among small businesses is down almost 40% since January of 2020. And about 40% of the businesses that were open then are no longer open.” That’s businesses with 10 or fewer employees, and revenue under $10 million. Brusuelas said recovering the jobs lost at those businesses could take a very long time.
Politico, Morning Money - Biden at 50 days, Ben White and Aubree Weaver, 03/11/2021: Biden at 50 days — In POLITICO Nightly I took a stab at assessing President Biden’s performance over the first 50 days (because who needs to wait for 100?) and wound up with a B+ overall and an “incomplete” on the economy, given it all now depends on what happens with the $1.9 trillion stimulus now headed to the president’s desk… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The legislation will provide a robust tail wind to the domestic economy and likely boost U.S. GDP by an additional three percentage points. “Based on this latest development we have upgraded our 2021 forecast to 7.2% (previously 6.1%) and our 2022 growth estimate to 4.8% (3.2%) and now expect a 2.9% pace of growth in 2023 all well above the long term growth rate in the U.S. of 1.8%. “It is critical to note that we think that based on this legislation and the $1 trillion or so of spending still in the pipeline from previously passed legislation late in the last administration that there is notable risk of much faster growth over during the 2021-2023 period.”
Forbes, Goldman Sachs Predicts An Upcoming ‘Jobs Boom’, Jack Kelly, 03/10/2021: Top-tier investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts a boom in hiring. A confluence of positive events, including the rollout of vaccines, massive amounts of financial stimulus injected into the economy, a very positive February jobs report and accumulated savings of people who’ve been staying at home for the last year, will converge to create the “coming jobs boom,” according to Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist… Other economists are equally enthusiastic. RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said, "In mid to late year, you will see job gains of above a million per month as people stream back into the labor force." Similar article also featured in Yahoo! News.
Forbes, Nuked Jobs Market, Patrick W. Watson, 03/09/2021: U.S. employers created 379,000 new jobs in February. This news generated much celebration and, for those who fear inflation, some worry… But RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas pointed out that this was simple payback from the prior two months, when the L&H segment lost 523,000 jobs.
Yahoo! Finance On The Move, Why February’s job report headline numbers aren’t as strong as they may seem, 03/05/2021: Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, joins Yahoo Finance to break down the latest jobs report for the month of February.
TD Ameritrade Morning Trade Live, Joe Brusuelas On Powell And Inflation, 03/05/2021: Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas examines a busy end-of-week in financial markets. February's Employment Situation report that came out Friday, March 5 showed improvement in the labor market following comments out of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday.
Politico, Powell on the clock on inflation, Ben White, 03/05/2021: Per new AICPA economic outlook survey out this a.m.: “U.S. business executives are taking a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy for the coming year … There’s a downside, however, to the prospect of a more open-throttle economy: a greater risk of inflation. Business executives’ concerns about inflation grew from 24 percent to 44 percent, quarter over quarter, the highest level it’s risen to since the end of 2018.… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect a total increase in employment of 105,000 jobs for February with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3% when the Labor Department releases its monthly data on Friday. “The primary narrative for the month will be the contrast between the true level of unemployment in the economy and the official data. Our estimate of the unemployment rate that accounts for the effects of the pandemic holds at 7.3%, but once we adjust that figure for those who have left the workforce, it is at 10.2%.”
Accountancy Daily, Signs of improving UK economic prospects, Sara White, 03/05/2021: The firm’s Index, an aggregated performance indicator of currency, bond and equity markets, has increased, from -0.1 below normal stress levels in Q3 2020, to a positive reading of 0.3… Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said: ‘While all credit must be given to the medical and life sciences communities for the response to deliver three workable vaccines to address the pandemic; global monetary and fiscal authorities have also been busy laying the groundwork for a recovery from the pandemic-induced economic downturn.’ Similar article also featured in Consumer Credit Magazine.
The Fiscal Times, Job Growth Jumps in February: What Does It Mean for Biden’s Relief Bill?, Michael Rainey, 03/05/2021: The U.S. labor market added 379,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department announced Friday, raising hopes that the economy is accelerating as it heads into the spring… Though the jobs report provided better-than-expected results, the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it returns to pre-pandemic conditions – and the latest report may not be quite as good as it appears. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, wrote Friday that “the major policy takeaway from this report is that there has not been a dramatic acceleration in hiring.” Most of the new jobs simply made up for layoffs in the late fall and early winter, Brusuelas said, and job losses were recorded in the goods-producing and financial sectors, with little growth outside low-wage areas marked by temporary employment. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Washington Post, Market fall after Fed Chair Powell urges patience, Rachel Siegel, 03/04/2021: Stocks fell sharply Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell did not reassure investors that inflation and bold yields would stay under control when the pandemic ends and economic activity rebounds… “It is clear that the bond market is pricing in greater inflation on the back of economic reflation this year,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, after Powell’s remarks. “Powell went out of his way to reinstate the word ‘patient’ into the discussion on risk linked to inflation,” Brusuelas added. “That should be understood to mean that the Fed will not act to preempt the nascent economic recovery because of what is widely expected, and what Powell stated, will be a midyear increase in inflation that will be a function of year-ago base effects.” Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Finance and Benzinga.
CNBC, 10% GDP growth? The U.S. economy is on fire and is about to get stoked even more, Jeff Cox, 03/02/2021: The U.S. economy has roared back to life in 2021, with first-quarter growth set to defy even the rosiest expectations as another fresh influx of cash looms. Manufacturing data Monday showed the sector at its highest growth level since August 2018. That report from the Institute for Supply Management in turn helped confirm the notion among economists that output to start the year is far better than the low single-digit growth many had been predicting in late 2020. “You’re going to see the growth rates in the middle of the year probably close to 9%. That’s how strong the reopening of the U.S. economy will be vis-a-vis the release of pent-up demand by the household sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “I don’t expect the pent-up demand to all be released this year. I’m expecting it to take about two years to do that, primarily because households will be somewhat cautious about the release of cash.”
CNBC, Fed policy changes could be coming in response to bond market turmoil, economist say, 03/01/2021: While the Federal Reserve may not raise its benchmark interest rate for years, there are growing expectations it may tweak policy soon to address some of the recent tumults in the bond market. Markets worried over how things are running likely will welcome the Fed’s moves, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. In addition to the Twist implementation and adjustment on IOER, Brusuelas thinks the Fed also will increase the rate it pays on overnight repo operations from zero basis points to five. While Brusuelas said markets expected rising rates this year, “what we didn’t expect was an overreaction to the reflation of the domestic economy in the fixed income market. That clearly has gotten the attention of the Fed.” “The market would welcome the lifting of the IOER as well as any communication that it intends to twist the curve down to keep the economy on track,” he added. Also picked up in Business Telegraph.
Politico, Biden’s bubble risk: A reckoning in markets as the economy recovers, Ben White, 03/01/2021: Giant bubbles are once again inflating all over the financial world — creating a potential problem for Washington in the coming months… “I’m more concerned about the bursting of bubbles in cyber assets, gold and SPACs,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US. Similar article also picked up in Morning Money.
The Washington Post, Once Trump’s ‘enemy,’ Fed emerges as White House ally in rejecting concerns about overdoing stimulus, Rachel Siegel, 02/28/2021: As prominent economists, Republican lawmakers and some market analysts raise alarm bells about the risks of overspending and overstimulating the economy, the Biden administration has found a surprising ally: the Federal Reserve… Still, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, shot down arguments around “group think.” Brusuelas said the Fed and Treasury is full of economists with a range of opinions and rigorous research. He noted that Powell is a Republican made chair under Trump, while Yellen is a Democrat in Biden’s White House. “Anybody who has read Powell’s speeches, or Yellen’s speeches, or Yellen’s academic work will tell you they do not share the same thoughts on all topics,” Brusuelas said, “even if right now they have the same broad analytical framework about the way policy should proceed.” Similar articles also picked up in MSN News, SF Gate and Wealth Creation Investing, among others.
CNN Business, Oil is up nearly 70% since the election, a record in the modern era, Matt Egan, 02/26/2021: The oil market is starting the Biden era with a bang. And that means Covid-weary Americans returning to the roads this spring and summer will be greeted with higher prices at the pump… "The economy will be far less sensitive to movements in the price of oil than it has been in our lifetimes," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International. "Many of us are still prisoners of the 1970s oil price shock. But we are several economies away from then." Similar article also featured in The Times Hub.
The Wall Street Journal, Boost to Household Income Primes U.S. Economy for Stronger Growth, Josh Mitchell, 02/26/2021: Pandemic aid to households is pouring money into the U.S. economy, priming it for rapid growth this year… "The levels are off the charts," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said of the cash reserves. "You're going to see the fuel for a pretty big consumer-led boom this year, which will spill into next." He expects the economy to grow 6.5% or higher this year. Also picked up in Morningstar and Fox Business.
CNN Business, A glimmer of hope: ‘Only’ 730,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, Anneken Tappe, 02/25/2021: Another 730,000 American workers filed for first-time unemployment benefits, adjusted for seasonal swings, last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday…The Ohio and Texas drops were "due to the deep freeze that settled in across the country," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, though that didn't explain the much larger decline in warmer California. Similar articles also featured in The Hill, The Fiscal Times and The Financial Times, among others.
Axios, Priced for perfection, Dion Rabouin, 02/06/21: It would be hard for things to get much worse than 2020, but Wall Street fund managers and the general public may be pricing in too much optimism… The key to a virtuous V-shaped recovery for the economy is the ability of policymakers to get as many people vaccinated as possible, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "My fundamental outlook since mid-2020 on this has not changed," he tells Axios. "V stands for vaccine. No vaccine, no recovery."
Washington Post, The economy gained just 49,000 jobs in January, as recover sputters amid pressure from virus, Eli Rosenberg, 02/05/21: The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a disappointing but not entirely unexpected tally that reflects the continued strain on the labor market inflected by the coronavirus. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent compared with 6.7 percent in December, although the decline was driven by people leaving the workforce instead of getting jobs…“There’s no way to construe that this was not a weak jobs report,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in The Fiscal Times and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Yahoo! Finance, How economists are reacting to January’s jobs report, 02/05/21: Dana Peterson — The Conference Board’s chief economist — and Joe Brusuelas — RSM Chief Economist — join Yahoo Finance Live to weigh in on January’s jobs report, which missed expectations.
BBC News, US job growth sluggish as virus hampers recovery, 02/05/21: The US economy added just 49,000 jobs in January as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hamper recovery. Losses hit workers at retail stores, restaurants, casinos and hotels, in a sign that analysts said underscored the need for further economic relief…"The soft January US employment report strongly implies that the next round of fiscal aid/stimulus needs to be error on the side of caution and go big," economist Joseph Brusuelas, of the RSM accounting and consultancy firm, wrote on Twitter. "Outside of professional business and services hiring this report is undeniably weak." Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
MarketWatch, Biden says he could deliver $1.9 trillion aid package without Republican support, Victor Reklaitis, 02/05/21: President Joe Biden on Friday continued to make the case for his $1.9 trillion relief plan, with his pitch coming after a monthly employment report showed the U.S. economy added a meager 49,000 jobs in January…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, indicated some support for the president’s view as he assessed the latest jobs report. “The soft January US employment report strongly implies that the next round of fiscal aid/stimulus needs to avoid an error on the side of caution and go big. Outside of professional business and services hiring this report is undeniably weak,” Brusuelas said in a tweet. Also picked up in Morningstar.
Washington Examiner, Biden and Democrats maneuvering to check box on $2,000 checks pledge, Tyler Van Dyke, 02/05/21: President Biden again shifted what he meant when he promised to send $2,000 checks "out the door" as he negotiates with Congress over his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM, told the Washington Examiner that the $1,400 checks were "absolutely critical for households down the income ladder where economic conditions resemble a depression and not the modest recovery in process for the middle class and upper two quintiles of income earnings."
Sportico, Tampa Bay Expects Super Bowl Boost Despite COVID and Hometown Bucs, Randall Williams and Eben Novy-Williams, 02/02/21: Buccaneers fans are living a dream, as their team is the first to play a home game in the Super Bowl. And the knee-jerk reaction is that what’s good for the team, and good for the fans, is good for the area’s business community. But that’s not what a lot of researchers have said…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US, agrees. “The truth is, the hotels just don’t see the action—nor do the restaurants, nor do the bars, nor do the movie theaters, nor do the theme parks,” he said. “You’re just not going to get the same amount of people coming in from across the country.” Also picked up in Yahoo! Sports.
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas On The Impact Of U.S Personal Income On Economic Recovery, 02/02/21: RSM’s Joe Brusuelas says that "we are going to see growth rates like we have not seen since the Reagan and Clinton eras.” What are the expectations for another economic stimulus package?
USA Today, Shoppers face shortages of cars, shirts and smart speakers amid COVID-19 shipping delays, Paul Davidson, 02/01/21: Big Hammer Wines has about 20% less inventory than normal these days, forcing the restaurants, retailers and online customers who normally patronize the wine seller to choose alternative brands or find another supplier…That’s coming, though, economists say. The consumer price index, which rose a modest 1.4% annually in December, will likely be up 2.7% to 3% – above the Fed’s rough 2% target – by midyear, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM. Yet he expects the increase to last just several months until manufacturers ramp up production capacity.
Seeking Alpha, Big banks await Fed decision on whether it extends a rule at the end of March, Liz Kiesche, 01/31/21: A rule that the Fed imposed to promote liquidity and smooth functioning of the U.S. Treasury and funding markets is set to expire on March 31, 2021, and the decision on whether to extend it could have big implications for 14 large banks and for the U.S. Treasury markets…Note: FRA/OIS is a measure of potential stress in banking that shows the difference for funding unsecured three-month agreements required of lenders vs. the overnight indexed swap rate, a risk-free rate based on the federal funds rate economist Joseph Brusuelas explains on the RSM Real Economy blog.
Axios, 2020 was the economy's worst year since 1946, Courtenay Brown, 01/28/21: One of the last major economic report cards of the Trump era lends perspective to the historic damage caused by the pandemic, which continued to weigh on growth in the final quarter of 2020…The report "represents a major disappointment and hit to the nascent recovery in the domestic economy," Joseph Brusuelas, an economist at RSM, wrote in a note. Similar articles also featured in Morningstar, MarketScreener and Newser.
The Week, U.S. economy shrinks by 3.5 percent in 2020, the worst contraction since 1946, 01/28/21: The U.S. economy amid the COVID-19 pandemic just had its worst year in over seven decades. The Commerce Department on Thursday said the U.S. economy shrank by 3.5 percent in 2020, resulting in the worst year for growth since 1946, The Washington Post reports. This was also the U.S. economy's first yearly contraction since 2009 amid the Great Recession. The report represented a "major disappointment and hit to the nascent recovery in the domestic economy," RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas said, per Axios. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Publishers Daily, Former 'WSJ.Magazine' Publisher Bahrenburg To Lead 'Robb Report' Luxury Sales, Rob Williams, 01/25/21: Penske Media Corp. named Luke Bahrenburg as executive vice president-Chief Revenue Officer, Robb Report. He also is head of luxury sales at the publisher's art media titles, including ARTnews and Art in America…“We are on the verge of a luxury products boom," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US LLP, said in an interview. "There is ample pent-up demand for luxury goods.”
Yahoo! Finance, Engaging the Biden administration on trade will be key to Canada's long-term economic fortunes, shows latest RSM Canada report, 01/19/21: RSM Canada ("RSM"), the leading global provider of audit, tax and consulting services focused on middle market businesses, today launched its first 2021 issue of "The Real Economy: Canada" – a quarterly report that provides Canadian businesses with economic analysis and insights into factors driving growth, or economic headwinds, in Canada's middle market…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, added: "Once the vaccine is in place and case numbers drop down, we'll start to see the Canadian economy gradually reopen and when you pair that with a stronger, more fruitful trade relationship with the U.S., we're in a good place to see robust growth over the next two years.” Similar articles also featured in Canadian Accountant and Markets Insider, among others.
The Fiscal Times, Unemployment Claims Surge Along With the Coronavirus, Michael Rainey, 01/15/21: About 965,000 people filed initial jobless claims in state unemployment systems last week, the Department of Labor announced Thursday…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, said that with more than 18 million people receiving some kind of unemployment assistance, more help from the federal government will be needed. “Despite those who make the case that all is well and that no additional aid is necessary, we think that this data affirms the necessity for another round of fiscal aid,” Brusuelas wrote. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
The Wall Street Journal, WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021, Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros, 01/14/21: The U.S. economy will grow 4.3% this year, as the country exits the grip of the coronavirus pandemic, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey…“No vaccine, no recovery,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said. “The discovery of a vaccine will likely unleash over $1 trillion in excess savings that will satiate pent up demand.”
CNN Business, US debt surged by $7 trillion under Trump. It will go much higher under Biden, Matt Egan, 01/14/21: President Donald Trump certainly lived up to his self-proclaimed status as the King of Debt during his term in office. The national debt spiked by $7 trillion during Trump's tenure -- and it's about to soar much higher under his successor…"This is not the time to tighten the belt. The economy is in no condition for austerity," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Politico, Why impeachment matters, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 01/13/21: The big idea: why state and local money matters — RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place to offset the collapse in tax revenues. Unless there is aid put forward in the near term, another 1.5 million public sector jobs could be at risk. Although a windfall from capital gains taxes linked to elevated equity valuations have provided modest relief to beleaguered state and local government budgets, the situation is still dire.”
CNBC, 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 1.1% to start the week, Yun Li and Vicky McKeever, 01/11/21: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped above 1.1% on Monday, extending its recent advance on bets that more Covid-19 stimulus is coming…“The loss of momentum in the labor market is clear, and those who previously worked in retail, restaurants, entertainment, leisure and hospitality, as well as public sector workers in state and local governments, have paid the price,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Yahoo! Finance, Second Trump impeachment has ‘little direct impact’ on the economy: Brusuelas, 01/11/21: RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the implications of a second impeachment of President Donald Trump, and his insights on the prospect of a stimulus package, and current downsides to the U.S. economy.
Politico, Reversing job market opens door to larger Biden stimulus, Ben White, 01/08/21: The latest coronavirus wave slammed the U.S. economy in December, wiping out 140,000 jobs, raising pressure to accelerate vaccinations and blowing the door open for President-elect Joe Biden and a narrowly Democratic Congress to push for even more stimulus spending within weeks…“With the elections in Georgia giving control to the Democrats, we should expect to get a fairly large and targeted fiscal aid package in the first quarter of the year which investors clearly have seized on,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “We are going to get a targeted fiscal aid package quickly then another stimulus package and then infrastructure. And these are all huge things.”
The Fiscal Times, Jobs Recovery Falters in December, Michael Rainey, 01/08/21: U.S. payrolls shrank by 140,000 in December, bringing the jobs expansion that started in April to a halt, the Department of Labor announced Friday…The reversal in the labor market should be short-lived, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM. “While the trend in hiring has slowed in recent months — December’s decline was the first since April — we expect that this is more of a temporary lull in hiring than the breakout of a new trend that results in soaring unemployment,” Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “Rather, we expect that mass vaccine distribution this year will create the conditions for faster growth and employment." Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Marketplace, Wages spike in the pandemic — but it’s just a fluke, Mitchell Hartman, 01/04/21: The December jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department is expected to show continued strong wage gains compared to the pace of gains in the pre-pandemic economy…“What that was, was noise, not signal,” explained Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm focused on small- and middle-market businesses. Brusuelas said that fast-rising wages have been a statistical anomaly of the pandemic economy. While most higher-paid professionals have kept working from home and held on to their paychecks, millions of lower-paid service workers have lost their jobs and income.