Joe Brusuelas in the News
Recent interviews and contributions featuring RSM's chief economist
Joe Brusuelas is frequently asked to speak with reporters or provide commentary on the outlook for the middle market economy, including how proposed or recently enacted policy change will impact middle market businesses.
Read highlights from some of those recent conversations below. See our full media archives for more.
Axios, The mismatched economy, Dion Rabouin, 04/12/2021: As job growth finally starts to take off thanks to improving vaccine numbers and increasing optimism, the economy is confronting an unusual quandary: a mismatch of expectations between workers and employers that's becoming a standoff… Hiring is breaking down along the lines of the K-shaped recovery, says Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax policy firm RSM. "While [lower-wage] workers are plentiful, firms are going to find it difficult to recruit workers unless they are willing to pay higher wages," he tells Axios, something large companies especially have shown they are unwilling to do. "Thus firms then must choose: Hold down wage costs or substitute technology for labor. Either way, it results in historically low labor force participation rates and employment to population ratio." Similar article also featured in Yahoo! News.
Sportico, March Madness Ads Spur Huge One-Day Inflow to NCAA’s Invesco ETF, John Wall Street, 04/05/2021: On Monday, March 22, Invesco’s $155 billion QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF—the official exchange traded fund of the NCAA—realized its largest one-day inflow since 2000 ($4.9 billion)… While it seems unlikely that the March Madness commercial campaign was solely responsible for the inflow (particularly considering that Friday, March 19—effectively the first day of the tournament—was a significant day for the expiration of options and futures on indexes and equities, which may have triggered creation activity the following Monday), RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas said it was certainly a contributing factor in investments made at that time. “I watch the games. I watch the commercials,” he said. “And being a market professional, you can’t help but notice this very intelligent [campaign marketing to a new class of investor].” Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Sports.
CNN Business, The US recovery is speeding up but the global economy isn't out of danger, Julia Horowitz, 04/05/2021: The economic recovery in the United States and China is gaining steam, triggering a wave of upgraded forecasts and optimistic commentary. Meanwhile, economists watching other parts of the world are getting worried… "An American economy about to regain its swagger after a year of pandemic-induced crisis was on full display in the March jobs report," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said in a note to clients.
Politico, Biden’s latest stimulus plan: Reducing inequality, Victoria Guida, 04/04/2021: Biden wants to not just invest in the regions that already have the most potential but also direct capital into underserved areas where people suffer the most… “Especially around rural broadband and 5G broadband connectivity, once the infrastructure is laid, you really are creating the conditions for a productivity renaissance,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, who estimates the Biden plan could add 0.4 percentage point to GDP every year for 10 years. “You are creating the conditions for a significant step up among disadvantaged communities in the overall economy.” Similar article also featured in MSN News.
Yahoo! Finance, March jobs report was 'awesome,' says this strategist, Brian Sozzi, 04/02/2021: One adjective may sum up the March jobs report. "This report is awesome," John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist Emily Roland said on Yahoo Finance Live… "This is going to be the best growth we have seen since the 1980s and the best job creation we have seen in terms of composition since the 1980s," RSM U.S. chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said on Yahoo Finance Live.
Yahoo! Finance, March jobs report shows ‘the best is yet to come’: economist, 04/02/2021: Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist and Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, joins Yahoo Finance to discuss the latest jobs report and market outlook.
CNBC, Jobs report blows past expectations as payrolls boom by 916,000 in March, Jeff Cox, 04/02/2021: Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer, as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort contributed to a surge in hospitality and construction jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday… “While the gaudy hiring numbers for March won’t lead to an immediate policy shift, if the economy puts together a string of months like what we’ve seen in March, it will only be a matter of time before expectations on the start of Fed tapering will move up to late 2021, also pulling forward market expectations for the first interest-rate hike into the latter part of 2023,” wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Similar article also featured in Reuters.
Reuters, Robust U.S. employment growth expected in March, jobs deficit remains large, Lucia Mutikani, 04/01/2021: The U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March as more Americans got vaccinated and the government doled out additional pandemic relief money, marking the start of what could be the strongest economic performance this year in nearly four decades… "The result is a scarring in the labor force that will be hard to overcome," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM in New York. "Studies have shown that the length of time that a person is out of work affects the probability of that person regaining employment." Similar articles also featured in Yahoo! Finance, U.S. News & World Report and Business Insider, among others.
Associated Press, US jobless claims rise to 719K as virus still forces layoffs, Paul Wiseman, 04/01/2021: The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose by 61,000 last week to 719,000, signaling that many employers are still cutting jobs even as more businesses reopen, vaccines are increasingly administered and federal aid spreads through the economy… Some economists are even more optimistic: Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax advisory firm RSM, is predicting 1 million added jobs for March. Similar articles also featured in USA Today, Yahoo! Finance, PBS News Hour, Chron.com, and Politico, among others.
Axios, Rebounding confidence suggests big March jobs number, Dion Rabouin, 03/31/2021: Confidence is returning to U.S. consumers as the government ramps up big spending programs that are putting money directly in Americans' bank accounts and COVID-19 vaccinations increase… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, is predicting the U.S. will see 1 million jobs added in March, "with a risk to the upside, as the economic recovery begins to take shape." Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Finance.
Politico, Covid strikes back, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 03/30/2021: Pardon this interruption to the “everything is awesome” narrative. Because Covid-19 is surging again, leaving the CDC director with a sense of “impending doom” regarding a fourth wave in the pandemic… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas, “If one looks at the alternative data on say restaurant reservations or TSA activity one gets the idea that the train has left the station. The only difference is how fast will the train travel amidst a fourth wave that’s unavoidable. … Given the pace of vaccinations around the economy I’d say the risks of derailing the recovery have diminished despite a resumption in infections in some states.”
The Wall Street Journal, Coronavirus Was Supposed to Drive Bankruptcies Higher. The Opposite Happened., Soma Biswas and Harriet Torry, 03/29/2021: The number of people seeking bankruptcy fell sharply during the pandemic as government aid propped up income and staved off housing and student-loan obligations… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP, said financial firepower provided by government stimulus—the latest aid package was $1.9 trillion—and the bridge provided by moratoria could limit future financial stress in households and its impact on the overall economy. “We’re really talking about a forbearance issue,” Mr. Brusuelas said. “It’s in no one’s interest to foreclose on homes and autos after a public health crisis.”
CNN Politics, Fact-checking Biden's first news conference as president, Daniel Dale, Holmes Lybrand, Tara Subramaniam and Katie Lobosco, 03/25/2021: President Joe Biden held the first formal news conference of his presidency on Thursday, taking questions in the East Room of the White House on immigration, foreign policy, the Senate filibuster, his political future and other subjects… Once the passage of a big Covid relief bill became more likely, several economists upgraded their forecasts of 2021 US GDP growth. RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said the legislation would boost GDP by an additional 3 percentage points and is now predicting 7.2% growth in 2021. Similar articles also featured in MSN News, The World News and Erie News Now, among others.
Yahoo! Finance Live, Inflation will 'ease significantly' after it increases to around 3% in 2021: Economist, 03/23/2021: RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joined Yahoo Finance Live to break down what investors can expect from inflation rates in 2021 and what this means for the American economy.
Benzinga, Pre-Pandemic Job Levels Not Happening Until 2023, Economists Survey Says, Phil Hall, 03/22/2021: The U.S. job market is unlikely to return to its pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels until 2023 or later, according to a new survey released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE)… The wariness by the NABE experts on continued weakness in job creation was mirrored in a note published last week by Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “Top line claims increased to 770,000 versus an expected decline to 700,000 for the week ending March 13,” Brusuelas wrote. “There were 282,394 new pandemic unemployment assistance claims and 4.12 million continuing claims. The total number of people filing for unemployment benefits declined to 18.2 million for the week ending February 27 from 20.1 million previously." Similar article also featured in CFO.
Axios, A full year of staggering and unprecedented job losses, Dion Rabouin, 03/19/2021: This week's initial jobless claims report marked a sobering milestone — it was the 52nd straight week that more than 1 million Americans filed for unemployment assistance… "This is evidence of the long-term scarring in the labor sector that, despite what is going to be a booming economy over the next two to three years, will not be repaired anytime soon and requires sustained policy attention," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax advisory firm RSM, said in a note to clients. Similar articles also featured in Yahoo! Finance and The Frontier Post.
Associated Press, New challenge for the Powell Fed: A strengthening economy, Christopher Rugaber, 03/15/2021: For the past year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has expressed a wish for more rescue spending from Congress, better control of the viral pandemic and clear evidence of an improving economy. He’s finally getting all three. Yet all of that hardly makes Powell’s job easier… “Financial markets are looking for action here, not words,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax and advisory firm RSM. “Powell’s in a difficult situation.” Brusuelas suggested that Powell might be able to allay any concerns just by mentioning the Fed’s additional tools, without having to implement them. Similar articles also featured in U.S. News & World Report, ABC News and Chron, among others.
CNN Business, Jerome Powell can't take his eyes off the job market, Julia Horowitz, 03/14/2021: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has made it very clear that unlike some investors, he's not stressed out about a potential rise in inflation later this year. And there's good reason for that: he's busy worrying about jobs. That gives the Fed a lot more leeway to keep interest rates lower for longer — and that's what many economists expect it to do… "They've said they're willing to be patient," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told me. Similar articles also featured in MSN Money, The World News and Erie News Now, among others.
The Hill, Biden gets boost with sunny COVID-19 outlook, Sylvan Lane and Niv Elis, 03/13/2021: The Biden administration is riding a wave of rising optimism about the recovery from the COVID-19 recession, with the president and top surrogates hitting the road to sell their relief plan… “The White House and Democrats on the Hill did an outstanding job in ensuring that the combination between immediate aid and additional aid...will combine with plentiful household savings to bolster the economy over the next three years at a minimum,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at audit and tax firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in MSN News and The World News, among others.
The Seattle Times, Relive the market’s worst days from 2020 before they come back, Chuck Jaffe, 03/13/2021: Most people can remember exactly where they were when the stock market suffered its biggest one-day point decline ever. That’s not because the day was particularly memorable but more because it happened about a year ago, on March 16, 2020, early in the coronavirus pandemic when almost everything shut down, leaving many of us stuck at home… Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said in a recent interview on “Money Life with Chuck Jaffe” that the economy will see “generational growth” — unlike anything seen since the Reagan Administration — for the next two years, but he also expects “permanent economic scarring” from the pandemic.
CNN Business, After Biden stimulus, US economic growth could rival China's for the first time in decades, Matt Egan, 03/12/2021: For decades, China's economy has grown much faster than America's. That trend is likely to be broken in 2021 as the US recovery from the pandemic gains momentum… "We're going to be in the ballpark — and I think the US will most likely be the leader," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Also picked up in The Philadelphia Tribune, Erie News Now and The World News, among others.
Marketplace, A year of pandemic unemployment, by the numbers, Mitchell Hartman, 03/11/2021: Seven hundred twelve thousand — that’s how many Americans filed first-time claims for unemployment last week. That’s about 6% fewer than the week before, and a big improvement over the worst weeks of the early pandemic, just about a year ago, when the number went into the millions for a couple of months… Joe Brusuelas at RSM Consulting keeps coming back to 40%. “Revenue among small businesses is down almost 40% since January of 2020. And about 40% of the businesses that were open then are no longer open.” That’s businesses with 10 or fewer employees, and revenue under $10 million. Brusuelas said recovering the jobs lost at those businesses could take a very long time.
Politico, Morning Money - Biden at 50 days, Ben White and Aubree Weaver, 03/11/2021: Biden at 50 days — In POLITICO Nightly I took a stab at assessing President Biden’s performance over the first 50 days (because who needs to wait for 100?) and wound up with a B+ overall and an “incomplete” on the economy, given it all now depends on what happens with the $1.9 trillion stimulus now headed to the president’s desk… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “The legislation will provide a robust tail wind to the domestic economy and likely boost U.S. GDP by an additional three percentage points. “Based on this latest development we have upgraded our 2021 forecast to 7.2% (previously 6.1%) and our 2022 growth estimate to 4.8% (3.2%) and now expect a 2.9% pace of growth in 2023 all well above the long term growth rate in the U.S. of 1.8%. “It is critical to note that we think that based on this legislation and the $1 trillion or so of spending still in the pipeline from previously passed legislation late in the last administration that there is notable risk of much faster growth over during the 2021-2023 period.”
Forbes, Goldman Sachs Predicts An Upcoming ‘Jobs Boom’, Jack Kelly, 03/10/2021: Top-tier investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts a boom in hiring. A confluence of positive events, including the rollout of vaccines, massive amounts of financial stimulus injected into the economy, a very positive February jobs report and accumulated savings of people who’ve been staying at home for the last year, will converge to create the “coming jobs boom,” according to Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist… Other economists are equally enthusiastic. RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said, "In mid to late year, you will see job gains of above a million per month as people stream back into the labor force." Similar article also featured in Yahoo! News.
Forbes, Nuked Jobs Market, Patrick W. Watson, 03/09/2021: U.S. employers created 379,000 new jobs in February. This news generated much celebration and, for those who fear inflation, some worry… But RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas pointed out that this was simple payback from the prior two months, when the L&H segment lost 523,000 jobs.
Yahoo! Finance On The Move, Why February’s job report headline numbers aren’t as strong as they may seem, 03/05/2021: Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, joins Yahoo Finance to break down the latest jobs report for the month of February.
TD Ameritrade Morning Trade Live, Joe Brusuelas On Powell And Inflation, 03/05/2021: Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas examines a busy end-of-week in financial markets. February's Employment Situation report that came out Friday, March 5 showed improvement in the labor market following comments out of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday.
Politico, Powell on the clock on inflation, Ben White, 03/05/2021: Per new AICPA economic outlook survey out this a.m.: “U.S. business executives are taking a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy for the coming year … There’s a downside, however, to the prospect of a more open-throttle economy: a greater risk of inflation. Business executives’ concerns about inflation grew from 24 percent to 44 percent, quarter over quarter, the highest level it’s risen to since the end of 2018.… RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “We expect a total increase in employment of 105,000 jobs for February with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.3% when the Labor Department releases its monthly data on Friday. “The primary narrative for the month will be the contrast between the true level of unemployment in the economy and the official data. Our estimate of the unemployment rate that accounts for the effects of the pandemic holds at 7.3%, but once we adjust that figure for those who have left the workforce, it is at 10.2%.”
Accountancy Daily, Signs of improving UK economic prospects, Sara White, 03/05/2021: The firm’s Index, an aggregated performance indicator of currency, bond and equity markets, has increased, from -0.1 below normal stress levels in Q3 2020, to a positive reading of 0.3… Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said: ‘While all credit must be given to the medical and life sciences communities for the response to deliver three workable vaccines to address the pandemic; global monetary and fiscal authorities have also been busy laying the groundwork for a recovery from the pandemic-induced economic downturn.’ Similar article also featured in Consumer Credit Magazine.
The Fiscal Times, Job Growth Jumps in February: What Does It Mean for Biden’s Relief Bill?, Michael Rainey, 03/05/2021: The U.S. labor market added 379,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department announced Friday, raising hopes that the economy is accelerating as it heads into the spring… Though the jobs report provided better-than-expected results, the U.S. economy still has a long way to go before it returns to pre-pandemic conditions – and the latest report may not be quite as good as it appears. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, wrote Friday that “the major policy takeaway from this report is that there has not been a dramatic acceleration in hiring.” Most of the new jobs simply made up for layoffs in the late fall and early winter, Brusuelas said, and job losses were recorded in the goods-producing and financial sectors, with little growth outside low-wage areas marked by temporary employment. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Washington Post, Market fall after Fed Chair Powell urges patience, Rachel Siegel, 03/04/2021: Stocks fell sharply Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell did not reassure investors that inflation and bold yields would stay under control when the pandemic ends and economic activity rebounds… “It is clear that the bond market is pricing in greater inflation on the back of economic reflation this year,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, after Powell’s remarks. “Powell went out of his way to reinstate the word ‘patient’ into the discussion on risk linked to inflation,” Brusuelas added. “That should be understood to mean that the Fed will not act to preempt the nascent economic recovery because of what is widely expected, and what Powell stated, will be a midyear increase in inflation that will be a function of year-ago base effects.” Similar article also featured in Yahoo! Finance and Benzinga.
CNBC, 10% GDP growth? The U.S. economy is on fire and is about to get stoked even more, Jeff Cox, 03/02/2021: The U.S. economy has roared back to life in 2021, with first-quarter growth set to defy even the rosiest expectations as another fresh influx of cash looms. Manufacturing data Monday showed the sector at its highest growth level since August 2018. That report from the Institute for Supply Management in turn helped confirm the notion among economists that output to start the year is far better than the low single-digit growth many had been predicting in late 2020. “You’re going to see the growth rates in the middle of the year probably close to 9%. That’s how strong the reopening of the U.S. economy will be vis-a-vis the release of pent-up demand by the household sector,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “I don’t expect the pent-up demand to all be released this year. I’m expecting it to take about two years to do that, primarily because households will be somewhat cautious about the release of cash.”
CNBC, Fed policy changes could be coming in response to bond market turmoil, economist say, 03/01/2021: While the Federal Reserve may not raise its benchmark interest rate for years, there are growing expectations it may tweak policy soon to address some of the recent tumults in the bond market. Markets worried over how things are running likely will welcome the Fed’s moves, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. In addition to the Twist implementation and adjustment on IOER, Brusuelas thinks the Fed also will increase the rate it pays on overnight repo operations from zero basis points to five. While Brusuelas said markets expected rising rates this year, “what we didn’t expect was an overreaction to the reflation of the domestic economy in the fixed income market. That clearly has gotten the attention of the Fed.” “The market would welcome the lifting of the IOER as well as any communication that it intends to twist the curve down to keep the economy on track,” he added. Also picked up in Business Telegraph.
Politico, Biden’s bubble risk: A reckoning in markets as the economy recovers, Ben White, 03/01/2021: Giant bubbles are once again inflating all over the financial world — creating a potential problem for Washington in the coming months… “I’m more concerned about the bursting of bubbles in cyber assets, gold and SPACs,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US. Similar article also picked up in Morning Money.
The Washington Post, Once Trump’s ‘enemy,’ Fed emerges as White House ally in rejecting concerns about overdoing stimulus, Rachel Siegel, 02/28/2021: As prominent economists, Republican lawmakers and some market analysts raise alarm bells about the risks of overspending and overstimulating the economy, the Biden administration has found a surprising ally: the Federal Reserve… Still, Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, shot down arguments around “group think.” Brusuelas said the Fed and Treasury is full of economists with a range of opinions and rigorous research. He noted that Powell is a Republican made chair under Trump, while Yellen is a Democrat in Biden’s White House. “Anybody who has read Powell’s speeches, or Yellen’s speeches, or Yellen’s academic work will tell you they do not share the same thoughts on all topics,” Brusuelas said, “even if right now they have the same broad analytical framework about the way policy should proceed.” Similar articles also picked up in MSN News, SF Gate and Wealth Creation Investing, among others.
CNN Business, Oil is up nearly 70% since the election, a record in the modern era, Matt Egan, 02/26/2021: The oil market is starting the Biden era with a bang. And that means Covid-weary Americans returning to the roads this spring and summer will be greeted with higher prices at the pump… "The economy will be far less sensitive to movements in the price of oil than it has been in our lifetimes," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM International. "Many of us are still prisoners of the 1970s oil price shock. But we are several economies away from then." Similar article also featured in The Times Hub.
The Wall Street Journal, Boost to Household Income Primes U.S. Economy for Stronger Growth, Josh Mitchell, 02/26/2021: Pandemic aid to households is pouring money into the U.S. economy, priming it for rapid growth this year… "The levels are off the charts," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said of the cash reserves. "You're going to see the fuel for a pretty big consumer-led boom this year, which will spill into next." He expects the economy to grow 6.5% or higher this year. Also picked up in Morningstar and Fox Business.
CNN Business, A glimmer of hope: ‘Only’ 730,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, Anneken Tappe, 02/25/2021: Another 730,000 American workers filed for first-time unemployment benefits, adjusted for seasonal swings, last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday…The Ohio and Texas drops were "due to the deep freeze that settled in across the country," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, though that didn't explain the much larger decline in warmer California. Similar articles also featured in The Hill, The Fiscal Times and The Financial Times, among others.
Axios, Priced for perfection, Dion Rabouin, 02/06/21: It would be hard for things to get much worse than 2020, but Wall Street fund managers and the general public may be pricing in too much optimism… The key to a virtuous V-shaped recovery for the economy is the ability of policymakers to get as many people vaccinated as possible, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. "My fundamental outlook since mid-2020 on this has not changed," he tells Axios. "V stands for vaccine. No vaccine, no recovery."
Washington Post, The economy gained just 49,000 jobs in January, as recover sputters amid pressure from virus, Eli Rosenberg, 02/05/21: The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a disappointing but not entirely unexpected tally that reflects the continued strain on the labor market inflected by the coronavirus. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3 percent compared with 6.7 percent in December, although the decline was driven by people leaving the workforce instead of getting jobs…“There’s no way to construe that this was not a weak jobs report,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the firm RSM. Similar articles also featured in The Fiscal Times and Yahoo! Finance, among others.
Yahoo! Finance, How economists are reacting to January’s jobs report, 02/05/21: Dana Peterson — The Conference Board’s chief economist — and Joe Brusuelas — RSM Chief Economist — join Yahoo Finance Live to weigh in on January’s jobs report, which missed expectations.
BBC News, US job growth sluggish as virus hampers recovery, 02/05/21: The US economy added just 49,000 jobs in January as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hamper recovery. Losses hit workers at retail stores, restaurants, casinos and hotels, in a sign that analysts said underscored the need for further economic relief…"The soft January US employment report strongly implies that the next round of fiscal aid/stimulus needs to be error on the side of caution and go big," economist Joseph Brusuelas, of the RSM accounting and consultancy firm, wrote on Twitter. "Outside of professional business and services hiring this report is undeniably weak." Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
MarketWatch, Biden says he could deliver $1.9 trillion aid package without Republican support, Victor Reklaitis, 02/05/21: President Joe Biden on Friday continued to make the case for his $1.9 trillion relief plan, with his pitch coming after a monthly employment report showed the U.S. economy added a meager 49,000 jobs in January…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, indicated some support for the president’s view as he assessed the latest jobs report. “The soft January US employment report strongly implies that the next round of fiscal aid/stimulus needs to avoid an error on the side of caution and go big. Outside of professional business and services hiring this report is undeniably weak,” Brusuelas said in a tweet. Also picked up in Morningstar.
Washington Examiner, Biden and Democrats maneuvering to check box on $2,000 checks pledge, Tyler Van Dyke, 02/05/21: President Biden again shifted what he meant when he promised to send $2,000 checks "out the door" as he negotiates with Congress over his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting firm RSM, told the Washington Examiner that the $1,400 checks were "absolutely critical for households down the income ladder where economic conditions resemble a depression and not the modest recovery in process for the middle class and upper two quintiles of income earnings."
Sportico, Tampa Bay Expects Super Bowl Boost Despite COVID and Hometown Bucs, Randall Williams and Eben Novy-Williams, 02/02/21: Buccaneers fans are living a dream, as their team is the first to play a home game in the Super Bowl. And the knee-jerk reaction is that what’s good for the team, and good for the fans, is good for the area’s business community. But that’s not what a lot of researchers have said…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US, agrees. “The truth is, the hotels just don’t see the action—nor do the restaurants, nor do the bars, nor do the movie theaters, nor do the theme parks,” he said. “You’re just not going to get the same amount of people coming in from across the country.” Also picked up in Yahoo! Sports.
TD Ameritrade, Joe Brusuelas On The Impact Of U.S Personal Income On Economic Recovery, 02/02/21: RSM’s Joe Brusuelas says that "we are going to see growth rates like we have not seen since the Reagan and Clinton eras.” What are the expectations for another economic stimulus package?
USA Today, Shoppers face shortages of cars, shirts and smart speakers amid COVID-19 shipping delays, Paul Davidson, 02/01/21: Big Hammer Wines has about 20% less inventory than normal these days, forcing the restaurants, retailers and online customers who normally patronize the wine seller to choose alternative brands or find another supplier…That’s coming, though, economists say. The consumer price index, which rose a modest 1.4% annually in December, will likely be up 2.7% to 3% – above the Fed’s rough 2% target – by midyear, says Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for consulting firm RSM. Yet he expects the increase to last just several months until manufacturers ramp up production capacity.
Seeking Alpha, Big banks await Fed decision on whether it extends a rule at the end of March, Liz Kiesche, 01/31/21: A rule that the Fed imposed to promote liquidity and smooth functioning of the U.S. Treasury and funding markets is set to expire on March 31, 2021, and the decision on whether to extend it could have big implications for 14 large banks and for the U.S. Treasury markets…Note: FRA/OIS is a measure of potential stress in banking that shows the difference for funding unsecured three-month agreements required of lenders vs. the overnight indexed swap rate, a risk-free rate based on the federal funds rate economist Joseph Brusuelas explains on the RSM Real Economy blog.
Axios, 2020 was the economy's worst year since 1946, Courtenay Brown, 01/28/21: One of the last major economic report cards of the Trump era lends perspective to the historic damage caused by the pandemic, which continued to weigh on growth in the final quarter of 2020…The report "represents a major disappointment and hit to the nascent recovery in the domestic economy," Joseph Brusuelas, an economist at RSM, wrote in a note. Similar articles also featured in Morningstar, MarketScreener and Newser.
The Week, U.S. economy shrinks by 3.5 percent in 2020, the worst contraction since 1946, 01/28/21: The U.S. economy amid the COVID-19 pandemic just had its worst year in over seven decades. The Commerce Department on Thursday said the U.S. economy shrank by 3.5 percent in 2020, resulting in the worst year for growth since 1946, The Washington Post reports. This was also the U.S. economy's first yearly contraction since 2009 amid the Great Recession. The report represented a "major disappointment and hit to the nascent recovery in the domestic economy," RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas said, per Axios. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Publishers Daily, Former 'WSJ.Magazine' Publisher Bahrenburg To Lead 'Robb Report' Luxury Sales, Rob Williams, 01/25/21: Penske Media Corp. named Luke Bahrenburg as executive vice president-Chief Revenue Officer, Robb Report. He also is head of luxury sales at the publisher's art media titles, including ARTnews and Art in America…“We are on the verge of a luxury products boom," Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM US LLP, said in an interview. "There is ample pent-up demand for luxury goods.”
Yahoo! Finance, Engaging the Biden administration on trade will be key to Canada's long-term economic fortunes, shows latest RSM Canada report, 01/19/21: RSM Canada ("RSM"), the leading global provider of audit, tax and consulting services focused on middle market businesses, today launched its first 2021 issue of "The Real Economy: Canada" – a quarterly report that provides Canadian businesses with economic analysis and insights into factors driving growth, or economic headwinds, in Canada's middle market…Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP, added: "Once the vaccine is in place and case numbers drop down, we'll start to see the Canadian economy gradually reopen and when you pair that with a stronger, more fruitful trade relationship with the U.S., we're in a good place to see robust growth over the next two years.” Similar articles also featured in Canadian Accountant and Markets Insider, among others.
The Fiscal Times, Unemployment Claims Surge Along With the Coronavirus, Michael Rainey, 01/15/21: About 965,000 people filed initial jobless claims in state unemployment systems last week, the Department of Labor announced Thursday…Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM, said that with more than 18 million people receiving some kind of unemployment assistance, more help from the federal government will be needed. “Despite those who make the case that all is well and that no additional aid is necessary, we think that this data affirms the necessity for another round of fiscal aid,” Brusuelas wrote. Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
The Wall Street Journal, WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Growth Will Exceed 4% in 2021, Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros, 01/14/21: The U.S. economy will grow 4.3% this year, as the country exits the grip of the coronavirus pandemic, economists forecast in a Wall Street Journal survey…“No vaccine, no recovery,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP, said. “The discovery of a vaccine will likely unleash over $1 trillion in excess savings that will satiate pent up demand.”
CNN Business, US debt surged by $7 trillion under Trump. It will go much higher under Biden, Matt Egan, 01/14/21: President Donald Trump certainly lived up to his self-proclaimed status as the King of Debt during his term in office. The national debt spiked by $7 trillion during Trump's tenure -- and it's about to soar much higher under his successor…"This is not the time to tighten the belt. The economy is in no condition for austerity," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Politico, Why impeachment matters, Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver, 01/13/21: The big idea: why state and local money matters — RSM’s Joe Brusuelas: “More than 1.3 million state and local government jobs have been lost since December 2019. While this is the result of a broader economic shock across industrial sectors, we expect additional furloughs in state and local governments unless federal aid is quickly put in place to offset the collapse in tax revenues. Unless there is aid put forward in the near term, another 1.5 million public sector jobs could be at risk. Although a windfall from capital gains taxes linked to elevated equity valuations have provided modest relief to beleaguered state and local government budgets, the situation is still dire.”
CNBC, 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 1.1% to start the week, Yun Li and Vicky McKeever, 01/11/21: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped above 1.1% on Monday, extending its recent advance on bets that more Covid-19 stimulus is coming…“The loss of momentum in the labor market is clear, and those who previously worked in retail, restaurants, entertainment, leisure and hospitality, as well as public sector workers in state and local governments, have paid the price,” wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
Yahoo! Finance, Second Trump impeachment has ‘little direct impact’ on the economy: Brusuelas, 01/11/21: RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the implications of a second impeachment of President Donald Trump, and his insights on the prospect of a stimulus package, and current downsides to the U.S. economy.
Politico, Reversing job market opens door to larger Biden stimulus, Ben White, 01/08/21: The latest coronavirus wave slammed the U.S. economy in December, wiping out 140,000 jobs, raising pressure to accelerate vaccinations and blowing the door open for President-elect Joe Biden and a narrowly Democratic Congress to push for even more stimulus spending within weeks…“With the elections in Georgia giving control to the Democrats, we should expect to get a fairly large and targeted fiscal aid package in the first quarter of the year which investors clearly have seized on,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at consulting firm RSM. “We are going to get a targeted fiscal aid package quickly then another stimulus package and then infrastructure. And these are all huge things.”
The Fiscal Times, Jobs Recovery Falters in December, Michael Rainey, 01/08/21: U.S. payrolls shrank by 140,000 in December, bringing the jobs expansion that started in April to a halt, the Department of Labor announced Friday…The reversal in the labor market should be short-lived, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the consulting firm RSM. “While the trend in hiring has slowed in recent months — December’s decline was the first since April — we expect that this is more of a temporary lull in hiring than the breakout of a new trend that results in soaring unemployment,” Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “Rather, we expect that mass vaccine distribution this year will create the conditions for faster growth and employment." Also picked up in Yahoo! Finance.
Marketplace, Wages spike in the pandemic — but it’s just a fluke, Mitchell Hartman, 01/04/21: The December jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department is expected to show continued strong wage gains compared to the pace of gains in the pre-pandemic economy…“What that was, was noise, not signal,” explained Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, a consulting firm focused on small- and middle-market businesses. Brusuelas said that fast-rising wages have been a statistical anomaly of the pandemic economy. While most higher-paid professionals have kept working from home and held on to their paychecks, millions of lower-paid service workers have lost their jobs and income.