Nonprofits should plan for a concentrated and uneven fundraising environment

U.S. charitable giving has surpassed $600 billion in current dollars for the first time, reaching a record $617.2 billion in 2025, according to Giving USA. The organization found that giving increased 5.7% from the prior year and 3% after adjusting for inflation. 

While these numbers reflect continued resilience across the nonprofit sector, leaders should not assume that fundraising growth is broad-based or evenly distributed. The data points to a giving environment increasingly shaped by market performance, large donors, foundations, bequests and donor advised funds (DAFs), while participation among everyday donors continues to face pressure.

Historically, charitable giving has closely mirrored overall economic conditions, and 2025 was no exception. U.S. gross domestic product grew 5% in current dollars, compared with a 5.7% increase in total charitable giving. Giving also represented 2% of GDP in 2025, consistent with levels seen throughout much of the past decade. 

Based on that historical ratio, expected year-over-year GDP growth of 2.1% would imply total charitable giving of approximately $673 billion in 2026, representing 4.1% growth from 2025.

The decline in individual giving

Disposable personal income is often one of the strongest indicators of giving capacity because it reflects the resources households have available after taxes. While overall charitable giving increased in 2025, the composition of that growth continues to shift. According to Giving USA, individuals still represented the largest source of philanthropy, accounting for 64% of total giving, or $394 billion. However, that share has steadily declined over time as foundations, bequests and other philanthropic vehicles account for a larger portion of total charitable dollars. 

As individual participation declines, larger donors are supplying a growing share of charitable dollars. Giving USA reported approximately $19 billion in megagifts during 2025, continuing a level of activity that has remained elevated since the pandemic. 

Giving USA’s data suggests that the traditional pattern, in which roughly 80% of donations come from 20% of donors, has shifted, with a larger share coming from a small percentage of donors. For nonprofit organizations, this trend heightens donor concentration risk. Strong fundraising results may increasingly depend on a smaller number of major donors, making stewardship, relationship management and succession planning more critical than ever.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act may broaden donor participation by creating or expanding incentives for a wider range of taxpayers to make charitable contributions. However, the impact may be mixed. While more households could be encouraged to give, overall charitable giving could decline because other tax law changes may reduce giving capacity or weaken the benefit of larger charitable deductions. 

For nonprofits, this creates a planning environment in which donor counts may improve even as total dollars become more difficult to predict, making it important to monitor both participation trends and average gift size when updating fundraising forecasts.

DAFs, which are included within individual giving, continue to be one of the fastest-growing charitable vehicles. As assets accumulate in these accounts, nonprofits that understand how to identify and engage DAF donors may have greater access to future grant opportunities.

Equity markets, foundations and bequests create tailwinds

Even as donor participation declined in 2025, several factors fueled growth in donation amounts:

Equity markets

Strong equity markets continued to bolster charitable capacity. Giving USA research has consistently found a strong relationship between stock market performance and charitable donations. 

Foundations

Foundation giving benefited from years of asset appreciation. Foundation grantmaking has increased every year for the past 15 years, reaching a record $117.2 billion in 2025. While annual growth rates have been moderate, the cumulative effect has been substantial, with foundation giving nearly tripling since 2010. 

Bequests

Bequests remain a significant and growing source of momentum for charitable giving. In 2025, giving by bequest increased 19.7%, with three of the last four years seeing growth of 20% or more.

This growth is largely driven by the great wealth transfer, as trillions of dollars pass from older generations to heirs, families and charitable organizations. 

As a result, planned gifts may become an increasingly important revenue source for nonprofits. Organizations should cultivate long-term donor relationships, focus on planned giving strategies and clearly communicate opportunities for donor legacy programs. 

What nonprofit leaders should do now

The Giving USA data presents several planning opportunities for nonprofit organizations. As giving becomes more concentrated among major donors, foundations, bequests and DAFs, nonprofits should consider how donor engagement strategies need to evolve. Leaders should focus on the following: 

• Refresh fundraising forecasts and reassess how shifts in funding sources may affect the organization.
• Stress-test assumptions tied to major donors and foundations.
• Assess how DAF donors are identified and stewarded, given continued growth in this giving vehicle.
• Respond to growth in crowdfunding and peer-to-peer giving platforms. 
• Communicate impact clearly across multiple giving vehicles to maintain donor trust and engagement.
• Update board dashboards to include key performance indicators. 
• Evaluate whether current fundraising technology and donor analytics are sufficient to identify, cultivate and retain supporters.  
• Align reserve and liquidity planning with campaign timing, grant cycles and anticipated fundraising volatility to better manage cash flow while pursuing long-term growth opportunities.

Planning for a new fundraising reality

The nonprofit industry is moving forward, but it can’t rely on momentum alone. Growth is increasingly driven by market performance, major gifts, foundations, bequests and DAFs rather than broad-based donor participation. 

Nonprofits should continue to be bold in their fundraising efforts, make larger asks where appropriate, invest in technology and donor data analytics, and develop strategies that balance major donor opportunities with long-term donor pipeline development. Organizations that plan for this new reality will be best positioned to succeed in an increasingly concentrated and uneven fundraising environment.