From vintage to vital: The impact of aging aircraft in modern aviation

Challenges are emerging for the aviation industry as the global aircraft fleet ages. Despite a sharp rebound in post-pandemic travel, with a record number of air travelers expected in 2024, the supply chain is taking longer to recover, with disruptions and production issues continuing to plague aircraft manufacturers.

The backlog for new aircraft continues to set record highs, and labor shortages, scarcity of critical components and an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape have contributed to a prolonged and inefficient production cycle for new aircraft builds. Quality control issues among the world’s largest aircraft manufacturers are also contributing to operational delays, rising costs and regulatory pressure. As a result, older aircraft will be expected to fly longer to meet travel demand, which brings a distinct set of challenges for aerospace parts suppliers, as well as for the maintenance, repairs and overhaul (MRO) market.

Against this backdrop, suppliers will need to innovate to meet increasing demand, reach sustainability goals and protect profits. Older-aircraft viability and supply chain resiliency are a top concern, and companies must digitalize and automate to stay relevant and maintain a competitive edge. 

Parts and repairs

As the average aircraft age increases, so does the demand for spare parts and MRO services, which are essential for keeping existing aircraft available, reliable and in service longer. Increased demand for MRO services will intensify the strain on an overextended repair services network. Thirty-eight percent of current aviation maintenance technicians are aged 60 or over, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. As workers age out, there will be a growing talent shortfall to service demand.

Given these pressures on suppliers, companies must be proactive in optimizing inventory to address changing demands and to ensure connectivity in their sales and order planning processes. Aircraft manufacturers and suppliers track spare parts throughout their life cycles, maintaining information such as hours flown, maintenance history, inspection data and airworthiness certificates for operational safety and compliance purposes.

Companies are increasingly turning to radio frequency identification and related technologies to provide real-time insights and digitalize inventory records, which increases traceability, expedites repairs, prevents unapproved substitutions and enhances safety. Data analytics can improve order flow by assisting companies in quickly matching part needs with existing inventory and improving the lead time on out-of-stock parts.

For data-intensive MRO companies that work with aerospace parts suppliers, emerging technologies can make diagnosing problems across a multitude of source documents more efficient. Companies that explore artificial intelligence tools to reduce the amount of time required to diagnose engine repairs will be best positioned to monetize the anticipated uptick in aircraft maintenance demand. Using AI to review maintenance logs, repair history, service reports and warranty information, as well as to provide actionable insights, allows for quicker decision-making, saving technicians valuable time. Companies might consider using AI chatbots to train new technicians or to upgrade existing employees’ institutional knowledge and expertise.

Sustainability and costs

In addition to facing parts and repairs pressures, the aviation industry is navigating sustainability and cost efficiency challenges when it comes to fuel. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—a “drop-in” fuel that uses biomass in addition to petroleum and is compatible with existing aero engines—is a game changer, with superior energy densities and lower particulate emissions, but aging aircraft fleets are often not compatible with SAF. Additionally, the high maintenance costs of older fleets can offset SAF’s cost advantages.

Despite SAF’s higher cost (approximately 2.5 times more than conventional jet fuel), the SAF market is projected to skyrocket from $72.1 million in 2020 to nearly $6.3 billion by 2030, according to Allied Market Research. The aviation industry has already made substantial investments in SAF; forward purchase agreements for SAF totaled $13 billion in 2021, a significant increase from $2.5 billion in 2016, according to the International Air Transport Association. Air Canada recently announced a $50 million investment in SAF over the next decade, further underscoring this commitment.

Even with that incentive, aerospace leaders will need to make significant changes rapidly to keep pace with evolving regulatory demands. Aviation represents 11% of the United States’ transportation-related emissions, according to the White House. Without proactive measures, aviation’s share of emissions is likely to increase, and amid record-high air travel, the adoption of SAF is necessary for a sustainable future.