Independent forecasts suggest oil prices may fall below what companies expect in 2026.
Key takeaways
Energy infrastructure across North America is aging and struggling to meet growing demand.
Energy companies are increasingly adopting analytical AI technologies, including machine learning.
What is the energy outlook?
RSM’s energy outlook provides insights into the major trends shaping the U.S. energy sector throughout the year. If West Texas Intermediate oil prices below $55 materialize and are sustained in 2026, a contraction in oil production is likely, with ripple effects across the energy sector. Companies across the value chain need to analyze and forecast their own exposure to this likelihood and identify ways they can prepare now to weather and even capitalize on a potential slowdown. Other trends include grid modernization for legacy energy infrastructure and shifting U.S. energy policies.
Energy trend #1: 2026 oil and gas outlook: Reconciling industry forecasts with company consensus
Recent independent forecasts for 2026 oil prices suggest they may fall well below the levels oil companies expect, according to the Q3 Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The gap between company expectations and industry forecasts is closing but still notable. In early 2025, survey respondents expected oil prices to be around $70 per barrel in 2026. That expectation has since fallen to an average of $64—but major independent forecasters project 2026 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to be in the low- to mid-$50s per barrel.
While still hoping for an upside surprise in 2026, companies across the North American oil ecosystem should develop their strategy now for the possibility that these lower-than-expected U.S. oil prices materialize in the coming months.
Energy trend #2: Grid modernization: Digital solutions to legacy energy infrastructure
The electric grid across North America is facing a period of significant stress and change, with a variety of constraints and pressures. For utilities looking to address these challenges, an “all of the above” approach is necessary: increasing capacity through new infrastructure for all types of energy, updating existing infrastructure, and modernizing the grid with emerging technology solutions.
Energy trend #3: Impacts of executive actions and policies on energy
Since January, the U.S. administration has put forth a series of executive actions—ranging from executive orders to tariff announcements—that clearly signal a new direction in domestic energy policy. This new approach favors growth in fossil fuels and electricity while scaling back the support that renewable energy had under the prior administration.
Uncertainties remain in the specific implementation of these new policies, so we approach these actions in the same way that energy business leaders should: by considering the general direction set by the administration as well as the market and policy forces that will shape the final outcomes.
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