What the 2026 U.S. midterm elections could mean for consumer products businesses

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, RSM is examining the economic stakes and key issues for various industries. This article is part of that series.

The outcome of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections will help shape the policy landscape facing U.S. businesses through the remainder of the decade. Changes in congressional control, oversight priorities and state-level policymaking could influence everything from taxes and funding programs to regulation, workforce issues and investment decisions.

Here’s a look at the potential implications for consumer products businesses.

The top issue for consumer products

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Farm Bill reauthorization: Current Farm Bill authorities expired Sept. 30, 2026. The House passed its version in April, and the Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its bill along party lines in September. Whether Congress reauthorizes the bill during the lame-duck session, extends current law again or leaves the issue to the next Congress may depend on the election results.

Meanwhile, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act reduces federal SNAP spending and shifts costs to the states in phases beginning Oct. 1. Reduced purchasing power among lower-income households could have the greatest effect on food and beverage companies, value-oriented consumer brands and companies with significant exposure to grocery, convenience and discount channels.

In the near term, expect shifts in consumer demand and product mix. Over the longer term, federal budget uncertainty may reshape state funding priorities and consumer assistance programs.

Implications for future legislation

Control of Congress will determine whether trade, payments and workforce-related policy advances or stalls. A divided Congress is likely to produce more messaging bills than laws, but those efforts can signal where policy priorities may head over the next four years. Key pressure points for the consumer products industry include:

• Tariffs and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA): The U.S. declined to extend the USMCA during the July 2026 joint review. The agreement now runs on annual reviews and expires in 2036 unless all three governments agree to extend it. Additional tariffs or changes to North American trade rules could affect sourcing costs, supply chain strategies and pricing.
• Credit card interchange: The Credit Card Competition Act, reintroduced in January 2026, would require the largest card issuers to enable a second unaffiliated network and provide merchants routing choices, affecting payment processing costs for retailers, restaurants and direct-to-consumer brands.
• Artificial intelligence framework: The administration is pursuing a more self-regulatory approach to manage the risk associated with new AI models. Congress has twice declined to enact preemption measures, leaving state laws in effect.
• Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC): The credit expired at the end of 2025. States are certifying 2026 hires pending reauthorization, and Congress has retroactively addressed previous lapses.

Consideration for business leaders: How much sourcing, pricing, payments and hiring strategy to commit to before trade and tax outcomes are clear.

Other top issues for consumer products

Oversight and enforcement: Congressional oversight activity may increase regardless of which party controls government and can signal future regulatory priorities. Consumer products businesses should watch developments from the U.S. Trade Representative and the Commerce Department for trade, tariffs and sourcing matters; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau for payment practices; and, depending on product category, the Food and Drug Administration, Federal Trade Commission and Consumer Product Safety Commission.

Environmental compliance: Federal policy is easing some regulatory requirements while state and international obligations tighten. According to Bloomberg, refrigerant requirements eased in May 2026, an estimated $800 million saving for supermarkets, but state rules and equipment lifecycles may not follow the federal timeline. The European Union Deforestation Regulation takes effect by the end of 2026, imposing traceability requirements on palm oil, cocoa, coffee, soy and cattle for companies exporting to the EU or selling to EU-domiciled customers.

State policy: About 80% of November races are for state and local offices, including 36 governorships. Those officials will shape how consumer products are made, packaged and sold.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture approved waivers in 23 states barring SNAP purchases of items such as soda and candy. In June, a federal court vacated five of those waivers, ruling that the USDA lacked authority to approve them.
• Seven states have enacted packaging extended Producer Responsibility Laws. Producers now pay fees in Oregon and Colorado, and lawmakers in at least 13 states filed bills this year.
• Texas will require warning labels on foods containing certain additives, including synthetic colors, starting with 2027 packaging. California has banned certain food colorants in foods served in schools.

By the numbers

$186 billion: The Congressional Budget Office projects the OBBBA will reduce federal SNAP spending by roughly $186 billion over 10 years, with costs shifting to states beginning Oct. 1. The resulting pressure on lower-income purchasing power could reshape demand across grocery, convenience and discount channels.

What middle market businesses can do now

• Model demand scenarios: Stress-test sales and product mix in grocery, convenience and discount channels against SNAP reductions and state cost shifts.
• Evaluate payment processing costs: For retail, restaurant and direct-to-consumer channels, estimate how network routing competition under the Credit Card Competition Act could change processing costs, as well as how it could shift customer payment behavior and card-linked loyalty programs.
• Map tariff exposure: Review supplier diversification, nearshoring options and pricing strategies under scenarios involving additional tariffs or changes to the USMCA.
• Review algorithmic pricing tools: Identify where software sets or personalizes prices, the data it uses (consumer or competitor) and the states in which the tools operate. California, Connecticut, Maryland and New Jersey have enacted restrictions, some already in effect, while other states are likely to be watching.
• Decide refrigerant projects deliberately: Weigh state rules and equipment lifecycles when making decisions about refrigerant-related projects rather than defaulting to deferral.
• Document compliance readiness: Review EU deforestation traceability requirements, state packaging fee obligations and food additive labeling requirements. Keep WOTC certifications current for 2026 hires pending reauthorization.