Growth, inflation and hiring are all cooling in the United States, which will most likely define the second half of the year as the Federal Reserve gets ready to reduce its restrictive policy rate.
In the July-August issue of The Real Economy, RSM’s economists Joe Brusuelas and Tuan Nguyen offer their outlook for the remainder of the year. They see growth easing to a more sustainable 1.8%, unemployment edging up to 4.2% and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation easing to 2.3%. It will all set the stage for the Fed to pivot away from its restrictive monetary policy to one that encourages growth.
Also in this issue, RSM’s economists and analysts take a deeper look at the labor market, which has come into balance; the changing dynamics of trade; and the challenging cost environment for middle market businesses.
