The Real Economy: March 2025

A new mercantilism emerges in the global economy

A rebalancing is happening in the global economy with the adoption of protectionist policies amid rising tensions between the U.S. and China, writes RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas in the March issue of The Real Economy.

Countries are looking out for their own interests amid these mounting trade tensions. Call it the new mercantilism—rooted in tariffs and trade protection—as nations embrace tariffs to protect their industries, Brusuelas writes.

Additionally, the U.S.-China trade tensions are reaching other nations, further intensifying the trade conflict. Investors, firm managers and policymakers should expect an increase in currency manipulation as other economies seek to gain competitive trade advantages.

The U.S. and its trade bloc are trying to rebalance the global economy through unilateral measures organized around the use of tariffs that raise the cost of accessing the American market.
Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP

Also in this issue, RSM's Peter Ramer analyzes the impact of tariffs on middle market businesses, and Mike Graziano explains why an expected boom in M&A activity among consumer products companies has yet to materialize.

We look at these topics and more in this issue of The Real Economy.

Inside the March issue

Perspective
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the United States, the new administration has set out to change this equation with nothing less than a rebalancing of the global economy.
Article
Consumer products M&A update: Rebound remains out of reach
Uncertainty over rates, weakness among some consumers and sticky inflation all contributed to muted activity.
Article
The impact of tariffs: Balancing costs, supply chains and profitability
Without a shift in production, tariffs simply increase costs, reduce supply choices lead to higher consumer prices.

RSM contributors

The Real Economy Livestream series

Tariffs, trade and other economic trends

Join RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Neil Bradley as they discuss the latest economic trends affecting middle market businesses.

Friday, March 14, 2025 | 1 p.m. ET

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Timely economic analysis and trends to help middle market businesses succeed

Special Report

The RSM Middle Market Sustainability Survey 2024: U.S. and Canada

Numerous regulations are making sustainability a larger compliance issue.

Tax incentives are one part of companies’ broader decarbonization efforts.

Training is the most common action taken toward compliance, but also the top hurdle.

Also from The Real Economy

Monthly economic analysis report for the US middle market
Perspective
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the United States, the new administration has set out to change this equation with nothing less than a rebalancing of the global economy.
Perspective
Rising rates and volatility signal a regime change in the global economy
The era of low inflation and low interest rates has given way to a new regime of scarce capital and higher inflation.
Perspective
Global economic outlook for 2025: Modest growth amid trade tensions
Global growth in 2025 will expand at a modest 2.5% pace as the sluggish recovery from the pandemic continues, according to our forecast.
Perspective
To contend with higher tariffs, businesses need to act now
With higher tariffs likely under the incoming Trump administration, businesses are already making decisions in a way that will affect economic growth and reshape the global economy.
Perspective
Identifying countries at risk as the dollar surges
Over the past year the real trade-weighted dollar index has appreciated 6.88% because of a combination of interest rate differentials, strong growth and expectations of reduced regulation, lower taxes and increased government spending.
Perspective
The U.S. economic year ahead
Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change.

The Real Economy Blog

The Real Economy Blog was developed to provide timely economic insights about the middle market economy. It is offered as a complement to RSM’s macroeconomic thought leadership, including The Real Economy monthly publication and the proprietary RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI).

The voice of the middle market

Middle market organizations, which make up the “real economy,” are too big to be small and too small to be big. They have distinct challenges and opportunities around resources, labor, technology, innovation, regulation and more.