United States

U.S. unemployment rate likely to decline to 4 percent


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The U.S. labor market is on a roll and we do not anticipate anything causing it to abate. While, we do expect a more modest pace of growth around 155,000, below the 195,000 consensus forecast, in March, following the blowout 313,000 gain in February, we do expect a decline in the unemployment rate to 4 percent on the month. The detail in the report should reflect a more modest pace of expansion following the February data especially in goods producing, construction, business services, government and retail trade, which all saw outsized increases well above trend. In our estimation, this does place some risk of a slower top-line expansion in March below our 155,000 projection.

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