United States

Jobs report will likely paint robust picture of labor market health

BLS metrics on wages understating broader gains for households


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We anticipate the U.S. economy will generate 237,000 jobs in February driven mostly by gains in the service sector and strong additions in higher paying goods producing and manufacturing, while the unemployment rate should fall to 4 percent.

Following a weather-inspired reduced total aggregate hours worked in January, we anticipate those hours to increase, however, that should slightly suppress average hourly earnings on a year-ago basis which will increase at a 2.8 percent pace. The gains in hours and overall wages, although, should support strong U.S. household spending, which through the end of the first month of the year, is increasing at a 3.6 percent average annualized pace.

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