United States

Economy showing signs of acceleration


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Economic data point to an acceleration of growth in 2018, driven by solid consumer spending and improvement in outlays on capital expenditures. There is now some wind behind the sails of the U.S. economy, and solid growth should result in greater resource utilization in an economy operating above its long-term trend.

Our view, based on our recession probability model, is there is only about a 15 percent chance of a recession during the next 12 months. Meanwhile, we expect wage growth should move above 4 percent with core inflation finally moving toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target by the end of 2018.

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