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Weekly Market Commentary

October 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

The U.S. equity freight train: Can anything derail it?

At the close of Q3 2018, the S&P 500 index continued to show dominance over international equity peers. Will this trend continue?

  • October 22, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Dow Jones Industrial average drops 1,300 points last week

Given anxiety surrounding the markets’ recent pullback, how should investors respond? It’s all about perspective and your long-term plan.

  • October 15, 2018

September 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

The great American jobs machine rolls on

In August, 201,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.9 percent, marking 95 months of consecutive job growth.

August 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Retail sales and productivity show economy firing on all cylinders

Sustained job creation, robust retail sales and improving productivity indicate the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Capital markets outlook and long-term themes: Midyear update

As we round the corner into the second half of 2018, we’ve provided a mid-year update and insights into capital markets themes and outlook.

  • August 13, 2018

July 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

July employment report: Demand for workers remains strong

A major narrative to emerge from the July employment report will likely be the solid, if not spectacular, growth in average hourly earnings.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

U.S. labor market: Few fireworks in robust June jobs report

Trade, automation and transport are important labor market areas to watch going forward for middle market businesses.

June 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Momentous Fed meeting: Policymakers face narrowing margin for error

This week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting is a major economic event that will set in motion a series of monetary policy decisions.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Labor market sizzles: Unemployment rate matches 48-year low

The U.S. economy continued to add jobs at a sizzling pace in May as the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent.

May 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

What to watch: Fed minutes, new home sales, durable goods

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be of interest this week, along with data on new home sales and durable goods.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Retail sales rebound modestly to start second quarter

After a sluggish first quarter of outlays, consumers kicked off the second quarter of 2018 with a modest boost to the pace of retail sales.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Tight labor market reflects difficulty of finding available workers

The U.S. labor market has tightened to the point where employers are having difficulty finding qualified and available workers.

April 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

U.S. employment report preview: Jobs growth resurgent in April

The seasonal inspired U.S. employment slowdown in March should trigger an above-trend payback in April. Learn more.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Will the U.S.-China trade spat escalate into a trade war?

Trade frictions between the U.S. and China could spill over into a full blown trade war. Economic distortions will be closely watched.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

March payroll report reveals the shape of things to come

The labor market has been a volatile one, growing at a pace of 211,100 over the past six months, a rate that is likely unsustainable.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

U.S. unemployment rate likely to decline to 4 percent

The United States labor market continues to be on a roll; however, it’s likely we’ll see a more modest pace of growth.

March 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Trade developments to dominate week ahead

Investors remain attuned to developments in international trade and the rate increase, while also eyeing inflation data due this week.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Fed expected to raise rates, project three additional hikes this year

Federal Reserve may hike the federal funds rate while also revising up its forecast on growth, inflation and employment. Learn more.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Jobs report will likely paint robust picture of labor market health

The U.S. economy will likely generate 237,000 jobs in February driven by gains in the service sector and higher paying goods manufacturing.

February 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

In times of market anxiety, a financial plan can help investors

A financial plan can help investors evaluate the real impacts of short-term market fluctuations on long-term planning.

  • Michael Montag
  • |
  • February 19, 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Equities look for bottom, investors a break from volatility

While many agree a correction was in order, recent financial market activity has been a volatile ride for investors. What’s the impact?

January 2018

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

U.S. gross domestic product and other economic projections for 2018

Projections shared on U.S. gross domestic product, capital expenditures, Federal Reserve rate hikes and trade for 2018.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Labor market continues to post solid gains

Job gains will continue to put considerable downward pressure on the U.S. unemployment rate in the near term and in 2018.

December 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

December Fed meeting and anticipated economic projections for 2018

Economic projections for 2018 include modest revisions to the growth forecast and unemployment rates. Learn more.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Economy showing signs of acceleration

Economic growth continues to increase, driven by consumer spending and improvement in outlays on capital expenditures.

November 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

U.S. manufacturing expansion sustained

The recent Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Index implies robust expansion in the sector will continue.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Modest payback for disaster disruption to autumn hiring

Employment data from the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics distorted due to recent hurricanes and California wildfires.

October 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

New Fed chair may be announced; investors remain in a bullish mood

Investors remain in a bullish mood and await another major week of earnings, key policy decisions and a possible new Federal Reserve chair.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Fresh economic data on manufacturing, housing and jobless claims

Investors will observe a major week of corporate earnings and first-tier economic releases on inflation, manufacturing, housing and jobs.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Corporate earnings to set tone for week ahead

Beyond the major corporate earnings releases, several important economic reports will be released, including initial jobless claims.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Expect data on manufacturing, labor, vehicle sales and consumer credit

The week will feature a spate of data affected by the recent number of large hurricanes to hit Texas, Florida and the U.S. Caribbean.

September 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Improved consumer spending and capital expenditures likely boost GDP

Economic data this week features updates on consumer confidence, housing, growth, income and spending, and weekly jobless claims.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors will see housing data, jobless claims and FOMC updates

The Federal Reserve meeting will dominate the week amidst a spate of first-tier data releases on housing, jobless claims and more.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Market gains likely despite hurricanes

Markets are poised for a week of gains despite the lingering damage from Harvey and Irma. Solid underlying economic fundamentals continue.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Harvey's aftermath and the impact on the economy

Focus will be on estimates of damage and lost economic activity in Houston and elsewhere following the catastrophe along the Gulf Coast.

August 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors weigh Hurricane Harvey's impact on the economy and markets

The week ahead in financial markets will focus on damage estimates to Houston and the impact on the U.S. economy.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Political crisis and policy reform concerns top of mind this week

Financial markets will likely be driven by a combination of the growing sense of political crisis and pending monetary policy.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Week ahead: Market melt up likely to continue

Following another strong U.S. jobs report, equity markets will likely continue to melt up this week on the back of a solid economy.

July 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Slight increases expected in personal income and spending

Investors will get fresh information on the housing sector, income, spending, manufacturing conditions and the pace of hiring and firing.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

This week: Economic releases, corporate earnings and GDP estimate

Look for top-tier economic releases, a heavy slate of corporate earnings and the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision this week.

June 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Consumer sentiment remains solid heading into the second half of 2017

Consumer sentiment remains solid with a modest spending increase anticipated due to falling gasoline prices, strong hiring and wage gains.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Housing market reacts to tightening finance and supply constraints

While the housing market remains healthy, the combination of tightening finance and supply constraints has dampened sales of used homes.

Passive investing is not a passive exercise

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Passive investing is not a passive exercise

U.S. investment-grade bonds and rate risk provides an example for the need for prudent due diligence and care to manage risk.

  • June 07, 2017

May 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Demand for goods and services grows following lackluster Q1

A rebound in demand for goods and services by U.S. households could signal further growth following lackluster improvement last quarter.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors weigh U.S. political risks and fundamental economic data

Financial markets will likely be organized around measuring domestic U.S. political risk and the evolution of core economic data.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Fresh information on housing, jobless claims and manufacturing

New information on the housing market, residential investment, industrial production, jobless claims and regional manufacturing this week.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Elections, business and consumer confidence and retail sales

Investors will be watching geopolitical events as well as reports on small business sentiment, consumer confidence and retails sales.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Major firm earnings releases expected this week

This week in financial markets figures to be quite volatile as a cacophony of Q1 2017 earnings releases will be published.

April 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Politics, home sales, consumer confidence and GDP analysis

Political risk will dominate the concerns of global investors this week, along with a variety of economic reports in the U.S. and abroad.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors weigh industry, housing and jobs amid geopolitical unrest

Investors consider geopolitical tensions in Northeast Asia amidst another week of corporate earnings and other economic releases.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Corporate earnings could drive market pricing this week

Forward-looking investors and firm managers will closely focus on the first look at Q1 2017 corporate earnings in the week ahead.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Flat sales for auto sector, while manufacturing shows modest rebound

Inventories remain elevated in the auto sector posing a risk, while a modest rebound in national manufacturing conditions continues.

March 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Is consumer confidence softening?

Focus turns to the growing differences between soft sentiment and hard data to determine direction of the economy in 2017’s first half.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Global and domestic policy rhetoric to drive market pricing

Investors will see top-tier data, G-20 summit outcomes and the expected announcement of the U.K.’s exit from the European Union.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Big week for financial reporting, budget news and policy

Investors should be setting up for a massive week in financial markets and policy across the international economy.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Jobs report could give green light for Fed

The week ahead will see a spate of first-tier economic releases. February jobs report expected to be the major market-moving event.

FEBRUARY 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

First-tier economic releases and policy talk this week

Financial markets will get first-tier economic releases and policy talk from an array of elected and appointed political representatives.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Differentiate noise from signal when it comes to jobless claims

Investors should differentiate noise from signal in the jobless claims numbers due to the traditional holiday-induced distortions.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Fed forecast likely to point to sustained gains

The Federal Reserve points toward an upgrade on growth and employment in line with the recent Federal Open Market Committee statement.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investing in uncertain times

What are the implications for your investment strategy? Prudent financial planning requires focusing on the things you can control.

  • Michael Montag
  • |
  • February 06, 2017

JANUARY 2017

INSIGHT ARTICLE

Section 7520 rate ticks up, will proposals trump sound planning?

With the estate tax part of a larger picture in flux, those who part with their capital today may experience not-so-sweet sorrow tomorrow.

  • Charlie Ratner
  • |
  • January 23, 2017

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors mull housing reports, consumer sentiment and Trump reform

Investors adjust to the Trump administration and the impact on business and investor confidence ahead of a year of anticipated major change.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Housing, industrial, consumer data this week, along with inauguration

Markets will be defined by a heavy slate of corporate earnings amidst a light economic calendar and a holiday-shortened trading week.

December 2016

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors await rate decision and fiscal policy direction

Investor focus will be placed on the Federal Reserve rate decision, its forward-looking forecast and Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference.

INSIGHT ARTICLE

November jobs report gives Fed ammunition for December rate hike

A robust November nonfarm payrolls jobs report will give the Fed plenty of ammunition to raise interest rates 25 basis points in December.

NOVEMBER

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Key Trump appointments, OECD news and fresh economic data set the tone

Investors will likely observe one of the more important forward-looking weeks for asset pricing this year. Learn more here.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Financial markets will likely see a quiet week

Look for a quiet week in the markets sensitive to policy announcements and personnel appointments from the incoming U.S. administration.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Eyes on market sentiment and policy direction after Trump’s upset win

Investors and middle market firm managers eye evolving market sentiment and policy direction following the presidential election.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Presidential election dominates price action

What possible affect does the presidential election have on equity, bond and currency values this week? Learn more.

OCTOBER

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors remain cautious pending the presidential election

Investors will likely move cautiously ahead of an eventful week of data releases and the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Earnings releases and election impact on the minds of investors

Focus will be on corporate earnings releases, the presidential election and direction of growth in the domestic economy.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors weigh manufacturing, consumer pricing and housing outlooks

The week ahead in global financial markets will see a rash of first-tier data published from the major developed economies.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Yellen and retail sales could set the tone this week

Forward-looking investors will be interpreting a spate of Federal Reserve rhetoric as well as data on inflation, labor and retail sales.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Labor data to drive asset pricing

Eyes on auto and service sales, manufacturing and labor data as the market assesses a possible Federal Reserve rate hike to close out 2016.

SEPTEMBER

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

New and pending home sales remain sluggish

A modest week of data is expected, primarily consisting of housing, durables income, spending and employment reporting.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Fed and Bank of Japan expected to issue rate decisions

Investors weigh policy and risk management this week as both the Bank of Japan and Federal Open Market Committee issue rate decisions.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors get a variety of domestic and global economic data to digest

Top-tier economic data will be released on retail sales, inflation, consumer sentiment, regional manufacturing and the global economy.

August

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Hints of a rate hike as well as plenty of first-tier data to mull over

Investors mull over hints of a rate hike and fresh data on consumer spending, auto sales, inflation, housing, manufacturing and employment.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Fed Jackson Hole symposium could shape investor sentiment

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is expected to discuss what a slower path of growth and a lower neutral interest rate means for policy.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Rate hike on the horizon?

Investors focus on the Federal Open Market Committee minutes and other economic discussions for indicators of an upcoming rate hike.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors look to data to confirm robust July job gains

Investors may place renewed emphasis on U.S. economic data after July’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy generated 257,000 jobs.

Global investors will get a chance to ponder major policy decisions

Bank of England rate decision and July jobs report among key events.

JULY

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors await corporate earnings releases and FOMC rate decision

Quarterly corporate earnings releases on tap and the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee rate decision.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Earnings to set tone in week ahead

First-tier corporate earnings featuring U.S. financials will set the tone in pricing across asset classes.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors will see a variety of economic data this week

Investor focus will be on a solid spate of first-tier data and earnings reports this week.

JUNE

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Brexit fallout to dominate week ahead

Given the general uncertainty over how the Brexit process will proceed, markets are likely to remain volatile across asset classes.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Brexit to drive asset pricing in week ahead

Britain votes this week whether to remain in the European Union.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

US economy set up for growth rebound

The economy is set up for a solid second quarterly rebound in growth, likely near 3 percent.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors assess the impact of sluggish hiring numbers

With the weak 38,000 increase in May hiring, investors will be closely watching for hints about rate path.

MAY

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

ECB and OPEC outcomes, plus employment stats, set week's economic pace

The week will be defined by the rate decision out of the European Central Bank meeting, the OPEC meeting and the U.S. employment estimate.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Will Brexit affect rate hike timing?

Risks around the Brexit vote are substantial and will likely push back any prospective rate hike into July or September.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Retailers, home building and inflation to define the week ahead

Investors will get a heavy dose of first-tier economic data amidst an equally busy slate of corporate earnings.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Noises and signals: Where’s the economy heading this week?

A light week of economic data and policy rhetoric will probably set the stage for a choppy week for investors.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Will weak global growth cause investor uncertainty?

Weak earnings reports from financials across the globe and soft manufacturing numbers out of China may dampen risk taking among investors.

April

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Soft consumer spending and growth may signal a slight economic decline

A slight downgrade in the economic outlook is expected on the back of a weak first quarter of growth and softer consumer spending.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Corporate earnings take focus amid light data week

Corporate earnings announcements are on tap as investors weigh the inability of oil-producing countries to reach a production agreement.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Inflation, customer sentiment and retail sales on tap for week ahead

Fresh information on inflation, regional manufacturing, jobless claims, consumer sentiment and retail round out the economic calendar.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Markets to digest strong job gains in light data week

Data this week include factory and durable goods orders, the trade balance, weekly jobless claims, wholesale trade and inventories.

March

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors will get a variety of data this week to mull over

Investors returned from a holiday-shortened week to observe an extraordinarily large number of first-tier economic data.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Growth this quarter helps reduce recession fears

Concerns about an imminent recession have faded as fundamental data points show roughly 2 percent growth in the current quarter.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Eyes turn to Fed rate decision, housing, inflation data

Investors will see top-tier data including a policy rate decision and new information on the housing sector, inflation and retail sales.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investor eyes turn to China’s worsening slowdown

Investors mull over the impact of another strong U.S. jobs report in contrast with the deteriorating situation in China.

February

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Crisis or correction for asset markets

Investors will see a heavy slate of first-tier economic data amidst the aftermath of the G20 and the Super Tuesday primary elections.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Could market volatility be calming?

Market volatility has calmed and both equities and oil look to be finding a bottom.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors await FOMC minutes amid increased market volatility

After continued volatility in global asset markets, investors look for any hint of additional risk emanating from the European banking system.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Investors expect news on global financial stress and policy rhetoric

Investors anticipate likely another bout of volatility in asset markets and policy rhetoric this week.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Indicators point to a challenging year for manufacturing sector

Investors monitor January manufacturing and employment reports to confirm the general slowing of economic activity.

January

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Possible rate hikes on the horizon

The focus this week will turn to the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee rate decision.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Light week for economic data

Light economic releases this week, thus the trend of asset markets following the direction of the U.S. dollar and oil will likely remain in place.

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY

Eyes turn to China as market turmoil spreads globally

Investors continue to monitor policy decisions and market action in China after a poor start to the year in U.S. equity markets.

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