United States

Treasury volatility returns as stocks advance


As we enter the spring and summer seasons and hopefully get back to some form of normalcy, investors will be keenly focused on consumer behavior and how fiscal stimulus and the easing of restrictions plays out in consumer goods spending data. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. GDP and thus will be a key component of the economic recovery. The latest retail sales report released in mid-February showed a 5.3 percent month-over-month jump in sales in January 2021. This far exceeded the forecast of 1.1 percent, perhaps indicating that stimulus checks are being spent and supporting the real economy.

Risks certainly remain as we navigate a post-pandemic “new normal”. That said, we remain generally constructive on markets in the near-term. Consumer confidence and robust corporate earnings, among other data points, appear to be moving in the right direction and support our view. We will keep a close eye on these trends as well as policy measures, both monetary and fiscal, that are key to the success of the recovery.

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Information in this document was prepared by DiMeo Schneider & Associates, L.L.C. and although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, RSM US Wealth Management LLC, DiMeo Schneider & Associates, L.L.C. and their respective affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or reliability and are not responsible or liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses from its use. Any such information may be incomplete or condensed and is subject to change without notice. The Frontier EngineerTM is a registered trademark of DiMeo Schneider & Associates, L.L.C.