The Real Economy: June 2021
Forecasting the dollar in a post-pandemic economy
THE REAL ECONOMY
The probability of the economy and financial markets returning to their pre-pandemic state is quite low. and nowhere is this more evident than in trying to estimate valuations of the U.S. dollar. Despite the robust rebound in consumer demand, a sluggish external sector and pandemic-induced economic distortions add a worrisome element to the breadth of the recovery and the value of the dollar.
In this month’s The Real Economy, we explain why we expect the greenback will experience volatility with modest downward pressure, causing it to decline against major currencies.
IN THIS ISSUE
A sluggish external sector and pandemic-induced economic distortions add worrisome element to the recovery and to the value of the dollar.
The pandemic and economic shutdown it prompted have injected an inordinate amount of noise, making policy judgments far more challenging.
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds approached 1.7% in May, within 20 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates.
While Gensler’s tenure as chair of the SEC is in its early stages, here is what we see as focus areas for the agency.
Cybersecurity in industrial environments has always been a concern, but the current cyberthreat landscape is making it a priority.
The survey of 404 senior executives reflected an optimistic outlook for the economy, predicting the most robust expansion in decades.