United States

Investor focus turns to economic growth estimates

WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY  | 

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It’s rare that technical reports around seasonal adjustments made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) draw so much attention, but during the past week investors have been drawn to increasing questions about the veracity of the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) guesstimates. Problems with residual seasonality on seasonally adjusted time series made during the previous three years have impacted past GDP estimates. Thus, when investors get the second guesstimate of first-quarter GDP this week they should take it with a grain of salt and wait until the BEA issues its revision on July 30 before drawing conclusions on the quality and direction of growth in the U.S. economy.

In addition to the GDP report, investors will get fresh information on the manufacturing sector, housing and consumer confidence. The Federal Reserve will send out five speakers to address the economy and monetary policy, including Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer who will address the topic “The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy.”

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