United States

EU elections: Five key events on the horizon

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Investors have been taken aback by a number of recent political outcomes. The first surprise came as Britain voted to leave the European Union (EU) in June 2016. The next came as Republican nominee Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States. The implications from these changes could be vast, but much is still unknown. As we await additional information to formulate the impact on risk and return from these events, it is just as important to keep our eye on the horizon for the next events that will unfold.

As Britain prepares to leave the EU, leaders across the continent fear contagion risk as others members could leave the bloc. Nationalist parties focused on immigration and sovereignty continue to gain support across Europe. Over the next 8-10 months, several elections may determine the course of the EU and whether it retains enough support to remain together. Below is a short summary of events to watch for their potential impact on the market.

December 2016

Austria

Bucking the populist trend, Austria elected centrist Alexander Van der Bellen on December 4. The defeat of Norbert Hofer, the Freedom Party candidate promising referendum on EU membership, alleviates pressure on the EU as it defends its membership ranks.

Italy

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi becomes the second European leader behind David Cameron to resign after losing a referendum vote at the polls. Renzi’s resignation comes after the Italian people rejected on December 4 a constitutional reform to reduce the number of seats in their senate. This opens the door for the Five Star Movement, a populist, anti-establishment party that has discussed a referendum on EU membership. Elections to replace the Prime Minister are scheduled to be held in February 2018.

March 2017

Netherlands

The Dutch take to the polls in March 2017. Should the Party for Freedom (PVV) win the majority, PVV leadership has indicated that it most likely will seek a referendum on the nation’s membership in the EU.

April 2017

France

It appears the final will see Republican and former Prime Minister Francois Fillon face populist National Front candidate Marine Le Pen. In the meantime, the French Socialist party will hold primaries in January to determine their candidate after current president Francois Hollande announced he will not seek re-election. The first round of the presidential election takes place on April 23, 2017, with any run off held on May 7, 2017. Le Pen is running on a platform focused on immigration, Islamist extremism and economic reform. She also has pledged to hold a referendum on EU membership.

August 2017

Germany

German chancellor Angela Merkel announced she will seek a fourth term as German chancellor. The election will be held sometime between late August 2017 and late October 2017. Currently, Merkel has maintained approval ratings of above 50 percent but could face challenges in building a coalition government.


This document contains general information, may be based on authorities that are subject to change, and is not a substitute for professional advice or services. This document does not constitute audit, tax, consulting, business, financial, investment, legal or other professional advice, and you should consult a qualified professional advisor before taking any action based on the information herein. This document is intended for the exclusive use of clients or prospective clients of RSM US Wealth Management LLC.  Content is privileged and confidential.  Any dissemination or distribution is strictly prohibited.  Information has been obtained from a variety of sources believed to be reliable though not independently verified.  Any forecasts represent median expectations; actual returns, volatilities and correlations will differ from forecasts. For more detailed information on forecast methodology and calculations, please contact our office for a copy of our white paper 10-Year Capital Market Forecasts. Historical and forecasted performance does not include advisory fees, transaction fees, custodial fees, taxes or any other expenses associated with investable products. Actual expenses incurred will detract from performance. Past performance does not indicate future performance. The sole purpose of this document is to inform, and it is not intended to be an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, or investment or service.  Investments mentioned in this document may not be suitable for investors. Before making any investment, each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based on the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives.   Information in this document was prepared by DiMeo Schneider & Associates, L.L.C. and although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, RSM US Wealth Management LLC, DiMeo Schneider & Associates, L.L.C. and their respective affiliates do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or reliability and are not responsible or liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses from its use.  Any such information may be incomplete or condensed and is subject to change without notice. The Frontier EngineerTM is a registered trademark of DiMeo Schneider & Associates, L.L.C.

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