Trade tensions and global uncertainties will continue to pose a challenge for major Western economies next year, with some economies faring better than others, write RSM’s global team of economists in their economic forecast.
In the United States, a modest economic tailwind fueled by expansionary fiscal policies and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve should help push growth to 2.2% in 2026, write RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and Economist Tuan Nguyen. The probability of a recession over the next 12 months has fallen to 30%, they write, down from the previous estimate of 40%.
Elsewhere around the world, RSM’s global team of economists offer these forecasts:
- Canada: As trade tensions continue to simmer, the economy will be limited to an overall increase in growth of 1.4%, Brusuelas writes.
- UK: A large fiscal contraction, combined with weak consumer confidence, will help limit growth to 0.8%, writes RSM UK economist Thomas Pugh.
- Australia: The economy will remain resilient amid global uncertainties, producing steady but modest growth of 2%, writes RSM Australia economist Devika Shivadekar.
Also in this issue, Brusuelas looks ahead to the Federal Reserve's December meeting. Investors are forecasting that the Fed will cut its policy rate, Brusuelas writes, even as inflation expectations remain well above the Fed’s 2% target. In addition, RSM US Senior Analyst Marissa Schlagenhauf examines how tokenization and strategic acquisitions have continued to accelerate across capital markets.
